YouGov’s tri-weekly federal poll shows no sign of movement one way or the other in the wake of the stage three tax cuts rearrangement, with two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 from primary votes of Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 36% (down one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 8% (up one). The poll also has a question on the tax cuts which finds a 69-31 break in favour of the changes over the tax cuts as originally proposed. Anthony Albanese’s lead on preferred premier has narrowed from 45-35 to 45-38 and his net approval rating is out from minus 13 to minus 16, with Peter Dutton in slightly from minus nine to minus eight. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1502.
Some notable electoral happenings at state level:
• There is the possibility of an early election in Tasmania as Premier Jeremy Rockliff pursues a demand that John Tucker and Lara Alexander, Liberal-turned-independent members who hold the balance of power in the lower house, agree not to vote for non-government amendments and motions. Further clarity may be provided after a meeting between the three at 1:30pm today.
• March 23 has been confirmed as the date for the South Australian state by-election in Dunstan, the highly marginal seat being vacated with the resignation on Tuesday of former Premier Steven Marshall.
• I also have by-election guides up for the Queensland state seats of Inala and Ipswich West, which will go to the polls concurrently with the local government elections on March 16.
After listening to oral argument in the SCOTUS this morning, I think that judging by the questions the Court asked, Colorado’s attempt to keep Trump off its presidential ballot is doomed. And it wasn’t only the six conservatives on the bench who asked questions that led me to said conclusion. If I’m right, Trump will take the decision as an indication that his lackeys on the US Supreme Court will overturn the DC Circuit Court of Appeals’ decision that held per curiam that he did not have immunity for alleged criminal acts committed while in office. However, even with this highly partisan and corrupt Supreme Court, it would have to pull out every trick in the book as the Appeals Court’s judgment more than covered every base in a most methodical and learned way.
https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/1AC5A0E7090A350785258ABB0052D942/$file/23-3228-2039001.pdf
Mavis,
The general American legal commentator consensus is that the SCOTUS will give the Trump team a bone with the Colorado case but rule against him in the Presidential Immunity case.
“The [YouGov] poll also has a question on the tax cuts which finds a 69-31 break in favour of the changes over the tax cuts as originally proposed.”
That result plainly excludes any ‘don’t know’ responses.
As it happens, a Dunkley seat poll (by uComms for the Australia Institute) found a 66-28 result, with 6% not sure.
Excluding the undecideds makes that 70-30 in Dunkley, consistent (for whatever it’s worth) with YouGov’s result for the wider population.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/09/dunkley-byelection-poll-stage-three-tax-cut-changes-cost-of-living-attack-ads
Repost…
You now have the potential crisis of a State saying our constitution gives us the power to make a decision. A power granted by the Federal constitution & we will exercise that power…
Does that mean the Supreme Court saying you can’t do that & WE will run your ballot for YOU.
The joys of a half baked Federal system… 50 countries inside 1 country… what could possibly go wrong. Solution … let Trump run & win, exclude him lawfully ( according to SC) on Jan 6 2024 …. then what
New election
Appoint the VP
Appoint Speaker of the House
None of the above
And.. quote..
The near-consensus is that state courts need not follow the rulings by federal courts of appeal.
1 State courts are coordinate and coequal with the lower federal courts on matters of federal law.
2 Only United States Supreme Court precedent binds state courts on matters of federal law. And state courts are supreme, even relative to the Supreme Court of the United States, on matters of state law.3
See this summary from the Georgetown Law Writing Centre
(https://www.law.uga.edu/sites/default/files/uploaded-files/Clutter%20WHICH_COURT_IS_BINDING_Painter-and-Mayer-FINAL.pdf)
(pp. 4-5).
Deciding who is on the ballot is a State Law…
The SC said that today
It’s a cluster fuck of the first order..
The Australia Institute / uComms Dunkley seat poll also found a Labor 2PP of 52-48 … albeit with a 3.9% margin of error.
(Again, for whatever that’s worth.)
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/09/dunkley-byelection-poll-stage-three-tax-cut-changes-cost-of-living-attack-ads
Tensions between Defence Minister Richard Marles and his department have erupted publicly after he declared Defence still had a “way to go” on achieving excellence, and he made no apologies for butting heads with military chiefs and mandarins.
Mr Marles confirmed The Australian Financial Review’s revelations of his frustrations with his department in an extraordinary parliamentary spray, as the opposition demanded Mr Marles lift his game, while industry warned squabbling over finalising a new list of planned equipment acquisitions risked sending contractors broke.
The Financial Review revealed a festering dispute between Mr Marles and his department, prompting a closed-door meeting late last year in which Mr Marles dressed down the top 25-30 Defence leaders, including secretary Greg Moriarty and Chief of the Defence Force Angus Campbell.
Asked in question time about the friction, Mr Marles said he was working co-operatively with senior leadership across the civilian and uniformed leaders on a journey of reform, before making clear there were shortcomings with the department. “I make no excuses or apologies for demanding excellence, and a culture of excellence in the Department of Defence and in the Australian Defence Force,” he said.
“And there is a way to go before we have that culture of excellence in the Department of Defence and the Australian Defence Force.”
Opposition defence spokesman Andrew Hastie said the Financial Review’s revelations exposed “dysfunction” at the heart of the Defence portfolio but stopped short of calling on Mr Marles to resign.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/marles-makes-civil-war-with-defence-chiefs-public-20240208-p5f3c5
Farmers are vowing to lock their gates against a “once-in-a-generation” infrastructure project connecting wind and solar farms to energy customers in New South Wales and Victoria.
Energy provider Transgrid has unveiled its preferred route for about 200km of the high-voltage VNI West transmission lines through farmland in southern NSW.
The route will connect Victoria’s transmission network, and the solar and wind projects that feed power into it, to NSW’s network, where dozens of renewables projects are in early stages of planning, before feeding that power to regional towns and cities on both sides of the border.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2024-02-09/farmers-divided-transgrid-vni-west-transmission-line-route/103435658
Oh, and the high minds at Advance Australia are framing the by-election as “not just about Dunkley”, but “a referendum on Albo”. “It’s us versus them”, no less!
‘The email warns the government “will go on releasing paedophiles and violent sex offenders from immigration detention” …’
Classy as ever …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/09/dunkley-byelection-poll-stage-three-tax-cut-changes-cost-of-living-attack-ads
CO2 ar Manua Loa on Feb 6 was 425.89 ppm, up 5.9 ppm on the same time last year. Ocean temperatures up about 0.2°C compared to this time last year. It would be a fair bet to say we’re in for a few more climate records this year.
Oliver Sutton,
That is Advance’s ‘Jump the Shark’ moment. The polling must be really bad for the Liberals to drag that crap up from the sewers.
C@tmomma:
Friday, February 9, 2024 at 6:10 am
[‘Mavis,
The general American legal commentator consensus is that the SCOTUS will give the Trump team a bone with the Colorado case but rule against him in the Presidential Immunity case.’]
I think that’s a pretty good call. And there’s a better than even chance that the SCOTUS will decline to hear the immunity from prosecution case due to the quality of the judgment of the DC Court of Appeals.
RP @ #9 Friday, February 9th, 2024 – 6:24 am
When you see the amount of CO2 being released into the atmosphere with all the wars going on right now it’s no wonder. Even though those atmospheric readings are probably historical to a great degree. Which may possibly, therefore, reflect the industrialisation of China period and their rapid expansion of Coal-fired power stations to power it.
Indeed, C@t.
Seat polling is notoriously shaky. And psephologists are rightly sceptical of commissioned polls.
But, subject to those caveats, the Australia Institute / uComms seat poll would offer a bit more comfort to Labor than to the Liberals.
Ad-rants Australia?
Good for Mr Marles standing up to the Defence Department. At least as it concerns procurement it seems to have been utterly disastrous. Leaving AUKUS aside, which probably is a bit of a nothing burger and seems to be a plaything of the politicians, there seems to have been repeat after repeat failures in defence procurement. Maybe Mr Marles knows whats coming down the line, or most likely not coming down the line given its Defence, and is trying to get ahead of it, but maybe with a bit of public calling out we might get some traction and reform in the area. Im not sure a big 4 consultant can help here but hooray for Mr Marles or DPM as he likes to be known by the Department apparently according to reporting.
I always knew that ‘Perfumed Warlord’ stuff about Richard Marles was a load of absolute crap. He’s doing exactly what all his critics here keep baying for. I won’t be holding my breath for them to apologise for all the unfounded criticism they have sent his way though. That would take backbone. *cough* Andrew_Earlwood.
Oliver Sutton @ #13 Friday, February 9th, 2024 – 6:33 am
Yep. All they need is 50.1% and 52%, even with all the caveats you have laid out, is good news.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/08/trump-supreme-court-colorado-ballot/
I personally think Trump should be allowed to run. But this just shows the hypocrisy of Republicans and MAGAs who hold up the constitution as sacrosanct and that amendments such as the 2nd must never be watered down (or whatever), but are quite happy to ignore this particular amendment because it doesn’t suit them.
Republicans the “party of the constitution”? LOL
If SCOTUS Won’t Enforce the 14th Amendment, We Should Worry How They’ll Handle the 22nd
The Court’s job is to play the role of Odysseus’s fellow sailors. Odysseus had his shipmates put wax in their ears so they wouldn’t be tempted by the siren’s song, just as our Framers gave the justices life tenure so as not to be swayed by the temporary passions of political majorities. So that he could hear the beautiful singing himself, Odysseus had his shipmates leave his ears open but tie him to the mast. Upon hearing the song, Circe warned, Odysseus would demand he be untied. It was at that moment, the goddess said, that his shipmates would need to yank the lash tighter.
“If the justices release us from the constraints we placed on ourselves in the 14th Amendment, limiting our own choices in order to preserve democracy, then our ship of state may, to quote Homer, “smash[] upon rocks as sharp as spears,” and our democracy may “join the many victims of the Sirens in a meadow filled with skeletons.”
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/if-scotus-won-t-enforce-the-14th-amendment-we-should-worry-how-they-ll-handle-the-22nd
We don’t ever see this quality of argument & writing on ant matter in Australia .. shame
A locally designed combat drone will receive a significant funding boost as the Australian Defence Force works to catch up with rapid advances in lethal unmanned technology across the world.
The Albanese government is today expected to confirm an injection of hundreds of millions of dollars into the MQ-28A Ghost Bat program, which is being developed by Boeing for the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) as well as possible overseas buyers.
First unveiled in 2019 as the Loyal Wingman, the drone uses artificial intelligence to target enemies and is designed to protect and support traditional military assets such as the F-35 in contested environments.
Inside RAAF ranks there has been some resistance from fighter pilots towards the introduction of uncrewed systems, but senior leaders insist the technology will play an increasingly important role in modern warfare. RAAF Air Commodore Ross Bender argues a large maritime nation such as Australia with its unique geography means uncrewed systems are a critical factor for military planners. “When you’re trying to cover right across from the Indian Ocean across to the Pacific Ocean you can only have a certain number of a certain aircraft, [and] can only go a certain distance in a certain time,” Air Commodore Bender told a military audience in the United States last week.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-09/funding-boost-for-lethal-ghost-bat-drone-project/103442292
C@tmomma @ Friday, February 9, 2024 at 6:43 am:
=======================
C@t, it’s been a good day for those who like to see the civilian government in charge over the military:
“President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi and appointed General Oleksandr Syrskyi in his place.”
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-dismisses-commander-in-chief-zaluzhnyi/
On the new CIC:
“During the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Syrskyi commanded the defence of Kyiv. In September 2022, he commanded the Kharkiv counteroffensive.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Syrskyi
Those would be the most successful objectives the AFU have accomplished so far this war.
YouGov’s tri-weekly federal poll shows no sign of movement one way or the other in the wake of the stage three tax cuts rearrangement, with two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 from primary votes of Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 36% (down one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 8% (up one)
—————-
Still low, 32% first preference support for Labor. Same, slightly lower?, that at the May 2022 election. People are disappointed how Labor refuses to help adults and children living below the poverty , students and young adults on big and often growing HECs debts.
And of course the growing homelessness problems. Labor had to be dragged kicking and screaming to increase their sneaky fund for investing for building affordable homes and a year later, maybe, have some money in another year, if the investment paid sufficiently, to have 6,000 homes built. But for who?
Albanese’s election night pledge of ‘ no one left behind’ is another lie. As there is no evidence of this in Labor policy.
Especially as poorer Australians are still being chased for Centrelink debts, not too dissimilar to Robodebt that Labor made such a fuss about under the Morrison government.
July 2023. Robodebt is dead, but Centrelink debt notices are still causing stress and confusion
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-19/centrelink-debts-still-cause-frustration-confusion-post-robodebt/102614538#
Modern Labor are chasing wealthier peoples votes. Only people they are interested in. And it is not working.
Australia scrambled to a one-wicket win with five balls to spare in their Under-19 World Cup semi-final against Pakistan at Willowmoore Park on Thursday.
Australia will meet India in the final at the same venue on Sunday. Tom Straker led a potent Australian fast bowling attack, taking six for 24 as Pakistan were bowled out for 179 after being sent in to bat. Despite 50 by Harry Dixon and 49 by Oliver Peake, Australia found themselves staring at defeat when they lost their ninth wicket with 16 runs still needed. Raf MacMillan and last man Callum Vidler saw Australia home, with MacMillan scoring the winning runs with an inside edge that flew to the fine-leg boundary for four runs.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
“Cyclone Barnaby’s war on renewables could put the wind up the Libs” writes David Crowe. He says that while the Nationals think they can shore up their support in the bush, Dutton needs more votes in the cities. A moratorium on wind and solar will not help the Liberals convince urban voters they are serious about climate change. It will not blast the “teal” independents out of parliament.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cyclone-barnaby-s-war-on-renewables-could-put-the-wind-up-the-libs-20240208-p5f3cz.html
Jim Chalmers and Tony Burke have done their internal standing no harm this week by delivering for the true believers, writes Phil Coorey who says it’s been a good week for the Labor base, and those who delivered.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/it-s-been-a-good-week-for-the-labor-base-and-those-who-delivered-20240208-p5f3bi
Jennifer Hewett explains why the PM looks confident for the first time in months, but she says, “The Labor government is as buoyed by its tax and industrial relations policies as the business community is aghast at the impact. But who’s listening?”
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/why-the-pm-looks-confident-for-the-first-time-in-months-20240208-p5f3d3
Voters in Dunkley have backed Labor’s tax cut package by more than two-to-one, despite the party facing a barrage of negative cost of living ads from Advance Australia. Paul Karp says that, according to a uComms poll for the leftwing thinktank the Australia Institute, Labor has its nose in front in the byelection seat 52% to 48% – although that result is within the poll’s 3.9% margin of error. The poll shows that two-thirds polled in Dunkley back the stage-three tax cut changes despite cost-of-living attack ads
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/09/dunkley-byelection-poll-stage-three-tax-cut-changes-cost-of-living-attack-ads
Michelle Pini tells us why the Coalition’s integrity doesn’t stretch to a $15 tax cut.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/why-the-coalitions-integrity-doesnt-stretch-to-a-15-tax-cut,18308
Waleed Aly writes that we have a habit of outsourcing very important things to profit-seeking businesses, then complaining when they behave like profit-seeking businesses. In the article he examines the insurance industry.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/insurance-inquiry-reveals-one-of-australia-s-greatest-paradoxes-20240207-p5f38m.html`
“For corporations, greed is good – so how can Australia really tackle price gouging?”, asks John Quiggin.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/2024/feb/08/for-corporations-greed-is-good-so-how-can-australia-really-tackle-price-gouging
Angus Thompson reports that bosses fear a new law preventing managers from contacting workers too much after hours will open the door to vexatious claims as the government vows to wind back the threat of criminal offences for employers who breach Fair Work orders.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bosses-fear-legal-minefield-over-right-to-disconnect-20240208-p5f3e6.html
New laws allowing employees to disconnect from work are a reflection of how the digital age has blurred the lines between employment and home, but the well-intentioned legislation has the potential to both help and harm, opines the SMH editorial.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-disconnect-laws-for-workers-could-help-but-also-harm-20240208-p5f3dq.html
The Albanese government will no longer say when it plans to release its review into reforming the aged-care system, prompting speculation it has been shelved until after the March 2 Dunkley byelection. Phil Coorey tells us that a source has said the recommendations, which the government said last year would be incorporated into the May budget, will be contentious, despite Coalition pledging in advance to give bipartisan support, so long as there was nothing resembling a death tax.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-delays-aged-care-review-ahead-of-byelection-20240208-p5f3bg
Michelle Grattan looks at how the Albanese government will respond next week to the latest Closing the Gap report.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-can-the-albanese-government-show-muscle-in-indigenous-policy-one-test-is-coming-next-week-223090
Victorian ministers airing their dissent for their leader’s decisions publicly signals a new era of debate and disobedience within the government, says Annika Smethurst.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/labor-s-long-term-gain-is-set-to-be-allan-s-short-term-headache-20240207-p5f38r.html
Amid the growing debate over the changes, NSW Housing Minister Rose Jackson has singled out local mayors for “playing NIMBY politics” ahead of the local government elections this year, adding that that some had engaged in “ridiculous, low-rent nonsense”.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/ridiculous-low-rent-nonsense-housing-minister-takes-aim-at-nimby-mayors-20240208-p5f3er.html
Lobbying is the scourge of democracy. Independent Senator David Pocock and MP Monique Ryan are pushing legislative reform to rein in the power of money in politics. Richard Barnes reports.
https://michaelwest.com.au/senate-lobbying-inquiry/
If ever there was a need for the legendary Murdoch muscle, it would be in the battle between the world’s media organisations and the generative AI giants, who are scraping editorial content to feed into their large language machines, writes Elizabeth Knight who refers to a beat-them-or-join-them moment for media companies, whose business models will be undermined if AI can use their content unchecked.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/the-thieves-and-counterfeiters-that-murdoch-is-looking-to-partner-with-20240208-p5f3hh.html
Businesses have been slashing employees’ work hours to trim their expenses and stay afloat as high interest rates and inflation dampen consumer spending. Discretionary sectors, where demand has declined most due to the cost-of-living pressures on household budgets, saw some of the biggest reductions in labour costs, but most industries cut their expenses in the last quarter, Westpac’s latest bank transactions data shows.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/businesses-cutting-back-workers-hours-as-economy-slows-westpac-20240208-p5f3gs.html
David Swan writes that, in its results for the six months to December 31 announced on Thursday, NBN Co said nearly 200,000 homes and businesses had taken advantage of a free upgrade to full-fibre NBN, with around 7000 customers per week placing fibre upgrade orders.
https://www.smh.com.au/technology/nbn-feels-the-need-for-speed-as-broadband-demand-outstrips-supply-20240208-p5f3cj.html
Defence Minister Richard Marles is preparing to announce a major overhaul of the nation’s naval fleet, which is expected to include gutting the troubled Hunter-class frigate program and the addition of extra maritime firepower. Matthew Knott tells us that over $50 billion of government spending is on the line, with some of the world’s biggest defence contractors jostling to secure lucrative contracts to build warships to replace the navy’s ageing Anzac-class frigates, while South Australia and Western Australia battle for the shipbuilding rights.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/frigates-in-firing-line-as-government-plans-naval-overhaul-20240208-p5f3g8.html
Andrew Tillett takes us inside the defence minister’s war with his department. He reveals that a frustrated Richard Marles laid down the law late last year in a closed-door meeting with senior defence leadership, including Secretary Greg Moriarty and Chief of the Defence Force Angus Campbell,
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/the-defence-minister-s-war-with-his-department-20240207-p5f307
The Australian Signals Directorate has joined a US warning that Chinese state-sponsored hackers are positioning themselves on IT networks in preparation for future disruptive cyber attacks “in the event of a major crisis or conflict with the US”. Joe Kelly reports that yesterday, Australia joined with its Five Eyes partners – the US, Britain, Canada and New Zealand – to release two public advisories that attributed the compromise of US critical infrastructure organisations to Chinese and Russian state-sponsored actors.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/australia-is-vulnerable-to-chinese-and-russian-hackers/news-story/86f6df2ea338c136acace5ac950de1b9?amp=
The US Congressional Budget Office expects the world’s largest economy’s deficits and debt to soar to record levels over the next 10 years, writes Stephen Bartholomeusz.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/america-s-fiscal-watchdog-sees-decade-of-spiralling-debt-and-deficits-20240208-p5f3bm.html
Farrah Tomazin reports that the US Supreme Court appears set to keep Donald Trump in the race for the 2024 election, warning that state-based attempts to disqualify him on the grounds he incited an insurrection could lead to “daunting consequences”. Is that because America is f****d?
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/daunting-consequences-us-supreme-court-sceptical-of-removing-trump-from-election-ballot-20240209-p5f3ld.html
More from Farrah Tomazin who says that a bipartisan plan to curb the record number of illegal immigrants crossing the US-Mexico border has been torpedoed by Republicans at the direction of Donald Trump, who plans to campaign on the crisis as he seeks to return to power. In a double whammy, the strike also impacts a larger emergency foreign-aid package to fund Ukraine’s battle against Russia, Israel’s war against Hamas, and Indo-Pacific security. MAGA madness!
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/republicans-sink-bipartisan-border-bill-at-trump-s-direction-20240208-p5f3b2.html
Cartoon Corner
Alan Moir
Cathy Wilcox
David Pope
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Mark David
Fiona Katauskas
Glen Le Lievre
Simon Letch
Jim Pavlidis
Andrew Dyson
Leak
From the US
(Bugger. I spent so long crafting my post on Kathryn Campbell that I missed the fact that William had started a new thread. So here it is. My apologies for its length.)
A few clarifications re the discussion about Kathryn Campbell on here last night.
Since the early 1990s, Prime Ministers have had the power to remove departmental secretaries simply by cancelling their contracts and paying them out. In the 2000s, departmental secretaries were given similar powers in relation to the senior executives in their own departments. Technically, the process usually takes the form of an “agreement to retire” on the part of the departing secretary or senior executive. On this basis, they receive a payout which some might see as generous, but which is relatively small in relation to their annual salaries when compared to the golden handshakes routinely received by private service executives. If the public servant is determined to fight it out, their contracts can simply be cancelled, potentially with no payout at all, but this rarely if ever happens.
I believe that these developments have been, on balance, bad for the nation, in that the public service now has less power to resist or modify bad policy ideas put forward by politicians. But I don’t think we’re ever likely to return to the days of all-powerful permanent heads of public service departments.
I have heard that, in his discussions with senior public servants both before and after he became PM, Albo was adamant that it was his intention to treat the public service with greater respect than had been shown by some of his Liberal predecessors: in particular, by resisting the temptation to make heavy use of his powers to move on departmental secretaries. He did seem to suggest during the election campaign that he would make an exception in the case of Phil Gaetjens, the Secretary of PM&C who, although he had initially come up through the ranks of Canberra public service, was widely seen as having nailed his colours to the Liberal mast since the mid-1990s. In the end, Gaetjens agreed to go on his own accord: probably through some sort of an agreement to retire, although he was reported by the press gallery (which has little insight into the processes involved) as having “resigned.”
As far as I know all the other departmental secretaries were retained by Albo, although Campbell was moved from her role as Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs (for which role she was a rather unlikely choice) to her AUKUS job, which was arguably a demotion in status but not, according to media reports, in salary: and rightfully so, because IMO the salaries of public servants should only be reduced through formal processes and not simply at the whim of politicians.
Whatever one might think of her (and I can assure you that I am no sort of a fan), Campbell was an apolitical public servant who had come up through the ranks. Albo therefore rightly chose to wait for the completion of the Robodebt inquiry, after which Campbell chose to leave the public service (again reported simplistically by the media as a “resignation”).
I am not Albo’s greatest supporter, but I reckon he got all of this completely right. Australia would not benefit from the US system in which there is a large scale turnover of senior officials following every change of government (which will soon become much larger if the likes of Senator JD Vance get their way). Nor do we need to have senior public servants fearful about threats to their financial well-being if they offend their political masters in some way. In such an environment, public servants are even less likely than they are now to stand up to bad policy ideas, and there will be many more Robodebts.
So good on Albo IMO.
Cat
Whilst day to day CO2 readings do jump around a bit, a 6ppm jump over 12 months is a real WTF moment. We can expect a further increase until late autumn when spring growth in the Northern hemisphere takes off but in the more than 3 decades that I have been paying very close attention to anthropogenic climate change the biggest year to year jump is 3ppm. Now I have an even grimmer view on climate change than Boerwar, glad I’m not young because the younger generations are going to be served a shit sandwich.
A question
Why is the ALP the focus of all attacks re the Middle East, where they subscribe to a 2 State resolution etc.
Granted they are the government
But the other side have called for the Australian government to stand shoulder to shoulder with one side to the enduring conflict
So why no criticism of that stance?
Just more Greens Labor bashing on behalf of their masters and donors, the Liberal Party and looking to wedge which is why the Liberals fund them
As they fund other minor parties
Thanks BK!
Here we go again: “But the other side have called for the Australian government to stand shoulder to shoulder with one side to the enduring conflict
So why no criticism of that stance?”
———————————————————-
But do the Greens actually support a two state solution? That doesn’t seem clear to me.
Meher
Good post, IMO. The corollary is that those who have a political interest in calling for heads to roll (Notably One Nation, the Liberals, the Nationals and the Greens) should do so with at least a token nid nod in the direction of due process. At least the Coalition is being consistent. They are head choppers. The Greens should at least fell conflicted here, after all, natural justice. But, with Shoebridge breathing down Bandt’s neck, cynicism rules.
‘Lobbying is the scourge of democracy. Independent Senator David Pocock and MP Monique Ryan are pushing legislative reform to rein in the power of money in politics. Richard Barnes reports.
https://michaelwest.com.au/senate-lobbying-inquiry/‘
—————————-
I guess that this means that Pocock will not be accepting a million dollars in donations for his next election joust?
‘RP says:
Friday, February 9, 2024 at 7:54 am
Cat
Whilst day to day CO2 readings do jump around a bit, a 6ppm jump over 12 months is a real WTF moment. We can expect a further increase until late autumn when spring growth in the Northern hemisphere takes off but in the more than 3 decades that I have been paying very close attention to anthropogenic climate change the biggest year to year jump is 3ppm. Now I have an even grimmer view on climate change than Boerwar, glad I’m not young because the younger generations are going to be served a shit sandwich.’
—————————————
Thank you, RP. Is there no chance that there is some measurement issue or some regional variation?
There are three bad aspects to all political polling.
1. If your sides polls go up it’s terrible because it might be a sugar surge, the team might be complacent and smug and really it’s only within the margin of error.
2. If your sides polls go down it’s disastrous because you’ve lost the Electorate, your politicians are incompetent and corrupt. But, it’s really only movement within the margin of error.
3. If the polls remain stationery it’s catastrophic because the voters are disenchanted with both sides, the country’s a mess and people don’t know which way to turn. But, it’s still within the margin of error.
You be the judge.
Tassie watch today.
The Mercury online has buried the story -meeting today.
Boerwar
That’s from the daily readings from Manua Loa so I doubt that that it’s a calibration problem. Readings can jump around a bit day to day but not enough to get that much of a jump. As I mentioned earlier sea surface average temperatures are 0.2°C higher than this time last year.
Given that of the last 15 El ninos 13 have had higher temperatures in the following year. I think that Jim Hansen’s predictions that global warming accelerated after about 2010 may well be on the money.
BW: “But, with Shoebridge breathing down Bandt’s neck, cynicism rules.”
God help us if Shoebridge ever becomes leader of the Greens. Bandt’s bad enough, but Shoebridge is the worst sort of silvertail leftie.
Thanks BK!
Meanwhile John Setka of the CFMEU will step down at the end of his term later this year
Boerwar @ #30 Friday, February 9th, 2024 – 8:09 am
This is a very good thing to have pointed out. Not as far as The Greens are concerned but wrt Peter Dutton and the Coalition generally. How often have we seen him demand that this or that Labor Minister resign, or that the Prime Minister MUST call an early election? This just demonstrates Dutton’s contempt for the norms of our democracy and is indicative of the way he would run the government, by virtual fiat. You’re either with him, or you’re against him, and if you’re against him, then you can head out the door. Plus he will throw the normal waiting times for an election in the bin, as calling for one now, indicates.
RP
“CO2 ar Manua Loa on Feb 6 was 425.89 ppm, up 5.9 ppm on the same time last year. Ocean temperatures up about 0.2°C compared to this time last year. It would be a fair bet to say we’re in for a few more climate records this year.”
Thanks, those readings are tragic. When I first started reading about climate change in the 1980s, atmospheric CO2 was 330 ppm, still below the 350ppm threshold scientists were trying to stop it reaching. Now it has blown past the 350ppm and 400ppm levels, both of which we were earned would have serious consequences in the 1990s.
Then Co2 was increasing 2ppm per year. Now it is increasing more than twice as fast (+5.9ppm/year). I doubt war is causing more than 1/4 of that. IT is mainly China and India burning a lot more coal.
Kyoto failed to generate action in the 90s and 2000s. Now Paris is failing, and we are headed for a terrible outcome. The honest experts will say they don’t know exactly what that will be, but the possibilities are bad.
Pied piper: “Tassie watch today.
The Mercury online has buried the story -meeting today.”
I’m no fan of the Hobart Mockery: I’m very busy these days and can rarely find the five minutes I need to read it from cover to cover.
But i don’t think they can be fairly said to have “buried” the story. There really isn’t anything new to report about it this morning. When there is, there will be lots of coverage.
I predict that the independents will cave in sufficiently to allow Rockliff to emerge from the meeting claiming a victory. I can’t see that it is in the interests of Rockliff, Alexander or Tucker to have an election now: Rockliff would most likely lose government and the other two would quite possibly lose their seats, and the attractive salaries that come with them. Kevin B will probably correct me, but I would expect that Alexander would be certain to lose and Tucker would face a struggle (albeit that, unlike Alexander, he does have seem to have some sort of a personal following).
meher baba @ 7.34am,
Soooooooooooo glad you wrote that post. Thank you for taking the time to do it. 🙂
c@t: “How often have we seen him demand that this or that Labor Minister resign, or that the Prime Minister MUST call an early election? This just demonstrates Dutton’s contempt for the norms of our democracy and is indicative of the way he would run the government, by virtual fiat.”
To be fair, it seems to me that both sides of politics have tended to make these sorts of calls during the heated debates of Parliament for as long as I can remember. The main difference nowadays is that ministers hardly ever resign.
Those CO2 readings at Manua Loa make the rally that the Coalition Climate Cranks spoke at the other day a shameful affair. However, as those politicians are shameless I can safely say that they don’t care. All they care about is pleasing their masters and mistresses in the mining community. The world can go to hell in a handbasket. There’s money to be made before it does! 😡
To be fair, it seems to me that both sides of politics have tended to make these sorts of calls during the heated debates of Parliament for as long as I can remember. The main difference nowadays is that ministers hardly ever resign.
To also be fair, mb, Labor Ministers used to resign, but then they saw that Coalition Ministers didn’t, so they thought, why should WE?
BK thanks for the morning roundup. On Defence and naval shipbuilding, there are lots of contradictory rumors swirling around. There was a contradictory one yesterday, quoting “industry sources” that the Hunter frigate program will be increased from 9 to 12 or even 16 ships. That seems fanciful.
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/naval/13569-surface-fleet-review-carries-hunter-class-changes-in-february-release-say-industry-insiders
IMO the Hunter program should be replaced or cut back to 3 ships at most immediately, as implied in the SMH article. BAE are further behind schedule and more over cost on Hunter than Naval were when their sub contract was cancelled. Even if the project was proceeding perfectly, it is the wrong ship for us. The critical question is what it is replaced with. This project was supposed to be providing Adelaide with >2000 jobs by now at ASC.
The desire to shift naval spending to Perth is purely political.
Cat
I complimented Marles yesterday when I saw the first reporting of the argument he is having within Defence. Defence has standards of project management and progress reporting well below those in other departments. It needs to stop, and Marles is correct to challenge Defence. Despite the current crisis, he should not give them a blank cheque as they will waste it once more.
I complimented Marles yesterday when I saw the first reporting of the argument he is having within Defence. Defence has standards of project management and progress reporting well below those in other departments. It needs to stop, and Marles is correct to challenge Defence. Despite the current crisis, he should not give them a blank cheque as they will waste it once more.
Yes, I noticed that and not having a go at you, Soc. 🙂
Today’s report leads me to believe that Richard Marles is doing what you have called for. I hope that is the case as well.
Socrates here’s a comment from a good friend of mine who has been selling and installing mass spectrometers for decades.
384ppm (measured on my kitchen table, but remarkably representative) back in 2014. Already exponential, but harder to see back then. These days the output numbers on the instrument GUI actually scroll upwards as you watch them – scary shit
From the farmers interviewed for the story, it’s basically that some welcome the income they will receive from hosting powerlines, while others have decided they don’t want them. Not exactly a farmers’ revolt against the powerlines carrying ‘renewable electrons’, which is what Littleproud et al have been claiming.
Cat
Thanks and agreed. The messaging of any change will need to be managed carefully. This is not Marles’ fault; he inherited this mess. But some people will lose their jobs and last time (2021) arrangements to redeploy shipbuilding workers when Naval was cancelled were a joke. The main beneficiaries were in Canberra.
RP
Agreed on climate change. I am quite pessimistic on it too now. I also think assumptions sea level rise will only occur on the time scale assumed in past IPCC reports are not as certain as stated. The reality is we don’t know how fast it will happen. We are probably already committed to +6 metres, the only question is over how long a period.
Citizen
I have worked on several wind farm projects. I have never seen farmers whose properties host the turbines and get the rentals income complain. IT becomes a tidy earner for them. The complainants are always others nearby who got no money out of it.
Farmers often claim or demand compensation when none is legally owing. I have seen this many times in my career, in multiple states.