YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)

Another poll finds strong support for the government’s stage three tax cut changes have not shifted the needle on voting intention.

YouGov’s tri-weekly federal poll shows no sign of movement one way or the other in the wake of the stage three tax cuts rearrangement, with two-party preferred unchanged at 52-48 from primary votes of Labor 32% (steady), Coalition 36% (down one), Greens 14% (up one) and One Nation 8% (up one). The poll also has a question on the tax cuts which finds a 69-31 break in favour of the changes over the tax cuts as originally proposed. Anthony Albanese’s lead on preferred premier has narrowed from 45-35 to 45-38 and his net approval rating is out from minus 13 to minus 16, with Peter Dutton in slightly from minus nine to minus eight. The poll was conducted Friday to Wednesday from a sample of 1502.

Some notable electoral happenings at state level:

• There is the possibility of an early election in Tasmania as Premier Jeremy Rockliff pursues a demand that John Tucker and Lara Alexander, Liberal-turned-independent members who hold the balance of power in the lower house, agree not to vote for non-government amendments and motions. Further clarity may be provided after a meeting between the three at 1:30pm today.

• March 23 has been confirmed as the date for the South Australian state by-election in Dunstan, the highly marginal seat being vacated with the resignation on Tuesday of former Premier Steven Marshall.

• I also have by-election guides up for the Queensland state seats of Inala and Ipswich West, which will go to the polls concurrently with the local government elections on March 16.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,480 comments on “YouGov: 52-48 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. “meher baba says:
    Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 10:03 pm

    Dennis Richardson strikes again. Not bad going for a bloke in his mid-70s.

    The next thing to check is what donations, if any, were made to political parties by the companies which have received close attention from Mr Richardson; and when they were made.

  2. Dr Doolittle @ #1423 Sunday, February 11th, 2024 – 10:01 pm

    ItzaDream at 9.44 pm

    Who needs to rely on the dubious sound quality of youtube when you can hear a real virtuoso at work? See:

    Concert on this Tue evening, starting 7 pm, tickets should be on sale an hour before. Venue: St Jude’s in Bowral. Program is the same as in Braidwood last night:

    -THE FOUR SEASONS 4 Concertos for Violin, Strings and basso continuo
    -Aria »Canzonetta« from the opera Don Giovanni
    »Andante cantabile« for Violoncello and String-Orchestra
    »Carnival in Venice« for Violin and Orchestra

    The lead soloist, Sergey Didorenko, started playing concerts with the main Ukrainian orchestra over 40 years ago, when he was 11 years old. The female violinist, Sylvia Hurttia, started playing violin in Finland at age 4, and regularly performs new Finnish works in her homeland.

    The only German in the ensemble, Thomas Grote, plays the Tchaikovsky beautifully. There is also a Spanish viola player who doubles as a baritone.

    If you know the local organisers, ensure they don’t rush up too soon after the Paganini performance, otherwise that could deny the audience an encore.

    If you must have youtube, here is maestro Didorenko playing the Four Seasons:

    Ah, yes. And there is an early autumn feel in the Highlands. At least it wasn’t at Chev. While we’re at it – I drove up to the big smoke this morning for a session on the Brisbane Ring, led by one of the major players. He tore it to shreds, despite credit where due. Confirmation bias for me.

    (disclaimer: I/we watch a lot of youtube. OH is a techie, and it’s up on the big screen with special sound system, you don’t need to know, but welcome to visit, most welcome)

  3. (no paywall)
    The Race to the Swift
    What On Earth Is Going On Now
    John Ganz 2 Feb 2024

    “I never thought I’d write the words “Taylor Swift” in a newsletter, but here we are. The fact is I’m not an expert in popular culture and I feel a little bashful even weighing in. My friend BDM’s Substack is the better place for the smart Taylor takes. However, I do write about the American Right and now they’ve begun to flip out over Ms. Swift’s relationship with Kansas City Chiefs player Travis Kelce. Now, on the face of it, conservatives should be happy about this. Here is a good-looking white woman, of very conventional gender presentation, publicly cheering, cheering her boyfriend, a good-looking white guy, playing football; he is, to paraphrase Lou Reed, the straightest dude I ever saw. Isn’t this what they want? Shouldn’t they just be able to enjoy this?

    No. Instead, it has resulted in an explosion of strange fantasies and fears among right wingers. They believe Taylor’s relationship with Kelce is some conspiracy against them and their champion, Donald Trump. Despite reports that Trump is jealous of Taylor’s popularity and wants to wage “holy war” against her, I’m not sure it will amount to much politically. I think it will likely fade quickly, just another one of the periodic psychotic episodes that we have to endure as a country in this benighted era. Some of it is just people dicking around: rolling out takes for takes’ sake or trying to sell something. Still, something about the psyche of the American right is on display here. And this is not just among the nuttiest of the nuts. Even the smartest and most respectable representatives of the right relate to this in rather peculiar ways.”
    taylor derangement syndrome
    on losing the normies
    BDM 4 Feb 2024

    “The funny thing is, if Taylor did decide to throw her weight around in 2024, it almost definitely wouldn’t matter. She has entered into politics in a major way twice—coming out against Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee and backing the Equality Act—and both of those attempts ended in nothing. She didn’t move the needle. She has basically backed off to reminding people to vote sometimes. Her cultural clout just does not translate over to politics. I do not think she could hand an election to anybody.

    Her fans will eagerly mobilize for her, whether for her perceived benefit and/or honor, but they will not therefore do whatever she tells them to do. It has to be about her. They will bring her the head of Kim Kardashian if they decide that’s what will make her really happy, they will switch in lockstep to buying and streaming new versions of her old songs even if they like them less, they will buy out anything that she wears, but it’s all very Taylor-centric. The only way you could maybe trigger major swiftie electoral energy is if you—I don’t know—declared a “holy war” on Taylor Swift, such that you basically made voting for Biden a stan war thing.”

  4. Every heart has a programmed number of beats.

    How you drive it determines when they run out.

    In other words, chill, and maximise those beats by staying healthy and fit.

    Something I’m not really doing good at this moment, but tomorrows another day!

  5. The problem with how many heart beats you’ve got is you don’t know till you get to the last one. As Mum used to say: ‘Itza, when you wake up in the morning, think today I might die. And one day you’ll be right.’

  6. For reasons too complicated to explain here I was once prescribed a drug that is also given to alcoholics to stop them drinking.
    C@t will likely know what it was.
    If you drink you will be sick, the doctor and the pharmacist both told me.
    Only time in my life I’ve gone a couple of weeks without a beer.

  7. Been There says:
    Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 10:32 pm
    Every heart has a programmed number of beats.

    How you drive it determines when they run out.

    In other words, chill, and maximise those beats by staying healthy and fit.

    Something I’m not really doing good at this moment, but tomorrows another day!


    Been There

    A couple of years ago I had a stroke and very nearly died. I’m ok now but what you said rings true for me.

    I’m now retired and enjoying my life and the things that are important – my wife, my children, and my cat.

    You are so right that, “Every heart has a programmed number of beats.”

    So, “The future’s uncertain and the end is always near

    Let it roll, baby roll”

  8. C@tmommasays:
    Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 10:29 pm
    Peter Dutton has questions to answer.


    Peter Dutton rarely appears at media studios that will likely ask him genuine questions.

  9. ”Peter Dutton rarely appears at media studios that will likely ask him genuine questions.”

    That’s been true for senior Liberals since Howard.

  10. Rainman, I respectfully ask you get a dog instead.

    I added a boisterous half Golden retriever, half maremma 8 week old puppy to our suburban plot a couple of years ago to add to a yellow labrador. Not a dull moment ever since. From destruction of property, the yard, the flair ups and potential for relationship breakdowns etc I’ve had it all with this half maremma farm dog. Live a little and do the same!

  11. One thing that entirely slipped my mind was that Wednesday night there actually was free flowing alcohol available at the Parliamentary Friends of Viticulture night! Cannot believe I forgot (didn’t attend).

    It started at 6 and went until 9, so plenty of time to begin and go back to the office for a drink before heading through Braddon (although I wonder why he didn’t just get the commcar to the door unless he went to the pub or Macca’s first).

  12. leftieBrawler says:
    Sunday, February 11, 2024 at 11:02 pm
    Rainman, I respectfully ask you get a dog instead.

    When I was a child, I had two older sisters who pretty much totally ignored me, so I was a pretty lonely kid. All I wanted was a dog. I nagged and nagged until my mother begrudgingly said I could have one for my tenth birthday (she hated animals). I used to walk the mile to the community library to read about dogs. I used to walk the old lady next door’s dog.

    One week before my birthday, an old mangy stray cat turned up in our back yard. My mother gave me a choice, the first real choice of my life.

    I could have this cat or I could have my dog. But if I chose the dog, she would take this cat and drown it right then in the laundry sink.

    That cat grew to like me but it hated my mother.

    And that’s how I became a cat person.

  13. Admirable story rainman. But if your mother threatened to drown the cat it says more about her than anything else. I have no time for cats personally due to the immense damage they inflict on our native mammals and birds.

    But drown one I’d never. See you think that the both of us here on PB are
    enemies, and yet I couldn’t picture either of us trying to drown a cat !

  14. Closing offer tonight for those interested in foreign policy

    This is a NZ lecture on British Foreign policy, called

    “The Strange Life and Death of Global Britain: NZ-EU-UK Relations in the AUKUS era”, with Ben Wellings (Ass Prof at Monash)

    Monash studies UK foreign policy and rhetoric. He makes the point that “Global Britain” and the language used at the time AUKUS was started has largely been dropped by the UK government. They don’t talk about it any more.

    With the sales pitch done, the UK is retreating back to trying to get back into the EU, after realising that BREXIT was a financial disaster for UK.

  15. Cornell Belcher writing for The New Republic that Democrats need to lean into making a pitch to voters of color.

    I am not saying Democrats shouldn’t compete strongly for this or any cohort of voters. Even improving their margin among white working-class voters by a few percentage points can make an important difference in a close election (and these days, they’re all close). But what I am arguing for is time and resource decisions based on reality, not romanticism. Let’s look at the data.

    In 2016, according to exit polling, Democrats lost noncollege white voters by a staggering 37 points. But surely with a working-class white candidate whose roots go back to Scranton, Pennsylvania, at the top of the ticket, they made significant inroads with this important cohort in order to win, right? Wrong. On his way to winning a 51 percent majority of the vote, Joe Biden lost working-class white voters by 35 points in 2020, according to the exit polls. And in the 2022 midterms, when Democrats were able to defy history and turn back the much-predicted red wave, House Democratic candidates still lost white working-class voters by 34 points.

    You don’t have to be a statistician to see the trend here.

  16. Leftybrawler @ 8.11pm
    Oh no, the saga of the North Sydney (Central Coast) Bears continues.
    Where is this mythical team going to be located 0r re-located?
    Who is going to finance another multi-million-dollar sporting franchise?
    Alas, the days of the Bears is dead.
    The Central Coast, the original dumping ground for this team has moved on.
    The young footy playing NRL supporters have no memory of North Sydney, lest of all their last premiership success in 1922.
    From my experience, as a primary school teacher, in many parts of the Central Coast the teams, they and their parents support are mostly Penrith, Parramatta, the Bulldogs and Newcastle.
    This may reflect the parts of Sydney where their families originate and the influence of the Newcastle Knights in the local, regional competition or the fact that children, like many adults like winners.
    A couple of well-attended NRL matches, each season, at Graeme Park is no guarantee that a rebadged Bears will be successful on the Central Coast.

  17. Let’s see how Peter Dutton goes trying to avoid accountability for his time as Home Affairs Minister today. Apparently Clare O’Neil needed to resign because some recently-released detainees went hog wild. So what should he prescribe for himself due to the crims,guns and money that flourished, with Coalition government funding, on his watch?

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