As we enter day three of the two-week early voting period for the October 14 Indigenous Voice referendum, the latest poll findings are as follows:
• This fortnight’s Essential Research poll contains an Indigenous Voice referendum result that is unusual in not finding yes in decline — no leads 49-43, which is in from 51-41 a fortnight ago. No includes 42% hard no and 8% soft no, while yes includes 30% hard and 13% soft. A question on whether respondents felt well informed about the referendum found effectively no change over the past month, with yes steady on 49% and no up one to 29%. Forty-nine per cent expected the proposal would fail, compared with 26% who expected it would pass.
• A RedBridge Group poll of 1500 respondents conducted from September 13 to 21 had no leading 62-38. Breakdowns for the three biggest states had no leading 58-42 in New South Wales, 59-41 in Victoria and 68-32 in Queensland.
• A Roy Morgan poll of 1511 respondents conducted from September 18 to 24 had no leading 44-39. Based on small samples, no led 42-40 in New South Wales, 49-31 in Queensland, 46-30 in Western Australia, 48-36 in South Australia, while yes led 46-42 in Victoria. The negligible sample of Tasmanian respondents broke 56-43 to yes.
• With all the latest numbers added, the poll tracker being conducted by Professor Simon Jackman for the ABC currently has no leading 58-42. Jackman’s highly sophisticated methods are explained in detail here.
UPDATE: And now a poll from YouGov, which is no longer involved with Newspoll but from which I am told we can expect a fair bit of independently conducted polling in future, a finding that no leads 53-38. It comes, furthermore, with voting intention results showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1563.
‘FUBAR says:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 12:52 am
Stolen generation – States issue, not Federal.
Deaths in Custody- States issue, not Federal (and similar rate to non-Aboriginal)
Juukan Gorge – States issue, not Federal.
The vast majority of issues impacting on Aboriginals are State and Local Government issues – not Federal ones.’
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Why do the No bullshit with such energy and such ignorance?
Stolen generations (not singular – it went on for many, many decades).
(1) The Feds ran the NT and stole kids.
(2) The Feds have international human rights obligations.
Deaths in custody
(1) The Feds have international human rights obligations.
Juukan Gorge.
(1) The Feds control export conditions.
(2) The Feds run national heritage.
(3) The Feds run Mabo and its consequences.
Indigenous people, in overwhelmingly numbers, have asked for a Voice to our parliament, because of the appalling failure of our current system to close the gap. Our current system doesn’t work.
Saying “no” to that because we “the constitution shouldn’t talk about race” is the least convincing No argument I’ve read.
It sounds like someone who wants to ignore Indigenous wishes, but needs the comforting delusion that their position is somehow anti-racist.
Doublethink indeed
The latest and greatest anti-voice brain-fart; Indigenous affairs are state issues. Here’s reality checking in :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_Territory_National_Emergency_Response#Legislation
But we already know that’s a red herring. It’s just another excuse dreamt up in order to justify an already established opinion. A smart person would look at evidence that directly contradicted their opinion, and modify their opinion based upon the new information. A person with critical thinking skills would ask themselves why they’re constantly feeling the need to think up new reasons to justify their opinion after their arguments continue being debunked. But they don’t do that, do they? They just keep on coming up with more and more different excuses that get debunked again and again and again. Like whack-a-mole.
The thing the no people really don’t want to tell you, is the actual basis for their opinion. There’s a reason for that.
It always puzzles me why racists don’t want to be labelled for what they are.
“I’m not racist, but…”. Um, yes, you are. Just admit it.
I originally thought Yes could defy history and win, by using a marketing campaign based on prominent and much-loved indigenous sporting identities. Clearly that was wrong-it looks very likely Yes will be heavily defeated in all states. It’s a disaster for indigenous Australians, for Albanese personally and for the ALP more generally. It must look to many working-class Australians, battling with higher costs at the supermarket and higher mortgages, like the Voice is a peripheral issue which does nothing to help them, and from their perspective unfairly advantages a group of people they are indifferent to or actively dislike.
It’s easy in hindsight, but the decision to go to a referendum, rather than just legislate the Voice, looks like a very poor choice. I know the arguments against legislating it, but it would have been created and operating by now, it would no longer be an issue, and the government could be seen to be focusing again on the issues which most Australians see as more important. Did Albanese really think that Dutton would offer bi-partisan support? Really? There are some decent people in the Liberal party-NSW leader Mark Speakman supports Yes. But to thinker that a wrecker like Dutton would support Yes was naive.
I think the other error was not adopting the Calma Langton report as the basis for the Voice. The criticism that the Voice was just a nebulous statement with no detail or structure could then easily have been shot down. Sure, Dutton would have attacked the detail of the report, but that I think would have been far less damaging.
The only positive I see is that Dutton reinforces his image (and reality) of being cruel, negative, a wrecker. That might please some on the far right, but surely it’s poison for Dutton and his party in the affluent, well-educated city electorates that were lost to the teals.
Yeah, It hasnt been a “state issue” since the 1967 referendum, and, like, NT isnt a state dude.
But look, if this was judged on quality of arguments, NO would be struggling for 20%.
Unfortunately it’s degenerated into a partisan bullshit fest, with our media deciding health professionals working in a remote communities and recommending YES vote are altogether less interesting than a bunch of clowns wafting smokescreens of incoherent nonsense for NOPE.
And in a way, they are less interesting. But maybe that wasn’t the point.
Anyway, watch the late swing to YES as people tune out to the self-contradicting, opportunist crapstorm of NO.
Claiming people will vote no because the cost of living is a more-pressing issue is one of the dumbest reasons I’ve heard.
How does this benefit me = the LNP voter mindset.
Lol, the bogans aren’t going to know or care what the Voice actually is, but they sure love them some sportsball.
Because Federal Government can intervene in the NT and ACT means bugger all to all the Aboriginals who live in the States.
Highlighting the Deaths in Custody Royal Commission just reinforces the point with no State having followed the recommendations in full.
I assume that FUBAR believes the National Indigenous Australians Authority and Registrar of Indigenous Corporations should be abolished because Indigenous affairs is a matter for the States.
Rewi, no, I believe that the public servants in that organisation should either significantly improve their performance in developing and delivering policy so that the billions they spend are actually effectively spent. If they can’t do that then they need to be performance managed like most employees in Australia are when they fail.
The best way to ensure that money is better spent is to put Indigenous Australians in the driving seat through a Voice enshrined in the Constitution.
Exactly, Conservatives should vote YES because it will waste less money. And when you advise on policy, you also have to take responsibility for failures.
You can hardly call something which is advertised as “Subordinate” as being in the “driving seat”. I think this doublespeak is the root of the campaign’s weakness.
Compared to today, Watermelon.
It’s not the contradiction you make it out to be.
I think the campaign’s weakness has been much overstated – when really, it’s LNP wrecking that has been the main challenge.
If we see YES win in TAS, where senior LNP figures have supported it, this will likely become the accepted view.
Just put my tiny yes on the paper.
Dutton’s racist dog whistling on money going to only the most ‘deserving’ Indigenous people prompted an early vote.
The Voice, Makarrata and Treaty.
What frightens the Watermelons of the world is hearing what they do not want to hear, from people they do not want to hear it from, and to deal fairly with people whom, projecting, they despise.
which is exactly why the referendum council’s recommendation was to wait until the support of all major parties had been secured and there had been a major campaign to educate the public but what’s the point throwing blame now that three hundred million dollars has been wasted and the Voice killed off forever.
(I do promise to eat major crow if they actually turn it around and win in the next ten days.)
I’d forego you eating crow in favour of less crowing, but have to accept the things I cannot change.
Watermelon says:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 11:24 am
which is exactly why….
…what frightens the Watermelons, Fubars, Marks and Jeremys of the world is hearing what they do not want to hear, from people they do not want to hear it from, and to deal fairly with people whom, projecting, they despise.
So they talk about anything other than what keeps them awake at night.
The Voice wont be killed off, even in the event of a NO win. Some form of it is inevitable.
And when was this “all major parties onboard” deal going to happen? oh right, never. Not even under Turnbull, who now supports YES openly.
Sorry, but that was never a live option, so it doesn’t impress me as a road-not-taken.
Reactionaries are going to react.
Fear does that.
The more frightened they are, the more bullshit they spread to hide the fear.
There is nothing quite as pathetic as a human motivated by a mix of gutless fear and bluster combined with unctuousness.
Dutton has called for a national audit of the hundreds of billions in direct subsidies, tax breaks and dirty money that are going to Australia’s least deserving wealthy.
He is not a total soul less dead-eyed deadbeat. He timed this evil bit of racist dog whistling for just before the Voice referendum.
FUBARsays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 10:45 am
Rewi, no, I believe that the public servants in that organisation should either significantly improve their performance in developing and delivering policy so that the billions they spend are actually effectively spent. If they can’t do that then they need to be performance managed like most employees in Australia are when they fail.
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voting yes makes that easier.
FUBAR thinks that the politicians who wasted billions over ten years on everything in sight need to be managed out.
I agree.
Nothing to do with the Voice.
Just give the corrupt and incompetent arseholes the boot.
I’m 100% with FUBAR on that one!
One of THE antidotes to FUBAR’s deepest fears of corruption and incompetence is, of course,
Voice, Makarrata and Treaty.
Go FUBAR!
Nice try Boringwar. It is the Public Servants in the multitude of bureaucracies that have failed. Politicians and Parties come and go but the two constants have been the bureaucrats and the Aboriginal Leadership. The current disaster in the North Australia Aboriginal Justice Agency that the Auditor General and the Attorney General are refusing to investigate is typical of what has been happening for decades.
I would like to see a full Royal Commission into what has happening to all the money that has been wasted in Land Rights Agreements throughout the nation. Billions have been handed over and so little to see for it. Indigenous organisations going broke all over the place. What on earth are they doing?
That may be true but it was absolutely not the conventional wisdom at the beginning of the year. Whether or not it would have been futile to try and get Dutton on board, Albo didn’t even try. And given the history of referendums in this country, saying that there was no chance of bipartisan support is basically equivalent to saying there was no chance of a successful referendum, which may indeed be the case, and then raises the question of what is actually achieved by holding an unsuccessful one.
FUBAR is right to fear the Voice because it would expose Coalition corruption, incompetence and malicious behaviour towards those less fortunate.
Feckless, gormless, gutless and vicious.
The Voice would help expose the Coalition’s heartless kick down and kiss up tendencies.
Go FUBAR!
The way to deal with some of this routine vicious (and often racist) rot at the heart of the Coalition is VOICE, MAKARRATA AND TREATY!
‘Watermelon says:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 1:12 pm
And when was this “all major parties onboard” deal going to happen? oh right, never. Not even under Turnbull, who now supports YES openly.
Sorry, but that was never a live option, so it doesn’t impress me as a road-not-taken.
That may be true….’
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Dutton showed his true colours when he dog whistled the racist trope of money going to ‘only the most deserving’ Indigenous clients.
There never was a ‘may be’.
There was only a reactionary politician trying to ride to power on the backs of racist dog whistling.
Vicious? True. Nasty? True. Divisive? True. Deliberate? Of course.
The Watermelons of this world are mere connivers for the Duttons of the world.
No wonder these petty, craven hirelings are worried about the benefits of the Voice, Makarrata and Treaty.
These connivers fear and loathe truth itself.
FUBARsays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 1:05 pm
Nice try Boringwar. It is the Public Servants in the multitude of bureaucracies that have failed. Politicians and Parties come and go but the two constants have been the bureaucrats and the Aboriginal Leadership. The current disaster in the North Australia Aboriginal Justice Agency that the Auditor General and the Attorney General are refusing to investigate is typical of what has been happening for decades.
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This is where the voice becomes useful because it’s positioned to take a critical look at the government.
Where does “Voice, Makarrata and Treaty” come from? The Voice vote has been botched due to a political miscalculation and now all of those things are off the table for good.
Dutton, as a racist Queensland cop, was probably the worst LOTO for holding this referendum with, but Albo (looking at those early polls) seems to have thought it could be a good wedge and that Dutton would come out looking like an out-of-touch asshole like he did with SSM.
The voice has been actively attacked by the LNP using lies, misinformation and dog whistling to racists. And people like you Watermelon. You have been absolutely relentless in attacking the ALP for the promise enacting the Uluru Statement in the voice. Those are the people at fault here.
Stop trying to redirect blame to the people attempting to move indigenous reconciliation forward. Take ownership of YOUR actions. You’re kicking aboriginal people for political gain.
Fubar: “It is the Public Servants in the multitude of bureaucracies that have failed. ”
See what I mean? We now have a new excuse. Before it was about indigenous affairs being matters for the states. Now it’s about the public servants.
Fubar: “Land Rights Agreements”
The voice has fuck all to do with land rights. Land rights is about the equal application of the rule of law stemming from the high court decision on Mabo. Yet another example of the lies and misinformation of the no voters in order to justify their racism.
‘Watermelon says:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 1:33 pm
Where does “Voice, Makarrata and Treaty” come from?…
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Certainly not from racist dog whistling reactionaries who, driven by fear and loathing, chose this moment to demand an audit to ensure that money only went to the ‘most deserving’ indigenous people.
Of course the watermelons, FUBARs, Marks and Jeremys of this world are fine with this sort of racist dog whistling. They are, in fact, totally silent on it. They are conniving enablers of it.
Their disingenuous hand-wringing unctuousness is, of course, particularly pathetic.
“ The voice has fuck all to do with land rights.”
Most rational normal Australians would disagree with you. The Voice is about improving the socioeconomic outcomes for Aboriginal peoples. The vast amounts of Land Rights monies given to Aboriginal peoples are also about improving those same outcomes. To say they are not linked is as ridiculous as the claims the Yes campaign from the PM down made that the Voice would not be linked to Treaties.
This is a forum for political nerds who might want to sometimes think about strategy and tactics in addition to just principles.
I don’t think it should be out of line to find fault with a decision to charge up the side of a mountain against overwhelming artillery.
I am not “kicking aboriginal people for political gain” I’m questioning Albo for hanging aboriginal people out to be kicked in a referendum that will mark a monumental historic statement.
This referendum has actually been over twenty years in the making. Howard’s preamble was voted down, but the desire to amend it to include recognition of indigenous Australians remained a bipartisan project. Under Rudd and Gillard there were extensive consultations that formed the background to the Uluru process under Turnbull that led to the request for a “voice” to be part of any amendment. Turnbull instantly rejected the idea as PM, but has since come around after the Uluru voice idea was formalised by Labor as an instrument that could be entirely owned and operated by a future Coalition government. There is a version of the voice, and a version of a Coalition, which is compatible with bipartisan support.
The point is that the preparation for this referendum goes back over a decade and from the earliest stages the importance of securing bipartisan support was recognised. Is it too cynical to wonder whether the true bipartisan agenda was to scuttle this bothersome Uluru thing by holding a vote even knowing it was doomed to fail? Or did Albo, ensconced in his Grayndler bubble, actually believe the early polls and think this would be like the SSM plebiscite?
I don’t think it should be out of line to discuss these things in a thread devoted to the topic, what are we all here for anyway. It is certainly an interesting moment in Australian history and one can wonder how we got here.
With less than two weeks to go to the referendum, I thought that Anthony Albanese might take a risk, “take the ball up”, lose a bit of skin for the cause. But, it appears not. All I’ve heard about is his latest exploits at the Enmore Theatre, his playlist, and how he is going to have to make a phone call to get some Taylor Swift tickets for his son who is backpacking around Europe. It looks like he’s moved on. Put on the tee shirt, but don’t say too much, and certainly don’t talk about the consequences of a “no” vote.
Pi: ” The voice has fuck all to do with land rights.”
fubar: “Most rational normal Australians would disagree with you. ”
If you’re primed for lies and misinformation because of your racism you mean.
Literally ZERO.
Pisays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 3:53 pm
Pi: ” The voice has fuck all to do with land rights.”
fubar: “Most rational normal Australians would disagree with you. ”
If you’re primed for lies and misinformation because of your racism you mean.
Literally ZERO.
——————–
The voice would advise on any treaty so it might cover land rights issues.
And from the Betoota Advocate:
““Vote No To Division” Says Man That Spent $96M Making Sure Biloela Kids Spent Childhood In A Cage”
“Peter Dutton, the former Immigration Minister who oversaw the tortured and stateless asylum seekers who repeatedly lighting themselves on fire in his offshore refugee camps, and as the former Home Affairs minister who spent close to $96 million dollars to deport two young children from the rural Queensland town of Biloela.”
Voting “no” means you’re wrong and only “fair dinkum” when you get something out of it !
Voting “no” is “franking credits” involving people!
Voting “no” is 235 years of “unable to grow a pair”!
Australia has very little to show for 235 years of spending in educating people.
The No campaigner from today was a pleasant retired engineer. To my surprise he asked me if I knew when the Constitution started. He genuinely did not know.
He knew nothing about the Constitutional Conventions and that the participants were all white men of property (no indigenous people, no women, no worker class men) and that Section 51 (xxvi) is a “race” provision amended to include those of the Aboriginal race along with other races for which special laws may be required.
He was not aware of the Alfred Deakin assertions that the “aboriginal” race had died out in the south and would soon do so in the north and that by mid century Australia would have no hint of colour.
The real history of Australia is sadly neglected.
Pi,
Your arrogance is exactly the same arrogance that led to Albo, having decisively defeated the LNP, to announce in his victory speech that there he was going to hold a referendum without even engaging with the Opposition despite the fact that without bipartisanship it would fail. Did he expect total subservience? It appears he did – not one concession made to the Opposition. Not one. Just arrogance. Australians are exceptionally effective at dealing with arrogant F-wits.
goll – interesting that you are so comfortable supporting the Tamil Tiger parents – if they aren’t racist then I don’t know who is – the Khmer Rouge war criminals of Sri Lanka.
mexb: “The voice would advise on any treaty”
Bullshit. Landrights has to do with a treaty if anything like that ever happens. It has fuck all to do with the voice. Your argument is “They’re indigenous. Landrights are indigenous. The voice is indigenous. Therefore the voice is landrights.” It appeals to weak minds looking for excuses for their racism.
Lies and misinformation. The go to state for the racists.
Fubar: “Albo”
You want to blame everyone else for your racism. You live in a permanent state of pseudo-victimhood.
Fubar: “LNP”
The LNP made this divisive by rejecting it without ever even seeing it. A bipartisan convention started by Turnbull. Dutton lied about being asked to be included in the development of it. Lied about the legislation being presented to him, twice, leading to his own indigenous affairs minister resigning. And now lies about being consulted about it as a justification for rejecting it. He saw an opportunity to attack the ALP, and if he had to kick a few aboriginals to get that outcome, that’s exactly what he was gonna do.
And you’re doing exactly the same thing.
Fubar: “Tamil ”
We’re not talking about anyone elses racism; We’re talking about YOURS.
Watermelon: “I am not “kicking aboriginal people for political gain””
That is literally your modus operandi. You spend all of your time blaming the ALP for trying to move indigenous reconciliation forward, and none of your time blaming the LNP for dog-whistling to racists.
Watermelon: “one can wonder how we got here.”
By turning a blind-eye to overt racism for political gain.
No-one has yet told me how the non-racists can be separated from the racists that we all objectively know are on the same no side. They certainly don’t make any effort to disassociate themselves from one another. There’s a reason for that.
Pisays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 4:40 pm
mexb: “The voice would advise on any treaty”
Bullshit. Landrights has to do with a treaty if anything like that ever happens. It has fuck all to do with the voice. Your argument is “They’re indigenous. Landrights are indigenous. The voice is indigenous. Therefore the voice is landrights.” It appeals to weak minds looking for excuses for their racism.
———————–
The voice will advise on matters of importance to Aboriginal Australians and would be part of any treaty process and land management is important to Aboriginal Australians so land rights could be part of any treaty.
Mexb: “The voice will advise on matters of importance to Aboriginal Australians ”
But the voice has no power to implement anything, does it? That’s like saying the productivity commission, the business council, or the ACCC, is involved in landrights. They have as much power as any other advisory body on any subject. The implementation of any land rights requires legislation from the parliament or a decision from the judiciary. So it has fuck all to do with it. Stop trying to propagate misinformation. All you’re doing is muddying waters from your own confusion to run interference for the racists.
‘Watermelon says:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 3:07 pm
….
This is a forum for political nerds who might want to sometimes think about strategy and tactics in addition to just principles. ….’
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I look forward to your in-depth analysis of the absolutely sickening strategy and tactics of the No.
The latest – outright racist dog whistling is a sordid tactic of sowing division, racial hatred and kicking down envy. The reactionaries’ strategy is that principles can go and get fucked. Guess who falls into line? Watermelon. FUBAR. Mark. Jeremy. All that lot of gormless Dutton running dogs.
They are frightened witless of Indigenous people.
Pisays:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 5:08 pm
Mexb: “The voice will advise on matters of importance to Aboriginal Australians ”
But it has no power to implement anything, does it? The implementation of any land rights requires the legislation or the judiciary. So it has fuck all to do with it. Stop trying to propagate misinformation.
—————
I’m saying it will advise.
‘Stuart says:
Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 3:52 pm
With less than two weeks to go to the referendum, I thought that Anthony Albanese might take a risk, “take the ball up”, lose a bit of skin for the cause. But, it appears not. All I’ve heard about is his latest exploits at the Enmore Theatre, his playlist, and how he is going to have to make a phone call to get some Taylor Swift tickets for his son who is backpacking around Europe. It looks like he’s moved on. Put on the tee shirt, but don’t say too much, and certainly don’t talk about the consequences of a “no” vote.’
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Let’s hear from you for your darling Dutton. The man with the hollow heart and the dead eyes.
The one promoting racist dog whistling.
Or aren’t you interested in that?
OK with you is it?
How vicious is that?
How divisive?
Mexb: “I’m saying it will advise.”
It’s an advisory body. What the fuck else do you think it would do? The ACCC would advise. So would the productivity commission. So would the Business Council. The only power the voice would have is an opinion.