Click here for full display of Fadden by-election results.
Monday
Along with rechecking, a further batch of postals today broke 699-271 to the LNP.
Sunday
A second batch of postals was added today, breaking 1289-602 compared with 5601-2247 for the election night batch, or 68.2% for the LNP compared with 71.4%. Also added were 262 Special Hospital Team votes, which broke about evenly.
Saturday night
12.05am. End of counting for the evening, with the AEC having accounted for all available results on primary and two-party by the close of business. Around half of a likely final total of 16,000 or so postals have been counted, with the remainder accounting for all of a few of the votes still to come. Unless I’m missing something, that suggests a rather meagre turnout in the low seventies, compared with 85.6% in Aston. To that can be added an increase in the informal vote share from 4.4% to 6.2%, as compared with a stable 3.3% in Aston.
10.23pm. Large Helensvale pre-poll, with 11,918 formal votes, reports with par-for-the-course swings on the primary vote.
10.08pm. Labrador pre-poll has reported its TPP: 2.7% swing to LNP.
9.35pm. The Gold Coast North pre-poll booth — the one that did well for the LNP — is now in on two-party, showing a 6.3% swing to the LNP.
9.30pm. The Runaway Bay pre-poll becomes the third to report on the primary vote, and it’s a big one — 14,432 formal votes. Like Labrador (2544 formal votes) and unlike Gold Coast North (3435), the swings are more or less the same as the election day booths.
9.16pm. A second pre-poll centre, Labrador, has reported on the primary vote — whereas the Gold Coast North centre was better for the LNP than the election day vote in swing terms, this one is basically the same.
9.02pm. Bug fixed — no new results of consequence came in while I was doing it.
8.46pm. A minor bug in my results page: the projected swing is rounding to full (percentage) numbers and not the first decimal place as intended, so it flips between 2.0% and 3.0% as the projection falls below and above 2.5%. The actual projection is 2.51%.
8.45pm. The first pre-poll voting centre (Gold Coast North) is in, and the result is above-par for the LNP, their primary vote up 8.3% with Labor little changed.
8.15pm. After being solid for quite a while on 3.0%, my projection of the LNP two-party swing just fell to 2.0%.
8.10pm. David Speers on the ABC says Labor are projecting a 2.1% two-party swing, compared with my 3.0%.
7.56pm. Looking like a high informal vote rate of approaching 7%. This isn’t booth matched, but the informal vote for ordinary votes in 2022 was 4.6%. Compare and contrast Aston, where the informal vote was 3.3% at both the election and the by-election.
7.46pm. As Murray Watt points out on the ABC, the absence of the United Australia Party, who were worth 6.3% last year, needs to be taken into account in looking at primary vote swings. No doubt this explains the One Nation vote holding up, and probably hasn’t done the LNP any harm either.
7.38pm. Things seem to be settling in now: the LNP is up on the primary vote, Labor little changed, One Nation doing well to hold even amid a bigger field of candidates, Legalise Cannabis doing well to knock on the door of double figures, and a poor result for the Greens, who are probably losing vote share to Legalise Cannabis (who weren’t in the field last time). What might change all this is a different dynamic on pre-poll voting, which we won’t know about until a fair bit later in the night.
7.25pm. Good results for the LNP from Sanctuary Cove and Coombabah South push the swing out further, to what I’m projecting at 4.0% on two-party.
7.18pm. Now it’s clear everything is running smoothly, my obligatory request for donations, which you can make my clicking “Become a Supporter” in the blue band at the top of the page.
7.16pm. Four booths in now on TCP and my system is calling it for the LNP.
7.15pm. Six booths in now on the primary vote, coming in quick enough that I won’t be able to offer comment on them individually. The LNP’s good result at Pimpama East looks like an outlier amid an overall status quo result.
7.12pm. Studio Village in on TPP — 0.6% swing to LNP.
7.11pm. Greens running fifth, behind One Nation and Legalise Cannabis, both on double figures. Gold Coast not exactly a happy hunting ground for them.
7.09pm. Pimpama East booth is in, and it’s a bad result for Labor, who are down nearly 5% with the LNP up nearly 10%. My LNP win probability estimate is now out to 95%.
7.03pm. Another plug for the map display on my results page, which you can activate by clicking on the button at the bottom of the page. Numbers indicate the booth has recorded two-party preferred numbers, with the colour recording the party that won the booth (teal for LNP, red for Labor) and the number their share of TPP. Where only the primary vote is in, the dot is coloured to indicate the leading party. White dots denote no result yet. Click on whatever it is and a table will pop up showing full results.
6.59pm. Legalise Cannabis are on double figures, and One Nation are more than holding up despite more competition for the minor party vote.
6.55pm. The second booth to report on the primary vote is Studio Village at the southern end of the electorate, and like Alberton, it records little primary vote swing for either major party.
6.30pm. The TCP booth is now in from the Alberton booth (highly efficient work there) and it’s a 1.6% swing to the LNP. My projections will continue to work off estimates until the TCP count reaches 1%.
6.28pm. The booth interestingly has One Nation level with Labor, but this is a particularly weak booth for Labor.
6.24pm. Was being a bit conservative with my estimates of when results would start — there are actually some very small booths in the seat, and one, Alberton, has primary votes for us already. These show both major parties up slightly on the primary vote.
5.30pm. With half an hour to go before polls close, welcome to the Poll Bludger’s coverage of the Fadden by-election count. After polls close at 6pm, you will find through the above link live updated results, including full booth details in both tabular and map display (click on the button at the bottom of the page) and swing-based projections and probability estimates. This post will offer live commentary as the results come through, the first of which I imagine will be in a bit before 7pm.
Motormouth James McGrath going a million words per second. 😀
I stopped watching by-election vote counting on TV
Looks like The Greens standing hard against more housing for people isn’t going down well with the voters.
Ven says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 7:46 pm
I stopped watching by-election vote counting on TV
——————
Lol Ven
More to tge point, the Cats are giving the Dons a pizzling.
Welp the abc called it
Antony Green prediction at this point..
Voice vote is doomed in QLD.
Long term State Labor government and cost of living crisis is not helping ALP in Fadden.
Albanese should stop going overseas and concentrate on home front.
What he does for Ukraine doesn’t matter much for Australia.
Is it heretical to say that Letitia del Fabro didn’t strike me as a strong candidate for Labor?
Labor probably would be a little disappointed with this result – not that Labor had any chance but they probably would have hoped for status quo or a swing towards them. Imagine Dutton will overstate the significance of the result, though think it would be more interesting to test his support outside of Queensland.
”
C@tmommasays:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 7:47 pm
Looks like The Greens standing hard against more housing for people isn’t going down well with the voters.
”
I posted earlier that not only are Greens political party going down but are taking down federal AL with them and LNP is winning and laughing from sidelines.
#DuttMentum
I suspect capping the SMSFs at $3m lost it for Labor in the Boomer Gold Coast
mj says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 7:52 pm
Labor probably would be a little disappointed with this result – not that Labor had any chance but they probably would have hoped for status quo or a swing towards them. Imagine Dutton will overstate the significance of the result, it would be more interesting to test his support outside of Queensland.
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The LNP primary vote could end up, status quo as 2022 ,slightly higher or even slightly lower, the result wasnt a smashing endorsement for them in a safe LNP seat
Ven, you’re such a Voice of Doom! 🙄
C@tmomma:
Yes. You have been reported to party office, and will be burnt on a pyre at the next National Conference.
Perhaps the Greens should reconsider their fetish with destroying Labor and get to work on the Coalition instead. Aston and Fadden are pointers.
sprocket_says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 7:56 pm
I suspect capping the SMSFs at $3m lost it for Labor in the Boomer Gold Coast
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
And the LNP candidate being a swinger just rubbed it in?
Horrible result for the ALP, the overspending and mismanagement of the economy and letting the inflation genie out of the bottle have destroyed the ALP economic credentials. Australians are paying more for electricity, more on the mortgage because of the ALP mismanagement. More and more interest rate rises will be a disaster for Albo created by his own incompetence
There are congregations of rich retirees in certain electorates – the Queensland Gold and Sunshine Coasts, Cook, Lyne – they think Peter Dutton is the second coming..
William Bowe:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 7:32 pm
[‘ABC’s Casey Briggs can get high 40s based on current trends
Casey Schmasey. There are primary vote projections on my results page — I get LNP at 48.4%, up 3.7%.’]
Historically, the swing is almost identical to the norm since ’49 of 3.8%.
Even when Rudd carried QLD in 2007 the Lib 2pp in Fadden was above 60.
Dovif
I understand Albo will be tendering his resignation on Monday after this Fadden humiliation
Dovif says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 8:01 pm
Horrible result for the ALP, the overspending and mismanagement of the economy and letting the inflation genie out of the bottle have destroyed the ALP economic credentials. Australians are paying more for electricity, more on the mortgage because of the ALP mismanagement. More and more interest rate rises will be a disaster for Albo created by his own incompetence
————
You mean for the LNP the result in the by-election not that much better, when the federal Lib/nats federal government wass voted out for overspending and mismanagement of the economy and letting the inflation genie out of the bottle have destroyed the Lib/nats economic credentials
Labor’s overspending…A surplus in their first year after 9 LNP deficits?
Suzette Luyken ran for Legalise Cannabis in Gaven in 2020 (3.9%) and the senate in 2022 (5.74% in Fadden), so she’s a local with a bit of experience at it. LC outpolled Palmer in the federal election (despite his millions) and did quite well in some seats last state election, so it’s not just a one-off – they seem to be pretty organised.
The Greens have competition these days from little single-issue parties like LC and Animal Justice, same way Labor have had competition on their left from the Greens for a while. People on the left who don’t trust Labor enough to give them their #1 vote now have more options.
”
sprocket_says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 8:03 pm
There are congregations of rich retirees in certain electorates – the Queensland Gold and Sunshine Coasts, Cook, Lyne – they think Peter Dutton is the second coming..
”
To put them on spaceship of J so that they can go to heaven with out dying?
I thought Morrison was the second coming.
4.7% swing against the Greens – would have been more if the Greens convoy had motored up the Bruce in their Teslas to rub the Queenslanders nose in it..
LMAO, people need to chill out. It’s Fadden! This is a seat that happily re-elected Stuart “Professional Dodgy Guy” Robert six times in a row. What were you all expecting?
”
Scottsays:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 7:57 pm
mj says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 7:52 pm
Labor probably would be a little disappointed with this result – not that Labor had any chance but they probably would have hoped for status quo or a swing towards them. Imagine Dutton will overstate the significance of the result, it would be more interesting to test his support outside of Queensland.
———————————
The LNP primary vote could end up, status quo as 2022 ,slightly higher or even slightly lower, the result wasnt a smashing endorsement for them in a safe LNP seat
”
It should have been full on disendorsement after what Stuart Robert did.
I’ m sticking with my prediction of a 2% 2PP swing to the Coalition.
I am sticking with my prediction….. which I will tell you tomorrow.
”
Dovifsays:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 8:01 pm
Horrible result for the ALP, the overspending and mismanagement of the economy and letting the inflation genie out of the bottle have destroyed the ALP economic credentials. Australians are paying more for electricity, more on the mortgage because of the ALP mismanagement. More and more interest rate rises will be a disaster for Albo created by his own incompetence
”
LOL Dovif (and I am shouting that from rooftop, can you hear that?) 🙂
Ven says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 8:12 pm
It should have been full on disendorsement after what Stuart Robert did.
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It shows why the voting public are to blame as much as politicians ,
TK
Improves the confidence limits….
Looking at the Legalise Cannabis vote, it hasn’t all come from The Greens. Maybe some from the proto Libertarian UAP, who aren’t fielding a candidate this time?
It should have been full on disendorsement after what Stuart Robert did.
——————————–
A lot of what he did is an electoral positive with some demographics.
I suspect the swing against the Greens here has about as much relevance nationally as a swing against One Nation in the seat of Melbourne.
A 2.1% swing to the Coalition is a bit measly, tbh.
Yup.
Interestingly it would seem Stuart Robert actually managed to suppress the LNP vote.
And as for the winner, just what Australia needed, another LNP middle aged white guy!
Legalise Cannabis are only 0.4% behind One Nation, with the Greens back above 7% – it’s pretty likely LC will jump into third on Green prefs (nobody else has much over 1%, so those prefs will spray everywhere). Meaningless of course, but kind cool – have LC (or HEMP) ever come third anywhere before?
One the northern Gold Coast, the retirees venture out in the mornings to their favourite coffee shops. There they can read for free The Australian, the Courier Mail and the AFR.
If they have any mates, they can whinge about how Labor has trimmed their rorts – and rail against how Scomo pissed away the franchise.
But in their hearts, they know that Dutton is not the leader to bring back the swathe of southern blue-rinse seats lost.
Ven: ‘GC has become Florida’
Well, they both have a Miami.
A 2.1% swing to the Coalition is a bit measly, tbh.
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When you have just been kicked in the goolies then punched in the guts, a clip on the ear will feel like a back rub.
I am not sure it is possible to watch the Wallabies anymore.
Legalise Cannabis at 9.2% trouncing the Greens on 7%..
Adam Bandt needs to increase his tokes and drop the chumming up to the LNP..
Legalise Cannabis now bonging on at 9.8%
Man, if I had a dollar for every time someone on here predicted the imminent demise of the Greens based on them underperforming in a by-election in a seat they have never done well in.
Dovif says:
“Horrible result for the ALP, the overspending and mismanagement of the economy …”
Did you get your ‘Trillion In Vermillion’ mug from Josh?
Collectors items now, I believe.