Weekend miscellany: China polling, Voice polling and the future of Morrison (open thread)

Some recent attitudinal polling on various subjects, plus the latest speculation surrounding the likely next federal by-election.

Counting in Fadden ended last night with a 2.4% swing to the Liberal National Party, which you can read all about in the dedicated post and scrutinise in detail on the results page. Other items worth noting from the past week:

Matthew Knott of the Age/Herald reports that Scott Morrison had been expected to resign as early as this month, but that “some Liberal MPs” now thought he would remain longer “to avoid the perception he was being forced out by scandal”. Paul Karp of The Guardian reports the party’s state branch had opened preselection nominations for all sitting members’ seats, but had made an exception for Cook “due to the widespread belief that Morrison would retire mid-year if he found a private sector job”.

• The University of Technology Sydney’s Australia-China Relations Institute has published results from its annual survey on attitudes to Australia’s relationship with China, which among many other things found 49% rating Labor as the best party to handle policy on China compared with 29% for the Coalition, who in last year’s survey led by 36% to 35%. Thirty-nine per cent expressed satisfaction with Australia’s management of the relationship, up six, with 31% dissatisfied, down twelve. A question on whether Australia should “send troops” if China attacked Taiwan found 37% for and 35.5% against, narrowing from 39% to 34% last year. The survey was conducted in early April from a sample of 2000. A Lowy Institute survey recently covered similar ground.

• SECNewgate’s latest Mood of the Nation report, which focuses mostly in issue salience, has a question on the Indigenous Voice which finds support at 43%, down from 52% in April, and opposition at 34%, up from 26%, with 23% opting for neither, up from 21%. A forced response question on whether Australia is heading in the right direction broke 61-39 against, a sharp deterioration from 51-49 in April. Thirty-nine per cent rated the federal government’s performance as excellent, very good or good, down seven since April, compared with 60% for fair, poor or very poor. The poll was conducted June 23 to 28 from a sample of 2207.

• The regular Ipsos Issues Monitor issue salience poll, which asks respondents to name the three top issues facing Australia, found 68% including cost of living, having more than doubled since the end of 2022. Its nearest rival being housing on 39%, which began the year about ten points lower. The poll reaches 1000 respondents per month, the latest results combining polling from April, May and June.

The Australian reports C|T Group polling that finds 42% rating Anthony Albanese positively, 18% neutrally and 36% negatively; 30% rating Treasurer Jim Chalmers positively, 24% neutrally and 31% negatively; 23% rating Defence Minister Richard Marles positively, 27% neutrally and 26% negatively; and 31% rating Health Minister Mark Butler positively, 32% neutrally and 40% negatively. The polling was conducted May 29 and June 12 from a sample of 3000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

271 comments on “Weekend miscellany: China polling, Voice polling and the future of Morrison (open thread)”

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  1. Boerwar
    Corbyn gave Britain another five years of the Tories… catastrophe on top of catastrophe.

    I does sound like Starmer is sticking it to Trots. This may not be going down so well in certain Labour branches, especially up Islington way.

  2. nath
    Starmer seems to have abandoned every position he once espoused. Sounds like a perfect Centrist.

    You make it sound like a bad thing. It is almost like Starmer wants to govern for the majority of Brits, not just the Labour left flank.

  3. HH

    “ Shortcut teaching degrees are being offered to childcare workers so they can start teaching in preschools and primary schools within two years – and pocket a 66 per cent pay rise.”

    Reform is needed in tertiary education, but this is not how I would do it, at least to the extent I understand the field of teaching as an amateur.

    From what I have read the best performing education systems focus on more teacher training, not less. Finnish teachers do five years. This smacks of a short term fix.

    In my own field, engineering, I would like to see reform in the opposite direction. It would not cost more money, but would take more time. When I started working in the 1980s cadetships with government departments were common in many professional skilled areas. The cadet would typically work full time in the department and study at uni part time.

    The department would pick up the cost of the course, and the cadet would be paid a starting full time salary while studying. The cadet would take say six years to do a Bachelor of Engineering instead of four, but finished with a degree, some money saved, and no debt. This produced excellent quality graduates and they were useful employees in their departments by second year at worst. Several went on to become department heads.

  4. Mavis says:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:18 pm
    Arguably one of Handel’s best:

    What about some Fadden banjo music?

  5. “Dr Johnsays:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:24 pm
    Mavis says:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:18 pm
    Arguably one of Handel’s best:

    What about some Fadden banjo music?
    Dr John.

    Two extremes musically in Fadden.

    Tayor Swift and Merle Haggard.

    Very tough for Labor to win in that demographic!

  6. Anthony Albanese’s expansion of abortion pill access puts women at risk of complications, or even death, an obstetrician body says, raising alarm over the government not properly considering the unintended consequences of the policy.National Association of Specialist Obstetricians and Gynae­cologists president Gino Pecoraro said allowing nurses to prescribe the abortion pill would see “lesser trained practitioners” handing out the medication.
    “You can’t just start something like this, you have to have all the infrastructure in place to deal with all of the complications and it may simply be that it’s just not safe to do this everywhere,” he said. “I’ve seen first-hand what can happen. I think what we need are health solutions and what’s been announced is a political solution. ”The Therapeutic Goods Administration earlier in July approved an application from the not-for-profit pharmaceutical company MS Health to amend restrictions on the medical abortion pill MS-2 Step, which can be taken up to nine weeks from conception. As part of the change, nurse practitioners will be allowed to prescribe the pill and pharmacists will no longer need a “special certification” to dispense it. Dr Pecoraro said he had been called in to help save the life of a 40-year-old woman earlier this year who was flown in from ­regional NSW after being prescribed the abortion pill and experiencing significant side effects and bleeding. “She nearly died,” he said.
    “It’s a dictum in medicine that you shouldn’t be prescribing something if you can’t deal with the complications of it. I’m just concerned that on the surface this looks like a wonderful thing to increase access to regional and remote disadvantaged women … but the first rule has to be do no harm, and I’m not convinced we’re not going to do harm.”

  7. Dr John:

    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:24 pm


    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:18 pm

    [‘Arguably one of Handel’s best:’]


    [‘What about some Fadden banjo music?’]

    No, more Handle please. I’ve never hear of ‘Fadden banjo music’, classical music defying the ages. Pepsys.

  8. Mavis says:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:46 pm

    I’m also off to bed shortly and my music is friggin tinnitus.

  9. so wwp surely starmer is better then over 20 years of torey rulehavint they been in power since 2010 that makes it 17 years i know your a corbin fan Albanese has also changed many of his positions plus corbin appointed the people that under mind his 2017 campaign to the lordes thinking of ian mcnicole who he new undermind his campaign corbins just was not smart enough to clear out the hq

  10. so the hard left would prefer labor foor ever being in opposition then a centerist government it reminds me of the 1960s victorian labor party or the current dutton opposition better to stick to your values even if it meanes for ever being in opposition and able to achieve nothing

  11. Shogunsays:
    Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 8:10 pm
    Starmer seems to have abandoned every position he once espoused. Sounds like a perfect Centrist.

    You make it sound like a bad thing. It is almost like Starmer wants to govern for the majority of Brits, not just the Labour left flank.
    You never see conservatives dumping their beliefs to get with the majority.

    Can you imagine Howard or Abbott becoming Republicans because they think its what the majority want.

    It seems like another Blair is on the way. Murdoch will be waiting.

  12. Boarwar wrote, “Starmer is just the kind of hate figure that progressive pseuds don’t get. He will be the next PM and will have a majority of well over 100.”

    What a bold prediction. Yes, he will and noraml service will be resumed. what is the point of electiong a “Labour” government if the policies are the same as the Tories. Oh wait…wait, I get it… that’s the plan.

  13. It’s pretty clear that the Noms on this board would prefer a Tory victory, rather than a true leftist win anywhere. They are as fearful of real change as the chinless wonders of the Coalition. Got to protect those rents and all.

  14. The Age 16/07
    The lack of detail, and the lack of a timeline for the introduction of the reforms, has already led to some cynicism from gambling harm experts, particularly considering the historically cosy relationship between the Andrews government and the powerful clubs lobby.
    Can’t see it happening myself.

  15. GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: ALP 36 (-2) L/NP 34 (-1) GRN 12 (+1) ON 7 (+1) #auspol

  16. Popular support for Labor has fallen to its lowest level nationally since the 2022 election as the cost-of-living crisis begins to bite electorally for the government and voters swing to independents and minor parties.
    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows Labor’s primary vote falling two points to 36 per cent, marking its weakest result since it won office with base support of 32.6 per cent.
    The Coalition has lost ground nationally, falling a point to 34 per cent in the wake of damning findings levelled against the former Coalition government by the Robo­debt royal commission.
    The latest survey showed a three-point rise in support for minor parties and independents, suggesting a backlash against the major parties, which have been engaged in political battles over the voice to parliament and Robodebt for the past three weeks while failing to address voters’ primary concerns over the cost of living.
    Support for the Greens, which have been campaigning on rental pressures, rose a point to 12 per cent. Pauline Hanson’s One Nation lifted a point to 7 per cent; support for other minor parties and independents rose a point to 11 per cent.
    Preference flows from minor parties and independents, which has risen to 30 per cent overall, still strongly favour Labor, which has improved its two-party-preferred margin over the Coalition by two points to 55-45.
    The Newspoll was conducted between July 12 and July 15 and surveyed 1570 voters throughout Australia.
    The fall in party support for Labor follows a decline in Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings in the previous poll in June and which remain relatively unchanged at the lowest levels since he was elected as Prime Minister in May last year.
    His approval rating in the latest survey remains at 52 per cent while those dissatisfied with his performance dropped a point to 41 per cent, giving the prime minister a net approval rating of plus 11.
    Peter Dutton’s approval ratings fell two points to 36 per cent while his dissatisfaction rating remained unchanged on 49 per cent, giving him a net negative approval rating of minus 13.
    In the head-to-head contest, Mr Albanese lifted two points as preferred prime minister to 54 per cent while Mr Dutton dropped three points to 29 per cent.

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