Counting in Fadden ended last night with a 2.4% swing to the Liberal National Party, which you can read all about in the dedicated post and scrutinise in detail on the results page. Other items worth noting from the past week:
• Matthew Knott of the Age/Herald reports that Scott Morrison had been expected to resign as early as this month, but that “some Liberal MPs” now thought he would remain longer “to avoid the perception he was being forced out by scandal”. Paul Karp of The Guardian reports the party’s state branch had opened preselection nominations for all sitting members’ seats, but had made an exception for Cook “due to the widespread belief that Morrison would retire mid-year if he found a private sector job”.
• The University of Technology Sydney’s Australia-China Relations Institute has published results from its annual survey on attitudes to Australia’s relationship with China, which among many other things found 49% rating Labor as the best party to handle policy on China compared with 29% for the Coalition, who in last year’s survey led by 36% to 35%. Thirty-nine per cent expressed satisfaction with Australia’s management of the relationship, up six, with 31% dissatisfied, down twelve. A question on whether Australia should “send troops” if China attacked Taiwan found 37% for and 35.5% against, narrowing from 39% to 34% last year. The survey was conducted in early April from a sample of 2000. A Lowy Institute survey recently covered similar ground.
• SECNewgate’s latest Mood of the Nation report, which focuses mostly in issue salience, has a question on the Indigenous Voice which finds support at 43%, down from 52% in April, and opposition at 34%, up from 26%, with 23% opting for neither, up from 21%. A forced response question on whether Australia is heading in the right direction broke 61-39 against, a sharp deterioration from 51-49 in April. Thirty-nine per cent rated the federal government’s performance as excellent, very good or good, down seven since April, compared with 60% for fair, poor or very poor. The poll was conducted June 23 to 28 from a sample of 2207.
• The regular Ipsos Issues Monitor issue salience poll, which asks respondents to name the three top issues facing Australia, found 68% including cost of living, having more than doubled since the end of 2022. Its nearest rival being housing on 39%, which began the year about ten points lower. The poll reaches 1000 respondents per month, the latest results combining polling from April, May and June.
• The Australian reports C|T Group polling that finds 42% rating Anthony Albanese positively, 18% neutrally and 36% negatively; 30% rating Treasurer Jim Chalmers positively, 24% neutrally and 31% negatively; 23% rating Defence Minister Richard Marles positively, 27% neutrally and 26% negatively; and 31% rating Health Minister Mark Butler positively, 32% neutrally and 40% negatively. The polling was conducted May 29 and June 12 from a sample of 3000.