Counting in Fadden ended last night with a 2.4% swing to the Liberal National Party, which you can read all about in the dedicated post and scrutinise in detail on the results page. Other items worth noting from the past week:
• Matthew Knott of the Age/Herald reports that Scott Morrison had been expected to resign as early as this month, but that “some Liberal MPs” now thought he would remain longer “to avoid the perception he was being forced out by scandal”. Paul Karp of The Guardian reports the party’s state branch had opened preselection nominations for all sitting members’ seats, but had made an exception for Cook “due to the widespread belief that Morrison would retire mid-year if he found a private sector job”.
• The University of Technology Sydney’s Australia-China Relations Institute has published results from its annual survey on attitudes to Australia’s relationship with China, which among many other things found 49% rating Labor as the best party to handle policy on China compared with 29% for the Coalition, who in last year’s survey led by 36% to 35%. Thirty-nine per cent expressed satisfaction with Australia’s management of the relationship, up six, with 31% dissatisfied, down twelve. A question on whether Australia should “send troops” if China attacked Taiwan found 37% for and 35.5% against, narrowing from 39% to 34% last year. The survey was conducted in early April from a sample of 2000. A Lowy Institute survey recently covered similar ground.
• SECNewgate’s latest Mood of the Nation report, which focuses mostly in issue salience, has a question on the Indigenous Voice which finds support at 43%, down from 52% in April, and opposition at 34%, up from 26%, with 23% opting for neither, up from 21%. A forced response question on whether Australia is heading in the right direction broke 61-39 against, a sharp deterioration from 51-49 in April. Thirty-nine per cent rated the federal government’s performance as excellent, very good or good, down seven since April, compared with 60% for fair, poor or very poor. The poll was conducted June 23 to 28 from a sample of 2207.
• The regular Ipsos Issues Monitor issue salience poll, which asks respondents to name the three top issues facing Australia, found 68% including cost of living, having more than doubled since the end of 2022. Its nearest rival being housing on 39%, which began the year about ten points lower. The poll reaches 1000 respondents per month, the latest results combining polling from April, May and June.
• The Australian reports C|T Group polling that finds 42% rating Anthony Albanese positively, 18% neutrally and 36% negatively; 30% rating Treasurer Jim Chalmers positively, 24% neutrally and 31% negatively; 23% rating Defence Minister Richard Marles positively, 27% neutrally and 26% negatively; and 31% rating Health Minister Mark Butler positively, 32% neutrally and 40% negatively. The polling was conducted May 29 and June 12 from a sample of 3000.
More evidence of financial mismanagement by the previous federal government.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/conga-line-of-scientists-how-500m-went-to-winners-of-a-one-horse-race-20230619-p5dhnh.html
… “some Liberal MPs” now thought ]Morrison] would remain longer “to avoid the perception he was being forced out by scandal”…
He’s gonna need a bigger fig leaf.
C|T Group (as in Crosby | Textor) reports ratings of Labor’s senior ministers … but nothing to say about the Leader of the Opposition?
You might be interested in this, C@t:
Meredith Music Festival unveils Kraftwerk as 2023 headliner, opens ticket ballot
https://www.abc.net.au/doublej/music-reads/music-news/meredith-music-festival-kraftwerk-2023-line-up-ticket-ballot/102591140
Kraftwerk are returning to tour Australia this December
https://www.abc.net.au/doublej/music-reads/music-news/kraftwerk-2023-australian-tour-dates-shows-tickets-december/102586288
‘… 49% rating Labor as the best party to handle policy on China compared with 29% for the Coalition, who in last year’s survey led by 36% to 35%’
As Peter van Onselen would say: ‘Wow!’
Ipsos top five salient issues, with three to five being economy, healthcare and crime … ALP better major party.
Climate disruption at 10th.
Defence at 16th.
I note VTP&E is something like 17th.
“… the
party’s state branch had opened preselection nominations for all sitting members’ seats, but had made an exception for Cook.”
Scotty was chosen by God, you know.
What God has joined together, let no man put asunder.
Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dished out wild COVID-19 conspiracy theories this week during a press event at an Upper East Side restaurant, claiming the bug was a genetically engineered bioweapon that may have been “ethnically targeted” to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people. Kennedy floated the idea during a question-and-answer portion of raucous booze and fart-filled dinner at Tony’s Di Napoli on East 63d Street.
“COVID-19. There is an argument that it is ethnically targeted. COVID-19 attacks certain races disproportionately,” Kennedy said. “COVID-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese.”
Thanks for the heads-up, Pueo.
So Kraftwerk will be performing at Margaret Court Arena. Wonder if they’ll play Trans Europe Express there …
Arky (from previous thread)
‘Australia is also strongly pursuing relationships with Indonesia and India and has long had excellent relations with Japan despite what Japan did during the war. The common thread is democracy.’
Yes.
But doesn’t that actually support my point?
We are heavily favouring some democracies – who, in the last War, ditched us because their strategic priorities weren’t in our region – over other, nearer neighbours, who are also democracies.
They should call themselves, Kraftwerk 2.0.
Only 1 original member as well. Still, it’s computer generated, so it shouldn’t matter 😉
They should just go fully forward facing and put robot versions of themselves on stage. 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okhQtoQFG5s
so maybi mark speakman is resisting morrisons requests to run for now other wise the candadate is likely to be Carmellow pesce the local mayor sky news Andrew clanell reported that morrison is unlikely to resign unles speakman can be convinced to quit state politics
#weatheronPB
Light opens my eyes.
Golden shadows draw me out.
A slow clear day grows.
C@t: “They should call themselves, Kraftwerk 2.0.”
Indeed, now that they’re down to just Florian Schneider.
Likewise, 10cc, with only Graham Gouldman remaining from the quartet, should be 2.5cc.
Republicans on Friday rammed through the House a deeply partisan defence bill that would limit abortion access, transgender care and diversity training for military personnel, setting up a showdown with the Senate. The coming fight could imperil the crucial annual measure to provide a pay raise for troops, set defence policy to counter US adversaries and sustain Pentagon programs at a time of rising threats.
The House passed the measure on a vote of 219-210 with nearly unanimous Republican support, a significant victory for the far-right faction that forced a reluctant Speaker Kevin McCarthy to open the bill to an array of social policy prescriptions by threatening to block it if they did not get their way. But the move left the fate of the measure deeply in doubt, advancing a bill that has little chance of passing the Democratic-controlled Senate and raising questions about whether a compromise can be reached that could be enacted into law this fall.
And the outcome suggested even more intense battles ahead on Capitol Hill to avert a government shutdown. McCarthy’s capitulation to the right, despite knowing it could cost him critical Democratic support for the must-pass bill, was a gamble that could become a playbook for the coming fight over federal spending, where hardliners are pressing to impose similar socially conservative policies government-wide.
Some Republicans, particularly those in competitive districts, could also pay a political price for embracing legislation that would restrict the rights of women and transgender people and downplay problems of racism in the military. Democrats were already attacking them for having done so, highlighting the measure as a prime example of their argument that the Republican Party is extreme and out of step with the values of mainstream voters. Yet McCarthy defended the legislation, saying Republicans did “exactly what we had said we would do” by using the defence bill to try to force the administration to “stop using taxpayer money to do their own wokeism.” “A military cannot defend themselves if you train them in woke,” he added.
Democrats denounced the bill, accusing Republican leaders of having turned what began as a bipartisan measure into a hyper-politicised salvo in a wider culture war to please a small, right-wing faction of their party.
Terribly sorry folks, but I have only just got up after a very unsettled night with the back pain that has been with me for far too long. So, by t time I could finish animal duties and start to pull the Dawn Patrol together it would be too late.
I just saw Dutton refer to “Labor’s failed economic experiment”. What in the hell is he talking about?
It’s not ‘wokeism’, it’s tolerance. And what the Republicans are peddling is intolerance. 😡
I just saw Dutton refer to “Labor’s failed economic experiment”. What in the hell is he talking about?
________________________________
The ALP forking out cash to compete in the Fadden by-election…
Be kind to yourself BK. We’ll live. (And many thanks for your daily gifts.)
Dutton is speaking in slogan. It’s how he rolls. It has no basis in fact. ‘Coz I don’t know what is ‘failed’ about a $20 Billion Surplus!?!
Interest rates tripled under ALP. Bring back GOAT Frydenberg.
US Repugs curating the new recruits to those of like ideology in preparation for a coup.
While everyone has been worrying about ‘cost of living’, something sinister is creeping up on us..
A fierce anticyclone named after Cerberus, a three-headed monster-dog that features in Dante’s Inferno, had not even ended before Italians were warned that a more intense one called Caronte, or Charon, who in Greek mythology was the ferryman of the dead, was on its way.
Italy sweltered in temperatures reaching highs of 38C over the weekend, while Caronte will grip the country from Monday, sending the mercury beyond 40C in central and southern regions, with the islands of Sicily and Sardinia possibly hitting a peak of 48C.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/15/italy-temperatures-48c-mediterranean-heatwave-hotter
The Greeks know a thing or two about heat, and they know a thing or two about dealing with it. But last week saw heat of an altogether different order.
Temperatures were of such magnitude that they called for measures never before seen in a country that prides itself on being the first in Europe to have appointed an official dedicated solely to dealing with the challenges of global heating.
And so it was that at noon on Friday the Acropolis was closed in the name of “protecting” visitors from the sun. There would be other steps, both unprecedented and bold. Volunteers with the Hellenic Red Cross had been seconded to distribute free bottles of water, first-aid rescue workers had been dispatched to the site, and shading had been erected at the main entrance to the Golden Age temples. It was hoped the media could inform foreigners because it was a “very difficult” day.
In what would be the hottest day of the year – with the mercury hitting 45C (113F) in Syntagma Square and likely reaching 48C (118F) on the rocky outcrop on which the Acropolis stands – “difficult” soon resembled a war footing at the base of Greece’s most visited monument.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/15/acropolis-greece-closed-heatwave-48c
U.S. purchases decommissioned Taiwan’s Hawk air defense systems for Ukraine
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/u-s-purchases-decommissioned-taiwan-s-hawk-air-defense-systems-for-ukraine/
“The Phase III MIM-23 Hawk air defense systems will be sold to the United States.
Taiwan News reports about this with reference to the China Times newspaper.
The systems were decommissioned in June 2023.
The purchase agreement was preceded by consultations between the U.S. and Taiwanese governments.
The parties decided that the systems would be handed over to the Defense Forces of Ukraine.”
Palmer Report has a short story on T****’s pending indictments today. Palmer makes the case that T**** thinks he’s soon to be charged under the Insurrection Act or the Espionage Act. It’s a rollicking read and interesting for itself.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trump-appears-to-tip-off-that-hes-being-charged-under-the-insurrection-act/51171/
But like Palmer, I think what politicians say reflects what is on their mind in the moment but also how they care about it, the framing mindset. When T**** posts about President Biden, he’s comparing himself, President T****. When Dutton talks about a “failed experiment” he’s projecting from an LNP experiment. The trick is to spot which one.
So I hope this mornings red koolaid was sweet to the lips and numbing to the mind and soul:
I can’t believe someone here described the death and destruction of climate change, which we have known about *checks notes* since at least the early 1980’s where in Australia kids that got to watch Behind the News each week, were given an outline of exactly what the scientists thought, and *spoiler alert* they seemed largely right, but to describe climate change as “something sinister is creeping up on us.. on a board where those actually concerned about climate change are just constantly abused and mocked by those who seem completely unconcerned about its death and destruction (although like typical bullies and morons some were VERY concerned about being told they were unconcerned about a wave of death and destruction).
Anyway koolaid moment one, giving way to koolaid moment two, another in the seemingly neverending series of ‘how far to the right of Howard is this terrible far right wing labor govt’ is this little story from the ABC:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-16/terminally-ill-man-facing-deportation-after-visa-revoked/102563708?utm_campaign=abc_news_web&utm_content=link&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_source=abc_news_web
tl:dr
This guy came to Australia as a very young child in the 1970’s.
Went to our schools and lived in our economy, with our laws.
Suffered from our economy, lack of mental health and our idiotic following of the USA into a never ending, always losing war on drugs.
He committed the crime, he did the time. I don’t have any argument about that.
But having grown up here, from the mother country, educated by us, lived only in our community, dealt only with our economy and stupid drug laws, has a large family here.
Like any far right wing Govt the Labor Govt has this dying man locked up in immigration detention because, well there is no good reason at all, just far right wing Governments do this type of evil, and that is what the Labor govt is.
What makes it worse when Labor does this is it knows full well all that is wrong. I would not be at all surprised if he got a compassionate exemption now it has been in the media, so that the village idiots here can put releasing someone who should never having been in immigration detention on a listicle of red koolaid greatness. While those in similar unfair situations, being treated evilly by this sick far right Govt suffer on, because unless a sexy media stunt and koolaid listicles beacon this Govt will not do the right thing.
zoomster @ #1026 Saturday, July 15th, 2023 – 9:53 pm
That’s one of my main criticisms as well. PJK goes to it also.
We thoroughly enjoyed the 10cc concert at Thirroul recently and it was great to see such a wide range of ages. As was Rod Stewart’s concert , where I saw a baby in a pram to a couple with their walkers.
Unlike my first rock concert in Hamilton , NZ , where Billy Thorpe and the Aztecs only attracted the young.
Take it easy BK.
sprocket_ @ #24 Sunday, July 16th, 2023 – 8:26 am
It seems odd to me that people are more concerned about their “cost of living” than their “likelihood of dying”.
People would apparently prefer to be dead than poor.
Morning all. Best wishes BK. Take care of yourself and I hope the back pain subsides.
I avoid listening to Dutton, but if he referred to “ Labor’s failed economic experiment” I assume he means the consequences of the Scomo cash waste that he is now trying to blame Labor for. Presumably retaining Fadden, a seat the LNP has only once, briefly, ever lost, makes him imagine his message has cut through.
Fadden is not actually a bad result for Labor. The PV was down -0.4%, compared to a typical bi-election 5% to 6%. The 2PP of -2.2% is explained by the non-presence of minor parties and their votes shifting back to the LNP. The turnout was was down in the 70% range, which probably explained most of the shift. In a safe seat where everyone expected the LNP to win, borderline Labor voters did not show up for a bi election.
I’ve got nothing of worth to add to Arky’s excellent point from the end of the previous thread, just felt it deserved to be restated:
Why does Russia rely on railways, and what does it mean for the war in Ukraine? A good visual explainer..
https://youtu.be/Mi4GyLyHfH8
I was hoping that this government would be fairer to the likes of Richard Boyle and David McBride.
I’m hoping that they are taking baby steps so as not to frighten the horses in this and also immigration detention and asylum seeker matters.
Pleased that Dutton’s leadership has been ‘shored up’ in Fadden.
May he hold the position of Opposition Leader for many terms.
Holden hillbilly
“ Interest rates tripled under ALP. Bring back GOAT Frydenberg.”
I know you are only joking but Labor can’t keep reminding people too often that Labor got the budget back in the black by cutting all the Morrison rorts. Meanwhile, Abbott and Morrison between them tripled the modest debt they inherited from Rudd and Gillard. That is one of the main reasons it is difficult for Labor now to do much about inflation.
Reforms to break the power of monopolies to force prices up will work but will take time. Same with fixing the wage market. Labor just has to keep reminding people who broke the system, and that wages were going up when Labor was last in power.
…and I never said a thing about an alliance with China.
Arky lists a number of democracies there. India has a submarine deal with France, so there would be obvious opportunities to link up there (if we hadn’t ditched the French option); Japan makes its own submarines.
So the LNP spent 10 times more than Labor in Fadden, according to Chalmers. Sounds like they threw everything but the kitchen sink at the seat! Clearly desperate not to lose it much less suffer a swing against them.
Salon socialism a la Bliar’s New Labour downunder is just as crap this time around in the antipodes …, insufficient on inequality/ (social) housing, climate disruption, public health, powershift, governance (Ersatz NACC/ fICAC/ CIC, campaign finance reform, useful FoI, ), no wonder the Greens exist, same for other minor parties and independents in the centre or on the right
Though
Fadden seems to be a submerging problem, https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/11/153.4782/-27.9433/?theme=warming&map_type=multicentury_slr_comparison&basemap=roadmap&elevation_model=best_available&lockin_model=levermann_2013&refresh=true&temperature_unit=C&warming_comparison=%5B%222.0%22%2C%224.0%22%5D
“It seems odd to me that people are more concerned about their “cost of living” than their “likelihood of dying”.
People would apparently prefer to be dead than poor.”
It is the two denials and the dodge that are blinding people who might be expected to know better:
1. the original denial was timing, even going back to Howard people thought it was their great great grandchildren they were sentencing to death, not themselves or their children
2. no the denial is firmly grounded in wealth, it was always apparent but has become apparent even to the dullest village idiots that climate change will disproportionately impact the Global South, and we’ve always been happy to sentence kids in the Global South to hellish lives and early deaths so long as we get the new shirt from myer for 50c less. To our credit we pretended briefly to care when a factory of children burned to death while making shirts for us, but it was very performative and inconsistent with about 300 years of deliberate and considered exploitation.
Now the ever present dodge is ‘us doing it alone’ won’t make a difference.
Even now you see this idiocy sprouted here, where the change to renewables is a change to a cheaper better fuel that will improve our overall economy and largely divorce us from Saudi and Russian oil. It makes no sense at all.
Hadn’t ridden a bike for 30 yrs.
Invested in an ebike recently and can highly recommend if you are able. Brilliant.
It is not clever or smart or intelligent to support a political outfit that is aligned to the fossil fuel industry.
“It is not clever or smart or intelligent to support a political outfit that is aligned to the fossil fuel industry.”
Yeah, that is very clear, and it seems that is the only real explanation.
This tweet is worth repeating:
“White Anglo Queenslanders don’t watch the news, don’t read the papers except for Courier Mail and The Australian. Watch Sky news. Don’t think, don’t care about anyone except themselves. No empathy. Believe bullshit.
So we lose a pentecostal prick & gain a pentecostal pirate.
Joy.”
Newspoll is due , guess it probably wont look good nationally for the corrupt lib/nats and their propaganda media units
VCT Et3e @ #40 Sunday, July 16th, 2023 – 9:12 am
I think Albanese’s Govt is even more right wing than the Blairite govt.
Mark David
If you are a genuine progressive and wish to be a member of a local political party branch, you’d find more in common with the Greens party or Teal community Indy movement, than the Labor party.