Counting in Fadden ended last night with a 2.4% swing to the Liberal National Party, which you can read all about in the dedicated post and scrutinise in detail on the results page. Other items worth noting from the past week:
• Matthew Knott of the Age/Herald reports that Scott Morrison had been expected to resign as early as this month, but that “some Liberal MPs” now thought he would remain longer “to avoid the perception he was being forced out by scandal”. Paul Karp of The Guardian reports the party’s state branch had opened preselection nominations for all sitting members’ seats, but had made an exception for Cook “due to the widespread belief that Morrison would retire mid-year if he found a private sector job”.
• The University of Technology Sydney’s Australia-China Relations Institute has published results from its annual survey on attitudes to Australia’s relationship with China, which among many other things found 49% rating Labor as the best party to handle policy on China compared with 29% for the Coalition, who in last year’s survey led by 36% to 35%. Thirty-nine per cent expressed satisfaction with Australia’s management of the relationship, up six, with 31% dissatisfied, down twelve. A question on whether Australia should “send troops” if China attacked Taiwan found 37% for and 35.5% against, narrowing from 39% to 34% last year. The survey was conducted in early April from a sample of 2000. A Lowy Institute survey recently covered similar ground.
• SECNewgate’s latest Mood of the Nation report, which focuses mostly in issue salience, has a question on the Indigenous Voice which finds support at 43%, down from 52% in April, and opposition at 34%, up from 26%, with 23% opting for neither, up from 21%. A forced response question on whether Australia is heading in the right direction broke 61-39 against, a sharp deterioration from 51-49 in April. Thirty-nine per cent rated the federal government’s performance as excellent, very good or good, down seven since April, compared with 60% for fair, poor or very poor. The poll was conducted June 23 to 28 from a sample of 2207.
• The regular Ipsos Issues Monitor issue salience poll, which asks respondents to name the three top issues facing Australia, found 68% including cost of living, having more than doubled since the end of 2022. Its nearest rival being housing on 39%, which began the year about ten points lower. The poll reaches 1000 respondents per month, the latest results combining polling from April, May and June.
• The Australian reports C|T Group polling that finds 42% rating Anthony Albanese positively, 18% neutrally and 36% negatively; 30% rating Treasurer Jim Chalmers positively, 24% neutrally and 31% negatively; 23% rating Defence Minister Richard Marles positively, 27% neutrally and 26% negatively; and 31% rating Health Minister Mark Butler positively, 32% neutrally and 40% negatively. The polling was conducted May 29 and June 12 from a sample of 3000.
Zoom
“My main criticism of AUKUS is that we seem to be hitching our wagon to one dead and one dying Empire, rather than looking ahead. This is perhaps due to unconscious racism, which sees alliances with white, English speaking nations as the obvious option.”
On this and your other comments I am broadly in agreement. Both the politicians and senior officials in our defence establishment seem closely committed to a close relationship with UK and USA, but at the expense of other relationships.
The close relationship with UK is especially odd. The USA relationship offers the backup of a powerful Pacific presence, but the UK does not. Other former commonwealth countries have no difficulty sharing defence deals with non english speaking countries, but not us.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/07/india-to-procure-rafale-m-more-scorpene-submarines/
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 9:47 am
If you are a genuine progressive and wish to be a member of a local political party branch, you’d find more in common with the Greens party or Teal community Indy movement, than the Labor party.
_________________
At what point does someone who wants to be a member of a local political party branch work out that the Teal community Indy movement is not a political party?
Or do you know something we don’t, Rex? 😉
Can anyone confirm that Michelle Bullock is not Sandra’s sister?
There’s not a cigarette papers difference between the Albanese and Trump tax policy agenda’s.
“ The close relationship with UK is especially odd. The USA relationship offers the backup of a powerful Pacific presence, but the UK does not. Other former commonwealth countries have no difficulty sharing defence deals with non english speaking countries, but not us.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/07/india-to-procure-rafale-m-more-scorpene-submarines/”
________
This is entirely due to the Austral Britons in the RAN: especially best buddies and former midshipman-cadet class mates VAs Noonan and Meade.
In truth we have swapped a very sophisticated and realistic Australian-French-American submarine program (that could have been pivoted to a modern, yet mature Nuclear submarine with ALL of the American goodies we will end with if AUKUS subs actually happens) for a very very doubtful, risky and decades of delay Australian-British-American ‘plan’. At at least three times the cost and … check notes … decades of further delay.
Madness when you consider that an Australian-French-American deal would actually tie us closely to TWO resident pacific nuclear powers, whereas the Australian-British-American one … does not.
B.S. Fairman @ #52 Sunday, July 16th, 2023 – 10:02 am
Pretty certain she’s not ..
https://youtu.be/_rZGm5obf3U
And that, people, is why Labor ran a candidate.
Did Bob Carr’s piece on Taiwan and all things Defend Australia Fair get a run here? Worth a glance, for some more than others:
Taiwan solution is diplomacy rather than nuclear hell
https://johnmenadue.com/taiwan-solution-is-diplomacy-rather-than-nuclear-hell/
Samantha Maiden claims the Reserve Bank are ‘pompous’, in their dealings with the media.
Projection much.
Mavis or anyone else who follow Rugby union.
The Wallabies were flashier in attack, more menacing in defence and scored more points than against South Africa last week. They had changed the team, altered the game plan and upped the intensity. They broke more tackles and effected more too. They threw bold passes and made stunning busts. They improved out of sight. But they still lost to Argentina 34-31 to get alarm bells ringing louder.
https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jul/15/rugby-championship-eddie-jones-australia-wallabies-argentina-pumas-match-report?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16894629193218&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fsport%2F2023%2Fjul%2F15%2Frugby-championship-eddie-jones-australia-wallabies-argentina-pumas-match-report
”
sprocket_says:
Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 10:16 am
Samantha Maiden claims the Reserve Bank are ‘pompous’, in their dealings with the media.
Projection much.
”
sprocket
Aaron Newton was probably right about his analysis on Maiden. She might have hated Morrison and hence run hard against him but once he is gone she finds it hard to say anything bad about LNP.
WWP: “the death and destruction of climate change, which we have known about *checks notes* since at least the early 1980’s”
Svante Arrhenius’s paper was published in Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science in 1896:
https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf
We’ve known the science for five generations.
sprocket_ @ #58 Sunday, July 16th, 2023 – 10:16 am
Whatever else, her piss-take on Morrison was priceless, painting and miming a picture of this vacant eyed fat lump of lard being paid a couple of hundred thousand a year to just sit there contributing zip because he can’t get a job anywhere else.
Anastacia Palaszczuk dismissed the polling of this company as done by LNP insiders. Crosby Textor are known across the hemispheres as the conservative polling company of choice. In fact during the Howard epoch they had the comical character Dextor Pinion who spruiked the liberals with enthuiastic zeal such as ” Abbott the great”. On another matter,the Gold Coast result is a good one for Labor and will prevent hubris such as that which blighted the stratospherically popular Rudd government during its first few years , this was the Gold Coast where white shoes once ruled and the only race was between the Nats and the Libs with the more conservative money motivated Christians of the National party usually winning out ( Nats have since taken over the party in Queensland with only a few real liberals left in the state parliament). It may be getting closer to 1 million population but is not threatening to change it stripes anytime soon. Someone described the GC as the place where you run into the water to get away from the sharks.
sprocket_ says:
“Samantha Maiden claims the Reserve Bank are ‘pompous’, in their dealings with the media. Projection much.”
In the lead-up to the 2022 election, Ms Maiden made much of her insider contacts in the Liberal party, who were (she reported) optimistic about their prospects, despite the dire polling.
After the election Ms Maiden was mightily miffed to learn that she’d been led up the garden path.
Yes, Maiden’s rant about Morrison not understanding Liberal values was very revealing, I thought.
To my mind, he was very at home in the modern Liberal party, whereas Maiden seems to see him as an aberration.
On Taiwan, the status quo is ideal, given the unresolved nature of the most recent 1945-49 phase of the Chinese Civil War. Both sides get to govern themselves in their own territory, and both sides get to console themselves that they are the one true sovereign of the one Chinese state. All diplomacy from everyone else in the world ought to be directed towards maintenance of the status quo from both sides, until Beijing and Taipei can peacefully negotiate a more satisfactory resolution to their decades-old dispute. If the threat to the maintenance of the status quo is coming from one side in particular, global diplomacy ought to exert pressure upon that side to back down and accept the status quo (obviously, in reality, not in rhetoric). I view US and Australian diplomacy towards China on Taiwan through that prism. Any threat from either side (Beijing included) to use force against the other must be met with every tool of diplomatic persuasion and pressure which could get them to back off. Such tools must be of a de-escalatory nature, since the purpose is to defend a status quo, not to upend it.
Susssan Ley plans to visit 17 seats across four states in the final fortnight of the federal parliamentary recess to sprout “Albo-nomics”, another US Republican playbook theft.
“This is really tough, and we need a government with a proper plan”, she says, sending quivers up Labor’s spine.
Ven says:
Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 10:18 am
Seeing the promise of Carter Gordon these past two Tests is a silver lining.
“ I have yet to meet an Australian voter willing to go to war over Taiwan.”
So Bob Carr hasn’t met C@t. She’d set him straight if he had the pleasure, I’m sure.
______
Also, I am intrigued that Carr reckons that no Australian military leader has a clear role for australia in the event of conflict with china over Taiwan.
I would have thought that role was a no brainer: assuming that we in fact part of some US alliance, then regardless of whether we possessed nuclear submarines or not at the relevant time, our role should remain the same: protect the vital sea lanes through our archipelagic north, DENY the PLA-N access to those same sea lanes and protect the strategic spy-comms assets that we have on those ‘shared bases’ in the NT and WA; perhaps also protect any shared strategic air power bases as well, assuming we do indeed allow America to base their B1, B2, B21 and B52s at Tindal or Amberley.
Really, we would be ‘punching above our weight’ if we committed to those things (and actually acquired the requisite kit instead of prioritising the AUKUS folly).
In short there would be no need for the ADF to venture into the South China Sea, let alone the Taiwan strait for us to make a meaningful contribution: let America – with its 50 odd SSNs, and Korea and Japan (with over 50 modern SSKs between them) take care of that malarkey.
We should stick to our wheelhouse – a sophisticated and integrated A2-AD (anti access and area denial) network made up of satellites, over the horizon radar, long range surveillance planes and drones, and a thousand odd long range strike missiles on relevant naval and aviation assets. Backed up by an air defence missile network (which we simply don’t have at all right now, to the former Abbott-Turnbull-Morrison government’s eternal shame).
Maybe it is time to wrap up an entity called West Indies.
As cricket writer Peter Roebuck wrote There is no such country called West Indies no region called West Indies and no place called West Indies. It is colonial construct of British empire. They will do well playing as a separate country.
Recently They could not qualify for Cricket One day World cup against entities like Ireland, Netherlands and Zimbabwe.
They lost Test series against all Test playing nations in the world.
Their players have become hired guns in T20 format all over the world. Don’t seem to able to win as an team in T20 cricket format.
Now they lost the test match against by Innings in a Test match at home.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/india-in-west-indies-2023-1381201/west-indies-vs-india-1st-test-1381212/match-report-3
Princeplanet: “Nats have since taken over the party in Queensland with only a few real liberals left in the state parliament”
Fun fact: Queensland has never had a Liberal government.
Pre the shotgun marriage, the Country / National party was always dominant, with the Liberals the junior coalition partner (or, for one term, relegated to the crossbench while Joh’s Nationals governed solo).
In the LNP era they’ve had one term in government, led by the notional Liberal Campbell Newman. But that proved to be, as Peter Dutton might say, a failed experiment. For a while they even reverted to Joh’s successor in Barambah, Deb Frecklington, to lead the LNP.
Ven: “Their players have become hired guns in T20 format all over the world.”
As I write I’m watching Major League Cricket on Kayo. A T20 series played between American franchises.
I watched out of curiosity, expecting to see enthusiastic expats from the Indian subcontinent and Caribbean. But each team has half a dozen international players, including Aaron Finch playing for the San Francisco Unicorns.
Quite entertaining. The crowd, deep in the heart of Texas, is enjoying the spectacle.
Socrates says:
Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 9:48 am
Zoom
“My main criticism of AUKUS is that we seem to be hitching our wagon to one dead and one dying Empire, rather than looking ahead. This is perhaps due to unconscious racism, which sees alliances with white, English speaking nations as the obvious option.”
On this and your other comments I am broadly in agreement. Both the politicians and senior officials in our defence establishment seem closely committed to a close relationship with UK and USA, but at the expense of other relationships.
——————————————-
I think that nations, like individuals, are comfortable with what they know. Australians are essentially a conservative-thinking nation that has been lead by a ‘conservative’ government for a century that has strong historical ties.
These ties may not make as much sense in the 21st century but getting politicians to understand, adjust and embrace a new paradigm is a colossal task (I offer the Republican and Voice referendums as examples) beyond the emotional and intellectual grasp of most leaders or frankly, a lazy population.
I’m not sure what the answer is to this human conundrum but it’s a hugely complex task. I suspect it’s easier for governments to continue the current alliances based on historical trust rather than geopolitical circumstance. Perhaps defence and international relations, disciplines based on trust and shared values are areas ripe for disruption but only for a very brave government that I don’t expect to arise in my lifetime.
Despite all the chest beating from Marles and Chambers, there is an increasing nervousness in the Labor corridors. They remember very well the days of Rudd, his fall and the rise of a negative policy free opposition . There are strong similarities between Abbott and Dutton. The last election was lost by Morrison, it wasn’t a swinging endorsement of Albo. Albo won without any innovative policy or reform. The economy is in somewhat uncharted waters, part of it is outside the control of government but the sitting party will wear the damage of a recession, higher interest rates and higher unemployment. Labor holding office in all states can quickly unravel as it did last time, with Queensland already looking as good as gone.
Major League Cricket is being played at Grand Prairie Stadium in Dallas.
Wonder if they call the Hill there ‘the Grassy Knoll’?
This is a comment from LNP Fadden canidate Cameron Caldwell . Basically it’s code for born to rule.
“We are a party that must return to government in order to restore the faith that Australians have in government keeping their promises,” he said after his victory.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/7news.com.au/politics/federal-politics/labor-blow-as-lnp-opposition-secures-likely-swing-in-gold-coast-seat-of-fadden-in-by-election-c-11290824.amp
Major League Cricket crowd looks basically an expat Indian crowd (as in India – not Native Americans) … which is becoming the case around the world. One has to wonder what the worldwide Indian diaspora might be now.
Lots of Aussies playing in the comp though since it is off season for us (except for the test team)
More leadership changes by Russia in Ukraine include the removal of the 58th Combined Arms Army’s General-Major Ivan Popov and also Major General Vladimir Seliverstov who was removed from his post as commander of the 106th Guards Airborne Division of the Airborne Forces.
Together, the deaths of a number of Generals combined with the regular removal of several others over the past 18 months bodes poorly for Russia implying either problems with competency or loyalty.
The thing I don’t get with Major League Cricket is the teams are named after cities but they play in different cities. How are the teams supposed to get a following in those cities?
The USFL (a start-up spring American football league) does the same thing.
Thanks Cronus, at 10:52. Thoughtful. I stumbled over your words “a lazy population”. I think those words fairly go to the heart of any group of people. Though to be lazy must always to be seen in the context of what the opined thinks should be done. A brief chat this morning among my family covered a wide range of topics, including the mess in Europe, concluding that most people just don’t want to make themselves unhappy, and that’s why some topics aren’t popular, or remain private, or are easily papered over, including by shifting blame.
This Labor Govt is is in business for their fossil fuel backers rather than Australian households who are getting robbed blind.
Political Nightwatchman @ #75 Sunday, July 16th, 2023 – 10:56 am
The idea of “failing to keep promises” would seem to be a trigger. I got a flash of trip wires surrounding the Albanese government.
Zoomster,
Have a look at the economies of China and America RIGHT NOW and then come back and with a straight face repeat what you have said about which wagon is the right one for Australia to hitch itself to.
And I guess I must have imagined seeing China begging Europe not to abandon it at the ASEAN summit today.
Honestly, the China xenophilia around here is bordering on the ridiculous! People are ignoring reality and creating fantasies about China.
B.S.Fairman — my guess is that there are limited venues available that can prepare pitches suitable.
C@t: “People are ignoring reality and creating fantasies about China.”
🙂
C@
I didn’t mention China.
I suggest you read some of my other posts, too, rather than make me repeat myself.
The Coalition are the biggest election promise breakers unhung! Just more gaslighting and projection from Cameron Caldwell. I can see that he will fit in perfectly with Dutton’s crew.
Of course Fadden stayed with the LNP.
Like Florida, the Gold Coast probably hosts the biggest proportion of well-heeled retirees in the country — none of whom want Labor in power just in case they decide to stop all their perks that keep them well-heeled at the expense of the generations that follow.
I suspect the ‘cost-of-living’ argument only resonates because it eats into their nest eggs
JenAuthor: “the Gold Coast probably hosts the biggest proportion of well-heeled retirees in the country”
That may be a bit further south, around Byron Bay.
“Yes, Maiden’s rant about Morrison not understanding Liberal values was very revealing, I thought.”
Watched that Zoom. I am really fracking unimpressed by Maiden. Calling the Reserve Bank “pompous” is really the pot calling kettle black.
On Liberal values…… frankly i have seen little if any actual evidence that they have any beyond an over riding lust to be back in power and stay there. How dare anyone impede their capacity to rort and pay off mates !!!! Which is really just rinse repeat of their last term in Govt and “values” that Morriscum understands well. I mean he really needs the Libs back in power so he can claim influence and get a high $ “job” post politics.
…and, given that I didn’t mention China (because I wasn’t thinking China), it’s you who’s doing the fantasizing about China.
Fadden is obviously home to Nazis. We should invade.
“The idea of “failing to keep promises” would seem to be a trigger. ”
All the Libs seem to have on that theme are their myths about $275 power bill drops??
Zoomster,
I have read your posts, about India and Indonesia. However, what struck me as strange was that you didn’t acknowledge that the Albanese government is already strengthening economic ties with those countries? Also, why you seem to think that Australia can’t have ties with those countries, as well as with America? Or the UK for that matter, as the UK tries to carve out a place for itself post Brexit? Not to mention the distinct possibility that the UK will have a Labour government after the next UK election?
imacca says:
Sunday, July 16, 2023 at 11:33 am
“The idea of “failing to keep promises” would seem to be a trigger. ”
All the Libs seem to have on that theme are their myths about $275 power bill drops??
_________________
A shot across the bow with respect to reconsideration of S3 tax cuts methinks.
C@
I was talking AUKUS is why. My underlying suggestion was that these were the kinds of countries we should be hitching our defence futures to.
Present economic dominance isn’t as relevant when we’re talking decades in the future – ideally, you want to align with the countries which will be economically dominant in the middle of the century.
Which probably makes India the best fit.
Ron DeSantis, currently Trump’s top competitor for the 2024 Republican nomination for president, has reportedly fired 12 staffers and has plans to continue the trend.
DeSantis, who was recently asked by GOP officials in a Florida county to ban a vaccine as a “biological weapon,” has now cut several “mid-level” staffers as a means to save money, according to NBC.
“Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign has fired roughly a dozen staffers — and more are expected in the coming weeks as he shakes up his big-money political operations after less than two months on the campaign trail,” Matt Dixon, Allan Smith and Jonathan Allen reported Saturday for NBC. “Those who were let go were described to NBC News by a source familiar as mid-level staffers across several departments whose departures were related to cutting costs. The exits come after the departures of David Abrams and Tucker Obenshain, veterans of DeSantis’ political orbit, which were first reported by Politico.”
Also, I was making a general point by including China in the anti-Australian sentiment, and pro, anyone but Australia, commentary. Apparently, every other country people can think of here, is doing it better than the Albanese government. Just weird when you think about how well things are going here, when compared with other nations, except for, checks notes … America.
Guardian comments are open … for now …