Click here for full display of Fadden by-election results.
Monday
Along with rechecking, a further batch of postals today broke 699-271 to the LNP.
Sunday
A second batch of postals was added today, breaking 1289-602 compared with 5601-2247 for the election night batch, or 68.2% for the LNP compared with 71.4%. Also added were 262 Special Hospital Team votes, which broke about evenly.
Saturday night
12.05am. End of counting for the evening, with the AEC having accounted for all available results on primary and two-party by the close of business. Around half of a likely final total of 16,000 or so postals have been counted, with the remainder accounting for all of a few of the votes still to come. Unless I’m missing something, that suggests a rather meagre turnout in the low seventies, compared with 85.6% in Aston. To that can be added an increase in the informal vote share from 4.4% to 6.2%, as compared with a stable 3.3% in Aston.
10.23pm. Large Helensvale pre-poll, with 11,918 formal votes, reports with par-for-the-course swings on the primary vote.
10.08pm. Labrador pre-poll has reported its TPP: 2.7% swing to LNP.
9.35pm. The Gold Coast North pre-poll booth — the one that did well for the LNP — is now in on two-party, showing a 6.3% swing to the LNP.
9.30pm. The Runaway Bay pre-poll becomes the third to report on the primary vote, and it’s a big one — 14,432 formal votes. Like Labrador (2544 formal votes) and unlike Gold Coast North (3435), the swings are more or less the same as the election day booths.
9.16pm. A second pre-poll centre, Labrador, has reported on the primary vote — whereas the Gold Coast North centre was better for the LNP than the election day vote in swing terms, this one is basically the same.
9.02pm. Bug fixed — no new results of consequence came in while I was doing it.
8.46pm. A minor bug in my results page: the projected swing is rounding to full (percentage) numbers and not the first decimal place as intended, so it flips between 2.0% and 3.0% as the projection falls below and above 2.5%. The actual projection is 2.51%.
8.45pm. The first pre-poll voting centre (Gold Coast North) is in, and the result is above-par for the LNP, their primary vote up 8.3% with Labor little changed.
8.15pm. After being solid for quite a while on 3.0%, my projection of the LNP two-party swing just fell to 2.0%.
8.10pm. David Speers on the ABC says Labor are projecting a 2.1% two-party swing, compared with my 3.0%.
7.56pm. Looking like a high informal vote rate of approaching 7%. This isn’t booth matched, but the informal vote for ordinary votes in 2022 was 4.6%. Compare and contrast Aston, where the informal vote was 3.3% at both the election and the by-election.
7.46pm. As Murray Watt points out on the ABC, the absence of the United Australia Party, who were worth 6.3% last year, needs to be taken into account in looking at primary vote swings. No doubt this explains the One Nation vote holding up, and probably hasn’t done the LNP any harm either.
7.38pm. Things seem to be settling in now: the LNP is up on the primary vote, Labor little changed, One Nation doing well to hold even amid a bigger field of candidates, Legalise Cannabis doing well to knock on the door of double figures, and a poor result for the Greens, who are probably losing vote share to Legalise Cannabis (who weren’t in the field last time). What might change all this is a different dynamic on pre-poll voting, which we won’t know about until a fair bit later in the night.
7.25pm. Good results for the LNP from Sanctuary Cove and Coombabah South push the swing out further, to what I’m projecting at 4.0% on two-party.
7.18pm. Now it’s clear everything is running smoothly, my obligatory request for donations, which you can make my clicking “Become a Supporter” in the blue band at the top of the page.
7.16pm. Four booths in now on TCP and my system is calling it for the LNP.
7.15pm. Six booths in now on the primary vote, coming in quick enough that I won’t be able to offer comment on them individually. The LNP’s good result at Pimpama East looks like an outlier amid an overall status quo result.
7.12pm. Studio Village in on TPP — 0.6% swing to LNP.
7.11pm. Greens running fifth, behind One Nation and Legalise Cannabis, both on double figures. Gold Coast not exactly a happy hunting ground for them.
7.09pm. Pimpama East booth is in, and it’s a bad result for Labor, who are down nearly 5% with the LNP up nearly 10%. My LNP win probability estimate is now out to 95%.
7.03pm. Another plug for the map display on my results page, which you can activate by clicking on the button at the bottom of the page. Numbers indicate the booth has recorded two-party preferred numbers, with the colour recording the party that won the booth (teal for LNP, red for Labor) and the number their share of TPP. Where only the primary vote is in, the dot is coloured to indicate the leading party. White dots denote no result yet. Click on whatever it is and a table will pop up showing full results.
6.59pm. Legalise Cannabis are on double figures, and One Nation are more than holding up despite more competition for the minor party vote.
6.55pm. The second booth to report on the primary vote is Studio Village at the southern end of the electorate, and like Alberton, it records little primary vote swing for either major party.
6.30pm. The TCP booth is now in from the Alberton booth (highly efficient work there) and it’s a 1.6% swing to the LNP. My projections will continue to work off estimates until the TCP count reaches 1%.
6.28pm. The booth interestingly has One Nation level with Labor, but this is a particularly weak booth for Labor.
6.24pm. Was being a bit conservative with my estimates of when results would start — there are actually some very small booths in the seat, and one, Alberton, has primary votes for us already. These show both major parties up slightly on the primary vote.
5.30pm. With half an hour to go before polls close, welcome to the Poll Bludger’s coverage of the Fadden by-election count. After polls close at 6pm, you will find through the above link live updated results, including full booth details in both tabular and map display (click on the button at the bottom of the page) and swing-based projections and probability estimates. This post will offer live commentary as the results come through, the first of which I imagine will be in a bit before 7pm.
As a Poll Bludger I feel it is essential that I give my opinion as to who will win the Fadden by-election.
I say Labor will win !
Only a Moron would vote for the LNP and that awful man Dutton.
Re the predictions, esp the one that Gold Coasters always vote LNP cos they “have tickets on themselves”. I just looked up the table of average wealth per electorate and Fadden is 102nd out of 151 (ie, just in the bottom third), and obviously even lower on median wealth rankings (2020 figures – couldn’t find anything more recent). So the people there may feel better than others, but they’re not better off – and eventually that affects self-image and political identification. Their lack of wealth may contribute to making them madder about the Robodebt persecutions. Still not predicting an ALP win, but a substantial swing.
I think I’ll repeat my prediction yesterday of an LNP win of about 55-45, based on current federal polling of a swing to Labor of about 5% in Queensland.
Not enough to flip Fadden, but certainly enough to make the LNP members for Bowman, Petrie, Forde, Flynn, Leichhardt*, Bonner, Longman and Lord Voldespud himself in Dickson nervous.
(*Warren Entsch is retiring from Leichhardt next election so no skin off his back).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryVdIxMQZjE
I go for zero swing. I think the LNP is doing OK in Qld and cost of living is biting.
I confidently predict even QLDers have woken up to the nett zero sum game that is Dutton. 0% for the LNP candidate and other than that I don’t care who wins!
(Status Quo result, I’m afraid!)
2% 2pp swing to the Evil…
Who is the talking airhead sitting next to Speers? She can hardly read her autoprompt.
William Bowe says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 5:53 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryVdIxMQZjE
_____________
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DYje57V_BY
I’ve been driving ‘to the coast’ (Gold Coast to those who don’t live in Brisbane and by the way ‘up the coast’ for the Sunshine Coast) for over 50 years and as a general observation, I would always think of those living on the eastern side of the Gold Coast Highway, or the beach side, as those who had money and those on the western side of the highway were usually the workers who worked for businesses on the eastern side.
I will admit that the dividing line has now moved a couple of kilometers further west to the MI highway with housing estates springing up everywhere in this corridor which takes in parts of the electorate of Fadden.
Not every voter is living on the canal estates or within walking distance of a beach and while tradies abound in Fadden most appear to be close to or on the western side of the MI.
From what I see as I drive down the MI and look out the window, there is no reason why Labor can’t take back this seat.
Unfortunately, Labor need a majority to win.
Karen Andrews just sort of opined that she is expecting a small swing against the LNP.
I am doubting we will be in for a surprise tonight.
It is the Gold Coast after all.
Does the ABC coverage start at 7pm? All I’m seeing is the news.
Heartland seats will always be heartland seats, I guess.
What sort of a place is Alberton?
C@tmomma @ #16 Saturday, July 15th, 2023 – 6:55 pm
Rural
Small
Evening all. Average bi-election swings to oppositions by 5% to 6%. Anything less is a good result for Labor.
There is as much chance of Labor winning Fadden as of every member of the Morrison Ministry confessing their crimes.
Cat
Alberton is semi rural on fringe of Beenleigh as I recall.
Don’t forget that my results page has a map display that you can activate by clicking at the bottom of the page, if you want to see where the booths are. Also don’t forget to donate if you’re finding all this in any way useful.
Go Legalise Cannabis! Beating The Greens in Alberton!
I don’t know why the Greens bother to run in seats like Fadden (much like Labor presumably not running in the Warrandyte by-election in Victoria).
It’s a bad area, they’re never going to do well, and invites gleefully boneheaded takes with all the logic of an LNP stan getting tickets on themselves because Labor does badly in Maranoa.
35000 prepolls v 50000 in the last general election?
This one has always been my favourite:
https://youtu.be/gsCTpREM48M
I think The two party swing and the picture on top of page seem to be giving opposite result
Unfortunately, Looking good for LNP from early booths as per Casey Briggs of ABC
No update seems to be at different times
WB: 7.09pm. Pimpama East booth is in, and it’s a bad result for Labor, who are down nearly 5% with the LNP up nearly 10%. My LNP win probability estimate is now out to 95%.
Not looking at all for ALP. GC has become Florida
Too soon to say but it looks like the electorate is rejecting the Greensanting of the Voice and the Greens blocking building housing for homessless, DV victims and Indigenous people.
WB: 7.12pm. Studio Village in on TPP — 0.6% swing to LNP.
QLD never learn.
The ABC is projecting a 2% swing to Labor. That would be a good result for them. The LNP primary down 6.5% and Labor’s up 2% is a good result and if it was replicated in the state election with lots of LNP marginals on the Gold Coast.
an LNP win that will surprise no one. Helps that the LNP candidate is quite well spoken.
Note also in this ABC clip that the Voice does not register on voters’ radars. Minds are already made up in Middle Australia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8q2kE5zleEo
Federal 2022 fadden
LNP 44.62%
Labor 22.35%
—
Currently
LNP 38.1%
labor 24.3%
where is this swing to the lnp ?
44% millennials in Fadden as per Red Bridge pollster and still LNP is winning with increased margin.
Liberal AFL footie club Carlton bolting in against Port Adelaide at this very moment.
Ven:
The millennials in Fadden probably arn’t very representative of millennials nationwide.
If the LNP gets a lower primary vote particular under 40% in this so -called By election in fadden
Dutton wil be under pressure
LNP should be above 44% around now, not under 40%
”
Scottsays:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 7:20 pm
If the LNP gets a lower primary vote particular under 40% in this so -called By election in fadden
Dutton wil be under pressure
LNP should be above 44% a
”
Scott
ABC’s Casey Briggs can get high 40s based on current trends
@Scott
It’s coming back to the LNP via a boost in One Nation votes and a drop in Greens votes.
Ven says:
Scott
ABC’s Casey Briggs can get high 40s based on current trends
————————
Dutton and the corrupt media would be hoping so
Kirsdarke says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 7:24 pm
@Scott
It’s coming back to the LNP via a boost in One Nation votes and a drop in Greens votes.
——————-
Doesnt look like anything exciting for the LNP or Dutton and Media to be excited about , its safe LNP seat
The plunge in Greens votes going to Legalise Cannabis looks extremely similar to what happened in Gaven at the 2020 Queensland state election. Considering this doesn’t seem to happen elsewhere, I wonder if Greens support on the Gold Coast is just uniquely vulnerable to Legalise Cannabis?
Of course, if the LNP win Fadden, Dutton will act like he’s just won the federal election, not simply retained a safe seat for the LNP.
Casey Schmasey. There are primary vote projections on my results page — I get LNP at 48.4%, up 3.7%.
I read Letitia D, ALP candidate, is not a good communicator.
She reminds me of Karishma, ALP candidate of Heathcote federal electorate in previous elections, not 2022.
Welp, enough results have come in to confirm that my earlier prediction was wrong and it’s a swing to the LNP.
Aston made me optimistic that a similar swing might happen here, but it didn’t. Oh well, not a really significant result in the bigger picture of things. Other than in the minor party side, Legalise Cannabis does seem to be growing in popularity, given that it’s starting to outpoll Greens in several seats and win state upper house seats as well.
Probably not enough to start winning Senate seats, but with the Americanization of Australian politics and with more US states legalising cannabis, that may start influencing policies about marijuana in Australia in the next few years.
There would be a bit of crossover between Greens voters and Legalise Cannabis voters. Also, LC would pick up Millennial Tradies and Service Workers votes, I reckon.
Isn’t 48.4%, ‘high 40s’?
Looking like a solid but unremarkable result for the LNP on the results so far. As it’s (currently) within the typical by-election swing, they certainly shouldn’t be celebrating to hard, but Dutton will be relieved.
Not sure there’s much to be drawn from this federally beyond the confirmation that the LNP are still very strong on the Gold Coast, and probably would remain so even if their candidate was a convicted murderer.
Was Max Chandler-Mather campaigning in Fadden?
Could explain the tanking in the Greens vote..