Click here for full display of Fadden by-election results.
Monday
Along with rechecking, a further batch of postals today broke 699-271 to the LNP.
Sunday
A second batch of postals was added today, breaking 1289-602 compared with 5601-2247 for the election night batch, or 68.2% for the LNP compared with 71.4%. Also added were 262 Special Hospital Team votes, which broke about evenly.
Saturday night
12.05am. End of counting for the evening, with the AEC having accounted for all available results on primary and two-party by the close of business. Around half of a likely final total of 16,000 or so postals have been counted, with the remainder accounting for all of a few of the votes still to come. Unless I’m missing something, that suggests a rather meagre turnout in the low seventies, compared with 85.6% in Aston. To that can be added an increase in the informal vote share from 4.4% to 6.2%, as compared with a stable 3.3% in Aston.
10.23pm. Large Helensvale pre-poll, with 11,918 formal votes, reports with par-for-the-course swings on the primary vote.
10.08pm. Labrador pre-poll has reported its TPP: 2.7% swing to LNP.
9.35pm. The Gold Coast North pre-poll booth — the one that did well for the LNP — is now in on two-party, showing a 6.3% swing to the LNP.
9.30pm. The Runaway Bay pre-poll becomes the third to report on the primary vote, and it’s a big one — 14,432 formal votes. Like Labrador (2544 formal votes) and unlike Gold Coast North (3435), the swings are more or less the same as the election day booths.
9.16pm. A second pre-poll centre, Labrador, has reported on the primary vote — whereas the Gold Coast North centre was better for the LNP than the election day vote in swing terms, this one is basically the same.
9.02pm. Bug fixed — no new results of consequence came in while I was doing it.
8.46pm. A minor bug in my results page: the projected swing is rounding to full (percentage) numbers and not the first decimal place as intended, so it flips between 2.0% and 3.0% as the projection falls below and above 2.5%. The actual projection is 2.51%.
8.45pm. The first pre-poll voting centre (Gold Coast North) is in, and the result is above-par for the LNP, their primary vote up 8.3% with Labor little changed.
8.15pm. After being solid for quite a while on 3.0%, my projection of the LNP two-party swing just fell to 2.0%.
8.10pm. David Speers on the ABC says Labor are projecting a 2.1% two-party swing, compared with my 3.0%.
7.56pm. Looking like a high informal vote rate of approaching 7%. This isn’t booth matched, but the informal vote for ordinary votes in 2022 was 4.6%. Compare and contrast Aston, where the informal vote was 3.3% at both the election and the by-election.
7.46pm. As Murray Watt points out on the ABC, the absence of the United Australia Party, who were worth 6.3% last year, needs to be taken into account in looking at primary vote swings. No doubt this explains the One Nation vote holding up, and probably hasn’t done the LNP any harm either.
7.38pm. Things seem to be settling in now: the LNP is up on the primary vote, Labor little changed, One Nation doing well to hold even amid a bigger field of candidates, Legalise Cannabis doing well to knock on the door of double figures, and a poor result for the Greens, who are probably losing vote share to Legalise Cannabis (who weren’t in the field last time). What might change all this is a different dynamic on pre-poll voting, which we won’t know about until a fair bit later in the night.
7.25pm. Good results for the LNP from Sanctuary Cove and Coombabah South push the swing out further, to what I’m projecting at 4.0% on two-party.
7.18pm. Now it’s clear everything is running smoothly, my obligatory request for donations, which you can make my clicking “Become a Supporter” in the blue band at the top of the page.
7.16pm. Four booths in now on TCP and my system is calling it for the LNP.
7.15pm. Six booths in now on the primary vote, coming in quick enough that I won’t be able to offer comment on them individually. The LNP’s good result at Pimpama East looks like an outlier amid an overall status quo result.
7.12pm. Studio Village in on TPP — 0.6% swing to LNP.
7.11pm. Greens running fifth, behind One Nation and Legalise Cannabis, both on double figures. Gold Coast not exactly a happy hunting ground for them.
7.09pm. Pimpama East booth is in, and it’s a bad result for Labor, who are down nearly 5% with the LNP up nearly 10%. My LNP win probability estimate is now out to 95%.
7.03pm. Another plug for the map display on my results page, which you can activate by clicking on the button at the bottom of the page. Numbers indicate the booth has recorded two-party preferred numbers, with the colour recording the party that won the booth (teal for LNP, red for Labor) and the number their share of TPP. Where only the primary vote is in, the dot is coloured to indicate the leading party. White dots denote no result yet. Click on whatever it is and a table will pop up showing full results.
6.59pm. Legalise Cannabis are on double figures, and One Nation are more than holding up despite more competition for the minor party vote.
6.55pm. The second booth to report on the primary vote is Studio Village at the southern end of the electorate, and like Alberton, it records little primary vote swing for either major party.
6.30pm. The TCP booth is now in from the Alberton booth (highly efficient work there) and it’s a 1.6% swing to the LNP. My projections will continue to work off estimates until the TCP count reaches 1%.
6.28pm. The booth interestingly has One Nation level with Labor, but this is a particularly weak booth for Labor.
6.24pm. Was being a bit conservative with my estimates of when results would start — there are actually some very small booths in the seat, and one, Alberton, has primary votes for us already. These show both major parties up slightly on the primary vote.
5.30pm. With half an hour to go before polls close, welcome to the Poll Bludger’s coverage of the Fadden by-election count. After polls close at 6pm, you will find through the above link live updated results, including full booth details in both tabular and map display (click on the button at the bottom of the page) and swing-based projections and probability estimates. This post will offer live commentary as the results come through, the first of which I imagine will be in a bit before 7pm.
One thing is certain, the yes vote will totally flop in Qld whenever the referendum is held.
As for Fadden, why on earth Qld Labor wasted its resources on a lost cause is beyond me, and waging a campaign solely on robodebt and Stuart Robert obviously didn’t play dividends for them.
sprocket_ says:
“4.7% swing against the Greens – would have been more if the Greens convoy had motored up the Bruce in their Teslas to rub the Queenslanders nose in it.”
You mean, like the 3.1% swing *to* the Greens in their Queensland Senate vote after their 2019 convoy?
Dovif:
Yes, I’m sure Labor are just devastated about performing slightly better than incumbent governments typically do in by-elections, in a seat they were never going to win in a region where they struggle to get much support even when they win a landslide nationally.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 7:03 pm
Go Legalise Cannabis! Beating The Greens in Alberton!
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Hey…… Wow……… Far Out Man……. that’s Groovy !
Lars would be calling this peak Albo. I’m not so sure.
after being out-performed by Legalise Cannabis- the Greens are mulling their tactics
sprocket trying very hard to make this about the greens.
Evansays:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 8:38 pm
As for Fadden, why on earth Qld Labor wasted its resources on a lost cause is beyond me, and waging a campaign solely on robodebt and Stuart Robert obviously didn’t play dividends for them.
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Yep. Hubris.
Just got a bit too far ahead of themselves.
I am watching GWS vs Adelaide AFL match
Interesting looking at the Greens vs Legalise Cannabis booth results
https://pollbludger.net/fed2023by2/Results/HR.htm?s=Fadden
The only ones where Greens are winning are the well-heeled ones like Labrador with its high rises
Labor should stand in by-elections even if they’re bound to lose. In the current environment where voters are becoming more volatile it is unhelpful to their cause to allow voters to get into a habit of voting for someone else.
”
nathsays:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 8:41 pm
Lars would be calling this peak Albo.
”
For sure.
However, with PwC being in all sorts of woes, Lars currently maybe more interested in PwC woes
Asha,
Allow us to dream about the demise of The Greens, just for a little while, okay Mr Sensible Pants?
😉
NSW and Queensland will sink the referendum.
Bermuda Triangle of a political current: Tired state government in Queensland, NSW state government struggling to get out of 2nd gear and poorly communicated proposal seen by many as a combination of an overzealous white saviour complex and privileged elites concerned too much with international affairs exhausting the public from compassion fatigue.
Dutton’s leadership will make the referendum more competitive (for “Yes”) than it should be. His leadership has definitely artificially prolonged Albo’s political honeymoon.
To many on here, word is Perrottet will quit politics before Morrison. As is the word coming out of Macquarie Street
sprocket_says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 8:29 pm
Legalise Cannabis at 9.2% trouncing the Greens on 7%..
Adam Bandt needs to increase his tokes and drop the chumming up to the LNP..
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98.6 says :
I didn’t realise Nimbin and Mullumbimby were in the seat of Fadden.
sprocket_,
The Wellness Industry business owners of Labrador who don’t want Cannabis legalised because it would cut into their profit margins?
Vensays:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 8:50 pm
nath says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 8:41 pm
Lars would be calling this peak Albo.
For sure.
However, with PwC being in all sorts of woes, Lars currently maybe more interested in PwC woes
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LARS ???
Is Lars still posting ?
I agree, there is everything wrong with UK Labor, and in first past the post it is insane they are required to run candidates in every seat, but it should just be a standard rule in Australia, that Labor will always run a candidate, in every seat every time.
For this to be considered a bad result for Labor, the swing to the LNP would need to be much higher than it currently is. 2-3% is below average when compared to the average by-election swing against a sitting government. Sure, a win is a win, and the Coalition certainly won’t be unhappy tonight, but I doubt the government will be losing much sleep either.
A super-safe LNP seat remains a super-safe LNP seat. Little more to it than that
Labrador: LC 13.3%, Green 12.4%. That’s a quarter of the vote to parties to the left of Labor.
The Citizens Party (used to be the CEC) got 4.4% at Jacobs Well, compared to 0.8% overall – more than double their second-best booth, and single-handedly responsible for them not coming last. Must be something in the water there.
Labor should also enjoy the current greens and their ineptitude any centre left party that rose to take their place would be more problematic for labor on all fronts.
98.6says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 9:01 pm
LARS ???
Is Lars still posting ?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
nath communicated recently that he was in Fiji
A sign that Legalise Cannabis looks good for their first senate seat next election.
“A sign that Legalise Cannabis looks good for their first senate seat next election.”
It is a bit of a no brainer really. Labor federally should legalise it, literally take their name away.
But even though intelligent countries have done it very successfully we are collectively idiot Karens and it will be illegal here forever.
Labor will probably see it as a politically good reason to keep weed illegal if it reduces the number of Greens.
The Goldie is known more for its meth and coke then its weed.
On the wastewater report it is site 012….
WeWantPaul says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 9:10 pm
“A sign that Legalise Cannabis looks good for their first senate seat next election.”
It is a bit of a no brainer really. Labor federally should legalise it, literally take their name away.
But even though intelligent countries have done it very successfully we are collectively idiot Karens and it will be illegal here forever.
____________________
Based on the logic within your two paragraphs, Legalise Cannabis will increase support because it will never be legalised? Where do you think it will end? 🙂
mj says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 8:48 pm
Labor should stand in by-elections even if they’re bound to lose. In the current environment where voters are becoming more volatile it is unhelpful to their cause to allow voters to get into a habit of voting for someone else.
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If you want to be a politician, part of the job application is to work your way up to being a candidate
for selection for a seat, any seat.
You never know your luck in a big city.
Just ask any Teal or Green MP or councillor.
And you’re correct mj, voters do get into a habit of voting for someone else, once again, look at the Greens, most of them go on to win again and again.
I bet most of the Teals, if not all of them, will win back their seats in 2025.
AJP would have greater political longevity as usurpers of the Greens’ vote than Legalise Cannabis.
If/when cannabis does become legalised that effectively destroys LC. Much like UKIP and Brexit
Looks like a swing of about 2.3% against the Government. Postals and other late counting will boost that to about 3.5%. Less than the average swing against the Government but basically a nothing result. The LNP holds the seat.
A bit disappointing that over five in eight Faddenites consider the LNP acceptable after all the shenanigans that have come to light recently. Still, Robodebt only affected despised “others”, not nice respectable people like themselves, while the previous member, although dodgy as all get-out, was one of them.
Williams needle just pricked up. Only 1.4% swing now?
Dr John says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 9:07 pm
98.6says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 9:01 pm
LARS ???
Is Lars still posting ?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
nath communicated recently that he was in Fiji.
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Can’t Lars post from Fiji ?
UpNorth posts from Thailand.
The AEC site is showing a 2.6% swing: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29422-159.htm
Pity that Labor didn’t do better, one lives in hope, but a pretty predictable result overall. I’m pleased, of course, to see the drop in the Greens vote even if it mightn’t matter much federally.
Anything less than a 5% swing to Labor will be reported in some quarters as a devastating result, round rejection, the beginning of the end, etc, etc. I wonder how the Oz will report it?
I am calling it. It is clearly a win for Williams needle over the Wallabies sh!te.
For all the people claiming the Green result shows no one likes their recent actions.
Did the Greens do any campaining at all in the seat?
Even a general state level campagin is probably worth a few percentage points.
–
Plus they have competition this time for the votes of the left
The AEC site is showing a 2.6% swing…….
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I dont see how either get the LNP 2PP over 60 unless there is some big favourable booths outstanding or a lot of postals.
Steve777 says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 9:34 pm
The AEC site is showing a 2.6% swing: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29422-159.htm
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By those figures its obvious that no donkeys showed up to vote.
In retrospect a blunder that Labor ran a candidate. The only thing of substance for them out of this is the result is a bit of a barometer of where the party is at federally in QLD. The Voice is obviously cactus in QLD, and the cost of living would have had an impact. And Queenslanders still bitter about losing game 3 of State of Origin would have also been a factor as the PM is from NSW and Dutton a Queenslander.
AllBlacks might put on a cricket score against these Wobblies.
Legalise Cannabis have certainly done much better since they ditched the HEMP moniker as Help End Marijuana Prohibition was just a little too wordy for the dope smokers.
I am not sure Labor would be upset with Legalise Cannabis getting up in the Senate if it was to come at the expense of a Green. On the other hand if meant losing a Labor senator they’d be pissed.
Disappointing result for the ALP but it has to be remembered that this is the Gold Coast. At state level where our LNP has been a basket case for a long long time and in office for just 5 years since 1989, despite this the GC, bar one or two exceptions keeps on voting for them. Rural electorates in Qld are extremely conservative and the GC is like these but with a bit of glitz and glamour thrown into the mix and also a bit of prosperity styled Christianity. Most Brisbane people with any sense bypass this mini Florida for the more progressive areas of far north NSW .
The Fadden result is a disappointing result, but then you need to remember that these dudes actually voted for Stuart Roberts in the past.
98.6says:
“Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 9:44 pm
Steve777 says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 9:34 pm
The AEC site is showing a 2.6% swing: https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29422-159.htm
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By those figures its obvious that no donkeys showed up to vote.”
So, no donkeys – except on the ballot paper.
Sometimes you run a candidate not in the hope of winning but in the hope of getting your opponent to spend money to defend their their ground. As it is, Labor went nowhere but it didn’t really cost them much skin.
The story tomorrow is not going to be “Rejection of ALP, massive triumph for Dutton and LNP” but more “LNP comfortable win of safe seat”. Also given that Roberts had to quit under a cloud, it probably paid to run a candidate for that to stay in the headlines for another week or so.
I don’t want to attack Fabbro, but she didn’t increase the vote at the Federal election so I am not sure running her again was a wise choice.
Another interesting thing is outside of LNP, ALP, One Nation, LC and Greens – so among the other 8 candidates – nobody has stood out everyone is on about 0.7% to 1% of the vote. So the actual order that the votes get counted in the final count is still up in the air (and completely trivial).
PaulTusays:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 9:59 pm
The Fadden result is a disappointing result, but then you need to remember that these dudes actually voted for Stuart Roberts in the past.
PaulTusays:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 9:59 pm
The Fadden result is a disappointing result, but then you need to remember that these dudes actually voted for Stuart Roberts in the past.
PaulTusays:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 10:00 pm
The Fadden result is a disappointing result, but then you need to remember that these dudes actually voted for Stuart Roberts in the past.
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OK
OK
OK
We believe you !
As I said the News.com.au headline is “Dutton secures ‘solid’ win in Fadden”.
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/fadden-byelection-cameron-caldwell-retains-seat-for-lnp/news-story/20f50906dffd3b66c3d5a1619afa4373
The story is not going to be about Labor.
PS. Also I observe twitter favourite Belinda Jones got zero traction despite the twitterverse hype.
I’m assuming that the list on the AEC site is in ballot paper order.
Is reverse-donkey a thing? If it is, maybe the reverse donkeys turned out in droves.
The top position does come with an advantage, maybe 1-2%? William would probably know. If the Labor candidate had a 1-2% head start, a final swing of about 3.0 – 3.5%, might be equivalent to an average by-election swing. RoboDebt, the dodgy dealings of the previous member and the general incompetence, mendacity, malice and at least soft corruption of the previous Government had minimal impact on the result.
It’s a decent vote for the LNP in Queensland but still think they’ll struggle elsewhere under Dutton’s leadership. Clearly the economic situation isn’t going to help Labor but voters outside Queensland are not going to see the Libs/Nats as an appealing alternative. The next election will probably see increasing fragmentation of the vote…who knows where it’ll go though.
Thankyou Monsieur Bowe for the coverage.