The reliable Essential Research has published its regular fortnightly poll, featuring federal voting intention numbers which, inclusive of a 5% undecided component (down one), have the Coalition up two points on the primary vote to draw level with an unchanged Labor on 32%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is nonetheless steady at 52% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition, presumably reflecting better preference flow for Labor than last time (UPDATE: It seems the Essential Research chart display is misfiring – for me, at least – by not extending to the latest numbers, which actually have Labor down a point to 51% and the Coalition up two to 44%), with the vagaries of rounding pushing undecided up a point to 6%. The Greens are unchanged at 14%, while One Nation is up one to 8%, the upper limit of their range through the current term.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from double its usual sample size at 2248 respondents, presumably to add extra muscle to state breakdowns from a question on the Indigenous Voice, which is framed around the wording to be used in the referendum. This records the yes vote at 47% nationally with no at 43%, with state breakdowns showing yes well in the clear in Victoria (48% to 39%) and South Australia (49% to 38%), well behind in Queensland (42% to 50%), and statistically tied in New South Wales (45% to 44% in favour of yes) and Western Australia (49% to 47% in favour of yes).
Themunz, certainly aware of the long term value of EVs (although even ICE car resale values are solid atm). I recently had to confront the cost of replacing/reconditioning diesel injectors. The lure of a far simpler machine is strong.
It is this that has kept me from getting a PHEV or Hybrid.
Themunz says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 4:09 pm
Team Katichsays:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 3:44 pm
“I am nearing a car purchase and I find it a damned hard decision. I feel that any market that has a loooong waiting list isn’t a very competitive one and I won’t be getting good bang for buck. But even ICE cars are overpriced atm.”
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What has escaped much comment is how ten year old Teslas have stood up and held good resale prices.
That is despite all the FUD about need to replacing batteries etc.
It appears to me that EV’s are going to have a much longer serviceable life with owners dying before their cars do.
The big legacy makers are in big strife. Chinese makers plus Tesla have a vice like grip.
I had been a happy Audi owner for the last 25 years but I hear today they are giving up on their own EV platform and buying one from the Chinese!
PS Today I received an OTA update on the Tesla, that is three in as many months. Impressive.
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I note a Tesla 3 in the US recently passed the 600,000km mark. If people drove 20k yearly, that would equate to 30 years of driving. In that time it maintained 85% battery capacity. I think we can put the battery issue to bed.
George Mega’s article today was a lazy, groupthink, generic effort that would’ve taken him not long to tap out and some column inches that got him a paycheck. Good for you George.
Asha, yes I’m partisan to Andrews, because he’s that far ahead of his political peers in terms of strong leadership it’s embarrassing for them. I give credit to Anna P for surviving this long but she’s done it off the back of fossil fuels. The rest not worth a pinch of goat shit.
if liberals loose fadin surely duttons leadership is over he is the most in efective loto since nellson his stratigyfirst his tacdicks are hopelis triying to bring up the higgins matter which lead to morrisons defeat but in stead of it damaging Gallacher who has come out of it with out of it undamaged then after callingfor labor to do somthing about rising interest ratestghe government replaces the rba govinor what does dutton do defend low and argue he should be reappointed
if it was andrews or albanese the lib nat media would be calling him imbattled but you can loose a bi election for first time in 100 years and media allow dutton to continue nno labor leader would recover
Wong and gallacher are imo thetwo best performers so far there is a reason the liberals are targiting them and whatt in senate there not targiting weaker performers like Farell who has to be the weakist minister in the government he needs to be dumped moved out of ttrade not only has hehas trade deals with europe colapsed but has made litle progress on removing China trade tariths plus as minister in charge of donations has dun nothing about introducing caps to provent a parllmer atempting to buy his seat plus heis uselis in parliament a terible media performer
Albo knows Dutton is his greatest asset. Albo will be thrilled with a strong Fadden win for the L/NP.
it would be good if qld labor could put murray whatt in a lower house seat the government needs strong performers in lower house seats to pick up seats in qld especialy grifith maybi whatt could run there he has been strong on attacking Chandler mather for blocking invesment in housing apart from charmers and the speaker labor has litle tallent in qld
People really haven’t gotten their heads around what it’s going to be like when car ownership is 95% electric. Long before it gets to 50%, retail petrol companies will be in free-fall. Globally, new sales are already 14%. In two years in Oz it went from 2% to 6%.
EVs last longer because they have a fraction of the moving parts. As that washes out through the system all of the parts suppliers are also going to be decimated in waves. When those economies of scale go backwards, it accelerates. There’s going to be a LOT of creative destruction.
Farell might be okay behind the sceens but not in a important ministry like trade the liberals have there weak performers cash is only in shadow cabenit due to Clan backing she is shrill which gets publisity buut her argument is allways so prodictible what ever labor is introducing will be the end of the wold butler is also not a strong media performer but is good on the policy side like taking on the guild to give us cheeper medasins wonder when Twomie will anowse his running in likehart for lnp
Pi says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 5:35 pm
People really haven’t gotten their heads around what it’s going to be like when car ownership is 95% electric. Long before it gets to 50%, retail petrol companies will be in free-fall. Globally, new sales are already 14%. In two years in Oz it went from 2% to 6%.
EVs last longer because they have a fraction of the moving parts. As that washes out through the system all of the parts suppliers are also going to be decimated in waves. When those economies of scale go backwards, it accelerates.
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Logic too suggests that ICE cars will be of little value in five years time and potentially difficult to sell, particularly if as expected numerous new EVs will sell for $30k.
Pi @ #960 Saturday, July 15th, 2023 – 5:35 pm
Good. And also so obvious that none of them should have any right to complain when it happens. But they will. Just watch.
My sympathies to those on the fence about EV purchase. If you do not have spare cash or a strong ideological commitment to EVs it is a terrible time to buy a new car generally in Australia. This should improve when Bowen finally announces the EV policy
Pi is right that the switch to EVs will drive change in-the auto industry, some good some bad.
Many dealers will disappear with parts and servicing so simple it will be done at something like Beaurepairs when you get your tyres done. Even brake pads will need less changing.
There will be big benefits when EVs get widespread. EV power demand is synergistic with renewable energy and will incentivise grid upgrades that are required for a net zero grid. Oslo is already seeing measurably improvements in noise and air quality. The extra power needed has been manageable too. EVs also look to be around 40% safer than ICEs. So lots of lives and medical costs saved.
Economically oil for transport is our second biggest import item on balance of payments – over $30 billion per annum. EVs will reduce the leverage of the world’s oil oligarchs.
Of course overall Australia’s cities need to become more medium density with better public transport and less money spent on road capacity increases.
PS in cities we won’t need service stations so much. Recharging is a better fit with activities like shopping centres, cafes, restaurants and movies and CBD office carparking, where the time doesn’t matter. I could see Westfields covering their centres in panels and selling recharging to customers in future.
Farrell is actually doing well in trade. In particular the Albanese Government is not letting the EU and China roll over the top of Australia.
Logic too suggests that ICE cars will be of little value in five years time and potentially difficult to sell, particularly if as expected numerous new EVs will sell for $30k.
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There are a lot of people that do not have even $30k to spend on a car. People need cheap cars (be they second hand ICE or EV or whatever). The path you and others are suggesting we are on will greatly increase inequality unless measures are put in to assist lower income peeps. I suggest that the ICE car second had market (and fuelling) will still be viable in 5 years time for that reason alone.
For those cranky at offsets – this is one area where they could be very useful. It may come to pass that second hand EVs will be subsidised (by companies needing to offset harder-to-shift emissions) in order to encourage lower income peeps to lay to rest their ICE vehicles…… Or a far more extensive public transport system. Or both.
We’re running down our 14 yr old ICE SUV at the rate of 10-11,000 km per year while waiting for an affordable EV. We are basically waiting for an EV with a range of 800 km.
Sad news. Yes Minister star John Nettleton has died at 94.
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2023/jul/14/yes-minister-star-john-nettleton-dies-aged-94
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1r8iQkZJb4
Boerwar @ #967 Saturday, July 15th, 2023 – 6:13 pm
How amusing – this from someone who repeatedly castigated me – an EV owner who welcomes EV owning guests and offers to recharge them from our solar panels – for running an eco retreat where people still sometimes arrive in ICE vehicles. And he runs an ICE SUV!
Hypocrisy, thy name is Boerwar!
Player One says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 6:17 pm
Boerwar @ #967 Saturday, July 15th, 2023 – 6:13 pm
We’re running down our 14 yr old ICE SUV at the rate of 10-11,000 km per year while waiting for an affordable EV. We are basically waiting for an EV with a range of 800 km.
How amusing – this from someone who repeatedly castigated me – an EV owner who welcomes EV owning guests and offers to recharge them from our solar panels – for running an eco retreat where people still sometimes arrive in ICE vehicles. And he runs an ICE SUV!
Hypocrisy, thy name is Boerwar!
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No, the hypocrisy solidly remains with the concept of eco tourism.
Carry on! 🙂
*glares in Westralian*
No one has done more for the planet on this forum than BW. Ask him, he will tell you.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 5:17 pm
George Mega’s article today was a lazy, groupthink, generic effort that would’ve taken him not long to tap out and some column inches that got him a paycheck. Good for you George.
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Thanks, Rex. We are so fortunate to have your wisdom on Pollbludger 😉
No, the hypocrisy solidly remains with the concept of eco tourism.
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Really? The inherent contradictions and problematic implementation of it are worthy of consideration and comment but the concept is surely laudatory when done well.
Aaron Newton:
Labor doesn’t have many safe seats in Queensland right now. I doubt Murray Watt is going to want to give up his spot at the top of the Senate ticket for a very risky tilt at a HoR seat currently held by the Greens.
He’s also a northsider (a member of the same branch as me, funnily enough), and the only safe vacancies likely to arise any time soon (Oxley, Moreton, and Blair, if and when the incumbents decide to retire) are well south of the Brisbane River. Lilley’s held by young up-and-comer Annika Wells, Rankin by Chalmers, and the rest by the Greens or LNP.
I mean even at its most basic. That tourism consider the natural environment and human impact on nature is certainly better than the concept of tourism that ignores these things.
Rex Douglas:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 5:33 pm
[‘Albo knows Dutton is his greatest asset. Albo will be thrilled with a strong Fadden win for the L/NP.’]
I’m not so sure that Albanese will be ‘thrilled’ but he won’t be too worried at this point in the electoral cycle. With no polling, as far as I know, to go by, the result is anyone’s guess. If the Tory candidate (a former “swinger”) improves Robert’s margin or at least maintains the status quo, Dutton will most likely interpret it as being a vote of confidence in his leadership, resulting in more “pathological” negativity, which can only be a good thing from Labor’s perspective. Dutton’s as theck (sic) as they come.
nath says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 6:34 pm
I mean even at its most basic. That tourism consider the natural environment and human impact on nature is certainly better than the concept of tourism that ignores these things.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4PzpxOj5Cc
All the best for you in your war against all tourism.
Stooges should know to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Is that how it goes? Or is it something about the lesser of two evils?
Swinger parties seems fun, especially pirate themed swinger parties. I suspect the reality is a let down. Especially for whoever cleans up afterwards.
Oh I don’t have a war against all tourism. I partake myself, nath. I simply don’t make a song and dance about it being better for the planet. I admit to it being a luxury that future generations will pay for.
Nath:
No, no, you don’t understand. The important point is that people who are critical of the Labor party are bad people and everything that they do is also bad by association.
Unless Kevin Rudd happens to be leader. Then you can go nuts.
I am a stooge? As an independent voter? Come now, nath. What is your definition of a stooge again? Someone that bests you in an argument perhaps? What does that make you? 😉
Asha says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 6:53 pm
Nath:
No, no, you don’t understand. The important point is that people who are critical of the Labor party are bad people and everything that they do is also bad by association.
Unless Kevin Rudd happens to be leader. Then you can go nuts.
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Is this a relevant comment or are you just keen to insert yourself into the fray? 🙂
You may be an independent voter. But on here you run with a pack. A pack of vaudevillian performers specializing in slapstick and pies.
I would imagine the quality of a swingers party is heavily dependent on the quality of the swingers. Sadly, this is probably a fairly accurate depiction of most of them:
https://youtu.be/dY8BSHVWGxk
If you know, you know.
Nearly the ten year anniversary too, now that I think about it!
nath says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 6:57 pm
You may be an independent voter. But on here you run with a pack. A pack of vaudevillian performers specializing in slapstick and pies.
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It is fascinating how you view your protagonists. Zero projection 🙂
It may be old fashioned but when it comes to sex parties, I would prefer to be the only bull in the paddock. I don’t need to see Danny De Vito on the job, or even be close to such a site.
A pirate themed swinger party does open the question as to the best lines used on the night.
Shiver me timber?
Have you seen my buccaneers?
How bout walking the plank?
Nath:
No need to kink shame.
Looks like the LNP have retained Dutton, sorry, Fadden.
Pyrrhic victory?
Asha says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 7:03 pm
Nath:
No need to kink shame.
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No of course not. But my own preferences are equally valid. And I might even make an exception for a gentleman such as yourself.
Asha:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 6:58 pm
Nice one.
Nath:
Ooh, I’ll barely be able to sleep tonight!
Rex Douglas
Will need to do a lot of work to get the minor party and independents vote back up in QLD
Has Boerwar binned himself off again?
Nothing so ungracious and entitled as a superannuated defined benefits pensioner.
Who is kink shaming? Not sprocket? Behave.
Scott @ #999 Saturday, July 15th, 2023 – 7:35 pm
Qld is a lost cause. Too many boomers, racists and hillbillies.