The reliable Essential Research has published its regular fortnightly poll, featuring federal voting intention numbers which, inclusive of a 5% undecided component (down one), have the Coalition up two points on the primary vote to draw level with an unchanged Labor on 32%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is nonetheless steady at 52% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition, presumably reflecting better preference flow for Labor than last time (UPDATE: It seems the Essential Research chart display is misfiring – for me, at least – by not extending to the latest numbers, which actually have Labor down a point to 51% and the Coalition up two to 44%), with the vagaries of rounding pushing undecided up a point to 6%. The Greens are unchanged at 14%, while One Nation is up one to 8%, the upper limit of their range through the current term.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from double its usual sample size at 2248 respondents, presumably to add extra muscle to state breakdowns from a question on the Indigenous Voice, which is framed around the wording to be used in the referendum. This records the yes vote at 47% nationally with no at 43%, with state breakdowns showing yes well in the clear in Victoria (48% to 39%) and South Australia (49% to 38%), well behind in Queensland (42% to 50%), and statistically tied in New South Wales (45% to 44% in favour of yes) and Western Australia (49% to 47% in favour of yes).
Lol Rex Douglas , correct though Qld is the only state the LNP can rely on to keep them in double digit seats consistently
”Qld is a lost cause. Too many boomers, racists and hillbillies.”
Probably wouldn’t convert many Queenslanders with that.
Steve777 @ #1004 Saturday, July 15th, 2023 – 7:43 pm
Fck em
Cue the world’s smallest violin.
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-kingdom/prince-andrew-could-lose-treasured-childhood-holiday-home/video/5767bd16b28bf959276ca762995e8208
So the Fadden swinger appears to be gaining a swing. Tells you everything we already new about the folk of that locale.
wranslide says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 7:38 pm
Who is kink shaming? Not sprocket? Behave.
______________
No-one is. Nothing wrong with nath and Asha enjoying each other’s company. Even when being performative 🙂
“ Supermarket food prices in the UK have increased by more than 25% over the past two years according to the consumer group Which?”
Yikes
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jul/15/uk-supermarket-food-prices-which-loyalty-card-deals
It will be interesting to see if the Fadden result for the LNP , makes the federal and state NSW liberal party members get Morrison to force a by-election in the safe nsw Liberal party seat of cook
Scott, I worry that the LNP, and their corrupt propaganda units might influence the result.
What do you think?
wranslide says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 8:07 pm
Scott, I worry that the LNP, and their corrupt propaganda units might influence the result.
What do you think?
————————-
It doesnt gain the lib/nats extra seat only a chance to lose another seat , they can do what they like , it would be embarrassing for the Lib/nats and the corrupt media , if the seat of cook was even close
qld would not be a lost cause of murray whatt was to transfer to lower house maybi get a few state ministers palaszuk would be good how ever most premiers that go dfederal seem tounder perform federaly
well given mark speakman does not seem to be triying toas being nsw liberal leader if perotit was to quit Tudehope could get his old seat epping and if kean was to quit ward manley and they could be opposition leader and deputyunles speakman agrees to run i cant see morrison quitting at least until the next electionin the uk it is not unusual for former pms to serve for a long time on the back bench tareser may has no intention of resigning
The biggest gainers in terms of representation in Fadden seem to be the ones who either did not turn up at all and/or who voted informal…. possibly close to a third of the electorate. I blame the Millennials.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 10:12 am
I’m starting to see a few of those Ioniqs around the place. They look more attractive than the Teslas as well.
I’m going to wait for the European FTA to be signed and hopefully that will see European EVs delivered into Australia cheaper than what they would otherwise be.
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98.6 agrees :
Yes, I’m going to wait for many reasons as well.
I’ve always bought cars on style not what’s under the bonnet.
If the style is right, cost is not really important but it seems the longer I wait, I’ll have a greater choice
of makes and models at a better price than what we see manufactures are asking at present.
My average time for keeping a car, always from new, is 10 years, so I have at least another 3 years to go.
Hopefully by then all these new EVs will sort out their charging plug differences and the distance they can travel on one full charge.
With three friends already having purchased an EV, including a BYD (Build Your Dreams), the different advice they tell me to follow when I buy one only persuades me to hold out a few more years.
Aaron newton
The longer Scott Morrison stays in the opposition , it will suit Labor politically at the upcoming 2025 federal election
i dont know labors they have been there since 2007 and in a state with lnp holding a majority of seats you have to get some high profile candadates to win seats maybi a state minister or palazuk having under performing mps in safe seats does not help marginal seat candadates victorian labor could also get rid of there old mps brendon oconnor and vamvackeneu have got nothing to offer vamvackeneu has done nothing but has kept her seat since 2001 at least anthony byrne was forced out he has not found a job yet despite nick mckenziis claim he was some security exbert because he was deputy cchair of parliaments inteligents comitty which has no power acsept recomending listing of terarist organiziations cant even investegate abus buy our agentsies like us senate what happind to geatjones is he still uninployedfactions in qld cant get peritt and neuman to retire they have been
I dont know byrne at all from my observations he seemed uselis hardly ever spoke in parliament and was only in parliament because of branch stacking had little tallent hedid give lots of imformation to mckenzi but if he new anything about security like mckenzi protendid hewould have found a job at one of those pro us think tanks but as far as i can tell his disappearedmckenzi claimed he had close links with security agintsies and despite jefrey watsons over the top prodictins turns out somyurek did nothing criminaly rong
Despite most of mckenzies over the top claims in his reports turning out to be over the top at least he may have been right about roberts smith how everhis nonsence that branch stacking was somhow the bigest scandle in political history maybi wotson could retire he didsuccesfully prosecute obid but most of his prodictions turn out to be rong
Despite most of mckenzies over the top claims in his reports turning out to be over the top at least he may have been right about roberts smith how everhis nonsence that branch stacking was somhow the bigest scandle in political history maybi wotson could retire he didsuccesfully prosecute obid but most of his prodictions turn out to be rong well didnt byrne get rid of dastyari over china maybi it was his achievement after all spending 20 years as a invizable back bencher with little tallint acsept being deputy chair of a powerlis comity and only in parliament thanks to branch stacking maybi that was his achievement and undermining labors foriegn policy the highist he got was parliamentary secretary
Aaron, I am once again begging you to look into getting a better speech-to-text device.
@Cat this morning )just catching up):
“ Ven,
So you would rather Australia be defenceless? Because I don’t know what alternative there is to AUKUS? Perhaps a few signs with ‘Go away and leave us alone!’ painted on them?”
____
I think that would have to be the singular most stupid post I have ever read on bludger in the last decade.
If we are talking about ‘the defence of Australia’ and not Gotterdamarang in the strait of Taiwan in furtherance of American hegemony then the Attack class program was perfectly suited to an integrated A2-AD network to keep us very well defended.
If we think – and I tend to agree – that because our strategic interests will ultimately be best served by pivoting to nuclear propulsion then we still need to be realistic. these are the unavoidable facts:
American can only help us if they compromise themselves significantly in the 2030s by giving us 3 Virginia class subs that they sorely need. The head of the US Navy trolled the bell on that just this week. That should come as no surprise, given the reality of their aging Los Angles and Ohio Class boats; or the fact that they haven’t got a single Columbia class boat nearly completion and are only manufacturing Virginia Class boats at the rate of 1.2 boast per year (and haven’t even really started with the build process of the evolved Virginia Block V class).
Britain is a rolling omnishambles – especially their shipbuilding industry, and in particaular BAE marine at barrow and their nuclear submarine building instructor.it will take a miracle if we receive a single ‘SSN-AUKUS’ class submarine by 2050. In n the the best case pollyanna-esque ‘plan’ if for us to receive ONE by 2043 and -hopefully 5 by 2055. FMD, the ‘best case’ is that we have ONE boat in THREE at sea at any time.
Yet you talk about ‘keeping us safe’. madness. Utter madness.
Of course, we could have simply pivoted to nuclear variants of the attack class if we really needed them. The most modern nuclear boat design, yet now a mature technology. We could have built ‘the front of the boat’, leveraging off all the work we had already done with the attack class design – not to mention a all the facilities we had built for a boat of that size. The French could have built the back half and the individual modules could have been could have been put together by no later than 2030 – alternating between Cherbourg and Adelaide – with boats coming into service fro m about 2034 at the latest at a drum beat of one boat per year if necessary.
I understand that C@t is a complete fan girl of America, especially a Biden American, but she has really screwed the pooch on this – and so has the Canberra establishment. God know why – all they have done is swapped an Australian-American-French program for an Australian- American-British program that verges on pure fantasy.Why?
I’d say I’m a Biden American, but I’m more clear eyed about how long this will last and more worried about what might come next. I’d be happy with Australia going all-in with the USA if Biden were an FDR figure, but with Trump/Desantis on the border I’m a lot more sceptical.
Mick: Biden is literally a living fossil from the FDR era. He reflects the post war consensus that encompassed Democrats and Eisenhower-Regan-Bush republicans alike. THAT consensus is gone when he is gone. And it’s not just Trump and Desantis we have to be worried about either. No urban – democrat or progressive american under 40 is likely to sign up to the american imperialism project. the whole Raison d’être for the ‘contain China’ mission will disappear with Biden.
And yet … both Chifley and Menzies had the sense to say ‘no’ to America regarding a shared responsibility for the defence of Taiwan, yet both Morrison and to his eternal damnation Albo are positively volunteering us for that task. On the frontline. Madness.
US is an empire in decline. Following them blindly into theatres like Ukraine and Taiwan is/will be a fool’s errand.
Biden won’t be the nominee, so who’s knows what the Foreign Policy of the US will be in 12 months
My main criticism of AUKUS is that we seem to be hitching our wagon to one dead and one dying Empire, rather than looking ahead. This is perhaps due to unconscious racism, which sees alliances with white, English speaking nations as the obvious option.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 8:25 pm
The biggest gainers in terms of representation in Fadden seem to be the ones who either did not turn up at all and/or who voted informal…. possibly close to a third of the electorate. I blame the Millennials.
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What’s the current fine for not voting ?
zoomster: “alliances with white, English speaking nations as the obvious option.”
The obvious option for defence alliances is the options that have the best weapons technology? Is this a debating point? Genuinely curious.
My continuing point is that we’re all integrated. Look at what happens when you try and break those links; Brexit. All I can say is that I’m glad the grown-ups are in charge. For now.
Bomanicious
Biden won’t be the nominee, so who’s knows what the Foreign Policy of the US will be in 12 months.
Bullshit.
Bomanicious
US is an empire in decline.
Also bullshit.
Fadden votes counted so far total about 59% of the enrolment. Seems a bit low.
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-29422-159.htm
98.6:
On paper, $20.
In reality, nothing. It’s super easy to come up with an excuse for why you didn’t vote.
But just the fear of the fine is effective enough to ensure we have some of the highest voter turnouts in the world anyway, so whatevs. I doubt actually enforcing it would make much of any difference to the numbers.
Since $20 is one of the lowest fines going for an offence that gets fined regularly a lot of people probably suspect that the fine is higher than it actually is. If you compared it to traffic offences, for example, it looks rather low. Some states also have higher fines for the same offence at state and/or local government elections.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 5:23 pm
Asha, yes I’m partisan to Andrews, because he’s that far ahead of his political peers in terms of strong leadership it’s embarrassing for them. I give credit to Anna P for surviving this long but she’s done it off the back of fossil fuels. The rest not worth a pinch of goat shit.
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Yes Rex, I’m with you on Andrews but keep in mind he has only just won his third term whereas Annastacia Palaszczuk has won 3 elections on the trot and increased her majority each time from a base in 2012 of 7 Labor MPs.
PAP has been Premier for 8 and a half years and I believe she will still be Premier after October 2024.
However, should that not happen she will have served as Premier for 10 years, a rare feat in this political
age, especially for a woman. Think how she has outlasted that CORRUPT female Premier of NSW.
Besides Labor not winning Fadden today, Labor are on a roll Australia wide but we would be naive to think that federally and in all states, excl Tassie, will remain in Labor’s hands over the next several years.
As for your comment re PAP surviving this long off the back of fossil fuels, its the first time I’ve heard
that reasoning but I will admit that it will help her from now on with the extra coal royalties siphoned off from the worlds largest mining companies and put into the pockets of 5 million Queenslanders.
I’d very much like to replace my aging ICE van with an EV. No prospects of that whatsoever. I will increase the use of the old bicycle, do more walking and travel by rail.
Tom the first and best says:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 11:01 pm
Since $20 is one of the lowest fines going for an offence that gets fined regularly a lot of people probably suspect that the fine is higher than it actually is. If you compared it to traffic offences, for example, it looks rather low. Some states also have higher fines for the same offence at state and/or local government elections.
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$20 is not worth the time, effort and paperwork required by a public servant to send out and chase up if not paid. Having said that, I remember it being $4 for decades.
Unfortunately, as you mentioned comparing it to traffic offences, Ms 98.6 was transferring our small dog from the back seat of our car onto her lap in the front seat just a minute before an overhead camera caught her with her seat belt not over her shoulder properly.
I was fined $1,069 as the driver and I lost 4 points.
She got off scott free.
Now that’s what I call a fine, not a measly $20.
”
zoomstersays:
Saturday, July 15, 2023 at 9:53 pm
My main criticism of AUKUS is that we seem to be hitching our wagon to one dead and one dying Empire, rather than looking ahead. This is perhaps due to unconscious racism, which sees alliances with white, English speaking nations as the obvious option.
”
Add ‘unfortunately’ at the end.
I mean, if you still believe in democracy then there’s pretty limited superpower ally options. I can’t roll my eyes hard enough at bringing racism into why we might choose a declining US over China… Australia is also strongly pursuing relationships with Indonesia and India and has long had excellent relations with Japan despite what Japan did during the war. The common thread is democracy.
Fadden was never going to be Aston, especially not as the cost of living stuff bites (also why there’s not going to be a DD any time soon) and in maybe the most Voice-hostile area in Australia. Really not bothered.
Ron DeSantis is building “an armed, combat-ready militia” of 1500 volunteers …
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jul/15/ron-desantis-florida-state-guard-militia-veterans-quit
98.6: “Think how [Palaszczuk] has outlasted that CORRUPT female Premier of NSW.”
Indeed, Palaszczuk had been premier for two years already when Gladys gushed about how ‘someone with a long surname, and a woman, can be Premier’. Been there, done that.
And she is still in office almost two years after ‘The Woman Who Shamed Australia’ quit while under investigation for corruption.
New thread.
[snip]
Arky:
+1