The latest Newspoll from The Australian gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, in from 55-45 three weeks ago. This equals a result in March as the weakest Newspoll for Labor out of the eleven published since the Albanese government came to power, which have ranged from 54-46 to 57-43. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 38%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation steady at 6%.
Anthony Albanese records his softest personal ratings since the election, down three on approval to 52% and up five on disapproval to 42%. We must wait upon the equivalent results for Peter Dutton, which are not featured in the report (UPDATE: Up two on approval to 38%, down one on disapproval to 49%), and also the preferred prime minister results, which we are told are the tightest since the election, Albanese’s previous narrowest lead having been 54-28 in late April (UPDATE: In from 55-28 to 52-32).
Perhaps most sobering for the government is a finding that 47% intend to vote no in the Indigenous Voice referendum, up four on three weeks ago, eclipsing yes on 43%, down three. This comes from an expanded sample of 2303, together with a longer than usual field work period from June 16 to 24, which has been further juiced with the results of the previous poll to provide state breakdowns with substantial sample sizes and a sample of 3852 overall. Yes has the lead only in Victoria, by 48-41, and New South Wales, by 46-41. No leads by 54-40 in Queensland, 52-39 in Western Australia, 46-45 in South Australia and 48-43 in Tasmania.
43 Yes
47 No
Time for the Yes advertising campaign to begin.
WB, a correction? “No *leads* by 54-40 in Queensland…”
Edit: Never mind. 🙂
I know the Yes campaign is waiting until they see the whites of their eyes before they start to fight, but I’m pretty sure we can see the whites of their eyes now!
Whether no voters think they are racist or not, we will all be tarred with that brush when we travel overseas in the future, should the referendum be defeated.
Poor fellow, my country.
Corrected.
With a sample size of 2,393, the margin of error is 2%. The changes in party votes and 2PP are within the margin of error. The slump in the Voice vote definitely is, as is the drop in the PM’s approval.
MABWMsays:
Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 9:59 pm
I know the Yes campaign is waiting until they see the whites of their eyes before they start to fight, but I’m pretty sure we can see the whites of their eyes now!
Whether no voters think they are racist or not, we will all be tarred with that brush when we travel overseas in the future, should the referendum be defeated.
Poor fellow, my country.
=================================
Agreed my friend!
”
Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)
Newspoll finds no leading yes on the Indigenous Voice for the first time, along with softer results for Labor and Anthony Albanese.
The latest Newspoll from The Australian gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, in from 55-45 three weeks ago. This equals a result in March as the weakest Newspoll for Labor out of the eleven published since the Albanese government came to power, which have ranged from 54-46 to 57-43. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 38%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation steady at 6%.
”
I told ya. The Greens political party shenanigans on HAFF policy are hurting both Federal ALP and Greens political party while LNP is laughing from the sidelines.
Good job Greens political party !(sarcasm emoji)
Is it a coincidence that whenever a Labor leader dies ALP gets bad result? Bob Hawke died on the eve of 2019 Federal election and now Simon Crean has passed away.
I think the most important lesson from this poll is that the “Yes” campaign need to urgently find a strategy that differs from the “Remain” campaign in the Brexit referendum if they want to actually win.
Because they seem to be doing the same thing, and the “No” campaign has the successful “Leave” strategy to go from, and it seems to be working.
And I think if “No” wins in this referendum, it’ll smash this government just as badly as the Brexit referendum destroyed the Cameron government. It won’t be a result that can be shrugged off easily.
Ven – Your sample size to too small.
I get all the Yes invitations but I’m blowed if I believe that going to an ‘Information Session’ is going to swing it for the Yes camp.
And the tone of the Yes campaign is all wrong. It’s soooo naice. Well, this is the 21st century and Naice is a horse that gets trampled on by all the other runners using dirty tactics.
I mean, Peter Dutton is already onto his second campaign iteration, with any attacks on him by Labor as they finally wake up to the fact they’ve been done like a turkey dinner by the No Coalition, being painted as nasty and aggressive, when it’s what they should have been doing to him all along, calling him out for what he is, an elitist who has no interest in advancing the cause of the most disadvantaged group in our society. And the one who should be given the most respect.
Can the Yes campaign PLEASE find a charismatic communicator and get them in everyone’s face 24/7, from now until the referendum!!!
Ven @ #8 Sunday, June 25th, 2023 – 10:16 pm
You’re putting the cart before the horse there, Ven.
Yes.
MABWM says:
Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 9:59 pm
I know the Yes campaign is waiting until they see the whites of their eyes before they start to fight, but I’m pretty sure we can see the whites of their eyes now!
Whether no voters think they are racist or not, we will all be tarred with that brush when we travel overseas in the future, should the referendum be defeated.
Poor fellow, my country.
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98.6 says :
Poor Fellow, My Country by Xavier Herbert is the best book I have ever read.
I would read it again but at the time of publishing, it was one of the longest books ever written in English, if not the longest and it took me months to finish it.
“Yes” is actually a hard sell. The Yes23 adverts that have been running talk only about recognition and not the Voice. Unless you’re all ready on the bandwagon they don’t do much – a bit like some of climate action ads that failed to shift the balance in favour of the carbon tax a decade ago.
Selling the Voice part is difficult because the benefits are not clearly evident (although there are some). The “need” for such a body should be emphasised more but then it runs into the argument that could exist outside of the constitution.
The “rightfulness” argument only works if you prescribe to the world view that great wrong has occurred and must be corrected. Even then it collides with the argument that this is not the correct way to fix that problem – the Lidia Thorpe type argument.
The good vibes argument won’t probably get it over the line. And no matter how many celebrities, footballers, civil leaders are thrown at it, it is looks to be going down unless there is a major change in direction of the conversation.
I think we’ve all said what we can say about the Yes campaign and what it ought to do. Is anybody out there in a position of authority listening, though?
I would never try to draw hard conclusions from one point moves from poll to poll, but it is at least fair to say I reckon that this reinforces the rest of the polling that the Greens are not deriving meteoric support from their housing stance no matter how many anecdotal stories about renters they tell. Whether they are actually falling like this shows requires more data points to support.
As I’ve said before I do expect Labor’s position in the polls to deteriorate as interest rates and cost of living continues to rise. Cost of living help like childcare subsidy improvements will help… But many of them are just being swallowed up in price rises anyway. People have been patient with a new government over blaming them for inherited inflation but patience isn’t infinite.
One thing that occurs to me is that maybe the “Yes” campaign could look to New Zealand for inspiration.
They’ve long since settled with the local Maori population so well that they proudly do Haka’s and other indigenous cultural ceremonies, whether they’re White or Maori or other.
That could be an inspiring example of cultural integration that would be more likely to happen if the referendum was successful, rather than this vague patronizing message of “it’s the right thing to do, and if you disagree then you’re a lying racist.” and “just read the 200 page report.”
Honestly feels much better to call off the referendum.
Voters in a bad mood as the economic slide continues and interest rate rises begin to flow through aren’t going to be in a mood to create “more politicians” as some Qld family have called the voice.
If they insist on going ahead, they needa get Burney off the campaign immediately and find someone who can communicate. Dutton and Price do their needed jobs well (scare people), she doesn’t.
Just saw the Minerals Council add on same job same pay.
Absolutely f*cking disgusting. Evil. That is what is wrong with pay for politics.
Dishonest, lobby groups like that shouldn’t be allowed to do that kind of thing. Make the f*cking companies that hate paying a fair wage put their damn evil greedy shitty names on the f*cking add.
As may have already come across, I’m not entirely impressed.
@Kirsdarke: The difference is that the Brexit referendum committed the UK government to a huge country-changing policy that David Cameron was fundamentally against and campaigned against. He had to resign and be replaced by a Brexiter.
If No wins here, nothing happens which is kind of the point.
Kirsdarke – NZ never had to vote on it. They only vote on cool things like Cannabis and Alcohol licencing hours.
@WWP: The Minerals Council and Master Builders dishonest ad campaigns on same job same pay are appalling and going under the radar somewhat. I hope the unions are about to roll out counters and not let them have free swings with misinformation.
The Right are pulling out all stops to defeat the Voice. Powerful and well-funded vested interests require it. Politics, i.e. secure a big defeat for a Labor Government, apparently require it. Other opponents, on the left, seem to think that the authors of the Uluru Statement from the Heart got it wrong.
So how does the Yes case proceed from here? Being nice won’t do it. Going low? That won’t do it – getting down in the mud to wrestle a pig just means you get dirty too, the pig enjoys it and it beats you from experience.
It does require putting the case a lot more forcefully than is being done now. The campaign to date seems to have been designed on the assumption of only minor opposition, like marriage equality. The other major plank should be to call out bullshit immediately and very loudly.
“@WWP: The Minerals Council and Master Builders dishonest ad campaigns on same job same pay are appalling and going under the radar somewhat. I hope the unions are about to roll out counters and not let them have free swings with misinformation.”
Perhaps not the PM, but in addition to the above I’d love a nominated Minister to give them a massive broadside.
I think ever since the anti-Mining tax campaign the idea that Labor governments are easily pressured by advertising campaigns exists. One only has to look at how the pharmacies are behaving to see that they think they can defeat what is on the face of it a fairly popular policy.
If the Minerals Council hates something it’s probably a great idea…
B S Fairman
NZ voted on their flag and decided that they actually quite liked The Butcher’s Apron
“I think ever since the anti-Mining tax campaign the idea that Labor governments are easily pressured by advertising campaigns exists. One only has to look at how the pharmacies are behaving to see that they think they can defeat what is on the face of it a fairly popular policy.”
All the more important that the Govt and the Unions smashes this for the disgusting money grab at the expense of workers it is. I series of ads featuring WA’s own Gina and her views might be nice to see.
I’m voting Yes to the Voice, because the views of indigenous Australians on matters concerning them have been drowned out by the much more numerous and more seriously-taken non-indigenous majority for too long.
“NZ voted on their flag and decided that they actually quite liked The Butcher’s Apron”
For a country that gets a lot right they certainly butchered that in an embarrassingly pathetic way.
Chemists are dispensing prescribed medications to an increasing proportion of the population, owing to an aging population, new treatments being available plus the increasing medicalisation of problems that we used to just live with. They also retail over the counter medications, various consumer goods and have whole aisles dedicated to
quack remediesalternative treatments. They’ve got it made. What else do they want?Well, either way, at this rate, the Voice referendum will lose, and you can bet that if it does, Albanese is going to be painted as a weak and pathetic failure for the rest of this term.
And it will be hell for most of the Indigenous community, who would be able to see in the raw numbers how much the rest of Australia rejected them in a vote where it counted the most to what they wanted. Just step 1 in working towards reconciliation greeted with a hard “No.”
I have enough racist uncles to know what the typical right-wing opinion on Indigenous people is, the thought of that side being victorious makes me sick.
”
B.S. Fairmansays:
Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 10:18 pm
Ven – Your sample size to too small.
”
Maybe. But it happened Two consecutive times.
I propose we leave this assessment from Kyiv as the last word on yesterday’s shenanigans in Russia:
“An adviser to the Ukrainian defence minister described the Wagner rebellion in Russia as “the most ridiculous attempt at mutiny” ever.
“This only makes Russia weaker and makes us stronger,” Yuriy Sak told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend.
“What happened yesterday in Russia, it will probably go down in history as the most ridiculous attempt at mutiny that was ever attempted.
“It will have no bearing on our plans. We are on a mission to liberate our land and I just hope that our allies watching this ridiculous mutiny yesterday, they understand that the only way to end the war in Ukraine is to ensure that Ukraine defeats Russia militarily.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jun/25/russia-ukraine-war-live-prigozhin-to-go-to-belarus-as-rebellion-ends-and-wagner-troops-withdraw-from-rostov#top-of-blog
The history of Indigenous representative bodies and self-determination is full of promises by political leaders, only for them to walk away when it gets too hard. The NACC and NAC, the ADC, ATSIC, all of them abandoned when it no longer suited the government to keep them.
Like it or not, the voice referendum is on Albo. That became the reality on election night last year. It’s his job to stand by, pull out all the stops and see this through.
B.S. Fairman says:
Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 10:50 pm
I think ever since the anti-Mining tax campaign the idea that Labor governments are easily pressured by advertising campaigns exists. One only has to look at how the pharmacies are behaving to see that they think they can defeat what is on the face of it a fairly popular policy.
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98.6 says :
The Queensland Labor government treasurer Cameron Dick, brother to Milton, have ignored the QLD Resources Council’s $40 million advertising blitz calling for the increased coal royalties to be scraped.
And why would they ?
The increase in royalties will have given the 5 million QLD owners of that coal an EXTRA $8-10 billion by the end of this financial year.
“Well, either way, at this rate, the Voice referendum will lose, and you can bet that if it does, Albanese is going to be painted as a weak and pathetic failure for the rest of this term.”
Well far right wing crazy will also do whatever, if we are racist enough as a nation to vote it down, and all the historic evidence is we are very very deeply racist, but if we are indeed that racist and vote that racist, well most racists aren’t going to care, and sensible people that supported the voice will know it was a pathetic voice and a pathetic attempt but at least he tried. So I don’t think a loss is a problem for the Govt.
Albo should cancel the referendum, or only put the constitutional recognition element to the Australian people as a referendum proposal. Parliament could always legislate the Voice aspect without needing to enshrine it in the constitution.
Whatever strategy the Yes side are running, it is patently a total balls up. I am not sure that mobilising Labor Party volunteers for door knocking and information sessions will change things that much either.
“Albo should cancel the referendum, or only put the constitutional recognition element to the Australian people as a referendum proposal. Parliament could always legislate the Voice aspect without needing to enshrine it in the constitution.”
He might have got away with a Parliamentary strategy from scratch but he can’t change streams now, we just have to get to the end.
Evansays:
Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 11:12 pm
“Parliament could always legislate the Voice aspect without needing to enshrine it in the constitution.”
In a word. No.
Legislated bodies exist at the whim of the government of the day. Indigenous people asked for a constitutional voice. It’s up to all of us, including Albo, to get it done.
Cancelling the referendum would be a terrible look for the PM and the government, and the political repercussions would likely be whole lot worse than they will be if “No” gets up. Win or lose, Albanese’s got to see this one through to the end.
While a “No” result would be definitely be a blow to government morale and to Albo’s standing (and, more importantly, to Indigenous Australians), I don’t see it being Albo’s end either. Not on its own, in any case. (It’s a different story if it’s seen as just one in a series of blunders on the PM’s part.) Most referenda in Australia fail to get up, and the next election isn’t due for a year and a half after the election. That’s a lot of time for the government to put the loss behind them
The Brexit comparison doesn’t really work – IIRC, David Cameron had already said he would resign if “Leave” won.
Albo wont resign if the Voice goes down. The last PM if I remember didnt resign after losing the last referendum.
I hate to say it, but Dutton’s strategy on the Voice is plainly working. And the Yes campaign relying just on the vibe or appeals to emotion, just not working. Thomas Mayo is a major liability too. As others have said here repeatedly, the Yes campaign lacks a strong core message and a prominent good communicator to convey that message.
Also, I cannot fucking believe the nerve of people like Peter Dutton and Tony Abbott saying – with a straight face – that the referendum should be called off because of how terrible it would if “No” won! Talk about the mother of all bad faith arguments!
this collapse is not what I ordered for a Ashes test evening, hopefully it is a bump ball, but noone on the field thinks it is.
Been Theresays:
Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 9:53 pm
Vensays:
Sunday, June 25, 2023 at 7:22 pm
Meanwhile Rabbitohs are flogged by Cowboys.
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As they were by the Dragons, excepting the late fade from the Dragons.
Bunnies will not make the top eight!
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98.6 says :
Would anyone have believed that the Dolphins would at this point in time, be sitting at no 11 on the NRL ladder in their first year in the comp ?
What does it say about the bottom 6 ?
we are going to need a lot of rain, this pitch is not a pitch to be defending about 250 over 4 + sessions.
Better PM is 52-32. A rather underwhelming lead for Albanese given the voting intentions and the historic skew of this indicator.
Yes is going to win!
Mark my words!
“Better PM is 52-32. A rather underwhelming lead for Albanese given the voting intentions and the historic skew of this indicator.”
Yeah, and against Dutton.