Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

Newspoll finds no leading yes on the Indigenous Voice for the first time, along with softer results for Labor and Anthony Albanese.

The latest Newspoll from The Australian gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, in from 55-45 three weeks ago. This equals a result in March as the weakest Newspoll for Labor out of the eleven published since the Albanese government came to power, which have ranged from 54-46 to 57-43. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 38%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation steady at 6%.

Anthony Albanese records his softest personal ratings since the election, down three on approval to 52% and up five on disapproval to 42%. We must wait upon the equivalent results for Peter Dutton, which are not featured in the report (UPDATE: Up two on approval to 38%, down one on disapproval to 49%), and also the preferred prime minister results, which we are told are the tightest since the election, Albanese’s previous narrowest lead having been 54-28 in late April (UPDATE: In from 55-28 to 52-32).

Perhaps most sobering for the government is a finding that 47% intend to vote no in the Indigenous Voice referendum, up four on three weeks ago, eclipsing yes on 43%, down three. This comes from an expanded sample of 2303, together with a longer than usual field work period from June 16 to 24, which has been further juiced with the results of the previous poll to provide state breakdowns with substantial sample sizes and a sample of 3852 overall. Yes has the lead only in Victoria, by 48-41, and New South Wales, by 46-41. No leads by 54-40 in Queensland, 52-39 in Western Australia, 46-45 in South Australia and 48-43 in Tasmania.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

854 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 18 of 18
1 17 18
  1. It was predictable that the biggest use of the chatbot AI would be to automate flooding the internet with junk. And junk to game the search engines for ads isn’t even the worst of it; junk to game the search engines with misinformation isn’t even the worst of it; junk to game future AI with misinformation may be the worst of it long term.

    The great challenge for Google and AI is to be able to filter out all the noise. I don’t know if they’ll be up to it.

    The internet may end up coming back down to directories of trusted sites – like the original Yahoo was – with Google style search becoming useful only for searching within trusted green-lighted sites.

  2. frednk’s comment about it being a “win-win” for Labor if the Voice is defeated as long as Albanese’s polling doesn’t suffer is particularly vile for this site.

    When I see centrist takes on all manner of policy issues – housing, education, health care, whatever – the phrase “banality of evil” comes to mind. The most destructive things in the world are bad systems and bad structures, not individuals. When bad systems and bad structures are normalised and defended, in a nauseating display of respectability politics, and when any effort to improve society at a systems level is derided as absurd, ridiculous, and impossible, that is what evil looks like the vast majority of the time.

  3. Hopefully this result on the Voice might get people donating, volunteering, and having conversations with those who are confused or misinformed.

Comments Page 18 of 18
1 17 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *