The latest Newspoll from The Australian gives Labor a two-party lead of 54-46, in from 55-45 three weeks ago. This equals a result in March as the weakest Newspoll for Labor out of the eleven published since the Albanese government came to power, which have ranged from 54-46 to 57-43. On the primary vote, Labor is steady at 38%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens down one to 11% and One Nation steady at 6%.
Anthony Albanese records his softest personal ratings since the election, down three on approval to 52% and up five on disapproval to 42%. We must wait upon the equivalent results for Peter Dutton, which are not featured in the report (UPDATE: Up two on approval to 38%, down one on disapproval to 49%), and also the preferred prime minister results, which we are told are the tightest since the election, Albanese’s previous narrowest lead having been 54-28 in late April (UPDATE: In from 55-28 to 52-32).
Perhaps most sobering for the government is a finding that 47% intend to vote no in the Indigenous Voice referendum, up four on three weeks ago, eclipsing yes on 43%, down three. This comes from an expanded sample of 2303, together with a longer than usual field work period from June 16 to 24, which has been further juiced with the results of the previous poll to provide state breakdowns with substantial sample sizes and a sample of 3852 overall. Yes has the lead only in Victoria, by 48-41, and New South Wales, by 46-41. No leads by 54-40 in Queensland, 52-39 in Western Australia, 46-45 in South Australia and 48-43 in Tasmania.