Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 52, Coalition 42 (open thread)

Essential’s voting intention numbers still look rosy for Labor, but with troubling signs for them beneath the surface.

The latest fortnightly voting intention numbers from Essential Research, which include a 6% undecided component (up one on last time), show Labor recovering a primary vote lead by holding steady at 32% while the Coalition drops two to 30%, with the Greens also down two to 14% and One Nation up two to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is unchanged with Labor 52% and the Coalition on 42%, although the vagaries of rounding means undecided gains a point to 6%.

The report also features its month leader favourability ratings, which differ from its more conventional monthly leadership ratings in having respondents rate the leaders on a scale of zero to ten. This provides further evidence with a downturn for Anthony Albanese, whose positive rating (for ratings of between seven and ten) is down five to 36%, with neutral (four to six) up two to 32% and negative (zero to three) up three to 27%. Peter Dutton’s positive rating is up four to 27%, recovering from a three-point dip last time, with neutral down two to 32% and negative down one to 34%.

Perhaps relatedly, a monthly read of the national mood, in which respondents are asked if the country is on the right or wrong track, records a pronounced worsening in sentiment, with wrong track up nine on last month to 47% and right track down eight to 33%. This is comfortably the worst result shown on an accompanying chart going back to February 2022, which shows a surge of positive sentiment after the government came to power last May that has now worn off entirely.

A suite of questions on government action on economic issues find substantial majorities saying the government is not doing enough to relieve cost-of-living pressures (75%), ensuring affordable and secure rentals (69%) and ensuring a fair income tax system (48%). The government scores better, but not overwhelmingly positive, on a corresponding set of questions about environmental issues. A head-to-head question on whether parliament works better with minor parties and independents holding the balance of power produced a statistical tie of 51% no and 49% for yes.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1148.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,416 comments on “Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 52, Coalition 42 (open thread)”

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  1. it could be said that other posters post irelivant coments much more then the poster our moderater dislikes i dont for example earlwood attacked a felow poster for no reason earlier today all becaus they support the oficial labor party positiobn on aukus

  2. on steves coment some candadaters in 2016 especialy ted crews who re invented him self as one of trumps strongist backers pointed out Trumps former friendship with the clintins andclaimed he was not a real conservative all the suprime courts culture war on abortion did did was help the democrats maintain control of the senate even winning a senate seat in very conservatie goergia

  3. Bidon makes lots of gaths and is not thegreatest speaker probaly a bit old but trump is only a year yunger then him and chuck grasley was re elected to an other 6 year senate term at the age of 88 last year and mckonal isat a simalar age despite trumps year long attacks on mckonal he won over welming backing of his caukus to be re elected senate leader and despite trumps backing mccarthy struggled to hold on to house leader and is now the weakist ever speaker

  4. Imagine thinking Chris Christie will rescue the world from Trump. The rank opportunist who was Trump’s biggest suck-ass in 2016 after his own candidacy bombed, only to be left hanging. No judgement, no character and no portion control. A disgusting joke of a candidate.

  5. Anyone here who has attended Redleaf Cafe at Double Bay.

    My beloved cousin Jason, one of the owners, has passed on.

    Private cremation, prior to his passing he asked me to pass his respects to all.


    Outflanking Trump to the Right on guns or anti-Wokeness (or other similar issue) is probably the most likely way to cut his vote the maximum possible but those trying to cut his vote are mostly doing so to try and win over swing voters Trump lost, in the same 2024 election cycle, and outflanking Trump to the Right would be risky in that department.

  7. Katich wrote, “this is England trying to save test cricket?”

    What a mindless, one eyed hypocrite you are. So it’s alright for Australia do nothing but bowl short, but not England?

  8. William Bowe @ #1398 Saturday, July 1st, 2023 – 10:06 pm

    I can’t quite make up my mind whether C@tmomma’s occasional tendency to say such things is demonstrative of quite extraordinary stupidity, or if it’s just the sort of thing you inevitably come out with from time to time if you can’t restrain yourself from giving voice to every thought that enters your head.

    I like to keep people guessing. 😉

  9. ‘Seriously, right-wing populism works on resentment’

    Particularly so in America, where the message is that anyone can succeed.

    So if you’re not a multi millionaire tech giant by the age of 30, you either have to accept that you’re a failure (in American terms; most people in the rest of the world just shrug their shoulder and get on with life) or that some dark force stopped you.

    It’s also why there’s so many mass killings….another path to 15 minutes of fame.

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