The latest fortnightly voting intention numbers from Essential Research, which include a 6% undecided component (up one on last time), show Labor recovering a primary vote lead by holding steady at 32% while the Coalition drops two to 30%, with the Greens also down two to 14% and One Nation up two to 7%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure is unchanged with Labor 52% and the Coalition on 42%, although the vagaries of rounding means undecided gains a point to 6%.
The report also features its month leader favourability ratings, which differ from its more conventional monthly leadership ratings in having respondents rate the leaders on a scale of zero to ten. This provides further evidence with a downturn for Anthony Albanese, whose positive rating (for ratings of between seven and ten) is down five to 36%, with neutral (four to six) up two to 32% and negative (zero to three) up three to 27%. Peter Dutton’s positive rating is up four to 27%, recovering from a three-point dip last time, with neutral down two to 32% and negative down one to 34%.
Perhaps relatedly, a monthly read of the national mood, in which respondents are asked if the country is on the right or wrong track, records a pronounced worsening in sentiment, with wrong track up nine on last month to 47% and right track down eight to 33%. This is comfortably the worst result shown on an accompanying chart going back to February 2022, which shows a surge of positive sentiment after the government came to power last May that has now worn off entirely.
A suite of questions on government action on economic issues find substantial majorities saying the government is not doing enough to relieve cost-of-living pressures (75%), ensuring affordable and secure rentals (69%) and ensuring a fair income tax system (48%). The government scores better, but not overwhelmingly positive, on a corresponding set of questions about environmental issues. A head-to-head question on whether parliament works better with minor parties and independents holding the balance of power produced a statistical tie of 51% no and 49% for yes.
The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1148.
pukka @ #1351 Saturday, July 1st, 2023 – 6:16 pm
Same same.
The only way we get better and fairer legislation is with more progressive crossbenchers.
Rex
Yes, I agree – the current crossbenchers aren’t progressive enough.
zoomster @ #1354 Saturday, July 1st, 2023 – 6:24 pm
I think I know what you’re cunning plan is.
You’re going to run as a community Independent to split the Indy vote to help get Labor up.
😉
Asha @ #1327 Saturday, July 1st, 2023 – 4:58 pm
Wall Street will have had enough of the clown show and its instability.
They will back ‘steady as you go’ GOP and Dem candidates through their mainstream corporate media channels that will serve their interests in a less volatile way.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 5:09 pm
#Tesla has started the third quarter of 2023 in Australia with another huge price drop, making both the top selling Model 3 and the Model Y electric vehicles the cheapest they have ever been. https://t.co/95exTKtCXR— RenewEconomy (@renew_economy) July 1, 2023
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Best news of the day.
Rex:
And just like in 2016, it won’t make any damn difference. Do you really think the average Trump supporter still consumes mainstream media? Have you been paying any attention for the last eight years?
The clown show is in control.
If Minns NSW Labor engages in these attacks on the ICAC by de-fanging it, then NSW voters should take to the streets Paris style.
FFS, Rex.
Asha @ #1356 Saturday, July 1st, 2023 – 6:44 pm
I think mainstream media have infiltrated social media platforms enough now and reach most people up to the age of 70. It’s a lot different to the Trump POTUS era.
Asha @ #1358 Saturday, July 1st, 2023 – 6:48 pm
What ?
Rex Douglas @ #1360 Saturday, July 1st, 2023 – 6:51 pm
No matter which party is in power, NSW voters always know they have the best government money can buy.
Rex:
I think you will find that quite the opposite has happened.
Why would the NSW Government defang ICAC? It gets rid of Liberal Premiers.
Rex:
As far as I can tell, Minns hasn’t said anything to even remotely hint that he’s considering any changes whatsoever to how ICAC operates. You’re getting outraged over a purely hypothetical scenario you have concocted in your own mind.
Asha @ #1364 Saturday, July 1st, 2023 – 6:59 pm
‘there is an appetite for change’ – https://www.9news.com.au/videos/national/premier-refuses-to-accept-icac-findings/cljibklg600120jphmahtjrwx
I’m a bit of a tart for a good book fair.
Today I bought a copy of the 1968 Pelican History of Britian Vol 3: industry and Empire by E. j. Hobsbawm.
Turning to a random page I guffawed out loud at this passage:
Britain, we may say, was becoming parasitic rather than a competitive economy, living off the remains of world monopoly, the underdeveloped world, her past accumulations of wealth and the advance of her rivals. As Britain ceased to be the workshop of the world, it became, the best country in the world to be rich and leisured in; a place for foreign millionaires to buy themselves estates (p 192).
55 years since it was published never has a true word has been spoken on the UK.
Minns didn’t say anything about “an appetite for change”, that was the reporter.
“ If you see Keir Starmer at Pride this weekend, make sure he gets the reception that he deserves.Labour have thrown LGBTQ people under a bus – and they must not be allowed to use Pride for cynical political purposes.My new column https://t.co/VOOG1GLJmu— Owen Jones (@OwenJones84) June 30, 2023”
Fuck off owen.
Confessions:
Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 5:03 pm
[‘I’ve said it all along: Barring his death, Trump will be the Republican nominee.’]
We can live in the hope that in one session, his next Big Macs x 3, large fries x 3, polished off with caramel thick shakes x 3 will be his undoing. If that doesn’t work, excessive levels of cortisol in his system, in the face of the multiple indictments he’s facing, will be the final straw – no pun intended. He’s in deep shit & he knows it, his machismo is the camouflage of a deeply troubled old man, who coincidently shows no signs of grey hair.
Wouldn’t it be good to have an opposition party that would see the need for the common good of the nation?
Instead of saying no to everything.
Like support for the HASS, insufficient as it is according to the Greens, but still a start.
Much, much better than nothing, which we are looking at now.
I could provide more examples but you all know what they are.
It’s a shame that Labor needs to get support from the LNP to progress policies that help people in need.
I never thought it would come to this, but here we are, Greens supporting the LNP.
Well done you!
Poor Charlotte. Carrying around all that confusion about ‘the Liberal party’ in her head.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/during-high-school-i-used-to-roll-my-eyes-at-feminists-then-i-joined-the-liberal-party-20230627-p5djtd.html
The only criticism of ICAC that I heard from Chris Minns is that it took far too long to deal with Gladys and Darryl, a proposition that seems to have agreement across the board.
If judged by cleavage? Oh, & good to see you’ve settled, Andrew.
Figures printed in the May budget forecast a surplus of $4.2 billion for the 2022-2023 financial year. New figures from the federal Finance Department show the surplus at the end of May sitting at $19 billion.
You call that a budget surplus? This is a budget surplus. 😆 And the Opposition is apoplectic. Gives new meaning to back in black.
My 2 cents
I think Biden looks frail – slow stilted walk, flat mono-tonal speech… I’m not saying he is frail. But looks is what matters. The risk with RFK is splitting the Dem vote. If Fox is pumping for him, little wonder, apart from the crap he spouts on Covid.
I don’t think Trump will be the nominee. Jack Smith will see to that. The latest is he is talking ‘in session’ with Giuliani, and campaign official Mike Roman is looking like a flipper. And the big money has turned – Americans for Prosperity/Koch. Murdoch too. At the least, campaigning per se will be seriously handicapped.
Christie is the one to watch. He running full steam already. Speaks well, quick on his feet, and has got all the inside filth stories. His latest broadsides are at billionaire Jared. He would tear Trump to shreds in any debate. If he promises a pardon, and puts himself up as the only one who can (pukey cliché alert) heal the nation, then he’s in. (DeSantis no chance>)
Biden vs a ‘healing’ Christie with RFK as spoiler – Christie could well do it.
(Anyone else watching Maestro in Blue? – just come across it)
From my newsfeed:
Washington Post – ”During meetings in Kyiv, [CIA Director] William Burns was told of Ukraine’s ambitious goal to retake territory and push Moscow into talks by the end of the year”
https://apple.news/AKYbKEd-UQK6WFe0YFk0Lbw
Been There:
Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 7:25 pm
[‘Wouldn’t it be good to have an opposition party that would see the need for the common good of the nation?’]
If both ends of the political divide were in unison, that’s when we should be worried. Pepsy.
Princeplanet says:
Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 8:06 am
With regard to AP Qld premier , I think the most stark reminder of how biased our media is would be the coverage of Berejiklians dealings by the the steak and kidney branch of the murdochracy. She was a good woman done wrong by a ” bad bloke” many Queenslanders mulled over the possibility of this kind of response from our Courier Mail ( which indefatigably attacks the ALP government of AP every single day) should it have been AP who behaved like Gladys ( woman who saved Australia TM)
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
98.6 agrees :
Princeplanet, you are indeed a prince among men.
PAP would have been front page news, 2nd page news, 3rd page news, and every page in the Courier Mail from here to eternity.
I get the Courier mail every day and PAP is attacked every day on the front page and usually another 4 or 5 pages inside.
Still PAP is still there after 8 years and, at this stage, I firmly believe she will be there for as long as she wants to.
She is in the same mould as Dan Andrews.
Both are true Labor legends.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 6:21 pm
pukka @ #1351 Saturday, July 1st, 2023 – 6:16 pm
Labor candidate is first on the ballot and LNP last in the Fadden by election.
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98.6 questions :
What percentage is the donkey vote worth ?
Even if it’s one or two percent, every little bit helps.
Rex Douglassays:
Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 6:35 pm
Asha @ #1327 Saturday, July 1st, 2023 – 4:58 pm
Rex:
Wall Street will not entertain Trump.
…and?
Wall Street will have had enough of the clown show and its instability.
They will back ‘steady as you go’ GOP and Dem candidates through their mainstream corporate media channels that will serve their interests in a less volatile way.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Smart and rational thinking BUT we are not dealing with smart and rational thinkers with the 74,222,958 who voted for Trump last time.
Is anybody out there ?
Oh, I forgot, it’s Saturday night.
I’ll take a short break and come back after I do my competitions.
I don’t know why anyone thinks Trump will be President again.
It ain’t gonna happen.
Trump will be the Republican nominee. Nothing is stopping this except him dropping dead. He may be jailed, but he will still be the nominee.
The pathetic fat-ass Christie, who please never forget was the first mainstream Republican to endorse Trump in 2016, will be completely humiliated once again. That psychopath DeSantis will be ground into dust. None of the other jokers running for the Republican nomination are going anywhere, Trump will wipe the floor with all of them; the Republican Party is his personal cult no matter what.
So Trump will be the nominee. And it’s obviously too early to say that he will beat Biden, but the fact that an actual cadaver is the only thing standing in the way of Trump winning, quite possibly winning from prison, goes to show that the USA is a deeply dysfunctional superpower in possibly terminal crisis, and that entering into anything like AUKUS was and is an act of gross, criminal, negligent stupidity on the part of the ALP.
Putin has become a laughing stock…
Any chance you could share next week’s lottery numbers too?
French security forces have been overwhelmed since the death of 17-year-old Nahel M, shot at point-blank range by a police officer after he was pulled over for traffic offences in Nanterre. The shooting was filmed and contradicted initial police claims they acted in self-defence.
With a domestic intelligence note, seen by Le Monde, warning that riots could become increasingly “widespread” and go on for “the coming nights”, Emmanuel Macron was under growing pressure to impose a state of emergency.
Chris Christie’s currently polling around 1-3%. That’s a serious hill to climb in six months.
I don’t know why people think the GOP establishment coming out against Trump will make a difference. They did that in 2016, remember?
Mostly Interesed
Nice pick up. Eric Hobsbawn is one of my favourite historians. His “Age of ” series is a classic.
The NSW right nommos argue for a right wing policy agenda because according to them, electorally that is all that is practical. A left agenda would, result in electoral disaster. So how do they explain the Andrews hegemony? They must look across the Murray with envy at the sight of a genuine Labor government doing radical things and and being reelected again and again and…again.
Seriously, can someone please explain to me what exactly is supposed to change the mind of a person who – right now, in July 2023, after everything that has happened – is still planning to vote for Trump in the Republican primaries.
They weren’t bothered by him mocking a disabled reporter or the pussy-grabbing comments or the fact that he clearly wants to root his own daughter or his deranged ALL-CAPS Twitter rants or how nearly every person who worked in his administration now loathes the man or his suggestion to nuke a hurricane or his suggestion that Covid could be treated by drinking bleach and exposing your insides to the sun or his payment of hush money to the porn star he slept with or his tax evasion or the way he repeatedly and brazenly scams his own supporters out of large sums of money or his connections to Putin or his refusal to accept the results of a democratic election or his incitement of an attempted coup or his habit of stealing classified documents or having his late wife (who accused him of rape) buried on his golf course for tax purposes or being found guilty of rape in a civil court or, well, you get the picture.
Just what would bother these people?
Asha
Haha. Can’t help you with lotto numbers.
Chris Christie is up to 9% in some polls. Write him off at your peril. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Koch brothers, minus 1, put the $70 Million in his pocket.
The Repugs have made it hard for anyone else to win the Primary season except for Trump, but a contested convention is always on the cards.
dont know whiy rex and naf seem to find any way to atempt to undermine labor like the nonsence that charmerswould chalinge albanese now minns has said nothing to suggest he will cut icac funding in fact he promised to increase it and gto take power away from government
So the line out of the Opposition mouth from Queensland, Ted O’Brien, is that it was only dumb luck that led to the surplus under Labor. 🙄
Someone should tell Ted that they probably got there simply by not giving money away, hand over fist, like the Coalition did.
Aaron newton,
Some people are simply evil. And put their energy in to proving it every day
I can’t quite make up my mind whether C@tmomma’s occasional tendency to say such things is demonstrative of quite extraordinary stupidity, or if it’s just the sort of thing you inevitably come out with from time to time if you can’t restrain yourself from giving voice to every thought that enters your head.
Rex Douglas @ #1359 Saturday, July 1st, 2023 – 6:50 pm
That could be true but it’s also mostly beside the point. We’re talking about “the average Trump supporter”. There aren’t enough of those to elect Trump without help from other cohorts. Never have been and never will be.
So it doesn’t matter where they consume their misinformation from or how successful mainstream players have been in infiltrating those placecs. What matters is what the independent, non-blindly-Trump-supporting voters are up to. And probably women and non-whites/minorities too, given that the Supreme Court seems to be doing everything it can to piss them off.
Re Asha @9:18. ”Just what would bother these people [Trumpists]?”
If you could somehow convince enough of them that Trump is actually a closet liberal (in in the American sense, not “Liberal”). That he is secretly “woke”. That he secretly plans to crack down on guns. Something like that.
Seriously, right-wing populism works on resentment. That someone else, especially a despised “other”, is getting an unfair advantage over you. That you are being hoodwinked, robbed blind and generally being made a fool of. You somehow need to convince a large chunk of them, say about 10%, that Trump is making patsies of them. At least the case of working class Trumpists, that is actually true.