The Age/Herald has a Resolve Strategic poll which finds no sign in the ongoing weakening of support for an Indigenous Voice, to the extent of being the first significant poll to find no in front, albeit by a 51-49 margin that places the difference inside the margin of error. This followed a question in which respondents were told of the referendum question wording and the fact of voting being compulsory. Minus the latter prompt, 42% were in favour, 40% opposed and 18% undecided.
State breakdowns suggest the proposal is also falling short on the other leg of the dual majority requirement, with majorities in favour in only three states: by 53-47 in New South Wales, 56-44 in Victoria and 57-43 from a tiny sample in Tasmania, with no leading 56-44 in Queensland, 51-49 in Western Australia and 52-48 in South Australia. The national results are from the pollster’s latest national survey, which reached 1606 respondents and was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Sunday, while the state results pad out the sample with findings from last month’s poll, which had yes leading 53-47. Voting intention numbers will presumably follow at some point in the next day or two.
In an emerging pattern, it’s a very different story from Essential Research, which according to a report in The Guardian finds 60-40 in favour on its forced response Indigenous Voice question, effectively unchanged on its 59-41 result a month ago. A separate report in The Guardian tells us Essential’s fortnightly poll also included a regular suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which found Labor favoured to handle issues including cost of living, interest rates and government debt, together with its more traditional strengths of health and welfare, climate change and security of work.
Respondents were asked how much or how little they felt various factors were to blame for rising interest rates, but the results are hard to interpret without seeing the question wording and response structure. For this we must await the release of the full report later today – together with voting intention numbers, on which The Guardian’s report is silent, though they are presumably favourable to Labor given the “best party to handle” responses.
And then we hear from someone else and I want to vote yes even more. 🙂
Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 9:06 am
I’m voting yes but the more we hear from Pi the more I want to vote no.
Have you stumbled upon the rationale for the “not in your face Yes vote” campaign ?
@Jeremy: Where’s Indigenous people’s equal life expectancy?
They’re the disadvantaged ones on a host of measures. The Voice just guarantees what they should already have but in practice haven’t – an effective means of lobbying government on things that affect them. Successive governments have done unto Indigenous people to try and fix the gap and it hasn’t worked. It’s time to try listening TO Indigenous people instead of just inflicting policies on them selected by white people.
Well that’s strange comments between BK #28 to Grant #48 just vanished.
Grime @ #54 Tuesday, June 13th, 2023 – 9:29 am
All is well,I reloaded My PC at the weekend and ticked the annon box in C+.
A very disturbing observation about the bus crash, is that the high number of casualties was probably caused by the fact that the bus toppled directly onto the corrugated steel crash barrier lining the roundabout, and that barrier came straight up through the window line as the bus fell over and slid forward. Horrible. Seatbelts would not have helped in the slightest.
Theres been a few little things that have hurt the yes vote
Albo sobbing when he announced the question
Linda Burney saying the voice would have stopped the problems in Alice Springs but couldn’t explain how
Marcia Langton and Noel Pearson making small comments that might have rubbed people the wrong way
Stan Grant
The yes campaign has been nonexistent
We do have data from the Implicit Association Test from Australia that suggests that political leaning is associated with scores. See:
https://search.informit.org/doi/abs/10.3316/informit.150032703197478
That being said, Pi remains misguided in carving up people using a false dichotomy of “racist” and “non-racist”. We all have a degree of implicit bias. Based on the data, Aboriginal and Torres Straight Islander respondents have a bias towards black faces even. Further, Pi is very misguided in thinking that an argument of castigating those that are planning to vote No will somehow persuade them to vote Yes is persuasive.
So, what can the Yes campaign do? Look at the stated reasons for voting intentions. The most frequent concern of those voting No is that it is divisive. This is what needs targeting (and not making worse as Pi’s argument does). I would suggest a message that we are already divided in our society. That we heal division in Australia by providing a Voice to those that do not have one. It is effectively an equity over equality argument without getting into the philosophical weeds.
https://linqbuslines.com.au/location/bus-hire-hunter-valley.html
Mexican BMW,
NOt only has the YES campaign been nonexistent, it was also not part of the ALP’s pre-election platform.
I had some spare time on the weekend and had the ALP campaign launch on in the background on this link. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwaufW2XRHQ.
Whilst there is alot of pro-reconciliation positioning, there is no mention of the referendum. Not a squeek.
Its quite extraordinary when you think about it. They were either downplaying the referendum because it might damage their election success, or they were taking a YES vote for granted.
yabba – If the bus was travelling at any speed it would likely slid into the barrier on its side as opposed to directly toppled onto it. I am sure the accident investigation people are working very hard on it.
I remember the horror of the Grafton and Kempsey bus crashes and how this bus does not look as badly damaged.
Chris Christie is on CNN right now really laying out the case against Trump an the sort of person he is. He’s communicating very well.
Griff, you don’t convince racists to not be racist by trying to understand them, or by cajoling them, and certainly not by appeasing them. You silence them by making them understand that their beliefs are unacceptable.
You want to do something that will better support the yes vote? good for you. Good luck and I mean that. But I’m not going to stop calling out blatant racism when I see it, as we’ve seen right here. You want to give them a tummy tickle. I’m not going to do that.
Chris Christie was an effective lawyer. So I would expect him to be able to prosecute the case in public opinion well.
Of all the contenders for the Republican nomination, I think Christie and Hutchinson are probably the most based in reality. Therefore they have no chance.
Essential voting figures now online.
https://essentialreport.com.au/reports/federal-political-insights
Kevin Bonham’s comments on twitter below…
#Essential Raw primaries (cannot be compared with other polls as including undecided deflates primaries) ALP 32 L-NP 32 Grn 16 ON 5 UAP 1 other 9 und 5.
Their “2PP+” 52-42 to ALP (=55.3 2PP, up 0.6). My estimate 55.6 (-0.8)
Essential tends to have very high GRN vote.
The WA Government is in the process of updating abortion laws. This will likely tear apart the Liberal Party that has a small rump wanting to modernise, but is controlled behind the scenes by right wing religious loons.
B.S. Fairman @ #61 Tuesday, June 13th, 2023 – 10:07 am
You can see from the photo that the barrier is under the bus. You can also see the skid marks across the big white stripes. I pointed out yesterday that the bus should have been making a left turn immediately it entered the roundabout from Wine Country Drive, and not have gone onto the main roundabout for any more than about 20 metres. If it had failed to complete that sharpish left turn it would have fallen onto its right hand side, and the front of the bus would have been facing the opposite direction to where it ended up. I surmise that the driver deliberately did a full circle around the whole enormous roundabout, and came unstuck trying to exit via the on ramp to the expressway towards Singleton, where he should have gone in the first place.
Grant Ex Libris
I have had some involvement with investigating truck crashes and bus safety. I would say that most large operators in both industries take safety, including driver training, very seriously. The problems almost always apply to smaller cowboy operators as you say.
I think one particular problem for both groups is that the pool of trained drivers for buses and trucks is mostly old and approaching retirement. Some stopped driving during covid. The industry is not an attractive employer to young people. During covid, especially in trucking, there was pressure to get more drivers on the road, and I fear that training standards slipped, especially among smaller operators. If the NSW bus crash details are as reported, there needs to be checking of the safety and training culture in that operator.
The barriers on the western highway have had some consequences. Mechanics won’t service tricks unless they are 3 meters off the fog line, so towing is must. Truck towing companies are getting a lot of work so the trucks have to sit just on the side for hours.
Yabba
It is very hard to piece together crashes from photos alone. Half the time when a driver loses control, the vehicle is just as likely to depart the road on the inside of a curve as on the outside. That is, half the time they go off the curve on the outside from excess speed and lack of adhesion. The other half of the time they go off on the inside from over-correction/panic when losing control, and skid or spin the vehicle off the inside of the curve.
Steel armco safety barriers are not that safe when hit. They can act as a spear and penetrate a vehicle body if hit end on. People have been advocating wire rope safety barriers for decades as being far safer. However they are difficult to install on the inside of a curve with radius under 100 metres, because you can’t keep sufficient tension in the wires.
The main problem with wire rope barriers is that they cost more to maintain, and in an era when all governments (state/federal, Labor/Liberal) have tended to cut funding for road maintenance and safety in real terms, asset managers are reluctant to spend money on wire rope barriers.
https://roadsonline.com.au/saving-lives-on-country-roads-the-potential-for-flexible-safety-barriers-on-au-roads/
Labor have enabled the referendum, it is not for Labor to get it across the line.
Yabba – Interesting point. How does a bus end up falling to the left taking a left? Your hypothesis about doing a lap(s) of the roundabout might be right.
Pi says:
Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 10:15 am
Griff, you don’t convince racists to not be racist by trying to understand them, or by cajoling them, and certainly not by appeasing them. You silence them by making them understand that their beliefs are unacceptable.
You want to do something that will better support the yes vote? good for you. Good luck and I mean that. But I’m not going to stop calling out blatant racism when I see it, as we’ve seen right here. You want to give them a tummy tickle. I’m not going to do that.
______________
Merely pointing out that your argument is based on a false premise 😉
Drove a Tesla Y the other day, it was pretty good at getting upset if you drifted out of your lane. I wonder if that would be overall safer than removing the ability to move off freeways.
Whatever happened the drive is in custody without bail for a reason.
I see Labor has now guaranteed a minimum $500m/yr for social/affordable housing.
Just shows how mean-spirited this right wing Govt really is that this wasn’t in the original legislation.
This change would never have come about without the Greens fighting for legislation improvements.
“Whatever happened the drive is in custody without bail for a reason.”
Not any more and police get first choice to refuse bail and will do so automatically in a death case
Australia is fundamentally a country of intellectually unsophisticated white bogans. Without bipartisan support, this referendum was always going to be an uphill battle. The good news is that any improvement to indigenous conditions can be made without the Voice, by simply consulting with First Nations. To the extent that the Voice is – by design – inherently powerless, the only real outcome of the whole thing is to give racists something to rail against.
Labor being the preferred right wing party against the L/NP does not automatically mean it is a good Govt.
Linq Buslines, from their blurb:
——————–
“Bus and Coach Charter in Hunter Valley
For over 30 years, we have provided personalised, professional, and efficient transport coaches for our customers, giving our all to make the trip memorable.
We can cater to groups big and small, with a fleet of 57, 34, and 23 seat coaches. With luxury air conditioning and reclining seats, we make sure your trip will be stress-free and comfortable.
With the right bus for every occasion, we can transport ..school..sports teams…., or a group of wedding guests to the reception.
The Hunter Valley Fleet consists of luxury air conditioned coaches, fully seat belt equipped, comfortable reclining seating, DVD players and an experienced and friendly Coach Captain.
Professional drivers
Our professional and friendly staff are on hand to help you plan your next school, social, corporate, seniors or sporting event in Hunter Valley to ensure it is a memorable experience.
Over 30 years experience
Offering over 30 years experience in the Bus and Coach industry, our management team provide a professional, personal and efficient transport service. ”
__________________________
All sadly ironic. As Socrates says, finding and retaining good staff in the transport industry can be a serious problem. All of the other people associated with this company have been tarnished by one apparent idiot.
Mexicanbeemer @ #57 Tuesday, June 13th, 2023 – 9:44 am
I’ll give you the last one.
The rest, not so much. The first is probably a net positive. If you want your politicians to be emotionless robots, vote 1 ChatGPT.
it’ll be interesting to see what comes out of the greens and ALP party room meetings today when Amy reports on them. Personally, I’d like to see the greens now agree to pass the legislation. It’s still a dog of a policy, to be sure, but the $500m now being a floor not a ceiling is a worthy improvement. They can and should continue to point out that it’s still woefully inadequate and does nothing for renters, as Max C-M did this morning, but I think the crossbench have now gained sufficient improvements to pass it
Pi @ #45 Tuesday, June 13th, 2023 – 9:08 am
No Pi
The Bible-belt is on the lower north shore/hills district
The seats of Blaxland, Watson, McMahon et al are more noted for their high non-Christian and non-Anglo populations and are safe Labor seats
I understand that the Bus was coming from the Greta side of the roundabout, and travelling around to the Singleton exit, where it rolled over, and not from the Cessnock/North Rothbury side.
”
Peter Hartcher says that India has reached an inflection point and Australia looks set to benefit from its growing economic muscle.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/india-s-booming-and-that-s-excellent-news-for-australia-20230611-p5dfo2.html
”
Peter Hartcher: “Now, says Patel, “you have 1.4 billion people transacting with each other, all through a costless transaction system where the government bears the cost of making it work”. There is much less bureaucracy in the way of transactions and less corruption, he says.
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Together with major investment in physical infrastructure such as rail, there is a major program of investment in digital infrastructure. Incomes are growing, and the consumer economy is thriving. Together with a very healthy demographic structure – half the population is under 30 – India has reached an inflection point.
Modi is proving that good economic policy is good politics. The head of the centre-right think tank Indian Foundation, investment banker Shaurya Doval, says: “The most important reason for Modi’s political success is that people are seeing economic growth come into their own lives. We really think the next 25 years are all about economic growth.”
Yet India, little mentioned in Australian business debates or media coverage, is the elephant in the economic room.”
This is an interesting story in The Guardian.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/13/melbourne-bookstore-accuses-employee-of-breaking-confidentiality-by-discussing-pay-rise
I see pay transparency as a social good, so I hope that the court case results in an outcome that facilitates this.
I see the Greens partyroom has decided to keep negotiating for a better outcome for the HAFF and so they should.
Labor has started to bend and should be tested to bend some more during this sitting.
“Marcia Langton and Noel Pearson making small comments that might have rubbed people the wrong way
Stan Grant”
If you are saying these things ‘changed your vote’ well you might just be a racist, who was just looking for an excuse to vote no and will desperately cling to anything to make the lie to yourself that you aren’t a racist, less painful.
I think the Albo sobbing is in the same category.
That you need a campaign to convince you to vote yes, is a bad indicator for your efforts to convince yourself you are not a racist, but not that bad.
I’d forgive not understanding the link between the elements of the Statement from the Heart and improved conditions, because I’m not sure the voice on its own, as proposed is a significant step towards the healing that is a step toward improved lives for all first nations people, but that link has only been weakened because the voice has been made as weak as possible so the racists vote for it.
It is a sad indictment on our Country.
Like others, I’m happy for the Greens to keep trying for more for rest of this sitting, but with that concession made, if they haven’t passed it by the end of the fortnight, they are gonna be in my badbooks.
“The good news is that any improvement to indigenous conditions can be made without the Voice, by simply consulting with First Nations.”
And then you can ignore them! Just like you ignore the consultation that has already been done around the Uluru Statement that led to the Voice proposal!
WeWantPaulsays:
Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 11:30 am
“Marcia Langton and Noel Pearson making small comments that might have rubbed people the wrong way
Stan Grant”
If you are saying these things ‘changed your vote’ well you might just be a racist, who was just looking for an excuse to vote no and will desperately cling to anything to make the lie to yourself that you aren’t a racist, less painful.
——————————
If someone changed their vote because Marcia Langton said there wouldn’t be any more welcome to country then you could say that person is racist but it could also convince some undecided that think the welcome to country is overused to switch to no.
There is a story in the Australian today about all that went wrong with the Hunter Class frigate choice and design, and a lot of leaks from the DSR, which originally recommended scrapping the contract.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/the-45-billion-hunter-frigates-project-has-been-a-comedy-of-errors-from-day-one/news-story/0b551d71966156859c612b1d5709bf8e?amp&nk=7798043bba01b6e2b8cf57b1e29dd61c-1686618880
I can but agree. The government now has ample contractual (false promises), financial (over budget), capability (not enough missiles) and political (Its Liberals fault) reasons to cancel this turkey.
We should go back to building more Hobart AWDs immediately, and then transition to the proposed Spanish ASW frigate (F110), which was an adaptation of the Hobart AWD hull and systems. This has many advantages:
– continuous building for 9+ units
– quicker to finish and cheaper
– better armed
– cheaper to maintain, because we would end up with 12 ships of the same hull and engines.
The real change that needs to occur though, is a change to the processes, staffing and structure of the group within Defence that arranges these contracts. They won’t sack themselves. This won’t stop until Labor orders some organisational change.
At the risk of being biased, the people running major engineering projects like complex warship design and construction, ought to be trained engineers. We don’t insist on that. The USN does.
In brief – Western Australia will gain a 16th seat for the next Federal election. A redistribution drawing boundaries for 16 seats will begin later this year. Current enrolments mean that most of the state’s current districts will need to shed electors. The geography of the state points to the new seat being created in Perth’s east.
Why will there be a Redistribution?
One year after every Federal election, the Australian Electoral Commissioner is required to make a determination on the how many House of Representatives members each state will elect at the next election.
Commissioner Tom Rogers will make that determination in the last week of July. The determination will be made based on the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) quarterly population statistics. The latest population figures by state and territory, for the fourth quarter of 2022, will be released on Thursday this week.
The Commissioner has no personal choice in making the determination. The method is strictly defined in law. For states the Commissioner will apply the formula set out in Section 24 of the Constitution. For the Territories the Commissioner will use the formula set out in the Electoral Act. The Constitution also states that the Commissioner will use the “latest statistics of the Commonwealth”, a phrase the High Court and Parliament has determined will be the quarterly population statistics, that is Thursday’s ABS release.
Based on the trend in quarterly population statistics since 2020, it is certain that Western Australia will gain a seat with both Victoria and New South Wales set to lose a seat. Queensland is close to gaining a seat, but whether it does will depend on Thursday’s release. If Queensland’s numbers are unchanged, the changes in other states will reduce the House of Representatives from 151 to 150 seats at the next election.
https://antonygreen.com.au/prospects-for-the-federal-redistribution-in-western-australia/
The Voice is designed to be something that Parliament can ignore, in the same way that it always has
WWP
I think the Albo sobbing is in the same category
——————
Albo sobbing made it look like the voice was about him in the eyes of people that see this as a labor project.
The Voice was designed in consultation with First Nations groups, but you don’t like that outcome.
One final comment on defence and shipbuilding.
We know we need to move towards a stable local industry based on continuous production. Lots of senior leaders say that but the planning to achieve it needs to be more explicit for it to happen. That means working backwards from the number of ships required, and their service life, to know what drumbeat of locally built ships we should achieve.
So for example, if surface warships last 30 years, and we need 14-15 frigates or destroyers, that means one every two years, with the next class being designed while the current one is built. Same with submarines 8 to 10 lasting 30-35 years means a new SSN every 3 or 4 years. The same for patrol boats/OPVs.
Ship types there is not a sufficient demand for to justify continuous build local production e.g LHD, AO, LST, are the ones we should be comfortable buying offshore. I know this is obvious to regular posters here but I am still concerned about the apparent lack of such a published long term plan by defence.
“convince some undecided that think the welcome to country is overused to switch to no.”
There is no-one who isn’t thoroughly racist who thinks even maybe welcome to country / acknowledgement of country is overused. They might have been pretending to themselves that they were undecided, but it was a lie and a very shallow like.
It is a bit like the ‘deplorables’ comment from Hillary. Yeah it was stupid politics, but there were zero self identifying deplorables who were considering voting for Hillary.
WWP
There is no-one who isn’t thoroughly racist who thinks even maybe welcome to country / acknowledgement of country is overused. They might have been pretending to themselves that they were undecided, but it was a lie and a very shallow like.
———————————
Maybe but there doesn’t seem to be any other reason for the drop in yes vote unless Kos Samaras is right about rising interest rates.
“Albo sobbing made it look like the voice was about him in the eyes of people that see this as a labor project.”
Yeah well that lack of empathy (not understanding Albo’s emotions because they don’t have any because they don’t care about first nations because they are thoroughly racist) and partisan outlook (you are only going to be seeing this as a ‘Labor’ thing, if your are a partisan, and if you are that partisan you are probably racist, you support a party that has sought constantly to use racism to win votes and you are throughly racist), combined with a deep level of ignorance (if you know anything about the Statement from the Heart you know very well already it is not a labor project).
Again I don’t think there is a non zero sized set of Australians who lack that empathy, who are that partisan and who are that ignorant, but yet might have voted yes for the voice (presumably to sandbag their irrational, and quite false self-belief they aren’t racist)