The Age/Herald has a Resolve Strategic poll which finds no sign in the ongoing weakening of support for an Indigenous Voice, to the extent of being the first significant poll to find no in front, albeit by a 51-49 margin that places the difference inside the margin of error. This followed a question in which respondents were told of the referendum question wording and the fact of voting being compulsory. Minus the latter prompt, 42% were in favour, 40% opposed and 18% undecided.
State breakdowns suggest the proposal is also falling short on the other leg of the dual majority requirement, with majorities in favour in only three states: by 53-47 in New South Wales, 56-44 in Victoria and 57-43 from a tiny sample in Tasmania, with no leading 56-44 in Queensland, 51-49 in Western Australia and 52-48 in South Australia. The national results are from the pollster’s latest national survey, which reached 1606 respondents and was presumably conducted from Wednesday to Sunday, while the state results pad out the sample with findings from last month’s poll, which had yes leading 53-47. Voting intention numbers will presumably follow at some point in the next day or two.
In an emerging pattern, it’s a very different story from Essential Research, which according to a report in The Guardian finds 60-40 in favour on its forced response Indigenous Voice question, effectively unchanged on its 59-41 result a month ago. A separate report in The Guardian tells us Essential’s fortnightly poll also included a regular suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which found Labor favoured to handle issues including cost of living, interest rates and government debt, together with its more traditional strengths of health and welfare, climate change and security of work.
Respondents were asked how much or how little they felt various factors were to blame for rising interest rates, but the results are hard to interpret without seeing the question wording and response structure. For this we must await the release of the full report later today – together with voting intention numbers, on which The Guardian’s report is silent, though they are presumably favourable to Labor given the “best party to handle” responses.
Thank you Jactina Nampijinpa Price! We will stop this divisive voice, and we have you to thank for this momentum for the No camp. Also thanks to Warren Mundine and a few others.
I hope Clive Palmer joins as well. This voice must fail for the sake of this countries future.
I am absolutely not surprised by the 56-44 no result in Queensland, this increase for No has also come since the state opposition has announced they will be supporting No, A wise move by Crisafulli and will score him points for next years state election.
From previous thread:
All hail the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (sic), “fronted by Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson and backed by a pro-Brexit hedge fund billionaire and a Dubai-based investment group”:
“We at ARC do not believe that humanity is necessarily and inevitably teetering on the brink of apocalyptic disaster.
“We posit, instead, that men and women of faith and decisiveness, made in the image of God, can arrange their affairs with care and attention so that abundance and opportunity could be available for all.”
Signing up from Australia:
Tony Abbott
John Howard
John Anderson
Amanda Stoker
Andrew Hastie
… plus “Howard-era chief scientist” Prof Robin Batterham.
“Made in the image of God”, no less!
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/jun/13/tony-abbott-and-john-howard-join-jordan-peterson-led-group-looking-at-meaning-of-life
But … Guardian Essential diverges markedly from Nine-FauxFox’s Resolve on the Voice:
(from previous thread)
“Public support for the Indigenous voice to parliament is *holding steady and remains high*, the latest Guardian Essential poll shows, in contrast with other recent polls suggesting that support is sliding.
“The poll of 1,123 voters, published on Tuesday, found 60% of respondents were in favour of the voice, up one point on the previous survey, while 40% were opposed to it.”
“… Resolve and Newspoll recorded the biggest declines for the yes vote. But the Essential poll is more optimistic …”
Discuss …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/13/australians-support-for-indigenous-voice-steady-with-60-in-favour-essential-poll-finds
“I hope Clive Palmer joins as well.”
So do I, Daniel. What could possibly go wrong? 😉
I’ve updated the post to include the Essential Research Indigenous Voice numbers, which had escaped my notice.
Thanks, William.
A material difference in the major polls’ findings on support for the Voice. A conundrum for discussion here today?
(Discussing psephology on a psephology site? Now there’s a novel idea … 😉 )
I’m definitely in on discussing what is actually happening with support for the Voice. I’m perplexed what could account for the wildly varying results in these two data points. What worries me is that Resolve had the actual wording of the question and got the result it did. Does this indicate that, as of right now, people are inclined to in-principle support for the Voice in the abstract, but that this support has a tendency to vanish for respondents when the fact of their being asked to concretely change the Constitution to enshrine one is put to them?
Is anyone aware of any data which indicates what are the most common objections to changing the Constitution to enshrine a Voice to Parliament? It is definitely time for some outreach to voters who are currently No-inclined. Misinformation from the No-camp can be much better countered if we sort out which objections (and whatabouts, straw men and outright lies) are sticking and which aren’t.
“According to [Deputy Minister of Defence Hanna] Maliar, Ukraine’s Defence Forces have liberated the settlements of Lobkove, Levadne, Novodarivka, Neskuchne, Storozheve, Makarivka and Blahodatne.
She added that the group of offensive troops had advanced a total of 6.5 km, and the area of territory taken under Ukraine’s control is 90 square kilometres.”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/06/12/7406555/
So support between 50-60% for the Voice? That’s better than if both polls had been similar.
EA asks: “Is anyone aware of any data which indicates what are the most common objections to changing the Constitution to enshrine a Voice to Parliament?”
Essential offered a closed choice of four reasons:
‘… voters who opposed the voice were given four potential reasons for why they did so. About 34% said it would “divide Australians”, 33% said “it will give Indigenous Australians rights and privileges that other Australians don’t have”, 26% said “it won’t make a real difference to the lives of ordinary Indigenous Australians” and 7% said “Indigenous Australians don’t agree on it”.’
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/13/australians-support-for-indigenous-voice-steady-with-60-in-favour-essential-poll-finds
The main reasons people are turning against ‘The Voice’ are threefold.
Its racist. The sole criteria for participating in the voice to parliament is race.
Its undemocratic. Indigenous Australians get to vote twice. Everyone else once.
What happened to one vote one value?
Australians will only know the details AFTER the referendum.
Take your pick.
As long as the racists keep calling it racist, it’s a shoe-in.
Oliver Sutton @ Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 6:28 am:
Essential offered a closed choice of four reasons:
‘… voters who opposed the voice were given four potential reasons for why they did so. About 34% said it would “divide Australians”, 33% said “it will give Indigenous Australians rights and privileges that other Australians don’t have”, 26% said “it won’t make a real difference to the lives of ordinary Indigenous Australians” and 7% said “Indigenous Australians don’t agree on it”.’
=====================
Oliver, thank you. I see the first two reasons as potentially capturing the same broad objection, since ‘divide’ could be many respondents’ way of politely expressing ‘gives others what I won’t be getting’. If so, this is toxic for ‘Yes’ support. I would hope this objection could be brought down somewhat when it is borne in mind that Indigenous Australians continue to suffer, as they have all through this era of European settlement, from the consequences of always having decisions made for them on their behalf, by others who have only a passing acquaintance, if any, with the unique damage they have sustained as a people here. I’m very keen to hear ideas how this awareness can be made more relevant for voters when making this choice at the coming referendum.
Pi @ Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 6:47 am:
“As long as the racists keep calling it racist, it’s a shoe-in.”
==================
Black is white, up is down, 2+2=5 …
C@tmomma @ Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 6:27 am:
“So support between 50-60% for the Voice? That’s better than if both polls had been similar.”
===============
Yes, herding is always sus. The fact of Resolve putting in the wording of the question (if Essential did not do this as well) indicates what happens when the reality if a binding constitutional choice is brought to the front of the voter’s mind, though, which indicates we have sleeves to roll up in terms of getting those voters past the “Gosh, this is for real!” shock, and onto the “Yes, this is for real where we should be” road afterwards.
#weatheronPB
Humourless thin fog
has captured my cool damp world.
Houses fade away.
‘Indigenous Australians get to vote twice. ‘ That’s a new one. No explanation as to how that will be so, just a bold statement. I guess that’s how appeals to the wilfully ignorant roll.
Fact: with the Voice, everyone still only gets one vote to choose the Government. The Voice has no input into who forms Government.
Enough Already,
The Yes campaign certainly does need to roll up their sleeves. They also need to get out the vuvuzela, to borrow a cross-cultural reference. The ‘kitchen table conversations ‘ thing is just lame, I reckon. And, honestly, who’s going to sit around a table with friends pushing the Yes case and tell them that they feel like voting No?
c@t: ” I guess that’s how appeals to the wilfully ignorant roll.”
Racists are dumb. It is their most defining characteristic. It’s no surprise that the anti voice cohort is exactly the same SSM cohort. To them it’s just another culture war that they’re on the wrong side of. They don’t even know what they’re against. They just regurgitate other people’s talking points.
”
Jeremy C Brownesays:
Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 6:36 am
The main reasons people are turning against ‘The Voice’ are threefold.
Its racist. The sole criteria for participating in the voice to parliament is race.
Its undemocratic. Indigenous Australians get to vote twice.
”
No they don’t you M…..c id..t of the century.
That is lie and you know it.
Pisays:
Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 6:47 am
As long as the racists keep calling it racist, it’s a shoe-in.
The polling suggests you’re wrong.
goll: “The polling suggests you’re wrong.”
Not really. The racists have been a hard no from the get go. They didn’t even need to hear the question, and they’ve already lost members of their own parties because of it. That’s easy when it doesn’t matter what you say, they’re going to oppose it. As the date gets closer you’ll start seeing the white froth around their mouths as they get increasingly rabid. Time is not on their side.
The non racists, which is the great bulk of people, won’t even notice what’s going on until the referendum date approaches. Every sporting code that wants players and supporters, every business that wants to remain solvent, and every educational institution is going to support the voice. Time is on their side.
so we have our victorian poaster back who prodicted the end of andrews well he is victorias longist serving premier and the gallacher media beat up has not hurt labor iva
Two people who helped to bring us covid19data.com.au (Juliette O’Brien) and covidlive.com.au (Anthony Macali) have joined to develop OnlyFacts, to track climate data. Both were recognized in recent Kings Birthday Honours. Juliette writes, “Anthony and I have come together to answer our climate questions using the Covid data model: fast, transparent, comprehensive, granular data. … Our new project is called OnlyFacts. Here is our landing page where you can sign up to be notified when we launch.”
https://www.onlyfacts.com.au/
Pi
I hope your rationale becomes reality.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Paul Karp unpicks the latest Guardian Essential poll which finds that voters trust Labor over the Coalition to manage cost of living and inflation.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jun/13/guardian-essential-poll-mortgage-holders-interest-rate-hikes-rba-labor
David Crowe refers to the latest poll on the Voice, declaring that a tipping point has been reached.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-tipping-point-support-for-voice-falls-below-a-majority-20230612-p5dfto.html
The SMH editorial says the “Yes” campaign sorely needs a champion who can argue the case articulately and with passion.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/yes-campaign-sorely-needs-a-champion-20230611-p5dfo9.html
Chris Masters reports that Defence Force chief Angus Campbell attempted in late 2020 to hand back the medal he was awarded for his command of troops in Afghanistan after a damning report into war crimes committed by Australian soldiers was published. Apparently, Morrison kyboshed it.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/defence-chief-angus-campbell-tried-to-hand-back-his-afghanistan-medal-but-was-refused-20230612-p5dfs6.html
The wedding bus driver who crashed in the Hunter Valley, killing 10 passengers and injuring dozens more in Australia’s worst road disaster in nearly three decades, will face court this morning after being charged with a string of serious offences.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/nsw/ten-killed-dozens-injured-in-worst-bus-disaster-in-decades-as-driver-charged-over-tragedy-20230612-p5dfxw.html
The Australian understands passengers on the bus screamed at the driver, Mr Button, to slow down during the ride away from the wedding venue. Mr Button allegedly told passengers over the coach’s intercom “if you think that was fast … watch this” moments before he lost control of the bus at a roundabout, according to a report in The Daily Telegraph.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/driver-brett-andrew-button-charged-over-deadliest-bus-crash-in-three-decades/news-story/8db941f7d673f9645d274a83b5341a2d?amp
Michelle Grattan writes that the Brittany Higgins story continues its damaging trail, with no end in sight.
https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-brittany-higgins-story-continues-its-damaging-trail-with-no-end-in-sight-207500
Paul Bongiorno reckons the Liberals are embarking on a political kamikaze mission over the Higgins allegations. He says that all the evidence is that the former Coalition government, particularly the former prime minister Scott Morrison but also his then defence minister Linda Reynolds, contributed massively to any damage it suffered after Brittany Higgins went public with her story.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/06/13/liberals-brittany-higgins-bongiorno/
Emergency call-takers are resorting to pen and paper when their system crashes, with a backup computer system for Victoria’s troubled triple-zero service now more than two years overdue.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/triple-0-workers-literally-passing-post-it-notes-as-backup-system-delayed-again-20230608-p5df0u.html
Included in this article is a note from PwC to its big clients telling them how to dodge the new tax laws shortly before they were passed in Parliament in 2015. PwC was advising the Government on the design of these laws while advising its clients how to avoid them. Michael West reports.
https://michaelwest.com.au/the-problem-with-pwc-and-the-big-4-treason-is-the-business-model/
At least half a billion dollars will be spent on social and affordable housing each year in a shift the housing minister hopes will secure crossbench support for the federal government’s key housing bills this fortnight after weeks of negotiations and delays threatened the future of a core Labor promise, reports Rachel Clun.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-makes-housing-concession-ahead-of-senate-fight-20230612-p5dfx9.html
According to Angus Thompson and James Massola, recordings of a five-hour meeting involving Brittany Higgins and journalist Lisa Wilkinson that were leaked to the media have been referred to police to investigate whether a contempt of court has been committed by passing on sensitive documents originally meant for the Bruce Lehrmann criminal trial.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lehrmann-court-leak-of-wilkinson-recordings-referred-to-police-20230612-p5dfvh.html
Peter Hartcher says that India has reached an inflection point and Australia looks set to benefit from its growing economic muscle.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/india-s-booming-and-that-s-excellent-news-for-australia-20230611-p5dfo2.html
The mainstream media continues to beat the drums of war while voices of truth and reason are being silenced, writes Dr William Briggs.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/war-propaganda-machine-silencing-voices-of-truth,17606
This is Starmer’s moment. Thatcherism has collapsed, and the Tories are at each other’s throats, declares Polly Toynbee.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/12/keir-starmer-moment-thatcherism-collapsed-tories-existential-crisis
Maureen Dowd explains how Trump could campaign for the White House from the big house.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/how-trump-could-campaign-for-the-white-house-from-the-big-house-20230612-p5dfu1.html
The AFR’s editorial is concerned that America’s long Trumpian nightmare may be far from over.
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/america-s-long-trumpian-nightmare-may-be-far-from-over-20230607-p5deux
Nations go to war over the ideologies, religions, racism, social classes or economic policies. Trump represents nothing other than his own grievance, writes Robert Reich who says there will be no civil war over him.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/12/trump-civil-war-chances-documents-indictment
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Matt Golding
Peter Broelman
Andrew Dyson
John Shakespeare
Fiona Katauskas
Leak
From the US
UK Privileges Committee has found Boris Johnson knowingly misled Commons after rejecting central defence
MPs found no evidence to back his claim he was assured by officials that Covid guidance had not been breached – in fact they found opposite.
Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential election, is scheduled to be in a Miami federal courthouse on Tuesday at 3 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT) for an initial appearance in the case.
Accused of unlawfully keeping U.S. national-security documents and lying to officials who tried to recover them, Trump has proclaimed his innocence and vowed to continue his campaign to regain the presidency in a November 2024 election. Trump, who turns 77 on Wednesday, touched down in Miami at 2:54 p.m. (1854 GMT) in a private jet with his name emblazoned on the side.
Supporters gathered outside a nearby golf club he owns, where he was due to stay the night. “I HOPE THE ENTIRE COUNTRY IS WATCHING WHAT THE RADICAL LEFT ARE DOING TO AMERICA,” he wrote on his Truth Social social-media platform before departing from New Jersey.
Trump’s legal woes have not affected his popularity among Republican voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday found that 81% of Republicans thought the charges were politically motivated. The poll also found Trump continues to lead his rivals for the party’s presidential nomination by a wide margin.
Jack Waterford’s article on the Sofronoff inquiry is now more easily accessed:
https://johnmenadue.com/an-inquiry-of-self-limited-curiosity/
An international team of astronomers says it has found the 2nd-known Tatooine-like multi planetary system. At least 2 planets orbit both binary stars at once. At the moment only two planets are known in the TOI-1338/BEBOP-1 circumbinary system but more might be identified in the future, with similar observations as performed by the team. 1,300 light years away.
There is a key paragraph in the Guardian’s article, which sums up the realisation phase that the YES case is going through.
“The Indigenous leader Noel Pearson, a key architect of the voice, has warned that the yes campaign has “a lack of clarity” and called for supporters to focus on the constitutional recognition element of the proposal rather than the voice itself.”
The Voice is trying to be clever. It wants to do two things at once , ie constitutional recognition + Voice/advisory body. Instead of providing two reasons for voting YES, voters are finding two reasons for saying NO
This is actually a pretty fair summary of where Ukraine’s forces stand at the start of its counteroffensive to liberate its territory:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65881261
Thanks, BK.
Note you included the NZ Herald article on the Hunter bus crash…I’ve found that they often report Aus news that the locals are slower to report.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. Labor should not throw in the towel on the Voice. The differences between these two polls show the majority still support the voice, even if there is enough uncertainty for some to sow confusion.
Labor should promote a standard wording for the Voice to ensure consistency in polling.
Lehrmann court leak of Wilkinson recordings referred to police
June 12, 2023 — 8.00pm
LNP pigeons returning home to roost ?
A lot id uncertain about the Ukraine war as well. But if Russia is doing so well, why is Putin appealing to “patriotism” and referring to “difficult times”.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2023/06/12/vladimir-putin-appeals-russians-patriotism/?breaking_live_scroll=1
MrSquiggle: “It wants to do two things at once , ie constitutional recognition + Voice/advisory body. ”
There’s no real secret why the racists are against the voice; They’re against indigenous reconciliation. It doesn’t take a blinding intellect to figure that out. As you’ve just demonstrated. The only thing you’ve done is prove that your opposition to the voice is grounded in your racism.
I’m a soft ‘no’ and I’m not a racist. That’s because the proposal is too vague and I don’t trust politicians. Open to convincing otherwise but the PM is not the best big picture communicator so I don’t know how that’s going to occur.
Given the nature of the yes campaign, it is quite possible that there will be a significant “shy no” component in polling
You have a choice; stand with Dutton against the Uluru Statement. Or stand with our First Nations people for reconciliation. If you find that difficult, you should question why you’re standing with Dutton and his ilk.
OC: “shy no”
That same argument was used during the SSM debate. By the same people. For the same reason.
It’s not an argument but an observation
Speaking of SSM plebiscite, there were remarks last night that the no vote came from “liberal, bigoted Christians” It is worth remembering that the largest no votes were in inner West Sydney Labor seats which are not noted for their Christian demographic
I’m voting yes but the more we hear from Pi the more I want to vote no.
OC: “It is worth remembering that the largest no votes were in inner West Sydney Labor seats which are not noted for their Christian demographic”
Yes they are. That is exactly where they come from.
nath : “It’s your fault i want to stand and be counted with the racists.”
Cool story brah.
I basically haven’t seen a Yes campaign. As far as I can see the No campaign has had the field to itself since January barring the occasional statement from a politician.
I don’t know what the Yes campaign are even doing, but if the idea was to keep their resources back for the actual referendum campaign I think that needs to be abandoned before votes solidify too far against them. No are far more visible, far more pithy, and as usual for the right have the advantage of pushing straight up lies on fliers and social media.
Virtue signalling corporations declaring for Yes are not a campaign for Yes.
Pi says:
nath : “It’s your fault i want to stand and be counted with the racists.”
Cool story brah.
_____
I don’t think you care that much about the voice. This just an opportunity to define the LNP as racists as part of your Labor fanaticism. Stoogeness 101. All the best though.
BK thanks.
If that account is true regarding the driver’s behaviour on the charter for the Hunter Valley wedding then that is scary.
This if proven will send shockwaves through the charter bus industry… everything from ‘school to pool’ local work to weddings, cruise ship transfers and other more lucrative work will dry up overnight. Probably even school bus routes.
The company involved in this terrible tragedy will not survive.
Having dealings with the bus industry here in Victoria there are still many ‘fly by night’ dodgy operators looking to make a quick $ on rail replacement work due to level crossing removal projects and more.
I think a line has been drawn in the sand this weekend.
The industry needs a clean out just like what happened back in the 80s with the terrible crashes at Kempsey and so on.
Where’s my race based “Voice’? Why are only indigenous Australians entitled to one?
As Dutton said, ‘We are all equal but some of us are more equal than others.’
@Oakeshott: Yeah, Essential do a lot of issues polling and it often skews left. With marriage equality at the outset of the postal vote they had (checks) 63% yes with 12% undecided, the actual vote came in at 61.6% yes.