Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)

Major party starters in place for Fadden, a date set for Rockingham, and nine candidates emerge for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte.

News to report on the three by-elections presently in view – one federal and two state, two with dates confirmed and one to be announced:

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Fadden by-election on July 15 will be long-serving Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who won a final round vote of 153 preselectors over Dinesh Palipana, with Fran Ward, Owen Caterer and Craig Hobart falling by the wayside in earlier rounds. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports a meeting of Labor’s administrative committee last Friday unanimously endorsed Letitia Del Fabbro, a nurse educator who was also the candidate at the May 2022 election.

• Nine candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte, expected to be held in about a fortnight, controversial former Kew MP Tim Smith not being among them. As reported by Rachel Baxendale in The Australian, they are John Roskam, former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs; Sarah Overton, KPMG director; Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, who ran in Box Hill at the November state election; Jason McClintock, a tech business founder who ran in Eltham (and who donated heavily to the party’s state election campaign); David Farrelly, who ran in Pakenham; Jemma Townson, “energy industry communications director and former Matthew Guy and Katie Allen staffer”; Antonietta di Cosmo, 22-year-old “Ryan Smith staffer, champion rower and law student”; Allison Troth, “cancer campaigner and former John Howard staffer”; and Andrew Conlon, “Manningham councillor and maths teacher”. The report says factional conservatives are likely to back Roskam or Werner, while “an opposing factional grouping that coalesces around powerbrokers Frank Greenstein and Holly Byrne” might support Overton, McClintock or Townson.

• The Rockingham by-election to replace Mark McGowan has been set for July 29. The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate will likely be Magenta Marshall, who has won backing from the Right, despite last week saying she was “not sure it’s my time”. Marshall is in her late twenties and works in a “specialised campaigning role” in party headquarters, having previously been an electorate officer to Balcatta MP David Michael.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)”

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  1. Pisays:

    The ONLY reason why it was not compulsory was because the LNP thought it could depend upon the hidden homphobes voting in numbers. The religious whackos aka their base. If they had thought there was a better chance of defeating it by making it compulsory, they would have made it compulsory. Isn’t it funny all of a sudden how the conservatives don’t want to be reminded of the last time they relied upon bigotry to further a culture war?
    A bit deranged. The reason it wasn’t compulsory is because it didn’t affect the constitution. There were plenty of Liberals who wanted it to pass.

  2. I am still confident the Voice referendum will succeed. I do think it relevant to consider how the same sex marriage postal plebicite was promoted.

    I did some googling. It’s not easy to find definite polling data but doom and gloom articles were common. I was intrigued to see an article that said a poll in WA indicated the no vote was very strong. The actual result was the opposite.

    The yes campaign hasn’t even started yet. It won’t be a walkover but a majority of votes in a majority of states is achievable. Remember that the same sex vote happened under a LNP government where influential members advocated no. We now have unanamous support from an ALP goverrnment.

    For example, major sporting codes advocate yes. Who will the punters take more notice of, the IPA or AFL and NRL?

  3. Which is why I keep on coming back to the question to all of the hidden racists that want to vote no; Is it your assertion that Peter Dutton IS NOT appealing to a significant racist cohort in his opposition to the voice? Yes or no?

    Because if you say no, you’re a liar. And worse than that, you know that you’re a liar, because to not lie makes you racist, so you’re hoping that your lie protects you from your racism. And if you say yes, it means you’re overtly supporting a racist hate signalling to other racists.

    Y’all get to decide who you want to stand up and be counted with. The racists? Or our FN people? You can mutter as many weasel words as you like but that’s the only thing that’s being asked.

    Granny: “I am still confident the Voice referendum will succeed. ”

    Me too. Every sporting code that wants to have followers. Every business that wants to remain solvent. Every learning institution that wants to have students. These are are just going to keep building and building until the referendum. The people mouthing their mealy words today will be silent, just like the people who opposed same sex marriage have become.

  4. SSM survey got a 79.5% turnout. At a general election turnout tends to be about 93%.
    It would have require almost all non-voter (or survey returner I guess) who would have turned up if it was held in conjunction with an election to vote “No” to have changed the result. I would say the non-compulsory element of the survey was less of a factor than some would think.

  5. We’ve had lots of pretty crook state and local governments. They weren’t abolished, ultimately the voters took care of them.

  6. BSF: “I would say the non-compulsory element of the survey was less of a factor than some would think.”

    What matters is why they did that, not how wrong they were.

  7. Pisays:

    What matters is why they did that, not how wrong they were.
    They did it to avoid a vote in their party room and expose the divisions between moderates and conservatives.

    Labor wanted a plebiscite before the Liberals, before changing their minds.

  8. Although that should be pointed out; How wrong they were. The LNP wanted it to fail, so they initiated a non-compulsory plebiscite because they thought that it would lead to a failed outcome.

  9. Pi, I can’t follow the double negatives in your posts, I’m sorry. Its probably my fault.

    The business i work for starts every meeting by acknowledging indigenous culture and first nation peoples…..and its a seriously oppressive and disrespectful thing to have to listen to.

    Its a bit like being made to sit through a morning prayer meeting when you are an atheist.

    The compulsory acknowledgement of FN is helping to sew the seeds of the No vote, more than any faux racism you are imagining

  10. MrSquiggle: “its a seriously oppressive and disrespectful thing to have to listen to.”

    Tell me you’re racist without telling me you’re racist. See what I mean peoples? You don’t have to scratch the surface for long before it comes out.

    You were no as soon as you heard there was a question. No amount of information or appeasement would have changed your already established opinion. You’re primed for it. And all your dialogue today is just a smokescreen to hide the fact that you never had any intention of supporting indigenous reconciliation.

    I am glad that no one can accuse me of being even tangentially aligned with you.

    MrSquiggle: “Its a bit like being made to sit through a morning prayer meeting when you are an atheist.”

    I am an atheist. No. You’re more like a guy complaining that too many people are speaking in foreign languages. And let’s be honest with one another; this will have happened more than once, yes?

    MrSquiggle: “racism”

    Like I said, even those with rat cunning know that to be known as a racist is bad. You just fail to grasp the fact that it is the racism itself, not being called out for it, that is the problem. You should work on that.

    MrSquiggle: “sew”


  11. Mavis @ Monday, June 12, 2023 at 10:22 pm:

    “Enough Already:

    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 9:45 pm
    You really don’t get it do you? If I were you, I’d defer to a higher power. In my view you’re on the precipice. Pepsy.”

    Mavis, I was only trying to apologise.

  12. Didn’t come off that way if I wanna be honest EA. Kinda came off like you were blaming the person for taking it the “wrong” way, and that people needed to be more understanding of you.

    Apologies are easy. “Sorry about that. I’ll try to do better.”

    My 2.2c (GST incl.)

  13. Pi @ Monday, June 12, 2023 at 11:54 pm:
    “MrSquiggle: “its a seriously oppressive and disrespectful thing to have to listen to.””

    Pi, I was gobsmacked to see that comment by Mr Squiggle. Seriously? Speaking an Acknowledgment of Country is “seriously oppressive and disrespectful”?

    1) “oppressive”: what a privileged life someone must have led to think listening to someone speak for a couple of minutes counts as being “oppressed”.

    2) “disrespectful”: how narcissistically entitled someone must be to actually feel “disrespected” by being asked for a couple of minutes of their attention along with everyone else in the room.

  14. Pi @ Tuesday, June 13, 2023 at 12:05 am:

    “Didn’t come off that way if I wanna be honest EA. Kinda came off like you were blaming the person for taking it the “wrong” way, and that people needed to be more understanding of you.

    Apologies are easy. “Sorry about that. I’ll try to do better.”

    My 2.2c (GST incl.)”

    Pi, sorry, I see what you mean. I see Mavis was referencing my post to William at 9:45pm, but I was referencing my own post to Mavis at 9:58pm:

    “Enough Already says:
    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 9:58 pm
    Mavis, actually, I think I know what upset you. I apologise for, and fully retract, my ageist slur against Silvio Berlusconi. It was out of order.”

    That was what I meant just now to Mavis by “I was only trying to apologise.”

  15. Reminds me of the quote: “‘When you’re accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression’”

    Anyhowz sleepy time for me. Peace. Out.

  16. Mr Squiggle @ 10.07pm,
    ” would like to shift the dial on this to create a new principle that goes something like- one person, one vote, plus a little bit extra if you are”

    Just about every legislative change in Parliament shifts to create “a little bit extra if” and the politicians adjudicate on party lines mostly and it all becomes law.

    The first tenet of the LNP, as highlighted by the corrupt and dishonest Morrison government, is to only vote for anything if and when the LNP supporters are the recipients of “a little bit extra”.

    So if an amendment to the Voice were added, to include more money for private schools and to entrench the availability of franking credits than the LNP would give the Voice their full support.

    The Voice referendum would be “a shoe in” .

    The “we are not racists” element is only inserted as an argument to oppose the Voice because the Voice does not adhere the first tenet of the LNP supporters.

    It’s “the Australian way mate” and according to the LNP, it’s the only way.

    Thankfully the “crooks and spivs” were given “the flick” at the last election.

    The Voice, to the LNP, as opponents of the Voice, is like asking them to accept an enema “in the arse” of the constitution with no addition benefits for the LNP.

    The LNP mantra “we don’t give away our bullshit for nothing” is adhered to.

    The introduction of “we are not racist” has been used as a tool.

    The LNP chorus, (loudly and clearly)
    “we decide who gets the Voice in this country and the circumstances in which they get it”

    The chorus is given plenty of airplay by the wannabes in the media.

    Hopefully in voting for the Voice the voters will give the LNP the same treatment they received at the last election and the same treatment the LNP was given at the 2007 election.

    The referendum is really a vote to tell the “spivs and crooks” together with the “we are not racists” that they’re are not wanted anymore.
    It’s time to clean out the LNP’s rectum again.

  17. Enough Already:

    Monday, June 12, 2023 at 9:58 pm

    [‘That was what I meant just now to Mavis by “I was only trying to apologise.”]

    I take no offence whatsoever to references of my advanced years; in fact, I’m proud thereof. What turns me off though is your repetitive postings of you know what. Almost no one on this site is for the Russian Bear but they could end up that way with your continued meanderings. Moreover, please stop the apologies – they’re as sincere as a knotted condom.

  18. All hail the Alliance for Responsible Citizenship (sic), “fronted by Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson and backed by a pro-Brexit hedge fund billionaire and a Dubai-based investment group”:

    “We at ARC do not believe that humanity is necessarily and inevitably teetering on the brink of apocalyptic disaster.

    “We posit, instead, that men and women of faith and decisiveness, made in the image of God, can arrange their affairs with care and attention so that abundance and opportunity could be available for all.”

    Signing up from Australia:

    Tony Abbott
    John Howard
    John Anderson
    Amanda Stoker
    Andrew Hastie

    … plus “Howard-era chief scientist” Prof Robin Batterham.

    “Made in the image of God”, no less!


  19. Essential poll:

    “Labor maintained its advantage over the Coalition on social issues, including:

    • improving services such as health and welfare (Labor 43% to the Coalition 22%),

    • reversing the trend of insecure work (38% to 20%) and

    • climate change (34% to 18%).”

    “Labor also recorded wins over the Coalition on several economic indicators:

    • handling the rising cost of living (Labor 33% to the Coalition 27%),

    • handling rising interest rates (30% to 26%) and

    • reducing government debt (32% to 31%) [well, that one’s actually a statistical tie].”

    “Since February, the proportion of respondents who favoured the Coalition on interest rates has collapsed 16 points from 42% to 26%.”


  20. Oh, and there’s this, too:

    “Public support for the Indigenous voice to parliament is *holding steady and remains high*, the latest Guardian Essential poll shows, in contrast with other recent polls suggesting that support is sliding.

    “The poll of 1,123 voters, published on Tuesday, found 60% of respondents were in favour of the voice, up one point on the previous survey, while 40% were opposed to it.”

    “… Resolve and Newspoll recorded the biggest declines for the yes vote. But the Essential poll is more optimistic …”

    Discuss …


  21. He finally got Borexit done …

    “Boris Johnson has formally stepped down as an MP, parliamentary authorities have announced …”


    In a quaintly British way:

    “Rules dating back to 1624 state that MPs can only leave their seats as a result of death, expulsion or disqualification and *cannot voluntarily step down*. They have to instead accept a paid crown office, which automatically disqualifies them.”

    “The chancellor of the exchequer has this day appointed Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson to be steward and bailiff of the Three Hundreds of Chiltern,” a statement by the Treasury said.

  22. Watermelon RE: Green Housing.
    An objective and reasonable position from the Greens would be to accept a reasonable policy concerning public housing.
    The problem for the Greens is that it is a “populist” proposal which is potentially illegal.
    In 1974, The Whitlam Government, facing a rising global crisis with inflation, put forward a referendum question which would give the Commonwealth the power to exercise control of prices and incomes.
    This question was soundly defeated by the Australian electorate. Nearly, fifty years on a similar proposal may succeed.
    However, the current government, or any future government, is not going to enact legislation for which they don’t have the constitutional authority.
    It is for this reason that the Hawke / Keating administration negotiated a ‘Prices and Incomes Accord’ with the ACTU and business groups in 1983.
    Furthermore, if any Rent / Lease Freeze was ever enacted two things would occur;
    1. Landlords would significantly increase rents and leasehold contracts to compensate themselves for any lost revenue over the duration of the said freeze,
    2. The Opposition, business groups and all affected parties would seek an injunction from the High Court regarding the constitutional legality of such an Act.

    The Greens, in Parliament, have a well known record of destroying good public policy in their pursuit of their version of the perfect.

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