Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan on voting intention, housing and Indigenous Voice (open thread)

More stable results on federal voting intention, and the first Indigenous Voice poll in a while that doesn’t suggest falling support.

The fortnightly federal voting intention numbers from Essential Research, inclusive of an unchanged 5% undecided component, have Labor down a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 31%, the Greens up one to 15%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party on one to 2%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down one to 52%, the Coalition up one to 43% and undecided steady on 5%.

The poll also included questions on the housing system, which only 13% rated as good for renters along with 12% for future generations, respectively compared with 63% and 59% for bad. The system was deemed most favourable for existing home owners (43% good, 20% bad) and residential property investors (37% good, 27% for bad). The Housing Australia Future Fund, which respondents were told “aims to invest $10 billion and spend the earnings on building 30,000 affordable homes over the next five years”, was considered too much investment by 9%, too little by 30% and about right by 41%.

Questions on negative gearing found 36% support for its abolition with 25% opposed, widening to 49% and 17% for a limitation to one investment property. Majority support was recorded for all of five proposed reforms that did not involve tax, restrictions on foreign investment (69% supportive, 12% opposed), rental freezes (60% and 17%) and migration caps (60% and 15%) more so than allowing super to be accessed (56% and 20%). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1138.

Also out today was an SMS poll from Roy Morgan on the Indigenous Voice, which found 46% saying they would vote yes in a referendum, unchanged on mid-April, with opposition down three to 36%. Yes led in New South Wales (48% to 38%), Victoria (47% to 32%), Western Australia (41% to 35%) and South Australia (47% to 32%), but not Queensland (39% to 46%). The poll was conducted Friday to Monday from a sample of 1833.

The pollster’s weekly federal voting intention results, conducted separately online and by phone from Monday to Sunday, have Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55.5-44.5 from primary votes of Labor 36%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 11.5%. There was also an SMS poll of state voting intention in Victoria last week that had Labor leading 61.5-38.5, conducted from a sample of 2095 from May 17 to 22.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

761 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan on voting intention, housing and Indigenous Voice (open thread)”

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  1. Given the judgment – how can an award for “conspicuous Valor” be reconciled with murdering unarmed individuals?

  2. Stokes thinks he’s doing an essential social service by providing a defence for people like BRS and Lerhmann.

  3. do we think the shoppies will show some leadership and get rid of the sexist anti gay mp Gregg donnelly from the nsw upper house he has been holding a seat since 2005 is arguably to the right of even fred nile and is obsessed with attacking progresive ishues thankfully his anti trans campaigning is not as well known as deaming but hopefuly when he terms up in 2023 the sda will replace him maybi bernie smith or gerard dwyer do not want a political corear and they have oniel in senate

  4. Ven

    “ Cronus
    For the time being putting aside democracy and fourth estate, do you think that is SAS code of conduct as described by MHS.”
    ————————————

    Ven

    I’m not sure but unfortunately I suspect it reflects very limited change in culture. The SAS are an institution within an institution rendering change even more challenging. They need to return to a culture of reflecting the highest standards and traditions of Australia’s Defence Community and this means taking some very unpleasant medicine.

    The fact that many soldiers did not behave in a manner contradicting excepted norms gives hope that the unit and its reputation and skill set can be rehabilitated. We need this to be the case.

    They’re not helped by apologists, advocates and well-meaning but misinformed external supporters implying that the SAS is just misunderstood.

  5. It should be said that when it comes to the Victoria Cross, there’s a huge difference between losing the physical medal and losing the entitlement to wear it.

    After World War 1, a lot of Commonwealth veterans ended up being forced to sell their medals to private collectors, especially during the Great Depression, but that did not forfeit their receiving of them.

    If BRS loses his physical VC medal as collateral, that would not mean that it is forfeited from him. That would require an additional step that hasn’t been done since 1908. In the end it might be up to King Charles to make that decision, since the ultimate authority of the medal does seem to be the Monarch.

  6. WeWantPaul
    100% hard agreed, it is so far to the far right it can neither see nor remember what the centre looks like.

    Those on the Far Left and those on the Far Right share the same delusion: That they themselves occupy the centre.

    Every election in Australia proves them wrong.

  7. Ch 7 news (Stokes media) showed a statement from Stokes including (wtte) “that’s not the person I know”. Perhaps Stokes is contemplating an appeal, after all the legal fees seem to be small change for a person of his means.


  8. Pisays:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 6:14 pm
    Sohar: “Finland”

    Finland has two things that are noteworthy; a nuclear power infrastructure AND a long-term nuclear waste storage facility for the waste it generates. Cost em billions and took decades. They’re the only ones that have done that in the world. I mean seriously; Go them.

    Our renewables sector is going gangbusters. Finland has a population of greater Melbourne. Oz is 20x the size and 5x the population. These are not the same things. Finland is not a relevant parallel to oz.

    Relevant parallel to oz is Canada.

  9. Aaron newton @ #653 Thursday, June 1st, 2023 – 6:16 pm

    do we think the shoppies will show some leadership and get rid of the sexist anti gay mp Gregg donnelly from the nsw upper house he has been holding a seat since 2005 is arguably to the right of even fred nile and is obsessed with attacking progresive ishues thankfully his anti trans campaigning is not as well known as deaming but hopefuly when he terms up in 2023 the sda will replace him maybi bernie smith or gerard dwyer do not want a political corear and they have oniel in senate

    Aaron

    The ALP is a broad church. Most are welcome, it seems.

  10. but the two mpsmckenazi was closist to one was the shoppies anthony byrne who apart from being ado nothing mp for 20 years thanks to branch stqacking seemingly has no job despite mckenzie claiming he hadgood conections with security agentsies thanks to his role as deputy chair of the powerlis federal parliament inteligents comitty apart from reviewing terarist organizations and the budgets of asio the committy has no real power despite the retorick of mckenzi

  11. For those who define Labor as right wing, if they then define things as such then by definition they are clearly defining the population as being right wing.

    In any case, it’s best that the government reflect the values of the vast majority and not extremists and radicals.

  12. Federal Labor is a centre-left government.

    Do not believe anyone from the Far Left who tells you they are “centre right” or “far right”.

    Do not believe anyone from the Far Right who tells you they are “communist” or “socialist”.

  13. You just have to look at the people here who keep parroting the line that the federal Labor government are Right Wing. Says all you need to know about the veracity of their pov.

  14. Interesting citizen – I didnt read that statement as full throated support, more qualified – not the person I know… etc etc.

  15. unlike the us senate inteligents committy which can investigate aligations of war crimesor the cias actions the so called powerful comitty can notinvestegate any operation of asio or any matter with out aprovuil from the aterney general like byrne hastie has made little impact as shadow aterney general and the only time he made any real impact was his speech attqacking a chinease australian against the wishes of turnbull semingly to asist his friend dutton to be pm

  16. Ven,
    Defo laws do need reform. It oddly has nothing to do with the hapless Tasmanian ALP branch. But IDK really what string you’re pulling there.

    Anyway, I suggest you read some Michael West articles on the use of defo laws to silence journalism. It’s not often you get big cases like this BRS thing. Remember Joe Hockey going the press because his feelings got hurt about something something. He won. The people with money win agains the people that dont

    Defo laws in the country are used to punish people who try and bring attention to serious misconduct. See Friendly Jordies.

    And Re the stadium. It’s just a fucking wast of money and shows a lack of judgement on the Federal governments parts to spend that money during a cold winter of housing crisis.

    Anyway, Listen too todays 7AM podcast. It’s a good recap of the last year of Albo’s government. It make the point, that I hold. If you keep your powder dry for too long, you may find it’s gone when you want to use it. Albo may miss his moment.

  17. cant find any thing about byrne since he retired yet he aparently had strong links with security agintsies acording to mckenzi well maybi undermining his coleague sam dastyari but byrne was just a typical invizable back bencher

  18. this was a civil trial. the decision reached by the judge was on the balance of probabilities. Nothing has been “proven”. Roberts-smith will need to face a criminal trial. only then, if proven guilty, can action be taken about taking medals away.


  19. citizensays:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 6:20 pm
    Ch 7 news (Stokes media) showed a statement from Stokes including (wtte) “that’s not the person I know”. Perhaps Stokes is contemplating an appeal, after all the legal fees seem to be small change for a person of his means.

    citizen
    If this is the judgement of character of one of the media magnets, which controls media atleast in one state (WA) and No.1 free to air media Channel and the other dominant media(Murdoch) being cancer on Australian society (as KRudd enunciated), what hope Australia has of a honest and sincere government?

  20. apart from donnelly most of the shoppies mps are reasonably modderit sen deb oniel hasdon good work onbringing atention to wage feft and 711 as well as pwc as hasf fellow shoppie Daniel malino chair of the house economicks comity even don farell is doing good work repairing trade tentions with china

  21. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 6:22 pm
    You just have to look at the people here who keep parroting the line that the federal Labor government are Right Wing. Says all you need to know about the veracity of their pov.
    ——————-

    Their focus is on labels, not the national interest.


  22. Pisays:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 6:26 pm
    Ven: “Moral bullying”

    “Have you tried… like… not being racist?”

    “STOP BULLYING ME!”

    Why am I called racist when I am just reporting what Sky news said?(baffling emoji)

  23. the other barney says:
    “Roberts-smith will need to face a criminal trial. only then, if proven guilty, can action be taken about taking medals away”

    [citation needed]

  24. Cronus @ #677 Thursday, June 1st, 2023 – 6:28 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 6:22 pm
    You just have to look at the people here who keep parroting the line that the federal Labor government are Right Wing. Says all you need to know about the veracity of their pov.
    ——————-

    Their focus is on labels, not the national interest.

    Their focus is on owning the Labs. 😐

  25. Yabba, he was doing his job, as he was supposed to do, as distasteful as it was, following his client’s instructions.

    You may not like it, but there it is.

  26. Yabba

    And Mckenzie makes a point often overlooked by BRS and his supporters: It was fellow SAS members who dobbed him.
    This was not a story made up by journalists as some would have you believe.
    Soldiers went to court and told what they saw.
    I can’t help wondering how many more cases there are.
    Hopefully the follow ups to Brereton report can be brought to a conclusion fairly quickly.
    Justice delayed is justice denied.
    And as for the usual suspects telling us Albanese and Marles must act.
    LOL

  27. Ven: “Why am I called racist ”

    Nah. I was passing comment on the term “Moral bullying”.

    “YOU CAN’T MAKE ME ETHICAL!!”

  28. “And people like WWP, clem attlee et al of their ilk are Democratic Socialists, an equivalent ‘catch all’ phrase and the 21st century version of the Marxist/Maoist/Leninist/Trotskyist sub-faction of University grade Communists. I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and say they’re not Stalinists. ”

    Now I never expect an intelligent discussion here, but this is actually interesting because I honestly don’t know what I would call myself. Not having studied political science I don’t know what most of those terms actually mean, so I certainly don’t label myself with any of them.

    At uni I wasn’t political at all, although I liked Keating.

    I do know what I’m for. I quite like modern life and electricity, and the science says to stay below 1.5 degrees of warming (which itself is not great) we (and every other country on earth) needs to be net zero about *checks notes* ah yes today. So oddly enough having done science and the scientific consensus being rock solid I can’t stand the idiocy of what we are doing. We are literally killing our kids and grand kids and most of us are ‘cool great’.

    I quite like democracy, but I don’t see a lot of people power even in the so called democracies, whatever we have is something else, and it isn’t nearly as good as democracy.

    I don’t like inequality and the trickle down experiment (including Keating’s culpability in it) was conclusive, it is bad, very very bad. That was apparent at the GFC, if not earlier. But still both Labor and Liberal are devoted to trickle down framework. I don’t understand how Labor folk see the cruelty of trickle down safety nets, the unfairness of the inequality that is so central to trickle down and still remain unflinching disciples for it. Is it stupidity? Is it corruption? Is it just our electoral system is so broken, democracy is so subverted that any real reform is impossible? Is the only way the address inequality a guillotines and rivers of blood revolution?

    I also see that the competition policy, or anti-trust as the yanks call it has massively failed and screwed us all over a million times, there are a lot of the ills we face that could be addressed with a return to proper anti-monopoly action. But is Labor advocating that? Are they ok with us being ripped off in non-competitive markets when the fundamental cornerstone of capitalism is competition? I don’t get it. Is it capture? Is it corruption? What is it.

    I could go on, and on, but you’ve all stopped reading and already picked the sentence you are going to misrepresent and claim means I want to have children with Jeremy Corbin. I don’t know why that is the ‘way to argue’ here but it is deeply dumb and why we so rarely actually consider interesting and intelligent things. It is a place one comes to see and provoke dumb not thoughtfulness, and that is disappointing, but not once I have done something like I’ve tried above without regretting not just posting a one line provocation instead.

  29. WWP: “Now I never expect an intelligent discussion here”

    argumentum ad lapidem. lol.

    WWP: “Not having studied political science”

    The words mean a lot. No one needs to understand them all. No one can. But it helps separate the wheat from the chaff so to speak. It makes it much easier to understand what you’re on about if everyone has a common frame of reference. The life of a radical is one that thinks no one “gets it” except them.

    These words are the descriptions that are used when defining how people interact. I never studied political science either fwiw.

  30. AAF Upnorth wrote,”who would you back over there cobber? Rishi or BoJo? Asking for a friend.”

    Now THAT is a FOOLISH comment. OMG!

  31. Has this fellow not heard of before and after school care?

    Traditional 9am to 3pm school hours are a “relic of a sexist, bygone era”, which assumes women do not work, a new Liberal MP has told parliament, calling for extended school days to reflect modern working hours.

    Ryde MP Jordan Lane used his maiden speech on Thursday to call for the school day to extend to 6pm to “empower parents, especially mothers” to “not be forced to choose between their own career progression or raising children”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/school-hours-are-sexist-should-be-extended-to-6pm-to-help-working-women-mp-20230601-p5dd3m.html

  32. citizen @ #687 Thursday, June 1st, 2023 – 6:44 pm

    Has this fellow not heard of before and after school care?

    Traditional 9am to 3pm school hours are a “relic of a sexist, bygone era”, which assumes women do not work, a new Liberal MP has told parliament, calling for extended school days to reflect modern working hours.

    Ryde MP Jordan Lane used his maiden speech on Thursday to call for the school day to extend to 6pm to “empower parents, especially mothers” to “not be forced to choose between their own career progression or raising children”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/school-hours-are-sexist-should-be-extended-to-6pm-to-help-working-women-mp-20230601-p5dd3m.html

    Labor nearly beat this guy. 🙁

    If he keeps going like this, next time they will.

  33. Fulvio Sammut @ #681 Thursday, June 1st, 2023 – 6:32 pm

    Yabba, he was doing his job, as he was supposed to do, as distasteful as it was, following his client’s instructions.

    You may not like it, but there it is.

    Takes all types, doesn’t it? Fancy going through life living a lie, while getting your jollies and much moolah from foully abusing truthful decent people to their faces, when they have had the guts and decency to defy an obnoxious, murdering bully in order to tell their stories, and to help reform the SAS.

    Many of them would have had PTSD already, and Artie boy would have exacerbated that mightily in all such sufferers.

    Just doing his job. So that’s sweet then!

    Do you really think he actually believed his client? Ha! Artie’s quite smart, I understand.

  34. I don’t think it’s accurate or fair to describe the Albanese government as centre-right. Roughly centre to centre-left would be my (very) rough assessment based on their first year, with the obvious caveats that this can differ widely depending on the policy area, that the definitions of what is “left” or “right” are incredibly broad and subjective, and – importantly – that the government has only been in office for a year and hasn’t yet implemented it’s full agenda, let alone come up with its platform for a second term.

    What they definitely have been doing is slowly-but-surely implementing positive progressive change and winding back the Coalition’s bastardry, albeit not to the extent or the speed that I would personally prefer in many areas. But its early days right now, and their 2022 election platform and present economic conditions hasn’t exactly give them a huge amount of room to move – some of this is self-inflicted, some of it simply “events, dear boy.”

    UK Labour, on the other hand? Well, obviously they are in opposition and are unlikely to go to the polls for at least another year, so measuring such things is a bit different. The positions they have adopted – and abandoned – since Starmer has taken the Labour leadership certainly suggests they are angling towards being a broadly centrist or centre-right government if they win office next year.

  35. Please, on this World Childrens Day, consider marking it by reading this article from Ukrainska Pravda, in which the families of deceased children help to write letters from their deceased child about the day they died. The intro:

    “On 1 June, the world marks International Children’s Day. It’s a reminder that adults must protect children’s rights and do everything they can to ensure they grow up happy, have access to education, and are free from grief and war.

    All children deserve to grow up in a peaceful world, free of violence or fear because of non-stop bombardment. Ukrainian children have been cut off from this by Russian aggression. According to UNICEF-confirmed data alone, almost 1,500 children have been injured since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A third of them died.

    If they could speak now, what would they tell us about themselves and the day they died? These stories have been written with the help of the deceased children’s families…

    … This piece was prepared especially for Ukrainska Pravda by Memorial, a platform which tells the stories of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers killed by Russia. To report data on Ukraine’s losses, please fill out the forms: for dead military and civilian victims.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2023/06/1/7404747/

    These lost souls deserve witness. 🙁

  36. Aaron newton says:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 6:27 pm
    apart from donnelly most of the shoppies mps are reasonably modderit sen deb oniel hasdon good work onbringing atention to wage feft and 711 as well as pwc as hasf fellow shoppie Daniel malino chair of the house economicks comity even don farell is doing good work repairing trade tentions with china

    The Shoppies are stocking shelves on night shift!

    Nath and his ilk who criticise this Union on alleged social conservatism, fail to see the excellent work the representatives who rise through the ranks are doing for our nation.

  37. Would this account for behaviour within the SAS?

    Roid rage is a symptom of anabolic steroid use, which refers to outbursts of anger or violence. People who experience roid rage may engage in irresponsible behavior, making them potentially dangerous towards:9
    Friends
    Family
    Themselves
    Other people
    Uncontrollable rage and severely violent acts can also land someone in legal trouble. Steroid use without a prescription from a doctor is also illegal and unsafe. Most of the people who misuse steroids are male weightlifters in their 20s and 30s.2

  38. Roberts-smith will need to face a criminal trial. only then, if proven guilty, can action be taken about taking medals away.

    Why? Was there a proceeding that proved his meritorious deeds beyond a reasonable doubt before he was given the medals in the first place? Nope. So there doesn’t need to be one to take them away.

    That which is freely given can be freely taken back. You know, if it turns out later on that you’re probably a murderous war criminal.

  39. “WWP: “Now I never expect an intelligent discussion here”

    argumentum ad lapidem. lol.”

    Dude I’m not even looking that up, because it wasn’t an argument it was just my observation, my personal opinion, and your engagement with the substantive points I made (none) is a perfect summary of both your capability and a lovely illustration of my point. Thank you for confirmation.

    Ok so I did look it up.

    “Appeal to the stone, also known as argumentum ad lapidem, is a logical fallacy that dismisses an argument as untrue or absurd. The dismissal is made by stating or reiterating that the argument is absurd, without providing further argumentation.”

    See and I didn’t do that, I dismissed this venue as a place for intelligent discussion, I was not dismissing any argument as untrue or absurd.

    I could say what you post is generally both untrue and absurd and should be dismissed with less effort than a latin phrase, I could say that for illustration because that would be me doing argumentum ad lapidem, ie I wouldn’t be with reason and considered argument be refuting you, I’m refuting them all by saying they are absurd rather than arguing any point. If there is ever a place and time for rgumentum ad lapidem it is definitely here.

    Just saying if I was to use a latin phrase I’d look up its meaning first, you should probably work on that.

  40. shellbell:

    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 6:07 pm

    [‘Stokes now has been on the wrong side of the two biggest defamation cases in Oz. BRS and Marsden in 2001.’]

    Well noted.
    _______________________________________

    The three respondents in the RS’s trial are seeking indemnity costs.
    _______________________________________

    While having scant empathy for Roberts-Smith, I think middle-ranking officers, perhaps even more senior officers, have some explaining to do – and I’m not just singling out the current CDF.
    _______________________________________

    Even those with a cursory knowledge of the law would be inclined to reject the evidence of the witnesses for the applicant, predicated as it was on exculpation. Today’s decision was never really in doubt.

    ______________________________________

    As for the Victoria Cross, a precedent was set by George V though obviously we’re not bound by it; it does, though, serve as obita…

    _______________________________________

    All those who tried to accrete the “heroism” of Roberts-Smith should now settle. And while he may appeal, his chances of success are as remote as a snowflake in warmer weather.

  41. The Shoppies are stocking shelves on night shift!

    LMAO, as if the average SDA rep has ever set foot on a shop floor.

    Now the more-or-less powerless membership, sure, they will probably be working their butts off once the evening load eventually gets in, the truck most likely arriving at least an hour or two late and making everyone stay well into the wee hours of the morning.

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