Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan on voting intention, housing and Indigenous Voice (open thread)

More stable results on federal voting intention, and the first Indigenous Voice poll in a while that doesn’t suggest falling support.

The fortnightly federal voting intention numbers from Essential Research, inclusive of an unchanged 5% undecided component, have Labor down a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 31%, the Greens up one to 15%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party on one to 2%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down one to 52%, the Coalition up one to 43% and undecided steady on 5%.

The poll also included questions on the housing system, which only 13% rated as good for renters along with 12% for future generations, respectively compared with 63% and 59% for bad. The system was deemed most favourable for existing home owners (43% good, 20% bad) and residential property investors (37% good, 27% for bad). The Housing Australia Future Fund, which respondents were told “aims to invest $10 billion and spend the earnings on building 30,000 affordable homes over the next five years”, was considered too much investment by 9%, too little by 30% and about right by 41%.

Questions on negative gearing found 36% support for its abolition with 25% opposed, widening to 49% and 17% for a limitation to one investment property. Majority support was recorded for all of five proposed reforms that did not involve tax, restrictions on foreign investment (69% supportive, 12% opposed), rental freezes (60% and 17%) and migration caps (60% and 15%) more so than allowing super to be accessed (56% and 20%). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1138.

Also out today was an SMS poll from Roy Morgan on the Indigenous Voice, which found 46% saying they would vote yes in a referendum, unchanged on mid-April, with opposition down three to 36%. Yes led in New South Wales (48% to 38%), Victoria (47% to 32%), Western Australia (41% to 35%) and South Australia (47% to 32%), but not Queensland (39% to 46%). The poll was conducted Friday to Monday from a sample of 1833.

The pollster’s weekly federal voting intention results, conducted separately online and by phone from Monday to Sunday, have Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55.5-44.5 from primary votes of Labor 36%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 11.5%. There was also an SMS poll of state voting intention in Victoria last week that had Labor leading 61.5-38.5, conducted from a sample of 2095 from May 17 to 22.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

761 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan on voting intention, housing and Indigenous Voice (open thread)”

Comments Page 15 of 16
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  1. Kirsdarke @ #655 Thursday, June 1st, 2023 – 6:17 pm

    It should be said that when it comes to the Victoria Cross, there’s a huge difference between losing the physical medal and losing the entitlement to wear it.

    After World War 1, a lot of Commonwealth veterans ended up being forced to sell their medals to private collectors, especially during the Great Depression, but that did not forfeit their receiving of them.

    If BRS loses his physical VC medal as collateral, that would not mean that it is forfeited from him. That would require an additional step that hasn’t been done since 1908. In the end it might be up to King Charles to make that decision, since the ultimate authority of the medal does seem to be the Monarch.

    It will be interesting to see if he is physically separated from the Victoria Cross as I believe that he is still OS. I won’t be surprised if he disappears…

  2. “The Shoppies are stocking shelves on night shift!

    LMAO, as if the average SDA rep has ever set foot on a shop floor.

    Now the more-or-less powerless membership, sure, they will probably be working their butts off once the evening load eventually gets in, the truck most likely arriving at least an hour or two late and making everyone stay well into the wee hours of the morning.”

    I hadn’t thought about this before but if we need to look for a time / place where the Labor right decided absolutely f*cking over the rank and file in a vile and ruthless way is actually they way they want to do things, the SDA might be it.

  3. It’s a battlefield on PB this evening.

    The end point ……. oh yeah, the Cure.

    “Say goodbye on a night like this
    If it’s the last thing we ever do
    You never looked as lost as this
    Sometimes it doesn’t even look like you…” Full lyrics
    Source: LyricFind

  4. WWP: “These words”

    I kinda brought on the red herring, so mea culpa.

    What I’m saying is that background “progressive”, “socialist”, and “left”, have meaning in the context of political science. They are loaded in every sense of the word.

    You seem a clever guy. I say that genuinely. When someone gets called out as ‘this’ or ‘that’, they’re wanting to know what they’re being called out as. I believe that was the context of what you were commenting on…

    Anyhowz. Whatevs. On bus. Spiderbait.

    My cars a UFO.

  5. citizen says:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 6:44 pm
    Has this fellow not heard of before and after school care?
    —————————

    He’d have to pay for after-school-care whereas it would be free if this responsibility continued to belong to teachers in state schools. It the children were in Private Schools then they’re already paying and bugger the teachers.

  6. @Tom

    That would be a farce level of irony. A soldier who receives the highest level award for gallantry on the battlefield ending up running away from the justice of the country he served in because he did war crimes.

    If he did that, then he’d devalue his medal to a scrap of bronze worth nothing more than an old penny compared to the value of honour it was meant to represent.

  7. I have always been onto the right wing nature of this board, at one time describing it as ‘Sellout Central.” However, recent right wing pronouncements have me hanging my head in shame. Do you think Curtin, Chifley and Whitlam aspired to be ‘centrist governments? Labor began as a part of an Australian radical tradition. it was reformist and took on the elites. Centrists don’t ever do that. Is there even a political centre in any meaningful sense of the word? I think not. Scratch a ‘centrist’ and you will find a privileged neo liberal. Probably counting his $3000 dollar a day briefs. Yeah, Labor to their bootstraps. ha, ha, ha! And people wonder why Labor’s primary vote is trending down.

  8. Eurozone CPI (M/M) May P: 0.0% (exp 0.2%; prev 0.6%)
    – Eurozone Estimate (Y/Y) May: 6.1% (exp 6.3%; prev 7.0%)
    – Eurozone Core CPI (Y/Y) May P: 5.3% (exp 5.5%; prev 5.6%)

  9. Sceptic says:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 7:02 pm
    Would this account for behaviour within the SAS?

    Roid rage is a symptom of anabolic steroid use, which refers to outbursts of anger or violence. People who experience roid rage may engage in irresponsible behavior, making them potentially dangerous towards:9
    Friends
    Family
    Themselves
    Other people
    Uncontrollable rage and severely violent acts can also land someone in legal trouble. Steroid use without a prescription from a doctor is also illegal and unsafe. Most of the people who misuse steroids are male weightlifters in their 20s and 30s.2
    ————————————

    I can only speak about those I know first hand but this isn’t generally considered a significant problem, particularly given that their fitness regime is already considered to be at an extremely high level and appropriate for their necessary skills. Their body shapes and the tasks they undertake don’t lend themselves to weightlifter type bodies. SAS troopers are more often lean and mean due to lots of distance running and swimming.

  10. AE wrote, “‘Labor is centre right’”.

    Horse. Shit. Fuckery.”

    Maybe not, but you certainly are. Ha, ha.

  11. JJ Hall wrote, “they’re ‘social democrats’ don’t you know, WWP? A perfect catch-all label for a catch-all party. Kirchheimer would be proud!”

    Exactly. The term ‘social democrat’ was designed by those without the moral fortitude to advocate for socialism. (Read, weak as piss) and then was adopted by the neo liberal crowd, who loved it because it didn’t tie tie them down to any particular policy position.

  12. Asha @ #700 Thursday, June 1st, 2023 – 7:10 pm

    The Shoppies are stocking shelves on night shift!

    LMAO, as if the average SDA rep has ever set foot on a shop floor.

    Now the more-or-less powerless membership, sure, they will probably be working their butts off once the evening load eventually gets in, the truck most likely arriving at least an hour or two late and making everyone stay well into the wee hours of the morning.

    Peter Malinauskas has and he’s Premier of SA. And used to be an SDA rep. So your substantial point is? Other than stacking shelves in a supermarket is a shit job. Everyone knows that and it’s why it’s a high turnover job that uni students, and people who like working in a secure job, at night, do. Also, being dependent upon truck deliveries is a known variable function of the job. You can’t make trucks turn up on time, every time. Sometimes the truck driver has to wait for an order to be delivered by a supplier to the mega warehouse before he can take his load to the store. Is that the fault of SDA reps as well?

    Honestly, the SDA hate on this blog boggles the mind.

  13. Ven,
    “Relevant parallel to oz is Canada.”

    Pfffft. The canada that invented hydro-nuclear scheduling?

    Goll,
    That one is so good the smashing pumpkins covered it.

    But mine is Fascination street.

  14. People who consider neoliberalism normal, natural, and inevitable – in other words, people who are ignorant of basic economic history – see the Albanese Government as centre-left. People who do have a reasonable understanding of what is possible in economic policy see the Albanese Government as centrist or centre-right.

  15. Never forget that Ben Roberts-Smith wore the Crusaders’ Cross in Afghanistan. It was a symbol used by Europeans when they murdered 1 million people conquering Muslim countries. The ADF, rather than choosing another picture, photoshopped it away.

  16. The BRS case referred to on the ABC as a catastrophic miscalculation by the applicant. This seems a reasonable summation. There’s no coming back from this decision by the Federal Court for BRS.

  17. sprocket_ says:

    Nath and his ilk who criticise this Union on alleged social conservatism, fail to see the excellent work the representatives who rise through the ranks are doing for our nation.
    ________
    Oh it’s not just the social conservatism/Catholic patronage network that bothers me.

    It was the EBA’s they signed which engineered wage theft with the employers for decades. Now they have been exposed they pose as fighters against wage theft, otherwise the whole artifice will crumble.

    Peter Malinauskas made it from shelf stacker to Premier via the SDA. But he was Catholic. His Moslem, Protestant or Atheist co workers would never have got preferment, advancement and political positions.

  18. McKenzie called BRS an ostentatious psychopath. That seems pretty accurate.

    As for roids in the military- I have had 2 friends suffer domestic violence at the hands of military personnel. Both servicemen were on roids….it seemed widespread.

  19. malinusgas may have rison from the shop floor but don farell probaly helpedmost sda leaders have not done actual work most leaders seemedseem interested in woorkers rights

  20. An accurate summation based on Besanko, J’s findings today.

    [‘Today the Federal Court handed down its decision in the Ben Roberts-Smith defamation case against The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. It is a historic decision that vindicated our journalism and found we have proven that Australia’s most-decorated living soldier is a war criminal and murderer who breached the Geneva Convention.

    For 10 months our journalists Nick McKenzie and Chris Masters awaited a decision on their investigations which we first published back in 2018.

    Roberts-Smith, a former Special Air Service corporal, launched defamation proceedings against our mastheads in August of that year and we have vigorously defended our journalists and their reporting since.

    The case had been described as a critical test of public interest journalism for Australia and it was indeed a landmark day for journalism but, as Nick said outside court, it was a day of justice.

    Justice for the family of Ali Jan who was kicked off a cliff by Ben Roberts-Smith and shot. Justice for the Afghan villagers who testified about what Roberts-Smith did in their country, including pressuring a rookie soldier to execute an elderly, unarmed man and machine-gunning a man with a prosthetic leg that he took home as a trophy. And justice for the brave SAS soldiers who stood up and told the truth about Roberts-Smith – that he is a war criminal, a bully and a liar who disgraced his country.

    “Australia should be proud of those men in the SAS. They are the majority in the SAS and they stood up for what was right, and they’ve been vindicated,” Nick said.

    Although the court found that our successful contextual truth defence covered allegations of domestic abuse levelled at Roberts-Smith, those specific allegations themselves could not be proven in court to the requisite standard. We are disappointed by this and we acknowledge “Person 17” (who can’t be identified for legal reasons) for testifying amid difficult circumstances.

    Nick and Chris never wanted this story to be about them but our newsrooms are incredibly proud of their dogged determination to pursue the truth. They painstakingly and methodically pieced together these investigations for two years before publication, and the decision – after a trial lasting 110 days, involving 41 witnesses and estimated to be more than $25 million in legal costs – reinforces the importance of the exhaustive public interest journalism that The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald are committed to.

    Publishing a story of this magnitude and complexity is a difficult task for any news organisation. We could not do it without our subscribers. I want to take this opportunity to thank you for supporting us. Your subscription to The Sydney Morning Herald helps create rigorous and brave journalism that holds power to account.’] – SMH.

  21. You would think that in this day and age that a union that only employs Catholic organizers and officials, and only puts forward Catholics for Parliamentary positions would attract more comment and criticism than it does.

    I mean considering all the fuss about workers rights and such, equality of opportunity in employment etc.

  22. nath says:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 8:38 pm
    Bill Shorten is an Anglican.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    He was a Catholic and actually attended Xavier College.
    He had big aspirations whilst a teenager at Xavier claiming he aspired to be PM

  23. Albo on his 3 faiths…

    At a press conference once, I revealed that my Mum raised me in three great faiths: the Catholic Church, the Australian Labor Party, and the South Sydney Rabbitohs.

    They all played roles in my childhood, each one of them in separate ways. Each brought a different strength that I was able to call on as I was growing up. And in different ways, I needed them all
    ……..
    My enduring belief is that we need an economy that works for people, not the other way around. So I was struck by the words of Brisbane Archbishop Mark Coleridge, who wrote: “Of course the economy matters, but only if it puts the human being at its heart. The economy was made to serve us; we weren’t made to serve the economy.”

    The Archbishop wrote those words in a piece reflecting on Rerum Novarum, Pope Leo XIII’s encyclical on The Condition of the Working Classes. I would like to share a few lines from it. “The more that is done for the benefit of the working classes by the general laws of the country, the less need will there be to seek for special means to relieve them.”

    And another: “Equity therefore commands that public authority show proper concern for the worker so that from what he contributes to the common good he may receive what will enable him, housed, clothed, and secure, to live his life without hardship.”

    And one more: “Special consideration must be given to the weak and the poor. For the nation, as it were, of the rich, is guarded by its own defences and is in less need of governmental protection, whereas the suffering multitude, without the means to protect itself, relies especially on the protection of the State. Wherefore, since wage workers are numbered among the great mass of the needy, the State must include them under its special care and foresight.”

    Those words are from 1891. They haven’t aged a day.

    https://www.eternitynews.com.au/australia/albo-to-christians-we-are-on-the-same-side/

  24. sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 8:49 pm

    Albo on his 3 faiths…
    _____________
    I’m not against Catholics entering Parliament. I’m against some of them running a patronage network based on a union that ONLY selects Catholics for Parliament.

    Something that Albo wasn’t a part of I should add.

  25. sprocket_says:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 8:51 pm
    I thought Bill Shorten defected to the Anglicans as part of his 2nd marriage?

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Probably did, but I was friendly with the father of his Xavier best mate.

  26. In the ’50s, my old man instructed me to rely on Fairfax. I think he was to a certain degree right though he was a Tory to his bootstraps. I attempted to put him on the right path(?), but he counter-intuitively wasn’t one for turning, despising Labour, particularly Attlee, whom he thought was underserving of his July ’45 landslide victory. When I visit his grave, I emote that he (Clem) was elevated to the peerage. I’m sure that makes him rest in peace.

  27. Tomorrow’s SMH front page

    https://twitter.com/Colgo/status/1664230029931450371

    Journalist at centre of Ben Roberts-Smith’s landmark defamation case speaks to 7.30
    (10m video & transcript)
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-01/journalist-at-centre-of-ben-roberts-smith%E2%80%99s/102423792

    What are the legal implications for the media from the Ben Roberts-Smith defamation case?
    (7m video)
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-01/what-are-the-legal-implications-for-the-media-from/102423812

  28. Nath is an unrecognised full forward, capable of miraculous marks at crucial times in matches yet was so often made to play in the in a defensive pocket.

    A frustrated “clutch player” never given the adulation he rightly deserves.

    Nath attributes his lack of opportunity to Bill Shorten and the SDA.

    Nath’s favourite lyrics from The Cure
    “I’m running out of time
    I’m out of step and closing down
    And never sleep for wanting hours
    The empty hours of greed
    And uselessly always the need to feel again
    The real belief of something more than mockery
    If only I could fill my heart with love”

    “Closedown”

  29. frednk says:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 8:13 pm
    Dutton is trying import the republican bullshit into Australia.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRkFwL878dU

    ————————–
    Dutton is a fucking moron. It really is as simple as that.

    He has an Australian flag in his lounge room! God Bless Armorica.

    Those are the facts, they are undisputed.

    How can any sane Australian look at the worst of the US Maga movement and say; I want me some of that?

    Remember Dutton was outwitted by Scott Morrison!

  30. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 6:10 pm
    The sense of denial from Labor partisans that this is a right wing Govt is the first stage of grief.

    Anger will kick in soon…
    -=——————

    Rex, Labor is your friend, leave them alone!

    Want a LNP Government?

    Continue as normal!

  31. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 6:31 pm
    the other barney says:
    “Roberts-smith will need to face a criminal trial. only then, if proven guilty, can action be taken about taking medals away”

    [citation needed]
    ———————–
    This was a defamation proceeding – a civil case between Roberts- Smith and the 3 news outlets. Civil cases are brought between individuals or companies and other individuals or companies. Governments are not involved. For Roberts-Smith to be found guilty of war crimes he would have to be prosecuted in a criminal court where it is the government (via DPP) who prosecutes and where beyond reasonable doubt is the test of guilt. if found guilty he could serve time and/or have his medals stripped. the inquiry currently under way is likely to recommend prosecution which will be (as i understand it) a civilian trial not a court martial.
    If you don’t believe what i’m saying look up the difference between a civil and criminal case.

  32. yes but donelly if you go through his record i dont mean to mention him a lot but he is imo more extreme then even nnile especialy not just aposing abortion but using his profile to targit pro abortion acdivists and close down trans rights given he is now using disability as aexcuse for his moral rants if the shoppies dont get rid of this guy who clearlty is a hateful individual not to mention his regular sexist attacks on female mps if he will not do the desent thing and retire the shoppies need todump him in 2023 the factions dump one of labors hardist working mps in adam searle and in federaly kenearley and yet the shoppies keep this hateful mp who apart from deaming could be the most horible mp in politics

  33. some could say i focus on this talintlis factional hack donnelly to much but as chair of health comitty he allowed mark latham to attack his labor mp anna watson and did not intervine at leastthe shoppies can not justify despite not being a huge fan dumping kenearley yet despite most labor mps dislike of donelly the shoppies numbers keep him in parliament after 2023 afterserving since 2005 they get rid of a tallint like searle but keep this inbaresment whois a at least former sen john hog was a hard working senater

  34. how ever i dont agree that albanese is a right wing governmentraising the job seeker rate increasing child caire the bigest cut to pescription medasins do seem like a progresive government maybi rex wants a coalition government

  35. For God’s sake, Labor arn’t going to lose office just because some people posted unflattering remarks about them in the comment section of a psephology blog. Nor can a Coalition victory be warded off through happy thoughts and positive vibes.

  36. Nicholas @ #718 Thursday, June 1st, 2023 – 7:45 pm

    People who consider neoliberalism normal, natural, and inevitable – in other words, people who are ignorant of basic economic history – see the Albanese Government as centre-left. People who do have a reasonable understanding of what is possible in economic policy see the Albanese Government as centrist or centre-right.

    How’s your support for Tara Reade going, Nicholas?

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