Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan on voting intention, housing and Indigenous Voice (open thread)

More stable results on federal voting intention, and the first Indigenous Voice poll in a while that doesn’t suggest falling support.

The fortnightly federal voting intention numbers from Essential Research, inclusive of an unchanged 5% undecided component, have Labor down a point to 34%, the Coalition steady on 31%, the Greens up one to 15%, One Nation up one to 6% and the United Australia Party on one to 2%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down one to 52%, the Coalition up one to 43% and undecided steady on 5%.

The poll also included questions on the housing system, which only 13% rated as good for renters along with 12% for future generations, respectively compared with 63% and 59% for bad. The system was deemed most favourable for existing home owners (43% good, 20% bad) and residential property investors (37% good, 27% for bad). The Housing Australia Future Fund, which respondents were told “aims to invest $10 billion and spend the earnings on building 30,000 affordable homes over the next five years”, was considered too much investment by 9%, too little by 30% and about right by 41%.

Questions on negative gearing found 36% support for its abolition with 25% opposed, widening to 49% and 17% for a limitation to one investment property. Majority support was recorded for all of five proposed reforms that did not involve tax, restrictions on foreign investment (69% supportive, 12% opposed), rental freezes (60% and 17%) and migration caps (60% and 15%) more so than allowing super to be accessed (56% and 20%). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1138.

Also out today was an SMS poll from Roy Morgan on the Indigenous Voice, which found 46% saying they would vote yes in a referendum, unchanged on mid-April, with opposition down three to 36%. Yes led in New South Wales (48% to 38%), Victoria (47% to 32%), Western Australia (41% to 35%) and South Australia (47% to 32%), but not Queensland (39% to 46%). The poll was conducted Friday to Monday from a sample of 1833.

The pollster’s weekly federal voting intention results, conducted separately online and by phone from Monday to Sunday, have Labor’s two-party lead unchanged at 55.5-44.5 from primary votes of Labor 36%, Coalition 33.5% and Greens 11.5%. There was also an SMS poll of state voting intention in Victoria last week that had Labor leading 61.5-38.5, conducted from a sample of 2095 from May 17 to 22.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

761 comments on “Polls: Essential Research and Roy Morgan on voting intention, housing and Indigenous Voice (open thread)”

Comments Page 16 of 16
1 15 16
  1. Want a LNP Government?

    The faces may change, but the policies remain the same

    @Player One

    Player One your a Liberal. I’ve seen your posts and you consistently paint Labor in the worst light. You haven’t given credit for anything they have done. I have no problem with you posting on here. But don’t pretend your anything more then are a Labor basher and you fit right in with the comments section on any Newscorp website.

  2. Omar Rivero
    BREAKING: Trump is hit with devastating news as the U.S. Department of Defense’s top former lawyer demands that Trump be immediately indicted by the Justice Department for violating the Espionage Act over yesterday’s “bombshell” CNN report.

    But it gets even worse for Trump…

    The lawyer says that, “War plans are among the most highly classified documents,” which “makes this squarely an Espionage Act case” because it’s now “not simply an ‘obstruction’ case “ and “there is now every reason to expect former President Trump will be charged under 18 USC 793(e) of the Espionage Act” because “the law fits his reported conduct like a hand in glove.”

    The lawyer continues, declaring that, “The audio audio recording is a meeting with several people who don’t have security clearances. If Trump discussed content of document it is even worse – and raises its own criminal exposure.”

    Adding insult to injury for Trump, President Bush’s top White House ethics lawyer declared that the “blockbuster report” proves that Trump “lied about’ his intentions with the classified intel, which is a “clear felony” that must land Trump in prison.

  3. Oh god, Tara Reade. That’s an episode I am not keen to revisit. Easily one of the ugliest and most pathetic acts of desperation and some of the ugliest discourse I have ever seen. I know, in terms of US Presidential elections/primaries, that 2008 was ugly to a lot of people here and 2016 was no picnic either but 2020 was its own special brand of gross. Maybe the toxicity just felt amplified because we were stuck inside for a lot of it.

  4. I had kind of assumed Trump was just going to keep avoiding any real consequences for his actions as he has done his entire life, but he may actually be pretty fucked thanks to this latest example of his stable genius.

    Probably won’t stop him from winning the Republican nomination though.

  5. Regarding the Liberal MP talking about school hours, there is a point in there- you can say “what about before and after school care” but that costs significant money. It’s not as bad as childcare costs for pre-school kids. But it’s not free. It’s an impost on working families because obviously people in normal working hours in full time jobs can’t do school pickup at 3 or 3:30 and the dropoff is also a hassle if you don’t live near the school as the school won’t accept the kids in the gate early unless they’re in paid before school care.

    (this was all quite new to me when I found out about it; when I was a kid, after school care existed, but “before school care”? I had never heard of it. I suppose it’s the product of a more litigious age and government cuts leading to schools being unwilling to front the cost of someone vaguely on duty in the schoolyard while the kids run around for half an hour before school starts, which thus pushes the cost out onto parents. It would have been an extra cost to my parents all through school, who could never have been able to wait around until school started to start commuting from my school to their jobs!)

    All of that said, extending school hours is not the answer at all. It’s a weird solution to the problem.

    Governments funding state schools to be able to offer bare supervision to kids who arrive “early” (from say 8am) and perhaps subsidised after school care as well through to 5:30-ish would make a difference for families doing it tough similarly to the improvements in childcare subsidies at the pre-school level. And it would tip the balance for more parents, especially women, to be able to work full time hours rather than juggling part-time hours or flexitime. I remember a much-admired colleague about 10 years ago who was able to arrive a little late each day and leave early to do school pickup 3 times a week because she had no lunch break every day and stayed (hours) late the other 2 nights a week and had her Mum pickup the kids those nights – it was not exactly great that she had to do that.

Comments Page 16 of 16
1 15 16

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *