The Financial Review had a set of federal voting intention numbers on Friday from Freshwater Strategy, which were highly distinctive in having Labor leading by only 52-48, compared with 54-46 from the last such poll in December. The primary votes were Labor 34% (down three), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 12% (steady) and 17% for the rest. Anthony Albanese was on 42% approval (down six) and 37% disapproval (up seven), a substantially narrower net positive rating than recorded by other pollsters, while Peter Dutton had less anomalous numbers of 30% (up one) and 42% (up four). A preferred prime minister question had Albanese with an usually narrow lead of 51-33, in from 55-29. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1005.
Further findings from the poll:
• Support for the Indigenous Voice was down two since December to 48% while opposition was up ten to 39%, including a 20-point increase among Coalition voters and a seven point increase among Labor and Greens voters. This converted to 55-45 after exclusion of the undecided, in from 65-35.
• Only nine per cent felt the budget would put downward pressure on inflation and interest rates, compared with 52% who thought the opposite and 23% who said it would have no effect. Forty-eight per cent felt the country was heading in the wrong direction, up six, compared with 37% for right direction, down seven.
• Seventy per cent supported Peter Dutton’s call for sport gambling ads to be curtailed, with 13% opposed, and 59% supported his proposal to allow the unemployed to earn $150 a fortnight more without affecting their JobSeeker rate.
By-election latest:
• Amy Remeikis of The Guardian reports five candidates have emerged for Liberal National Party preselection in Fadden, with nominations having closed last Friday and a ballot of eligible local members to be conducted this Friday. The Gold Coast Bulletin identifies four of them: Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who is widely rated the front-runner; Dinesh Palipana, emergency doctor at Gold Coast University Hospital and the state’s first quadriplegic medical graduate; Fran Ward, founder of a charity supporting distressed farmers; and Owen Carterer, who would appear to have a low profile. “Long-term members” were backing Caldwell, but Palipana had support from “Young LNP party members linked to state MP Sam O’Connor”, though critics were arguing he would do better to run at the state election.
• The Age/Herald reported a spokesperson for Scott Morrison saying his departure from parliament was “not imminent”, and would certainly not be soon enough to allow for joint by-elections in Fadden and his seat of Cook. However, it could “possibly come at the end of the year”.
Other news from around the place:
• David Penberthy of The Australian reported last week that bitterly fought Liberal Senate preselection looms in South Australia, the flashpoint being the position of Senator Alex Antic. Together with like-minded Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick, Antic withdrew parliamentary support from the Morrison government in protest against mandatory vaccinations, and has lately courted far right sentiment by mocking Volodomyr Zelenskyy in parliament and following it up with a theatrically disingenuous apology. Antic was elected from third position on the ticket in 2019, behind Anne Ruston and David Fawcett. As religious conservatives make headway in a push to take control of a party that took a distinctly moderate turn under Steven Marshall’s one-term state government, there are said to be some hoping Antic might be pushed to the top of the ticket (though an unidentified and presumably conservative party figure is quoted denying it), and others hoping he might be dumped altogether.
• Sumeyya Ilanbey of The Age reports Victorian Liberal state president Greg Mirabella told state council yesterday that an external report into the Aston by-election found defeated candidate Roshena Campbell had “the highest recognition and positivity among Liberal names, even when compared with outgoing federal Liberal MP Alan Tudge”. This would not seem to sit will with a view that has taken hold in the party that Campbell’s lack of local connection to the seat explained the result, as reflected in Peter Dutton’s determination that a local should succeed Stuart Robert in Fadden.
• RedBridge Group has results from polling of Victorian voters on federal voting intention, which after exclusion of the undecided finds Labor on 41% (32.9% at the election), the Coalition on 34% (33.1%) and the Greens on 12% (13.7%). The pollster’s high-profile director of strategy and analytics, Kos Samaras, argues the Liberals’ dismal levels of support in the state among non-religous voters, Indian Australians and Buddhists in general puts it in an unwinnable position.
• In his column in the Age/Herald on Saturday, George Megalogenis wrote that “private polling for the Yes campaign is more encouraging” than this week’s Resolve Strategic result of 53-47 (although Kos Samaras of RedBridge argues social desirability bias effects in polling on such questions means proponents should not feel comfortable of even a national majority unless polling has it clear of 55-45). However, Megalogenis says “Queensland is now assumed as lost, with Western Australia doubtful”, with “Tasmania as the potential swing state”.
• The West Australian provides a sketchy report of polling by Painted Dog Research gauging the opinions of 1409 voters in Western Australia on Anthony Albanese, Peter Dutton and Jim Chalmers. Albanese recorded an approval rating of “just under half”, with 26% dissatisfied, with Peter Dutton apparently scoring a parlous 16% approval and 48% disapproval. “About a third” approved of Jim Chalmers’ performance as Treasurer, while “just under a quarter disapproved”.
• The Age/Herald yesterday reported results on issue salience from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll, finding the cost of living with a huge lead as the highest priority issue, identified as such by 48% compared with 11% for health care, 10% for the environment and climate change and 8% for management of the economy. Cost of living has ascended to its present level from 16% last January and 25% at the time of the federal election in May.
“Although Wiki says Big 8, it was big 5 according to my partner who worked in one of them.”
Early 90’s some of the consolidation had already happened and we had:PwC, EY, KPMG, AA DTT.
PwC was the biggest in most markets in Australia but EY was competative in Perth.
Then Enron took down AA, and in Australia AA merged into EY. I went to the breakfast still have the ‘Fusion day’ t-shirt.
Five turned to 4.
Driven out of the UK I understood EY were in a slow global process to separate tax from audit. I don’t where that process is at but it will make some new jobs in audit for tax specialists.
PwC having a toxic tax practice may well want to consider the same divorce in Australia, but with neither side wanting the PwC brand in Australia.
Ben Collins
@oneunderscore__
Ron DeSantis’ campaign announcement has devolved into a bunch of people just thanking Elon Musk and complaining about Twitter.
8:49 AM · May 25, 2023
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303.4K
Views
https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1661504722753183747?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1661505162505236480%7Ctwgr%5E87439253892018b0e74da2693cc8cedef1ea2292%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailykos.com%2Fstories%2F2023%2F5%2F24%2F2171210%2F-DeSantis-big-launch-on-Twitter-takes-off-like-a-Musk-rocket
At least one of those things never happened. ICBM’s aren’t things that you just “get out”. Not by any method other than launching them, anyways.
Ah update EY abandoned the project to split tax and audit because money for partners is much more important than running an audit division with a semi-credible claim to independence (I personally think the whole audit model is based on a fiction that makes the endeavour fundamentally flawed) but anywhoo.
“an abstract institution like the Crown “
Complete piffle. Tell that to the Whitlam Government.
My goodness there are some stupid comments on this site, but this just about takes the cake.
Another part of the world cops it …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-25/asia-heatwave-climatologists-warning-rising-global-temperatures/102388434
How many more warnings is it going to take?
I wonder if just maybe there could be a connection here …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-24/elders-provide-walgett-drinking-water-government-solution-fails/102381706
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-15/independent-review-menindee-mass-fish-kill-nsw-chief-scientist/102348770
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-25/cotton-harvest-set-largest-crop-on-record-4-billion-dollars/102382686
Nah! how could there possibly be?
“How many more warnings is it going to take?”
Seems like we will be waiting until plus 6 or 7 degrees of warming when the billionaires start to notice, everyone else is just sitting tight hoping they don’t get killed, razed by fire or destroyed by flood. Tough luck Lismore!!! We are, like the colonial past, happy to see billions of poor people killed just so long as they can’t arrive here by boat (private jets are welcome). It is disgusting.
ar – Correct. The nuclear weapon facility near the Belgorod operation was not a missile facility. It was a storage facility of tactical nuclear weapons (smaller stuff like short range missile warheads and aircraft bombs). It was positioned there before the breakup of the USSR and probably hasn’t contained weapons for a long time.
I highly doubt that the Russians would have kept those things there whilst being in a war (or a special military operation) with the country 15 kms away. They probably haven’t kept anything significant there since the breakup of the USSR even when they were on good terms with Ukraine because of the risk of a border incursion. The Russians have shown themselves to be incompetent and stupid at times in past few years, but they are not moronic.
B.S. Fairman,
HMMMMMMM. Bold assumption of the Russian military prowess.
Would be amusing seeing hundreds of Russians carrying away an ICBM over their heads. Like something out of Gullivers Travels.
Dr Sophie Scamps MP
@SophieScamps
·
9s
It’s 1 thing for the Chair of the Climate Change Authority to be a former fossil fuel Director, but to be Chair of the CCA & Chair of Australia’s largest FOR-profit environmental markets investor, at the same time, is an inexplicable conflict of interest.
Ven
A friend of mine joined one of the then Big Eight accounting firms out of uni in 1985 (Touche Ross). There were a Big Five by the late nineties. After Andersons were busted in the early 2000s, there was a Big Four.
By the time of the Enron collapse and Andersons Consulting exposure, there already had been major scandals reaching into the hundreds of millions in damages for all of the big five. In fact Andersons had neither the largest claim (EY) nor the most numerous (PWC). Of course Enron stepped the scale up into the billions for the first, though not last time.
The scale of the PWC scandal (potentially billions in lost taxes over a decade, on top of still paying PWC more in the mean time), means action must be taken. Labor did not cause this mess, but it will have to fix it. Great way to recover some budget revenue 🙂
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-25/pwc-ordered-to-stand-down-staff-over-tax-leak/102392134
Labor shouldn’t be afraid to impose penalties that might end a firm’s Australian operations. It is foreign owned for starters. The better staff will never have a better job market to seek employment elsewhere.
The AFP may not be ideally skilled or of suitable character to investigate this matter:
“Facing questioning at Senate estimates, the AFP also committed to examine whether it was appropriate for PwC to be conducting an internal audit for police while the firm was simultaneously being investigated over the leak.
The AFP said it was reviewing its arrangements, and Commissioner Reece Kershaw said he would also “be sitting down and having a deeper discussion” over whether there was a conflict of interest in relation to communications with former NSW Police chief Mick Fuller, who last year joined PwC as a partner.”
Checking for conflicts of interest was a standard requirement for public servants assessing tenders when I was a Federal PS 20 years ago. Have they given it up? Is there any staff training?
c@t: “Probably. They just about always let the perfect be the enemy of the good.”
That’s because the greens aren’t interested in perfect nor good. They’re interested in obstruction and blaming others for their obstruction.
Now would be the perfect time to pass a law that makes it unlawful for an audit firm to offer any non-audit services in Australia.
And outsourcing an internal audit is like not having an internal audit, it was always a really stupid idea.
Ven: “big launch on Twitter takes off like a Musk rocket”
Musk rockets are amazingly successful. They haven’t had a single mission failure on a reused booster, which is something no other competitor has ever even been able to achieve once. They haven’t had a mission failure on any launch since 2016.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/02/spacexs-falcon-9-rocket-has-set-a-record-for-most-consecutive-successes/
That article was written over a year ago, and in the intervening time the number of rockets launched has accelerated. I wish he’d stick to what he’s good at. But trying to insinuate that the rockets aren’t good, when they’re obectively the best in the world, is a reflection on the person who makes such a claim.
WeWantPaul
True. The “Chinese Walls” in these firms never worked, as the PWC tax case proves.
There also has to be questions about governments using services from consulting firms instead of relying on the public sector.
Whilst I was a public servant, I saw my own research ignored by government ministers and senior officials until it was badged by one of the big four (with no changes other than a logo).
Pi @ #1014 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 2:12 pm
SpaceX rockets, you mean. Elon being distracted with Twitter is a blessing for all the other ventures he ostensibly controls. It lets the actually competent people be competent with less distraction and nonsense.
The rockets are fine, that’s true. It’s also true that a recent SpaceX launch failed spectacularly (and predictably, given the number of rocket engines deployed concurrently and the statistical failure rate of modern rocket engines), despite attempts to spin several engine failures, self-destruction, and extensive damage to the launch facility as a success.
The claim works fine as a burn on DeSantis/Twitter.
From the Guardian live:
“Canberra Times reports commonwealth car fleet will transition to electric
The Canberra Times is reporting a decision has been made on the Comcars (the commonwealth car fleet) – with BMW electric vehicles to take over from the mishmash of petrol cars, mid-year”
EVs great, but why BMW? One of the small volume, less competitive EV manufacturers selling in Australia. For the same money ($80K+) Comcar could be buying an EV6 or Ioniq if they don’t want to have something Chinese made.
“Now would be the perfect time to pass a law that makes it unlawful for an audit firm to offer any non-audit services in Australia.”
Great suggestion!
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/05/22/miscellany-freshwater-strategy-polling-by-election-latest-and-more-open-thread/comment-page-21/#comment-4114718
+1
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/05/22/miscellany-freshwater-strategy-polling-by-election-latest-and-more-open-thread/comment-page-20/#comment-4114695
For years there have been noises about doing soup to nuts under the one shingle, Chinese Walls, conflicts etc, be it advise, advise & execute, execute, especially legal, tax, accounting, advisory, consulting …
Let’s say if legislature get regulators on this beyond going after specific partners/ firms.
I note McKinsey now does implementation.
There’s Bain.
BCG.
Kearney/ ATK/ EDS.
Accidenture (Andersen Consulting)/ Arthur Andersen
EY/ CapGemini
Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
KPMG
PwC (PW and C&L), taking partners out of PwC makes it … (see the cartoon earlier in a recent Dawn Patrol)
BDO
…
a r says:
SpaceX rockets, you mean. Elon being distracted with Twitter is a blessing for all the other ventures he ostensibly controls. It lets the actually competent people be competent with less distraction and nonsense.
_____________
Yes. It’s important to remember that Elon just stumbled onto owning 2 revolutionary technology companies and none of their success is attributable to him.
Senator Lidia Thorpe
@SenatorThorpe
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13m
Yesterday I brought to light that the Labor Government is inflating the amount spent on First Nations communities. $14.2 million allocated to the National Indigenous Australians Agency is going to the NT Police for “high visibility police and law enforcement operations.”
This is the story that should be in the headlines. They say they are funding our organisations when the money is going to the same police that killed Kumanjay Walker.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-14/zachary-rolfe-racist-texts-kumanjayi-walker-coronial-inquest/101437236
“True. The “Chinese Walls” in these firms never worked, as the PWC tax case proves.”
And even if the did work at grunt levels (they didn’t) the chance of two partners sitting in a partnership meeting not sharing info that might make them $2 or more is zero.
I remember at doing a criminology course in undergrad and one of the presentations was that as a potential lawyer your biggest stream of future income is insider trading and the stats say you’ll get away with it, whether or not it was true in legal circles, it was rampant in the big 4.
Ven: “big launch on Twitter takes off like a Musk rocket”
pi: “Musk rockets are amazingly successful.”
ar: “SpaceX rockets, you mean.”
I was using the quoted terminology of someone else FFS.
ar: ” It’s also true that a recent SpaceX launch failed spectacularly”
It was a test rocket and was tested in exactly the same way that ALL SpaceX rockets have been tested, with the end product of having the most successful rocket, and only reusable rocket, ever built. The test was successful because the next iteration of rocket will have the issues raised during the test addressed. Which you would know if you knew anything about this subject beyond blind hatred of Musk.
ar: “The claim works fine as a burn on DeSantis/Twitter.”
It was an objectively stupid claim made by people that don’t like Musk so much that they say stupid things.
Still catching up on my reading, but this one is interesting …
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-can-still-meet-climate-targets-if-it-spends-billions-more-20230523-p5dalh.html
So … it seems we could do something about climate change. But how much will it cost to do so? Instead of just talking about doing something but actually hoping the rest of the world will do the hard yards while we continue to open new coal mines and gas fields?
$68 billion per year. If we are not spending something in that vicinity (and we are not), then it doesn’t matter what we may say, we are not really taking the problem seriously.
I think our reputation as a “climate laggard” is pretty secure, don’t you?
For those arguing against intervening in the housing market criis, economist Cameron Murray neatly skewers their logic:
“Cameron Murray@DrCameronMurray·6h
If you think stamp duties are inefficient because they stop people moving/downsizing, then you must also think that the rental market without caps on rent increases is also inefficient because it repeatedly forces renters to move unnecessarily.”
C@T 8:54am
“ I said to my son yesterday, whatever happened to bean bag guns? At worst the little old lady would have ended up with a bad bruise in order to knock the knife out of her hands.”
——————————-
Agreed C@T, so many alternative options.
How about ensuring all residents were in their rooms or out of harm’s way then let the aged patient wear herself out whilst calling paramedics or doctors? Or lead her into a room and lock her in temporarily while calling for medical assistance?
Socrates says:
Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 3:02 pm
For those arguing against intervening in the housing market criis, economist Cameron Murray neatly skewers their logic:
______
Not really. Pretty stupid comparison.
“Yes. It’s important to remember that Elon just stumbled onto owning 2 revolutionary technology companies and none of their success is attributable to him.”
He is an excellent sales person (how he fools people I don’t know but he does) he is a ruthless exploiter of workers, and he is a massive recipient of govt subsidies.
I’m not seeing the genius, and we see almost daily the idiotic and self-centred insanity.
So forgive me for not worshipping his far right wing authoritarian bullshit artist.
I suggest a baton on the little old lady to knock the knife out of her arm but that might have looked like bashing then. Better off shocking the shit out of her.
Or here is another idea. Actually try wrestling out of her hand. Sure you might have ended up with a cut or two but it is not likely that a 95 year old is going to be able to stab you to death. Plus Workers comp! Free holiday on stress leave!
WWP: “I’m not seeing”
Blind hatred will do that.
WWP: “worshipping ”
You’re the one making shit up to justify your beliefs dawg.
WWP: “far right wing authoritarian bullshit artist.”
Whether that is true or not is irrelevant. The issue is that you are incapable of separating your blind hatred of someone from objective reasoning.
Having just read Meher Baba’s contribution to the debate on the Voice, can I just say MB is obviously not lawyer and most certainly not an expert on Australian Constitution. MB knows very little about the treatment of advice to the Executive or the Parliament. Advice is what it is; no more, no less. It can be ignored, it can be followed. The Voice is no different to any other influential Lobby group except that it is constitutionally recognised (to prevent it being legislated out of existence) and funded by the Commonwealth (being the voice of the most disadvantaged people in the country).
Socrates
Don’t knock BMW EVs – great reviews and great to drive ( but agree why luxury vehicles for the public service)
KAGE,
Exactly.
Advice does not = Compulsion to do.
KAGE: “voice”
The only purpose of conservatives with regard to the voice is to propogate misinformation in order to spread confusion. This program started long before they even knew the wording of the referendum. There is no possible wording that would not have had these narratives created, because the entire point of these narratives is to attack the ALP. They have zero consideration for either indigenous people specifically or the Australian people as a whole. It is entirely transactional.
Has anyone seen a recording of Bandt saying he supports the voice yet? I’m pretty sure I haven’t seen him say these words.
Cronus @ #784 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 3:08 pm
Actually, come to think about it, my son worked in an Aged Care facility for a while and the Dementia patients were locked in their rooms at night to prevent them wandering. The On Duty staff had keys so they could check on them ever hour or two.
Anyway, there will no doubt be a Coronial Inquiry now and hopefully some sensible recommendations will come from it which the government and the Police Force will adopt.
Hmm, how about having bean bag guns on hand in the paddy wagon for a start?
“WWP: “I’m not seeing”
Blind hatred will do that.
WWP: “worshipping ”
You’re the one making shit up to justify your beliefs dawg.
WWP: “far right wing authoritarian bullshit artist.”
Whether that is true or not is irrelevant. The issue is that you are incapable of separating your blind hatred of someone with objective reasoning.”
Hilarious, it is definitely those like you deep in the cult that see things objectively and those of us outside whose evil prevented them seeing the glorious devine truth.
Said every follower of every false prophet ever.
Cara Swisher seems pretty objective, I just disagree with her on spacex and tesla. It isn’t an obsessive thing, it isn’t a new thing it is just my opinion.
I have a similar opinion of Bill Gates ‘genius’ with MS dos.
And for the record electric cars weren’t imvented by Musk or his engineers, given his failure at paypal he does gets points for joining tesla and selling the hell out of it, even if you don’t subtract points for his delusional view he could actually run a company given the PayPal experience.
Classic falling upwards.
Socrates @ #775 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 2:33 pm
How about,
* It’s not Chinese, who are trying to dominate the market
* It’s not Tesla, which is owned by a RW Authoritarian whack job
* It’s appropriate for our government leaders ?
Just for starters.
WWP: “the cult ”
The cult is people who make shit up in order to justify their already rigidly held beliefs. Take a bow.
WWP: “electric cars weren’t imvented by Musk or his engineers”
Just ones that were profitable to build. And no, that didn’t happen before Tesla.
WWP: “his failure at paypal”
Didn’t they sell it for $1.5B to eBay? Wow. I wish I could fail so hard.
WWP: “Classic falling upwards.”
Best electric car company in the world. Best big-battery company in the world. Best space-rocket company in the world. Personally I think he should stick to what he’s good at because I don’t think he knows anything about social media. But in your cult, everything that’s real doesn’t exist because reasons.
a r @ #758 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 1:07 pm
Just messing with their heads. So the Ruzzians had to come up with an excuse to explain it away. A laughable one, as it turns out.
“WWP: “his failure at paypal”
Didn’t he sell it for $1.5B?”
Falling up, it involves failure and unearned reward.
“The cult is people who make things up in order to justify their beliefs.”
Nah, a cult has someone like Musk do the making up for them.
People who form opinions can always be wrong, although I’d argue the hilarious twitter caper has validated every Musk opinion and criticism and revealed stuff even I wouldn’t have thought possible when I railed against the cult of musk pretwitter.
Imagine still being in the cult after your false prophet is revealed the way musk has been. Inconceivable.
GoldenSmaug @ #745 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 12:15 pm
Look, the way the wheels have been falling off a lot of the Ruzzian kit, almost literally, as one observer noted yesterday, the Kremlin couldn’t even guarantee that when Putin pushed the big red button that it would actually work at the other end. :}
“Ron’s Desaster”:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdiGGgmNaaM
“Best electric car company in the world. Best big-battery company in the world. Best space-rocket company in the world. ”
Seems to be subjective cultist conclusions, got anything to back them up, besides koolaid?
WWP: “a cult”
You’re the one that is trying to insinuate that the CEO of the best electric car company in the world (objectively. Most product sold and highest profit margins), best big-battery company in the world (objectively. Most product sold and highest profit margins), and best space-rocket company in the world (objectively. Most product sold and highest profit margins), doesn’t have anything to do with the success of those companies. That’s just plain dumb. But that’s the problem with cultists; They’re dumb.
You have a credibility gap there flash. The onus is upon YOU to prove that being the CEO of Telsa and SpaceX has no reflection on his ability to run those companies. I suppose you think the money held in those companies isn’t real either?
“You have a credibility gap there flash. The onus is upon YOU to prove that being the CEO of Telsa and SpaceX has no reflection on his ability to run those companies.”
I love it when evangelists come to the door, and with you I don’t have to offer you coffee and there is no chance you’ll ask to pray with me after we agree to disagree. Perfect.
The other thing I should have said about the Russian nuclear site, I would how much of their nuclear force has been looted and white anted by the corrupt Russian state.
Pi @ #1024 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 2:57 pm
Yes, yes. Everyone who thinks Elon overstates his personal mastery of technical engineering and execution, that his ventures succeed as much in spite of him as because of him, or that he’s generally an ass because of the things he says, does, and doesn’t do can only be doing blind hatred. 🙄
He sits at the top of successful companies. Good for him. That doesn’t make him a good person. It doesn’t mean he’s personally competent at doing the things those companies do. Doesn’t mean every person critical of him is some sort of lynch mob. We just understand the difference between leadership and execution.