Miscellany: Freshwater Strategy polling, by-election latest and more (open thread)

An unorthodox set of voting intention numbers from Freshwater Strategy, more signs of a narrowing on the Indigenous Voice, and the closure of nominations for the Liberal National Party preselection in Fadden.

The Financial Review had a set of federal voting intention numbers on Friday from Freshwater Strategy, which were highly distinctive in having Labor leading by only 52-48, compared with 54-46 from the last such poll in December. The primary votes were Labor 34% (down three), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 12% (steady) and 17% for the rest. Anthony Albanese was on 42% approval (down six) and 37% disapproval (up seven), a substantially narrower net positive rating than recorded by other pollsters, while Peter Dutton had less anomalous numbers of 30% (up one) and 42% (up four). A preferred prime minister question had Albanese with an usually narrow lead of 51-33, in from 55-29. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1005.

Further findings from the poll:

• Support for the Indigenous Voice was down two since December to 48% while opposition was up ten to 39%, including a 20-point increase among Coalition voters and a seven point increase among Labor and Greens voters. This converted to 55-45 after exclusion of the undecided, in from 65-35.

• Only nine per cent felt the budget would put downward pressure on inflation and interest rates, compared with 52% who thought the opposite and 23% who said it would have no effect. Forty-eight per cent felt the country was heading in the wrong direction, up six, compared with 37% for right direction, down seven.

• Seventy per cent supported Peter Dutton’s call for sport gambling ads to be curtailed, with 13% opposed, and 59% supported his proposal to allow the unemployed to earn $150 a fortnight more without affecting their JobSeeker rate.

By-election latest:

• Amy Remeikis of The Guardian reports five candidates have emerged for Liberal National Party preselection in Fadden, with nominations having closed last Friday and a ballot of eligible local members to be conducted this Friday. The Gold Coast Bulletin identifies four of them: Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who is widely rated the front-runner; Dinesh Palipana, emergency doctor at Gold Coast University Hospital and the state’s first quadriplegic medical graduate; Fran Ward, founder of a charity supporting distressed farmers; and Owen Carterer, who would appear to have a low profile. “Long-term members” were backing Caldwell, but Palipana had support from “Young LNP party members linked to state MP Sam O’Connor”, though critics were arguing he would do better to run at the state election.

• The Age/Herald reported a spokesperson for Scott Morrison saying his departure from parliament was “not imminent”, and would certainly not be soon enough to allow for joint by-elections in Fadden and his seat of Cook. However, it could “possibly come at the end of the year”.

Other news from around the place:

• David Penberthy of The Australian reported last week that bitterly fought Liberal Senate preselection looms in South Australia, the flashpoint being the position of Senator Alex Antic. Together with like-minded Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick, Antic withdrew parliamentary support from the Morrison government in protest against mandatory vaccinations, and has lately courted far right sentiment by mocking Volodomyr Zelenskyy in parliament and following it up with a theatrically disingenuous apology. Antic was elected from third position on the ticket in 2019, behind Anne Ruston and David Fawcett. As religious conservatives make headway in a push to take control of a party that took a distinctly moderate turn under Steven Marshall’s one-term state government, there are said to be some hoping Antic might be pushed to the top of the ticket (though an unidentified and presumably conservative party figure is quoted denying it), and others hoping he might be dumped altogether.

• Sumeyya Ilanbey of The Age reports Victorian Liberal state president Greg Mirabella told state council yesterday that an external report into the Aston by-election found defeated candidate Roshena Campbell had “the highest recognition and positivity among Liberal names, even when compared with outgoing federal Liberal MP Alan Tudge”. This would not seem to sit will with a view that has taken hold in the party that Campbell’s lack of local connection to the seat explained the result, as reflected in Peter Dutton’s determination that a local should succeed Stuart Robert in Fadden.

• RedBridge Group has results from polling of Victorian voters on federal voting intention, which after exclusion of the undecided finds Labor on 41% (32.9% at the election), the Coalition on 34% (33.1%) and the Greens on 12% (13.7%). The pollster’s high-profile director of strategy and analytics, Kos Samaras, argues the Liberals’ dismal levels of support in the state among non-religous voters, Indian Australians and Buddhists in general puts it in an unwinnable position.

• In his column in the Age/Herald on Saturday, George Megalogenis wrote that “private polling for the Yes campaign is more encouraging” than this week’s Resolve Strategic result of 53-47 (although Kos Samaras of RedBridge argues social desirability bias effects in polling on such questions means proponents should not feel comfortable of even a national majority unless polling has it clear of 55-45). However, Megalogenis says “Queensland is now assumed as lost, with Western Australia doubtful”, with “Tasmania as the potential swing state”.

• The West Australian provides a sketchy report of polling by Painted Dog Research gauging the opinions of 1409 voters in Western Australia on Anthony Albanese, Peter Dutton and Jim Chalmers. Albanese recorded an approval rating of “just under half”, with 26% dissatisfied, with Peter Dutton apparently scoring a parlous 16% approval and 48% disapproval. “About a third” approved of Jim Chalmers’ performance as Treasurer, while “just under a quarter disapproved”.

• The Age/Herald yesterday reported results on issue salience from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll, finding the cost of living with a huge lead as the highest priority issue, identified as such by 48% compared with 11% for health care, 10% for the environment and climate change and 8% for management of the economy. Cost of living has ascended to its present level from 16% last January and 25% at the time of the federal election in May.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,202 comments on “Miscellany: Freshwater Strategy polling, by-election latest and more (open thread)”

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  1. WWP, here’s a questionaire for ya;

    Is Tesla the largest seller of EV’s in the world? yes/no

    Is Tesla the most profitable seller of EV’s in the world? yes/no

    Is SpaceX the largest seller of launch capability in the world? yes/no

    Is SpaceX the most profitable seller of launch capability in the world? yes/no

    The fact that you feel an unbearable compulsion to lie and find some way to say ‘no’ to any of those questions is what’s called ‘cognitive dissonance’. And it is a common problem with people that are in cults that are faced with objective facts.

    Dig yourself out of the hate hole brah. As long as you’re in it, you’re no different than a trumper.

  2. AR: “Everyone who thinks ”

    Strawman.

    I specifically addressed someone talking out of their nether regions by pointing out exactly what they were saying was wrong and why. You’re the one that is trying to hand-wave away those bullshit claims by trying to denigrate the person taking them to task. All you have is blind hatred of Musk. That is the only thing you bring to this discussion.

    AR: ” That doesn’t make him a good person.”

    As if I have said anything that makes that statement relevant.

    AR: “the difference between leadership and execution.”

    Let’s just compare outcomes then. Answer the questionaire above yourself. You’re the one that wants to make people believe that Tesla and SpaceX are somehow not the best companies in the world at what they do, and/or that the person who objectively runs these companies has nothing to do with that success, because you have a cultish like hatred of Musk. You’re no different to trumpers hating Biden.

  3. Pi @ #1050 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 3:52 pm

    I specifically addressed someone talking out of their nether regions by pointing out exactly what they were saying was wrong and why.

    You didn’t point out why, you claimed that a test in which several engines failed to ignite, leading to the mid-flight destruction of the vehicle, and in which the launch facility experienced an unplanned demolition (plus various environmental impacts that are just starting to work their way through the courts) was successful because it was “tested in exactly the same way that ALL SpaceX rockets have been tested”.

    Which…no. A test isn’t a success just because you run it in the same way as other, previously successful tests. A test is a success when the thing you’re testing works the way it’s supposed to. In no way did that happen with the Starship launch.

    You’re […] trying to denigrate the person taking them to task.

    Did not. If you want to talk denigration, you’re the one flippantly painting everyone critical of Elon as motivated by “blind hatred”.

    You’re the one that wants to make people believe that Telsa and SpaceX are somehow not the best companies in the world at what they do

    Nope. The companies are fine and their products are fine. I said as much. That’s just got very little to do with Elon. He doesn’t build the rockets, or the cars. Doesn’t design them either.

    In point of fact, both companies have established significant reverse-management frameworks (as in, “manage your manager”) insulating their day-to-day operations from Elon. This came out in relation to his Twitter takeover. Twitter obviously had no such thing, hence the struggle. The Model Y wouldn’t have a steering wheel if not for this, ffs.

  4. ar: “You didn’t point out why,”

    Did I not say this? “Musk rockets are amazingly successful. ”

    ar: “everyone critical of Elon”

    Strawman. YOU are the ones that try to call anyone who actually knows about SpaceX and Tesla ‘cultists’. Stop being offended when you’re called out for the thing that you are doing to others.

    ar: “That’s just got very little to do with Elon.”

    CEO of the two most successful technology companies in the world in their respective classes doesn’t have anything to do with the companies he objectively runs? Uh-huh. And you don’t see how crazy that sounds to anyone?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance

  6. Pi says:

    CEO of the two most successful technology companies in the world in their respective classes doesn’t have anything to do with the companies he objectively runs?
    ____________
    Musk clearly has enough technical knowledge, more than any other CEO, to know who is talking shit to him and where to put people to advantage. Clearly he doesn’t design everything. But having enough knowledge to know who is capable is clearly a great advantage.

  7. disantos has dun little on climate change andgiventhe republicans largily apose electrick vehiclees and reducing carbon emtitions wonder whiy musk is a strrong republican he shaires Disantosis hipocritical view on fredom of speech only free speech is stuff musk aproves

  8. after buying a declining twitter which trump does not need after media reports his evry action musk indotrces Disantos whoes support is colapsing in the poles he has lost dizney fans and disantos is anti gay rights and trans gender a very smart business move backing the republicans whoapose climate change action

  9. could musks indorsement knowing thankfully Desantos the most unpleasent politician in the us has no chance of becoming president is rewarding him for floriders subsedies to tesla how ever musk aposis subsidies to any one else competing with him

  11. In reference to an American cartoon a few pages back, showing Joe Biden casting a small shadow while little Robert F Kennedy junior casts a large one. I know what the cartoonist is suggesting, but I think they’re way off base.
    Biden has achieved more than his critics suggested, in the face of tough Republican and conservative Democrats’ opposition.
    More to the point, Robert Kennedy is not even a shadow of his namesake and father, nor even of his uncles, President John and Senator Edward Kennedy. He started out in public life as a fierce advocate of renewable energy, but then got campaigning with anti-vaxers, including during the Covid lockdown.
    I also hear, though I’m not sure, that Kennedy junior is a great admirer of Vladimir Putin. I don’t know why this particular apple has rolled so far from the tree that it’s out of sight, but he is one Kennedy we don’t want anywhere near the White House or any other public office.

  12. Starlink transforming agriculture:

    After years of struggling with bad internet, a farm manager in north-west Victoria has strapped Starlink satellite internet kits to his tractors while sowing.

    “We could lose up to two hours when you change paddocks if the file hasn’t been sent through the cloud,” Mr Gladman said.

    Data is also being shared by the two tractors, so both drivers can see what land has been sown.

    “If one [tractor] happens to pass over where the other one’s been it will also turn off the section control, so there’s some big savings in fertiliser and seed,” Mr Gladman said.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2023-04-29/starlink-satellite-internet-grain-crop-sowing-elon-musk-tractors/102271368

  13. Parkes: ” Robert F Kennedy junior ”

    Every US election cycle the conservatives roll out a candidate that is nominally democrat as a spanner in the works of the democratic primaries. Tulsi Gabbard was the last one. They have no hope of winning. They’re there to syphon off votes from the chosen Democrat candidate.

  14. Sir Henry Parkes,
    It was an Ultra Conservative cartoonist. BK includes them for ‘balance’. So I would pay it little heed.

  16. A major fire is currently raging in Sydney’s CBD on Randle St in Surry Hills. The fire erupted about 4pm today when a multi-storey apartment building became engulfed in flames and the smoke can be seen from blocks away. Parts of the building, located near Central Station, have collapsed. Fire and Rescue NSW Superintendent Adam Dewberry said 10 fire trucks were at the scene.

  17. Regarding the campaign for the Voice to Parliament, it’s interesting that its critics on the right claim it will privilege Indigenous people over all the rest of us Australians, while those on the left, such as Lidia Thorpe, claim it will be nothing but a powerless talk shop.
    It reminds me somewhat of the No campaign against the 1999 Republic referendum, with monarchists claiming on the one hand that Australia was already a “crowned republic”, so actually becoming a republic was an unnecessary move.
    On the other hand, No campaigners claimed that this modest change would result in an all-powerful prime minister who could just about rule the country with no accountability. Some anti-republican leftists I knew said they feared it would create an all-powerful presidency.
    It doesn’t matter if the arguments contradict one another or are nonsense, just so long as they seed sufficient doubt amongst voters that they vote to reject the proposal.
    I very much fear the Voice is headed in the same direction as the Republic. I’m not sure how we counteract the lies and misinformation being spread, but we have to get moving.
    If the Voice is voted down, it will be a long time before I can feel positive about my country again.

  20. I just checked the news reports. It’s an unoccupied building.

    Heritage-listed? Check.
    Development application (hotel)? Check.

    Nothing to see here, move along…

  21. Sir Henry Parkes @ #1070 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 5:00 pm

    Regarding the campaign for the Voice to Parliament, it’s interesting that its critics on the right claim it will privilege Indigenous people over all the rest of us Australians, while those on the left, such as Lidia Thorpe, claim it will be nothing but a powerless talk shop.
    It reminds me somewhat of the No campaign against the 1999 Republic referendum, with monarchists claiming on the one hand that Australia was already a “crowned republic”, so actually becoming a republic was an unnecessary move.
    On the other hand, No campaigners claimed that this modest change would result in an all-powerful prime minister who could just about rule the country with no accountability. Some anti-republican leftists I knew said they feared it would create an all-powerful presidency.
    It doesn’t matter if the arguments contradict one another or are nonsense, just so long as they seed sufficient doubt amongst voters that they vote to reject the proposal.
    I very much fear the Voice is headed in the same direction as the Republic. I’m not sure how we counteract the lies and misinformation being spread, but we have to get moving.
    If the Voice is voted down, it will be a long time before I can feel positive about my country again.

    Well if it does fail I hope Labor doesn’t just pathetically throw their hands up give up on reconciliation forever.

    Either way, the real works starts with treaty and truth-telling when the referendum process is concluded.

    Treaty is something you get done between Govt and first nations representatives …and if a future Govt wants to alter an agreed treaty then they can try their luck with that at an election.

    I just don’t want this referendum framed as the be all and end all.

  25. zoomster @ #657 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 9:16 am

    There’s also some interesting questions to ask about the management of the nursing home.

    THEY couldn’t cope with an old lady wielding a steak knife and a walker.

    They were the ones who thought calling in the police was the appropriate action.

    All the helpful suggestions about handling her were equally available to them.

    (Not excusing the police, just wondering why they were called in to begin with).

    I can answer this for you. I spoke to my son, he’s a Disability Care Worker, but has also done Aged Care. So there is a specific policy, called Restricted Practice, which states that you cannot touch a client without their permission. You can probably work the rest out for yourself. Especially when it comes to Dementia clients. Hence the workers have to call police for any situation where they cannot talk down the client.

  33. BK @ #380 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 5:17 pm

    I just checked the news reports. It’s an unoccupied building.
    _______
    A certain type of stocktake?

    The Google Maps street view of the building shows that it had multiple broken windows, and lots of ‘stuff’ inside. A video on the Guardian site a few minutes ago showed the brick walls of the top four storeys collapsing, with a huge burst of fire, into, and across, the narrow lane behind. This will almost certainly have seriously damaged the five storey apartment building on the other side of the lane, which fronts Chalmers St, and set those apartments on fire.

  35. Wasn’t starlink a google project they abandoned on extremely sound ethical grounds?

    Google ffs, if they think something is unethical wow it is really unethical.

  36. https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/05/22/miscellany-freshwater-strategy-polling-by-election-latest-and-more-open-thread/comment-page-22/#comment-4114764

    https://get.skymesh.net.au/starlink-comparison/?msclkid=5c87ed58f6331b4fe1148900c27ea04c&utm_source=bing&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=Starlink&utm_term=starlink%20australia&utm_content=Starlink

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/feb/15/liberals-complain-rural-kids-cant-game-on-nbn-satellites-as-users-jump-ship-to-musks-starlink

    https://www.whistleout.com.au/Broadband/Guides/Starlink-vs-NBN

    Starlink’s latency is better, speeds are better though in some markets/ footprints they have put up some restrictions (though Nbnco has had convoluted quotas and congestion for some time, be it Ka-band or previously interim Ku-band), they are running a rural/ remote Australia promo …

    A few years ago ZDNet has a scathing Nbnco’s Rolls Royce satellite strategy post, can’t find it at the moment

  38. If people want to keep their household internet bills low they should stick with the Govt owned internet product.

    We’ve seen what happens when essential services and infrastructure is privatised.

  40. And that burning building just happens to be next to a Metro Station portal and new Central walkway opening in about 18 months…

  41. Randle street Surrey Hills abuts Holt St – HQ of the Murdoch Evil Empire (Australian franchise).

    Surely just a coincidence…

  44. BK

    “I just checked the news reports. It’s an unoccupied building.
    _______
    A certain type of stocktake?”

    Well no need for a heritage assessment now. Just lodge your application, clear the site and start your development.

  45. ”
    KAGEsays:
    Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 3:20 pm
    Having just read Meher Baba’s contribution to the debate on the Voice, can I just say MB is obviously not lawyer and most certainly not an expert on Australian Constitution. MB knows very little about the treatment of advice to the Executive or the Parliament. Advice is what it is; no more, no less. It can be ignored, it can be followed. The Voice is no different to any other influential Lobby group except that it is constitutionally recognised (to prevent it being legislated out of existence) and funded by the Commonwealth (being the voice of the most disadvantaged people in the country).
    ”

    What Voice does is start the process of what NZ, USA and Canada did with their native people a long time ago. I don’t know whether natives are recognised in those countries constitutions but they all have treaties with them.

    Remember Paul Keating Redfern speech.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redfern_Park_Speech#:~:text=We%20practised%20discrimination%20and%20exclusion,of%20the%20greatest%20Australian%20speeches.

    “Keating was the first Australian prime minister to publicly acknowledge to Indigenous Australians that European settlers were responsible for the difficulties Australian Aboriginal communities continued to face: “It was we who did the dispossessing”, he said. “We took the traditional lands and smashed the traditional way of life. We brought the diseases and the alcohol.” He went on: “We committed the murders. We took the children from their mothers. We practised discrimination and exclusion. It was our ignorance and our prejudice. And our failure to imagine that these things could be done to us”.[5]”

  46. Hearing the ICAC report into GladysB not feathering her boyfriend’s corrupt shooting range, is close to hitting the streets.

    Predicting a poor corruption season for the Liberal Party at all levels…

  48. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 5:14 pm
    Sir Henry Parkes @ #1070 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 5:00 pm
    If the Voice is voted down, it will be a long time before I can feel positive about my country again.

    Well if it does fail I hope Labor doesn’t just pathetically throw their hands up give up on reconciliation forever.

    Either way, the real works starts with treaty and truth-telling when the referendum process is concluded.

    Treaty is something you get done between Govt and first nations representatives …and if a future Govt wants to alter an agreed treaty then they can try their luck with that at an election.

    I just don’t want this referendum framed as the be all and end all.
    __________________________________________________________
    Is that because Lidia Thorpe is advocating a No vote Rex?
    If the Australian people do reject the Voice, do you think they’re going to be suddenly ready to discuss a treaty with our First Nations? You remind me of those direct election republicans in 1999, who assured us that if we rejected the more conservative republican model on offer, then the people would suddenly be eager to embrace a more radical proposal.
    In any case, which representatives of First Nations are going to be negotiating the treaty? How will they be selected? By popular vote among First Nations people? Isn’t that what the Voice to Parliament would be?
    The Uluru statement also stressed the importance of treaty. The Voice would comprise legitimate representatives who could push for the treaty.
    That’s why I don’t understand why Lidia Thorpe opposes the Voice, unless she fancies herself the First Nations representative who will sign the treaty.
    The Voice might not be the be-all, end-all, but I think we better treat it as if it is.

  49. sprocket_ @ #1097 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 6:11 pm

    Hearing the ICAC report into GladysB not feathering her boyfriend’s corrupt shooting range, is close to hitting the streets.

    Predicting a poor corruption season for the Liberal Party at all levels…

    I think I read it is being delayed until the NACC commences on July 1, so the commissioner may refer directly.

  50. sprocket_ @ #851 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 6:11 pm

    Hearing the ICAC report into GladysB not feathering her boyfriend’s corrupt shooting range, is close to hitting the streets.

    Predicting a poor corruption season for the Liberal Party at all levels…

    For the Liberal Party it’s shaping to be the Winter of their discontent.

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