Miscellany: Freshwater Strategy polling, by-election latest and more (open thread)

An unorthodox set of voting intention numbers from Freshwater Strategy, more signs of a narrowing on the Indigenous Voice, and the closure of nominations for the Liberal National Party preselection in Fadden.

The Financial Review had a set of federal voting intention numbers on Friday from Freshwater Strategy, which were highly distinctive in having Labor leading by only 52-48, compared with 54-46 from the last such poll in December. The primary votes were Labor 34% (down three), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 12% (steady) and 17% for the rest. Anthony Albanese was on 42% approval (down six) and 37% disapproval (up seven), a substantially narrower net positive rating than recorded by other pollsters, while Peter Dutton had less anomalous numbers of 30% (up one) and 42% (up four). A preferred prime minister question had Albanese with an usually narrow lead of 51-33, in from 55-29. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1005.

Further findings from the poll:

• Support for the Indigenous Voice was down two since December to 48% while opposition was up ten to 39%, including a 20-point increase among Coalition voters and a seven point increase among Labor and Greens voters. This converted to 55-45 after exclusion of the undecided, in from 65-35.

• Only nine per cent felt the budget would put downward pressure on inflation and interest rates, compared with 52% who thought the opposite and 23% who said it would have no effect. Forty-eight per cent felt the country was heading in the wrong direction, up six, compared with 37% for right direction, down seven.

• Seventy per cent supported Peter Dutton’s call for sport gambling ads to be curtailed, with 13% opposed, and 59% supported his proposal to allow the unemployed to earn $150 a fortnight more without affecting their JobSeeker rate.

By-election latest:

• Amy Remeikis of The Guardian reports five candidates have emerged for Liberal National Party preselection in Fadden, with nominations having closed last Friday and a ballot of eligible local members to be conducted this Friday. The Gold Coast Bulletin identifies four of them: Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who is widely rated the front-runner; Dinesh Palipana, emergency doctor at Gold Coast University Hospital and the state’s first quadriplegic medical graduate; Fran Ward, founder of a charity supporting distressed farmers; and Owen Carterer, who would appear to have a low profile. “Long-term members” were backing Caldwell, but Palipana had support from “Young LNP party members linked to state MP Sam O’Connor”, though critics were arguing he would do better to run at the state election.

• The Age/Herald reported a spokesperson for Scott Morrison saying his departure from parliament was “not imminent”, and would certainly not be soon enough to allow for joint by-elections in Fadden and his seat of Cook. However, it could “possibly come at the end of the year”.

Other news from around the place:

• David Penberthy of The Australian reported last week that bitterly fought Liberal Senate preselection looms in South Australia, the flashpoint being the position of Senator Alex Antic. Together with like-minded Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick, Antic withdrew parliamentary support from the Morrison government in protest against mandatory vaccinations, and has lately courted far right sentiment by mocking Volodomyr Zelenskyy in parliament and following it up with a theatrically disingenuous apology. Antic was elected from third position on the ticket in 2019, behind Anne Ruston and David Fawcett. As religious conservatives make headway in a push to take control of a party that took a distinctly moderate turn under Steven Marshall’s one-term state government, there are said to be some hoping Antic might be pushed to the top of the ticket (though an unidentified and presumably conservative party figure is quoted denying it), and others hoping he might be dumped altogether.

• Sumeyya Ilanbey of The Age reports Victorian Liberal state president Greg Mirabella told state council yesterday that an external report into the Aston by-election found defeated candidate Roshena Campbell had “the highest recognition and positivity among Liberal names, even when compared with outgoing federal Liberal MP Alan Tudge”. This would not seem to sit will with a view that has taken hold in the party that Campbell’s lack of local connection to the seat explained the result, as reflected in Peter Dutton’s determination that a local should succeed Stuart Robert in Fadden.

• RedBridge Group has results from polling of Victorian voters on federal voting intention, which after exclusion of the undecided finds Labor on 41% (32.9% at the election), the Coalition on 34% (33.1%) and the Greens on 12% (13.7%). The pollster’s high-profile director of strategy and analytics, Kos Samaras, argues the Liberals’ dismal levels of support in the state among non-religous voters, Indian Australians and Buddhists in general puts it in an unwinnable position.

• In his column in the Age/Herald on Saturday, George Megalogenis wrote that “private polling for the Yes campaign is more encouraging” than this week’s Resolve Strategic result of 53-47 (although Kos Samaras of RedBridge argues social desirability bias effects in polling on such questions means proponents should not feel comfortable of even a national majority unless polling has it clear of 55-45). However, Megalogenis says “Queensland is now assumed as lost, with Western Australia doubtful”, with “Tasmania as the potential swing state”.

• The West Australian provides a sketchy report of polling by Painted Dog Research gauging the opinions of 1409 voters in Western Australia on Anthony Albanese, Peter Dutton and Jim Chalmers. Albanese recorded an approval rating of “just under half”, with 26% dissatisfied, with Peter Dutton apparently scoring a parlous 16% approval and 48% disapproval. “About a third” approved of Jim Chalmers’ performance as Treasurer, while “just under a quarter disapproved”.

• The Age/Herald yesterday reported results on issue salience from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll, finding the cost of living with a huge lead as the highest priority issue, identified as such by 48% compared with 11% for health care, 10% for the environment and climate change and 8% for management of the economy. Cost of living has ascended to its present level from 16% last January and 25% at the time of the federal election in May.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,202 comments on “Miscellany: Freshwater Strategy polling, by-election latest and more (open thread)”

Comments Page 19 of 25
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  2. There’s also some interesting questions to ask about the management of the nursing home.

    THEY couldn’t cope with an old lady wielding a steak knife and a walker.

    They were the ones who thought calling in the police was the appropriate action.

    All the helpful suggestions about handling her were equally available to them.

    (Not excusing the police, just wondering why they were called in to begin with).

  3. T**** is going to jail. I forget who originally posted this image on PB, but I saved it as a reminder.

    The former POTUS meanwhile was reduced to begging Garland for a meeting. which was refused. (Garland appointed and supports Smith.) June, July, and August are shaping up as terrible months for T****.

  5. ”
    day, May 25, 2023 at 9:09 am
    ”I don’t remember it being shown during ATM years.”

    It started in 2014 and seasons 1 through 4 ran during the ATM years. A Series 5 has recently started airing on the ABC. The intro of the early series included an audio clip of Tony Abbott declaring himself to be the “Infrastructure Prime Minister”.
    ”

    Steve
    I updated it accordingly. Thanks for pointing. But as I posted, it was based on Rudd years.

  7. If you can manage the time zone difference, watching CNBC at about 1130PM you can catch pretty good discussions about the debt ceiling. They are getting to the point where the brinkmanship alone is starting to cause issues.

    In other fun, close to home news.

    Senate, Legal and Constitutional Affairs Legislation Committee (Senate Estimates) Thu, 25 May 2023 – The AFP are up in about 5 minutes. So keep an eye out. I bet every bit of questioning will be about the higgins trial.

  9. @LateRiser

    Wishful thinking.
    And even if Trump was truly in jail during the next election campaign, DeSantis would just win the presidency which would be even worse than trump. Polls show him to have a positive net favourability rating in just about all surveys.
    Welcome to the new era of conservative Anti-Wokism!

  10. Re what was appropriate during the coronation – amongst other fairly laughable affectations the placing of a vulgar oversized bauble on the balding head of an entitled self-indulgent adulterous born to rule – does anything else need to be referenced than the term Crown Land.

    Crown Land.

    They just said (no ifs buts or sorrys) this belongs to us in the name of the monarch.

    And so we come to this:

    The Labor MP for Gellibrand, Tim Watts, used his speech on the voice referendum legislation last night to reckon with the actions of his ancestor John Watts, who he described as “one of the first squatters on the Darling Downs [in Queensland] and later a member of the first Queensland parliament”.

    Watts spoke of the role John Watts played in the death, destruction and violence of the local Indigenous population.

    In the decades following the arrival of my ancestor, disease, violence and forced resettlement literally decimated the local Indigenous population.

    This alone is a disturbing legacy to grapple with. Regrettably though, it was John Watts’ legacy and his actions as a parliamentarian that caused even greater harm to Indigenous peoples of south-east Queensland.

    And it was here that the failure to recognise and to listen to Indigenous Australians was even more disastrous.

    The parliament set up paramilitary forces in Queensland which Watts described as:

    Historian Jonathan Richards described the operations of the Queensland native police in the following terms: ‘When an attack of any form was made on settlers, the native police responded by tracking Aboriginal people to their camps. Once they had been located, the troopers surrounded the camp, firing their rifles into the sleeping people at dawn. The bodies were usually burnt to cover up the killings.’

    Historians’ estimates of the number of Indigenous Australians killed by the Queensland native police range widely, from 10,000 up to 60,000 people, but it was clear that there were many thousands of murders and rapes committed by this state-sanctioned organisation.

    Historian Henry Reynolds has called it ‘the most violent organisation in Australian history’. The Queensland native police operated under the direct control of the executive council – the governor, the colonial secretary and other senior ministers. And my ancestor, John Watts, as a member of parliament and minister, was thoroughly aware of its activities.

    (guardian live stream)

    But hey, let’s not spoil the the Crowning with a few unpleasantries about what the Crown Has Done.

  11. If you can manage the time zone difference, watching CNBC at about 1130PM you can catch pretty good discussions about the debt ceiling. They are getting to the point where the brinkmanship alone is starting to cause issues.

    Which is why my #1 Son in the US bought a shedload of gold. 😉

    I just hope he cashes it in at the right time. 😐

  14. De Santis isn’t anywhere near as MAGA as he purports to be, so it would be better for America and the world if he, rather than Trump, were to win the Preseidency.

    However, De Santis also appears to be a lousy campaigner and more or less a charisma-free zone. His decision to run against Trump has set up a mismatch comparable to putting Jeff Fenech up against Mike Tyson. His only hope is that Trump eats his last cheeseburger before early next year. Otherwise, I think we’ll see Trump run again and, I fear, win the Presidency back due to Biden’s age and apparent feebleness combined with an apparently universal wish among all Americans (including many African-Americans) for Kamala not to become President.

    It will be most unfortunate if Trump regains the Presidency largely on the back of concerns about Kamala taking over from an ailing Biden. Trump’s win in 2016 was because the Dem leadership effectively made a decision to install Hillary as candidate against the merit priniciple, because it was “her turn.” Then, in 2020, Kamala was installed as VP candidate against the merit principle because this somehow made sense because of George Floyd (even though Kamala’s background could scarcely be more different to Floyd’s).

    It wouldn’t matter but for the potentially terrible consequences for the planet of another Trump presidency.

  15. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 9:23 am
    ItzaDream @ #642 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 9:02 am

    Confessions was right.

    She’s one smart cookie
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    And you take the cake!

  17. The former would get my vote if I had to choose between a malignant narcissist (Trump) and a book-burning ideologue (DeSantis). Despite all his faults, Trump is at least pragmatic.
    That said, I hope someone comes up through the middle.

  18. davo @ #667 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 9:25 am

    Finally, someone stands up to the vicious lady 😡

    “Lidia Thorpe storms out of parliamentary hearing”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-lidia-thorpe-storms-out-of-hearing-after-being-called-a-disgrace-to-her-people-nsw-woman-clare-nowland-95-dies-after-policeman-allegedly-tasered-her-20230524-p5db0a.html

    And she can’t handle it!

    Lidia Thorpe is a Drama Queen.

    Malandirri Macarthy was right. The federal government have put hundreds of millions into the NT for Indigenous programs and all Lidia Thorpe could do was blackguard it. That’s not playing fair over a very important issue.

    And that’s one thing that scares me about the Voice to Parliament. Lidia Thorpe and her family and friends are already calculating how they could game it to get the numbers. 🙁

  19. MelbourneMammoth @ #910 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 9:24 am

    @LateRiser

    Wishful thinking.
    And even if Trump was truly in jail during the next election campaign, DeSantis would just win the presidency which would be even worse than trump. Polls show him to have a positive net favourability rating in just about all surveys.
    Welcome to the new era of conservative Anti-Wokism!

    Nah. He’s gone. As for the Florida guy, 3 in 4 Republicans don’t even want him. The bigger danger is some guy that we’ve never heard of and consequently hasn’t been “examined” doing a Bradbury.

  20. C@tmomma says:
    Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 9:34 am

    And that’s one thing that scares me about the Voice to Parliament. Lidia Thorpe and her family and friends are already calculating how they could game it to get the numbers.
    _____
    It would be disappointing to get a Voice and not have it say what you want it to say.

  22. Late Riser @ #921 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 9:35 am

    MelbourneMammoth @ #910 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 9:24 am

    @LateRiser

    Wishful thinking.
    And even if Trump was truly in jail during the next election campaign, DeSantis would just win the presidency which would be even worse than trump. Polls show him to have a positive net favourability rating in just about all surveys.
    Welcome to the new era of conservative Anti-Wokism!

    Nah. He’s gone. As for the Florida guy, 3 in 4 Republicans don’t even want him. The bigger danger is some guy that we’ve never heard of and consequently hasn’t been “examined” doing a Bradbury.

    or a Scummo…

  23. WeWantPaul says:
    Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 9:10 am
    “Resorting to an ad hominem argument.

    Piffle”

    It was an argument I’m not that kind of financial spiv. Merely an observation. It cut I take it. Piffle indeed.

    ____________

    Not at all. Just calling out the ridiculousness of your comment. Never been a corporate. Never been a lawyer. How about you? 😉

  24. I think as Florida clearly shows De Santis is much much worse than Trump in many ways. A De Santis Presidency will be worse than a Trump presidency, except that it is more likely to have elections afterwards. Rigged elections but elections still.

  25. Who is worse? Toss a coin. But if Trump gets back in I suspect he will be far worse than last time. It will be his last term, nothing to lose, plenty of enemies to go after. Who knows what will happen.

  26. “Not at all. Just calling out the ridiculousness of your comment. Never been a corporate. Never been a lawyer. How about you? ”

    Look so the light on the hill is now an NFT powered by crypto in thr vault of a privatised bank, but I’m sure the homeless find great comfort in that.

    And when have the spivs ever let us down on anything.

  27. “Who is worse? Toss a coin. But if Trump gets back in I suspect he will be far worse than last time. It will be his last term, nothing to lose, plenty of enemies to go after. Who knows what will happen.”

    100% agree.

  28. Trump only has 4 years to suspend the constitution and declare himself and his heirs and successors permanent rulers of the US, De Santis could take his time over 8 years.

  31. Jeff Tiedrich reviews T****’s various legal troubles.
    http://www.jefftiedrich.com/p/donald-trumps-legal-hell-just-keeps

    Jeff links to the NYT link describing T****’s pleading with Garland. This is a free-to-read version of that link. It describes a foot-stomping, no-fair, what-about-him, cringeworthy whine from T****’s lawyers.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/23/us/politics/trump-lawyers-meeting-garland-special-counsel.html?unlocked_article_code=1m_hL6_Ruy09VBm4qtiOKRoIcPWRSH7l435B29sriQW8l6LFwfM7glAwf7-pulqn-dsPQA7oRcGWZngyYb3gKMZuGPe2hdWoJK8qhbDse31nD2keGZcW6z4d-yFlkQt56mix0VgV23kCBOAz5YQr8l3Toj5scnScJPW2mQ1qDljAgJKcZqJVROXhTrh6HnM9UadNVQrdRtItHh05OtMTsamXbpKJvvqHwJDNRjgY_VsqttbtQ_U7r4Jc8oGrMWqED74UF2uqf6DSRPHSwBV5dfB_APokdg83UawXZaO4dIu06R2iV1Ht0phFt9P46VCoO9LELDyuxaVQgeRIbAsxzaJWpOkwNF9tm5z2K0NQjdzLdfyfhhnvOFcmHbU&smid=url-share

    The NYT concludes, “Jack Smith is running this investigation, not Merrick Garland.”

  33. Ven says:
    Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 7:52 am

    Pascoe gone all bitter and twisted. He’s obviously short of a story.

  34. Ven @ #844 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 7:34 am

    Then what could be intent to taser a 95 year old, who is walking with walker? A person, who uses a walker holds it with both hands. Obviously a 95 year old using walker cannot rush towards the police.
    That policeman is 33 years old.

    I don’t know. It was a hugely stupid idea all around. But I think proving beyond a reasonable doubt that the officer intended his taser to have lethal effect would be very difficult. He presumably also had access to an actual firearm which he could have used if he had been intending to kill.

    None of which is to defend the officer or what he did. I just think manslaughter is what can reasonably be proven in the legal context.

  35. I also see Niki Savva peddling the Albo ‘centrist’ myth when all the policy facts show it as a right wing party for elites and corporate multi-nationals at the expense of those struggling and living in poverty.

    The corporate MSM protect and perpetuate the scam of a two party preferred polity – where both parties protect and further the interests of the rich, the powerful and the environmental vandals.

  39. Aaron newton @ #354 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 7:50 am

    so what could of the police dun in stead of what they did use some other way it would be a dificult position for the police officor

    Leather jacket, gardening gloves and a blanket.

    Unless you are a profoundly stupid, gung-ho armed cop.

    In that case blasting the evil old cow with whatever you’ve got is obviously the only alternative.

    Being charged with assault causing grievous bodily harm is of no import whatsoever when there is a chance to use your weapons! Nobody got charged when three NSW cops tasered a shirtless, healthy unarmed, 21 year old Brazilian student to death in Pitt St, Sydney, after all. Oh sorry, he was armed with a Mars bar.

  40. meher baba says:
    Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 8:21 am

    The media in Australia have become utterly unbearable. Radio, tv and print are really unimaginably bad….and mostly this is attributable to Murdoch. I no longer watch, read or listen to mass media if I can possibly avoid it. I expect I miss some events of note. But I am spared the endlessly detestable, cajoling attempts at manipulation and deception that are published or broadcast 24/7 by the Murdoch-coached MSM.

    The Reactionaries expect submission from all in the public domain. They are truly vile.

  41. meher baba @ #362 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 8:21 am

    Once again your comments expose your baked-in racism, which has been exposed on here multiple times. Tell us again how the Victorian coroner was wrong when he pointed out that on the same day that police allowed an indigenous lady, who had been evil enough to fall asleep on a train, to die in a cell after deliberately ignoring her cries for help, police drove a drunk white woman removed from the same train to her home.

    You loudly proclaimed that indigenous people were treated by the police in the same way as white people. That is patently wrong, and you are impervious to factual information. Your interpretation of any information about indigenous disadvantage is, as always, immutably biased and warped. On this subject, you are, like Dutton, incapable of thinking straight.

  42. The federal Finance department has directed PwC to “stand down” from all government contracts any personnel who knew about tax leaks, as the Albanese government ramps up its response to the scandal.

    Finance secretary Jenny Wilkinson emailed all staff on Wednesday, saying the government’s 413 contracts with major supplies would be tightened, so that “existing and future contacts” could be cancelled for bad behaviour.

    “We have directed PwC to stand down personnel directly involved in, or who had knowledge of, the significant breach from all existing and future contracts under the Management Advisory Services Panel and requesting PwC stand down these personnel in all Commonwealth contracts until the review of PwC’s culture and governance (to be led by Ziggy Switkowski) is complete at which point this direction will be reviewed,” Ms Wilkinson wrote in the email.

    She also said procurement rules would be changed to provide “greater flexibility for contract managers to terminate a contract for material breach”. “And we are varying the head agreement for all 413 suppliers that are on the Management Advisory Services Panel over the coming weeks to include these strengthened clauses. “This would allow Finance to remove a supplier from the panel and cancel all existing and future contracts, including in respect of behaviour that is outside the specific scope of the services delivered under the panel.”
    https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/pwc-told-to-stand-down-all-staff-who-knew-of-leaks-from-federal-work-20230525-p5db5d

  43. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 10:12 am
    Vale Tina Turner.
    Loved her music and powerful performance.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Certainly was the night she gave me a small hug at the Brighton Beach Hotel.

  44. Dr John says:
    Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 10:40 am

    Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 10:12 am
    Vale Tina Turner.
    Loved her music and powerful performance.

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Certainly was the night she gave me a small hug at the Brighton Beach Hotel.
    ______________
    Was that the same night that you partied with the Rolling Stones?

  45. nath says:
    Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 10:41 am

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    The Stones party in St Kilda was 1967 and meeting Tina was 30 years later.
    Have a nice day.

  46. Holdenhillbilly @ #940 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 10:39 am

    The federal Finance department has directed PwC to “stand down” from all government contracts any personnel who knew about tax leaks, as the Albanese government ramps up its response to the scandal.

    What a shame. If Finance had simply omitted the “any personnel who knew about tax leaks” part of that direction it would have been an appropriate response.

  47. David Shoebridge
    @DavidShoebridge
    ·
    3m
    Breaking

    We have just uncovered in budget estimates that the AFP who are currently investigating breaches of the law by PwC have PwC as their internal auditors with wide scale access to information and systems.

    That’s an impossible conflict of interest.

  48. A ridiculous voting system and rampant gerrymandering notwithstanding, I can’t see a majority of US voters wanting more guns, more book burning, more anti-women legislation, and more of whatever else the right wing loons can dream up.

  49. The dirty deal by Labor and Libs to block transparency of infrastructure spending and continue pork-barrelling should shock voters.

  50. Integrity: “dirty deal by Labor and Libs to block transparency of infrastructure spending”

    It’s the dirty deal between the greens and the LNP blocking social housing legislation that is of concern to people. The greens and the LNP are doing everything they can to distract from that reality.

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