Resolve Strategic: Labor 44, Coalition 31, Greens 9 in New South Wales

A garden variety post-change of government poll in New South Wales records a honeymoon voting intention lead and seemingly little name recognition for the new Opposition Leader.

Resolve Strategic produces the first public poll of New South Wales state voting intention since the election of the Minns government in March, finding Labor’s honeymoon kicking in with a lead over the Coalition of 44% to 31% on the primary vote, compared with 37.0% to 35.4% at the election, with the Greens on 9% as compared with 9.7%. I make this to be a two-party preferred lead of about 60-40 based on preference flows at the election. Chris Minns scores a 42-12 lead over the new Opposition Leader, Mark Speakman, as preferred premier.

The poll combines results from the pollster’s last two national polls, which were conducted from April 12 to 16 and May 10 to 14, from a combined sample of 1102. The 552 from the more recent survey period were asked to pick three cost of living pressures as being of most concern: with little change from January, fresh food and groceries led in being chosen by 65%, followed by utility bills with 58%. Medical expenses falls from 34% to 25%, relinquishing third place to the cost of a home on 28%.

UPDATE: An instructive talk by Antony Green on the March state election at the New South Wales State Library can be viewed on the parliamentary website.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

24 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 44, Coalition 31, Greens 9 in New South Wales”

  1. If NSW Labor can get 45 seats for 2PP in the election, maybe with 2PP 60-40 they will get 55 seats.
    What 60-40 means is that NSW people are conveying to the NSW Labor government that they are fully behind it and Government should Go ahead and implement their promises.

  2. There was a rather disturbing report in the SMH this week on just how much of NSW’s public and social housing was sold off by the last government. What a cruel lot.

  3. I see Chris Minns is working methodically through election promises..

    Pubs and clubs will have to remove all external gambling signage promoting VIP Lounges or players’ rooms within three months or face hefty fines as the state government cracks down on venues flouting laws.

    NSW Labor vowed to remove external signage as part of its gambling reform package, which was released in response to a damning NSW Crime Commission report that found criminals were using poker machines to wash dirty money in clubs.

  4. it sseems like nsw labors gambling reforms are stronger then the liberals all the liberals were offering was cashlis gaming inafter two elections time not sure whiy clubs cant use signige and cant donate to political parties

  5. well mark speakman is not doing much as opposition leader maybi he is still looking to jump to cook when morrison retires Tim costellow was very upset when he found out labor had a more stronger gambling policy was hopeing the ishue would save perottit

  6. Have to say, been quite impressed by Minns so far, at least from what I’ve been able to observe north of the border.

  7. Removing signage from gambling venues is fine, but it’s not going to have much impact on the flow of billions of dollars of gambling losses each year into the coffers of the NSW gambling industry. I’m happy to give the new government the benefit of the doubt for now, but if the end result of gambling reform is not a redirection of a substantial proportion of that money back into the pockets of NSW families, little will have been achieved. Cashless gaming cards with mandatory loss limits are the solution.

    I think Minns has made a solid start, but it’s early days. I think infrastructure, or lack thereof, will eventually emerge as a major problem for Minns in future years. He doesn’t have the money to fund the wage rises which workers on the state government payroll have been promised (and which they richly deserve), and also fund the transport infrastructure that Sydney is going to need as rapid population growth resumes.

  8. Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham

    #ResolvePM NSW (state) ALP 44 L-NP 31 Green 9 IND 10 other 5; this would be a huge honeymoon boost for Labor (c. 60-40) but Resolve has been frequently getting larger leads for Labor than other polls outside election campaigns.

  9. NSW Premier Chris Minns fends off fight with union boss, but more combatants are waiting in the wings

    “On a day when elderly patients were left stranded without government transport, hanging out with UFC fighters was an interesting political move.

    It could be viewed as a metaphor — Premier Chris Minns is in for a stoush.

    But to boast about securing three cage-fighting events for Sydney when health workers are taking industrial action, and crying out for a pay rise, risks the perception of looking uncaring, antagonistic even.

    The premier’s press conference was picturesque with the Opera House in the background.

    He excitedly announced he was a “fan” and wanted to put UFC on a “pedestal” in the state.”

  10. is gerard hayes ever happy he seemstoo allways be complaining about somthing this was the same union leader who installed minns against the wishes of the branches and cost labor fowler in federal parliament

  11. how could hayes be a labor heavey wait that would be Daniiel walton minns closist union backer who will probaly enter parliament one day he could not get his hand picked candadate in fowler and bowen is the leading nsw mp

  12. “Former Liberal leader Kerry Chikarovski’s son bailed for alleged drug dealing on dark web”
    I wonder if he ever drug dealed with Ray Hadley’s son.

    Tough on crime, unless it’s one of our kids.

  13. “A Chika roll (sic) and Coke … traditional tradies’ lunch.”
    I was always partial to a farmers union and a kebab

  14. Aaron newton:
    “ray hadley was not happy when media reportid on his sons problims”

    Has he stopped beating his wife?

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