The Financial Review had a set of federal voting intention numbers on Friday from Freshwater Strategy, which were highly distinctive in having Labor leading by only 52-48, compared with 54-46 from the last such poll in December. The primary votes were Labor 34% (down three), Coalition 37% (steady), Greens 12% (steady) and 17% for the rest. Anthony Albanese was on 42% approval (down six) and 37% disapproval (up seven), a substantially narrower net positive rating than recorded by other pollsters, while Peter Dutton had less anomalous numbers of 30% (up one) and 42% (up four). A preferred prime minister question had Albanese with an usually narrow lead of 51-33, in from 55-29. The poll was conducted Monday to Wednesday from a sample of 1005.
Further findings from the poll:
• Support for the Indigenous Voice was down two since December to 48% while opposition was up ten to 39%, including a 20-point increase among Coalition voters and a seven point increase among Labor and Greens voters. This converted to 55-45 after exclusion of the undecided, in from 65-35.
• Only nine per cent felt the budget would put downward pressure on inflation and interest rates, compared with 52% who thought the opposite and 23% who said it would have no effect. Forty-eight per cent felt the country was heading in the wrong direction, up six, compared with 37% for right direction, down seven.
• Seventy per cent supported Peter Dutton’s call for sport gambling ads to be curtailed, with 13% opposed, and 59% supported his proposal to allow the unemployed to earn $150 a fortnight more without affecting their JobSeeker rate.
By-election latest:
• Amy Remeikis of The Guardian reports five candidates have emerged for Liberal National Party preselection in Fadden, with nominations having closed last Friday and a ballot of eligible local members to be conducted this Friday. The Gold Coast Bulletin identifies four of them: Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who is widely rated the front-runner; Dinesh Palipana, emergency doctor at Gold Coast University Hospital and the state’s first quadriplegic medical graduate; Fran Ward, founder of a charity supporting distressed farmers; and Owen Carterer, who would appear to have a low profile. “Long-term members” were backing Caldwell, but Palipana had support from “Young LNP party members linked to state MP Sam O’Connor”, though critics were arguing he would do better to run at the state election.
• The Age/Herald reported a spokesperson for Scott Morrison saying his departure from parliament was “not imminent”, and would certainly not be soon enough to allow for joint by-elections in Fadden and his seat of Cook. However, it could “possibly come at the end of the year”.
Other news from around the place:
• David Penberthy of The Australian reported last week that bitterly fought Liberal Senate preselection looms in South Australia, the flashpoint being the position of Senator Alex Antic. Together with like-minded Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick, Antic withdrew parliamentary support from the Morrison government in protest against mandatory vaccinations, and has lately courted far right sentiment by mocking Volodomyr Zelenskyy in parliament and following it up with a theatrically disingenuous apology. Antic was elected from third position on the ticket in 2019, behind Anne Ruston and David Fawcett. As religious conservatives make headway in a push to take control of a party that took a distinctly moderate turn under Steven Marshall’s one-term state government, there are said to be some hoping Antic might be pushed to the top of the ticket (though an unidentified and presumably conservative party figure is quoted denying it), and others hoping he might be dumped altogether.
• Sumeyya Ilanbey of The Age reports Victorian Liberal state president Greg Mirabella told state council yesterday that an external report into the Aston by-election found defeated candidate Roshena Campbell had “the highest recognition and positivity among Liberal names, even when compared with outgoing federal Liberal MP Alan Tudge”. This would not seem to sit will with a view that has taken hold in the party that Campbell’s lack of local connection to the seat explained the result, as reflected in Peter Dutton’s determination that a local should succeed Stuart Robert in Fadden.
• RedBridge Group has results from polling of Victorian voters on federal voting intention, which after exclusion of the undecided finds Labor on 41% (32.9% at the election), the Coalition on 34% (33.1%) and the Greens on 12% (13.7%). The pollster’s high-profile director of strategy and analytics, Kos Samaras, argues the Liberals’ dismal levels of support in the state among non-religous voters, Indian Australians and Buddhists in general puts it in an unwinnable position.
• In his column in the Age/Herald on Saturday, George Megalogenis wrote that “private polling for the Yes campaign is more encouraging” than this week’s Resolve Strategic result of 53-47 (although Kos Samaras of RedBridge argues social desirability bias effects in polling on such questions means proponents should not feel comfortable of even a national majority unless polling has it clear of 55-45). However, Megalogenis says “Queensland is now assumed as lost, with Western Australia doubtful”, with “Tasmania as the potential swing state”.
• The West Australian provides a sketchy report of polling by Painted Dog Research gauging the opinions of 1409 voters in Western Australia on Anthony Albanese, Peter Dutton and Jim Chalmers. Albanese recorded an approval rating of “just under half”, with 26% dissatisfied, with Peter Dutton apparently scoring a parlous 16% approval and 48% disapproval. “About a third” approved of Jim Chalmers’ performance as Treasurer, while “just under a quarter disapproved”.
• The Age/Herald yesterday reported results on issue salience from last week’s Resolve Strategic poll, finding the cost of living with a huge lead as the highest priority issue, identified as such by 48% compared with 11% for health care, 10% for the environment and climate change and 8% for management of the economy. Cost of living has ascended to its present level from 16% last January and 25% at the time of the federal election in May.
Parkes: “No vote Rex?”
Integrity is only interested in political outcomes that allow him to attack the ALP. There will be no outcome that won’t be used by him to attack the ALP. When the ALP is in opposition, he attacks the ALP. When they’re in government he attacks the ALP. Every policy is either too much of X to justify attacking them, or too little of X to justify attacking them. If the voice is successful, he’ll attack the ALP. If it is unsuccessful, he’ll attack the ALP.
Once you understand that about his modus operandi, all of his arguments are consistent.
Sir Henry Parkes,
Lidia Thorpe is cynically having 2 bob each way on the Voice. She’s campaigning for Treaty, Truth yada, yada, but she’s also already organising her family and radical Indigenous Activists (same same), to take the places put aside in Victoria for the Voice to Parliament.
“Do you ever attempt to validate your opinion before the opinion is voiced?”
Well I can’t find the source that claimed google looked at this idea (a shitfucktonne of low orbit satellites)and concluded quite rightly it is an awful awful, god awful idea, so I’ll withdraw for a moment that question re google without withdrawing the conclusion on morality.
I really hope china follows this lead, while I still think them doing it is a really really bad idea a nation has a lot more right to fuck up space than a private company.
Watching colliding low orbit satellites could be fantastic sport soon. A few space borne weapons though could probably clear some room for the chinese.
But yeah my bad re the claim google looked at this appalling idea and rejected it.
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 5:21 pm
No disrespect intended C@t, but your response really does exemplify the problem. Call them patients or residents, but a dementia patient in an aged care facility should never be considered as part of a provider-client relationship. They are people first and foremost, not clients. It’s still referred to as Aged Care for a reason. I have family members who have worked in aged care their whole lives. My mum was a registered nurse for the nursing home at the small bush nursing hospital near where my family lived in northern Victoria. I grew up understanding that aged care patients (especially dementia) are particularly vulnerable and require a significantly higher duty of care due to these vulnerabilities.
I think (from what I’ve read) that there is an element of the Treaty Now advocates who simply don’t recognise the Australian Parliament as a legitimate body and so don’t want to negotiate with it.
They do want to wind back history 250 years and negotiate a treaty directly with the British Crown (hence the occasional references to meeting with KC).
maaaate…
ItzaDream @ #1100 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 6:30 pm
Wrong. That was RoboDebt wasn’t it.
Sir Henry Parkes @ #1099 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 6:29 pm
Well, it certainly is for Labor.
WWP: “Wasn’t starlink a google project ”
Pi: “Do you ever attempt to validate your opinion before the opinion is voiced? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink ”
WWP: “Well I can’t find the source that claimed google”
That’s because it doesn’t exist. Which if you’d attempted to validate your opinion, you’d know. So…. no.
WWP: “Hey everyone, listen to my opinion about a subject that I only just learned about, and how it’s bad because muh musk.”
I’ve just caught you making more shit up. The appropriate course of action is to reflect on why you feel a burning desire to make shit up to support a narrative. It’s unhealthy brah. For the head. It makes people question whether there is any relevance to anything you say. Opinions are supposed to be formed AFTER you acquire information, not before.
SHP
You seem to be putting all the eggs in the one basket. I hope the Govt isn’t doing that.
As for a treaty process here’s some reading on the Vic model which I assume maybe somewhat adopted at a federal level
https://www.firstpeoplesrelations.vic.gov.au/treaty/
Oakeshott Country says:
Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 3:20 pm
Socrates
Don’t knock BMW EVs – great reviews and great to drive ( but agree why luxury vehicles for the public service)
—————————————————
In Germany in the first quarter of 2023, EV sales figures were as follows:
Tesla 20,665
VW 13,443
Audi 7637
Mercedes 7298
BMW 4334
If even Germans aren’t buying BMW EVs, I’m not sure why our government would choose them.
Pi @ #1055 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 4:19 pm
The failed test was successful because past launches have been successful? Might as well just say “SpaceX can’t ever fail” at this point.
Did not, again. Can’t call someone out on something they never did. 🙄
nath @ #1056 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 4:20 pm
You know you’d buy it if I charged $8/month for it. 😉
“I’ve just caught you making more shit up. The appropriate course of action is to reflect on why you feel a burning desire to make shit up to support a narrative. ”
I didn’t make it up, it came from somewhere I just can’t locate it immediately.
But look it is lovely talking to evangelists and I’ve loved every minute, can we jump to the agree to disagree bit, and look if you need to pray to Elon a bit have at it.
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 6:11 pm
Hearing the ICAC report into GladysB not feathering her boyfriend’s corrupt shooting range, is close to hitting the streets.
Predicting a poor corruption season for the Liberal Party at all levels…
_______________________
Take this prediction with an industrial size Bavarian dollop of salt. This is the same poster who announced the Ukrainian counter offensive had started in the last week of April.
ar: “SpaceX can’t ever fail”
Lay off the strawmans brah. They’re getting tiresome.
WWP: “I didn’t make it up, it came from somewhere I just can’t locate it”
Duuuuuude.
I suggested to a friend we do after work drinks on Crown St, maybe catch dinner, totally unaware there was a fire and major road closures in the city. Crown St was a nightmare, but after bailing on drinks because of the traffic and driving home, Elizabeth St out of the city was empty. Haven’t seen it like that since the severe lockdowns in 2021.
what morality is starlink violating? I can’t work that one out.
Hi William.
Did you get my email?
For what it’s worth, here is what Wikipedia has to say about police bean bag rounds:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bean_bag_round
“A bean bag round can severely injure or kill in a wide variety of ways. They have caused around one death a year since their introduction in the US. A round can hit the chest, break the ribs and send the broken ribs into the heart. A shot to the head can break the nose, crush the larynx or break the neck or skull of the subject.”
That of course would be if used on a healthy substantially younger individual I’m sure. But by all means, lets use them on 95 year old dementia patients.
Edit. Or you could just ask Johnny Knoxville:
https://youtu.be/2dqilJ3Z-4Q
Too funny seeing DeSantis’s campaign launch go up in flames. How many Team Ron people are touching up their CVs right now?
Lars, still waiting on your thoughts on Modi 2047 Vision.
If you don’t answer, I can only surmise you are full of shit regarding India.
I was wondering if I was being a bit unfair in linking that Sydney fire to a redevelopment motive?
Then funnily enough this was tweeted. 😀
The Voice is not Labor’s proposal, it is the call put out by Indigenous representatives through the Uluru statement. Albo has listened and is adopting it as government policy, but he has also called on the opposition and other political forces to follow. Unfortunately, conservative forces have rejected this.
What a marvelous thing a broad multi=partisan push for the voice would have been.
If the Voice is defeated, the government and the people will have little appetite to pursue a treaty, truth-telling and the other facets of reconciliation.
All those seeking reconciliation should remember that.
Linda Hurley serenades Palliative Care Week…
https://twitter.com/jsam_1967/status/1661641560193368064?s=12&t=RVN-09kkuVR8UsTJPsu6rQ
Is Boerwar still checking in here regularly? He doesn’t seem to have been around the last few times I have popped in for a look.
sprocket_ says:
Tuesday, May 16, 2023 at 9:35 am
I understand Joe Biden is making concessions to Congress to get the debt cap raised.
https://www.axios.com/2023/05/14/biden-debt-ceiling-talks-republican-leaders-tuesday
Also, he is only planned to go to Sydney – so no address to APH
___________________________________________________
On the day after this poster’s “revelation” about Biden not going to Canberra , it was announced Biden would go to Canberra – until the whole trip was then cancelled.
There are many more examples of this posters predictions and prophesy which turn out to be BS. There are elements of pure Walter Mitty here, the poster “being in the know”. Sad!
Sprocket, What have you got against Linda Hurley? Pretty harmless lady, sings ‘you are my sunshine’ etc. she’s not even fat.
Boerwar is taking a break of indeterminate duration.
Sprocket
I wonder if Mrs Hurley can do Monty Python’s “Always look on the bright side of life”?
nath, I just think it’s weird that the Governor General’s wife inflicts her out-of-tune dittys on those who are enjoying the vice regal largesse.
What would you think if Queen Camilla insisted on singing Gimme, Gimme, Gimme at the Coronation?
SHP
If the Voice referendum fails, that’s where a true leader who believes deeply in truth and treaty steps and actually leads, rather than just give up on the whole SftH. Then let voters have the final say on truth/treaty.
Best wishes to Bw.
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 7:33 pm
nath, I just think it’s weird that the Governor General’s wife inflicts her out-of-tune dittys on those who are enjoying the vice regal largesse.
_______________
That’s just her spin on the role. Singing and Positivity.
I think one selection criteria of a future spouse of an Australian elected as head of state, is the ability to sing in tune
Good on Mrs Hurley.
Today is about being serenaded by Tina…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmH4YlNdWAg
A little unfair Cronus, the plugin all EV range only became available in Q2 22.
Let’s look at the figures in 12 months
C@T 3:26pm
“ Actually, come to think about it, my son worked in an Aged Care facility for a while and the Dementia patients were locked in their rooms at night to prevent them wandering. The On Duty staff had keys so they could check on them ever hour or two.
Anyway, there will no doubt be a Coronial Inquiry now and hopefully some sensible recommendations will come from it which the government and the Police Force will adopt.
Hmm, how about having bean bag guns on hand in the paddy wagon for a start?”
—————————
C@T
Just so many options yet a senior constable chose the second most lethal one, simply unbelievable. What on earth was going through his mind?
I was at the FIL’s aged care come today in the dementia ward and was trying to run through a similar scenario in my own mind and the alternative options were just too numerous to mention.
I’ve seen two male dementia patients (unarmed) having push and shove altercations on a couple of occasions and each time a small female carer was able to defuse the situation. Two police officers should’ve been able to negotiate with, distract, dissuade or disarm a 95 yr old female (with knife) requiring the assistance of a walking frame. She must surely have been having difficulties even maintaining balance with only one arm holding the walker.
Just spent the last couple of hours listening to this utterly fascinating podcast.
Nate Hagens talking to Alex Gladstein, Chief Strategy Officer at the Human Rights Foundation.
Debt Colonialism, the Petrodollar and Bitcoin. Well worth the listen.
https://youtu.be/u84tyIokAY8
WB: “Boerwar is taking a break”
I hope he’s ok.
Apologies if this opinion piece by Speers was posted earlier today.
It captures the problems faced by Liberals such as Leeser who apparently believe in the ‘yes’ case and want to influence the discussion.
RP: “Alex Gladstein”
A genuine thinker in that space.
zoomster @ #1109 Thursday, May 25th, 2023 – 6:40 pm
Sovereignty was never ceded.
A treaty between the first nations leaders and the federal Crown Govt will bring the two cultures together to live together as Australians.
Russia has been laying row after row of concrete ‘dragon’s teeth’ as part of their defence lines.
The British Challenger tank, with Ukrainian trainees, has been practicing against them …
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1661670760459431937?s=12&t=RVN-09kkuVR8UsTJPsu6rQ
Duttons idea of unity is for first nations people to cede to the supreme Crown Govt and just cop it sweet.
So some are waking up to the reality that Albanese id not of the left? Wow! I have been on to him for years. He is a self declared neo liberal, who has openly stated that the country need s to look for ‘market solutions’ to it’s problems.
It’s snot hard to understand why the nominals love Albanese. They believe that it shows their ‘left’ credentials. Look we support Albanese, he’s of the left. Ha, ha, maybe he was twenty years ago, but no more.
GERMANY RECESSION
– Europe’s biggest economy in recession for first time since 2020.
– Data shows 0.3% contraction in first quarter of 2023, with 0.5% drop in previous quarter.
– Economy hit by high inflation, smaller household consumption and lower government spending.
William, just out of idle curiosity, how do you get back on after being given a non voluntary break from the board?
You can ask, I suppose.