Recent developments of note, none more so than a new federal by-election hot on the heels of the boilover result in Aston on April 1:
• The second federal by-election of the parliamentary term looms, not as anticipated in Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook (at least, not yet), but in the Gold Coast seat of Fadden, where Liberal-aligned Liberal National Party member Stuart Robert is calling it a day. Robert held the seat with a 10.6% margin at last year’s election after a 3.5% swing to Labor, making the seat a good deal safer than Aston with its 2.8% margin post-election and raising the question as to whether Labor will find making a contest of it worth its bother. Robert has held the seat since 2007 and became embroiled in the robodebt affair through his carriage of the human services portfolio, a distinction he coincidentally shared with the former member for Aston, Alan Tudge.
• On a related note, James Massola of the Age/Herald reported prior to Robert’s announcement that a “major British company in the defence sector” had sounded out Scott Morrison for a job opportunity, potentially resulting in a by-election in Cook as soon as July.
• The Australian reports John Howard has backed James Brown, chief executive of the Space Industry Association, former RSL president and veteran of Afghanistan and Iraq, to fill the New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy arising from the death of Jim Molan in January. The report also relates that Brown is factionally unaligned, former husband of Malcolm Turnbull’s daughter Daisy Turnbull, and an opponent of the Indigenous Voice. The other confirmed starters are former state government minister and unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and former state party president Maria Kovacic, but a number of other names have been mentioned as possibilities.
• The Australian had results of a YouGov poll on perceptions of the royal family, which found William and Catherine well ahead of the field with positive ratings in the mid-seventies, Charles up nine points since March 2021 on 52%, Harry down over the same period from 61% to 38% and Meghan down from 46% to 27%, with Andrew down seven from an already low base to 15%. Forty-three per cent of respondents professed themselves not at all interested in the coronation, with 24% a little bit interested, 19% fairly interested and 14% very interested.
Two matters at state level of note:
• As covered in the previous post, Tasmania held its annual Legislative Council elections yesterday in three of the chamber’s 15 seats, which gave Labor a rare spot of good news in the state with a resounding win for incumbent Sarah Lovell in the outer Hobart seat of Rumney. Lovell’s primary vote increased from 33.8% to 50.5% despite the fact that she faced a Liberal candidate this time and not last time (although more favourable boundaries may have helped). There were even more resounding wins for independent incumbents in the seats of Launceston and Murchison.
• Public suggestions have been published for the Western Australian state redistribution. Labor’s submission calls for the abolition of the regional seat of North West Central and the creation of a new seat in the metropolitan area, in line with ongoing population trends, proposing a rearrangement of the outer metropolitan area that would provide for new seats centred on the fast-growing urban centres of Ellenbrook and Byford. The Liberals would prefer that the commissioners stretch the elastic to maintain the status quo.
Dr John,
And still boring us with Liberal Joan Sutherland.
Now let’s hear from the economic giants Angus Taylor and Susssan Ley. Dutton deems to have vanished.
Where is Sarah Ferguson?
C@tmomma:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 7:52
[‘Mavis still trying to tell others on this blog what they can and can’t do, I see. What a bumptious individual he is.’]
I note you’re reverting to form following a very short hiatus
The depreciation rate for housing (build to rent) goes up from 2.5% to 4% – you still have to find the money to build and borrow at circa 8% interest.
The Government has also funded about 2bn extra in housing finance.
Not really going to make a difference sadly.
As long the work is properly compensated and regulated then it could be way better option then doing nothing on the dole.
Young Jimmy may have just assured his future Prime Ministership, with a budget and a budget presentation, at a level not attainable by a succession of disingenuity and dishonesty from and during the LNP years, the difference accentuated by transparency and integrity.
BK says:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 8:00 pm
Now let’s hear from the economic giants Angus Taylor and Susssan Ley. Dutton deems to have vanished.
—————–
With the screeching sound of NO
Each portfolio in Budget Paper 2 has a ‘reprioritisation’ line item
And the revenue and expenditure measures are a true modern Labor Budget
Would love to be in Josh’s meetings tomorrow when clients ask him about the budget surplus.
Mavis @ #976 Tuesday, May 9th, 2023 – 7:41 pm
Says Johnny come lately.
Nothing for HSR. Cud Chewer will be devastated.
Looks like overall a decent budget to me, I like the increase in bulk billing for GP appointments, wage growth forecast to be higher than inflation, 15% increase in rental assistance and energy bill relief and incentives for energy efficiency. I think the glaring miss here is the lack of help for those unemployed under 55, $40 p/f is not a sufficient increase and could have been improved with an additional take on the PRRT for example.
One laments the good old days of 2014 and Sloppy Joe. Such a visionary, worth every puff of his cigar.
BKsays:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 8:00 pm
“Now let’s hear from the economic giants Angus Taylor and Susssan Ley. Dutton deems to have vanished.
Is that what the “deeming rate” means ?”
Dr John:
You’ll get on though in my exericence cats tend to change their loyalties.
Tom,
Yes, how presumptuous.
As well as the $40 per fortnight increase to jobseeker, many will have an increase in rent assistance of about $20 per fortnight plus assistance with power bills of up to $20 per fortnight.
Andrew@6:20 pm
Thanks so much for this info. It is really useful for understanding the (fluid) dynamics of Coogee. It has been my local beach for half my life (the other half in the Blue Mountains). It is often regarded as the “safe” beach for kids, but I wonder how deserved this reputation is?
The blue groupers of Coogee are famous – when it was thought that a spear fisherman had caught the dominant male in 2022 there was almost a riot.
Also, I am not an ocean swimmer,
Mavis,
You are not immune from a valid criticism, nor should you be and a side swipe at me will not be able to make me feel cowed by you.
sprocket_ is a long standing, valued and serious contributor to this blog. Your attack on him was absolutely uncalled for and completely unjustified.
$159m for extra electoral office staff. Wow! Sally Rugg was right!
Increases to rent assistance and other payments are welcome. But there really is a need for long term structural reform. Rent Assistance of $20 a week will get eaten up and then some by landlords. I am not being critical of the increase but we all know the landlords will take whatever payment is made. There is only so much short term payments can do (and arguably not much at all given they are largely transferring from renter to landlord) but real long lasting rental reform is needed and that issue lies with the states.
Hopefully a coordinated Labor response across the states can happen to help renters.
Zoomster wrote, “over your “I’m a descendant of Edward III, I have royal blood’ boasts?*”
Nath is quite correct. It is estimated that about 98% of all people of British descent are descended from Edward III. for this reason he is described as the father of England. So it is no idle boast, but in context, not terribly significant either.
I’m disappointed that there wasn’t money provided to kick start a home grown manufacturing rejuvenation.
Well my keyword searches through the budget papers came up almost empty, and although the video hookup continues as these things tend to it must be time for wine and cigars
clem atlee
Yes – but I was the one who pointed this out to nath, who was boasting about his descent from EIII as if it was something special.
Thanks for backing me up.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 8:25 pm
I’m disappointed that there wasn’t money provided to kick start a home grown manufacturing rejuvenation.
______
That’s because Chalmers is smarter than you.
Rugg settled for $100k. But then Jim puts in $150 odd million. I thought Rugg was a big settlement. Clearly I was wrong.
Apparently, I’m descended from George IV via one of his mistresses, a certain Mrs Green.
A_E
Prob one of his brothers, who had a mistress of that name (Daphne du Maurier was one of her descendants).
Adam Randt disapproves.
+1 Labor.
AE wrote, “apparently, I’m descended from George IV via one of his mistresses, a certain Mrs Green.”
So your real name is Andrew Fitzroy or Andrew Fitzgeorge.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 8:28 pm
Apparently, I’m descended from George IV via one of his mistresses, a certain Mrs Green.
______________
Well that is fairly recent, unlike my ancient connection. I am descended from the Beauforts, and then through the Nevilles, then a middling Lancastrian knightly family that fell in significance from the 15th to the 18th century.
“ Nothing for HSR. Cud Chewer will be devastated.”
We can barely find enough workers to build the major projects already under way.
Absolutely the wrong time to start new major infrastructure spends. Any spare workers need to go into building more houses, not roads or rail.
I’d be happy if some road projects were “delayed” (permanently) and rail projects proceed in their place.
I’m descended from Irish potato farmers…
zoomster says:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 8:27 pm
clem atlee
Yes – but I was the one who pointed this out to nath, who was boasting about his descent from EIII as if it was something special.
Thanks for backing me up
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The British Monarchy are a very ordinary joke mob and nath’s don’t improve.
Nath wrote, “I am descended from the Beauforts.”
So you have something else in common with AE then. You are both descended from bastards.
As a renter who rents privately and who is on a fixed welfare income I can say that the increase in Rent Assistance will make a material difference to me because I have signed a contract for 12 months wrt the amount of rent I have to pay. This means that my landlord cannot put my rent up until the end of the contract.
I didn’t watch – did I miss anything?
will triple the bulk billing incentive
______________________________
If this was lib/nats federal government , they would have likely cut the bulk billing incentive
and bring something silly like a gp copayment of $ 220
Speers couldn’t find much to criticise and it showed in Chalmers interview.
Laura Tingle fair and complimentary, referring to the ending of “the sly sledging of welfare recipients”.
clem attlee says:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 8:33 pm
Nath wrote, “I am descended from the Beauforts.”
So you have something else in common with AE then. You are both descended from bastards.
______
Excuse me. The Beauforts were legitimized by the Pope at the Behest of another of my ancestors, John of Gaunt, Duke of Lancaster.
I’ve always liked the line about Marius – that he was his own distinguished ancestor.
Something to aspire to!
I’m descended from my parents…
That seems more “normal” than other options e.g. stork delivery services.
zoomster is no doubt a descendant of some cruel eastern european ruler, Ivan the Terrible probably.
Katherine Swynford was Gaunt’s mistress, the issue were born out of wedlock and they were bastards. Note that the retrospective legitimization was limited. The issue were not allowed to succeed to the throne. So the legitimization is if limited credibility. You know Gaunt trying to fix the status of his own children.
C@t
I reckon Dodgy landlords will be working as we speak to exploit the rent assistance increase. It’s what they do.
Lucky you have a long term lease.
Others may not be so lucky.
clem attlee says:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 8:37 pm
Katherine Swynford was Gaunt’s mistress, the issue were born out of wedlock and they were bastards. Note that the retrospective legitimization was limited. The issue were not allowed to succeed to the throne.
________
But they did. Henry VII.
It’s always very funny when nath gets miffed.