Recent developments of note, none more so than a new federal by-election hot on the heels of the boilover result in Aston on April 1:
• The second federal by-election of the parliamentary term looms, not as anticipated in Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook (at least, not yet), but in the Gold Coast seat of Fadden, where Liberal-aligned Liberal National Party member Stuart Robert is calling it a day. Robert held the seat with a 10.6% margin at last year’s election after a 3.5% swing to Labor, making the seat a good deal safer than Aston with its 2.8% margin post-election and raising the question as to whether Labor will find making a contest of it worth its bother. Robert has held the seat since 2007 and became embroiled in the robodebt affair through his carriage of the human services portfolio, a distinction he coincidentally shared with the former member for Aston, Alan Tudge.
• On a related note, James Massola of the Age/Herald reported prior to Robert’s announcement that a “major British company in the defence sector” had sounded out Scott Morrison for a job opportunity, potentially resulting in a by-election in Cook as soon as July.
• The Australian reports John Howard has backed James Brown, chief executive of the Space Industry Association, former RSL president and veteran of Afghanistan and Iraq, to fill the New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy arising from the death of Jim Molan in January. The report also relates that Brown is factionally unaligned, former husband of Malcolm Turnbull’s daughter Daisy Turnbull, and an opponent of the Indigenous Voice. The other confirmed starters are former state government minister and unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and former state party president Maria Kovacic, but a number of other names have been mentioned as possibilities.
• The Australian had results of a YouGov poll on perceptions of the royal family, which found William and Catherine well ahead of the field with positive ratings in the mid-seventies, Charles up nine points since March 2021 on 52%, Harry down over the same period from 61% to 38% and Meghan down from 46% to 27%, with Andrew down seven from an already low base to 15%. Forty-three per cent of respondents professed themselves not at all interested in the coronation, with 24% a little bit interested, 19% fairly interested and 14% very interested.
Two matters at state level of note:
• As covered in the previous post, Tasmania held its annual Legislative Council elections yesterday in three of the chamber’s 15 seats, which gave Labor a rare spot of good news in the state with a resounding win for incumbent Sarah Lovell in the outer Hobart seat of Rumney. Lovell’s primary vote increased from 33.8% to 50.5% despite the fact that she faced a Liberal candidate this time and not last time (although more favourable boundaries may have helped). There were even more resounding wins for independent incumbents in the seats of Launceston and Murchison.
• Public suggestions have been published for the Western Australian state redistribution. Labor’s submission calls for the abolition of the regional seat of North West Central and the creation of a new seat in the metropolitan area, in line with ongoing population trends, proposing a rearrangement of the outer metropolitan area that would provide for new seats centred on the fast-growing urban centres of Ellenbrook and Byford. The Liberals would prefer that the commissioners stretch the elastic to maintain the status quo.
1,195 comments on “Miscellany: Fadden by-election, royal family opinion poll and more (open thread)”
This is a quintessential centre-right to right-wing budget, in keeping with the ethos of the current Australian Labor Party.
The only “good” thing about it is that had the other major party been in power, their version would be even worse.
Fuck off Arky. It must be time for your bed. Up early to tune into 2GB and some more hate radio.
The left right divide is not always instructive, but it can be. Usually by using examples.
How is this a right wing budget, in say comparison to Toned Abs’ first one?
Had no idea that pouring money into medicare, renewables, childcare, age care, reducing energy costs is right wing, but ok sure.
“ If he was enfeoffed, I doubt Metcalfe was an archer, more likely a man at arms, perhaps a squire to lord Scrope of Bolton.. No Beaufort would have been an archer, as they were from the knightly class.”
Squire, but the acknowledged head of the clan: there were over 100 Metcalfe Archers who fought at Agincourt. James personally led 25 of them as a captain.
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 10:16 pm
[‘And how lucky we are to have C@tmomma!’]
That would be a matter for you. I do note however that you, at least impliedly, threatened nath via connections – piss poor! Please don’t come on this valuable site with such shit!
@Asha: “Looks like a pretty solid package all up. Could and should go further, certainly, and I’m still unconvinced of the wisdom of posting a surplus in the present economic climate, but overall a definite move in the right direction. If the Coalition were hoping to make any gains on the back of this budget, I think they are going to be pretty disappointed.”
Yeah I agree with this, but about that surplus:
The wisdom of a surplus in this situation besides the obvious political filip is that in theory it means taking more money out of the economy and thus lower inflation and thus lower cost of living all round (lower costs is as good as money in your pocket, but deflationary not inflationary, but try explaining that to Greens people who appear to understand nothing but a big wad of cash in hand).
Over the past couple of decades with low inflation, striving for a surplus has rarely made sense. This is the year when it actually does.
If something is going to be done about s3, it was never going to be this year. And with the inflation issue, it was also never the budget for massive cash handouts instead of targeting cost of living expenses like energy and Medicare. There has nonetheless been a real increase in Jobseeker, Ausstudy etc and Gillard’s Folly with the single parent payment has been reversed, yay.
The yellers who would have found something to complain about no matter what, have. But I think this will be pretty well received out there in voterland.
A good budget. Very pleased.
Stop being so Sydney, Earlwood, we don’t get 2GB or hate radio down here, that’s a Sydney thing.
Just accept you got stung being a heartless shit towards a family who had to face their little girl being kidnapped, and move on with your life rather than lashing out at me about it.
What about applying to Tom Gleeson for a purely PB poster contingent on Hard Quiz?
Presents as a brass mug top rater not to mention ABC charter political balanced.
AE. Then he would have most probably would have been a man at arms. Some archers, such as Sir John Hawkwood and Sir Robert Knolles did manage to rise through the ranks as archers to become knights and to earn fiefs, but this was very rare.
How much inflation. .00000001% and 10% are adding to inflation.
Those numbers matter or at least an understanding of what they are.
You are in good company, Chris Richardson was saying that on 7:30 tonight, but what that inflationary number is important (or at least a forecast on it).
And then what the 4 billion surplus would do to that inflation number if it was spent giving relief to the poor.
An easy one, what was the consumer spending in Australia last year. What is the increase to Jobseeker and Rent Assitance from this budget adding to that, plus what the forecast growth is for this year?
“ Just accept you got stung being a heartless shit towards a family who had to face their little girl being kidnapped, and move on with your life rather than lashing out at me about it.”
Fool: you have confused my derision for the cynical exercise in hate-race baiting media with an assumed contempt for the family. Which does not exist on my behalf. So once again, with feeling: fuck off.
TM: “Would be better off on the dole.”
By your understanding, doesn’t that make you a labor voter?
I agree with Arky re Terrence Kelly. The poor man had an utterly horrific upbringing and suffers from serious mental health issues. He is entitled to appeal, and may well have legitimate grounds for a reduced sentence (obligatory IANAL goes here), but let’s not downplay the trauma that both Cleo and her parents would have suffered. It must have been a nightmarish ordeal, particularly with the intense media coverage and the way everyone and their dog (including a few pleasant folk here on Poll Bludger) automatically came to the assumption that the parents killed her. I wonder how many death threats they received from brave keyboard warriors during that time.
It’s a truly complicated and awful situation all around.
So…..who reckons Dutton’s Budget in Reply will be a true exemplar of the form?? 🙂 🙂 Whats teh theme going to be??
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 10:41 pm
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 10:16 pm
[‘And how lucky we are to have C@tmomma!’]
That would be a matter for you. I do note however that you, at least impiedly, threatened nath via connections – piss poor! Please don’t come on this valuable site with such shit!
You are the shit.
Previously my family home was robbed by a dangerous organized crime gang.
nath on a number of occasions has mocked me on PB in relation to our home robbery especially in laughing when enjoying wine purchased with robbery proceeds with then well known Graham Munster Kinniburgh one of the crims whilst dining at Melbourne Flower Drum restaurant.
Clem: James was a Captain of the men that Bolton took with him to France. Many of whom were men at arms, but others were archers.
My understanding of my family’s history is that the Metcalfes who fought at Agincourt were archers. The historical records of who fought for whom in the war of the roses in the second half of the 15th century indicate that for at least many of the Metcalfes they had become men at arms or even knights by then.
After being politically rehabilitated for fighting on the losing side after Bosworth Fields, the head of the family were ennobled under the Tudors, only to loose the titles – and money – due to gambling and hell fire club proclivities in the 17th century.
At which point my ancestor moved over the border (just) into Lancashire and took up farming, but the next few generations went down pit mining (probably handling the horses and mules that were kept on the family allotment: I have copies of some family photos which date from the mid 19th century which shows the farm and the mine animals). Until my grandad came ‘up from pit’ and marched off to Gallipoli with the Lancashire regiments. After being wounded – shrapnel – after 6 months stuck on the toe of Gallipoli, he eventually ended up with the camel corp in Palestine before migrating to South Australia after the war where he looked after Glenelg council’s draft horses on a council allotment. Before being laid off in the Depression.
The Spud is going to expand on the Good Job Jamland from his interview on 7:30 tonight.
“Get people jerbs” and welfare is wasted on those who don’t work*
And then do a bit of “adding to inflation” without being challenged on what those numbers might actually be.
*Obviously knowing every single small/medium/large business would go bananas cos of what they would have to pay in wages if unemployment was zero percent.
“ I agree with Arky re Terrence Kelly”
Of course you do. Earth worms have more intelligence.
Suggestions for the Dutton budget reply:
Newstart and Youth Allowance to be paid 40% in the form of Woolworths vouchers which are valid for home brand and generic items only (will be marked with a blue dot).
The ABC lists among the winners in the Budget …. Ukraine!
“Another $200 million will be spent over two years on additional support for Ukraine in the ongoing war with Russia.
The funding will go towards additional Bushmaster vehicles, drones, artillery ammunition and training for Ukrainian soldiers.”
Thank you, Treasurer Chalmers and Prime Minister Albanese! The ammunition especially will be much appreciated.
AE said:”Cloe is back safe in the arms of her family. None the worst for her ordeal by the looks of things. What difference does it make to them if yet another deprived young black man spend the rest of what should be the best years of his life in jail. Assuming he doesn’t end up dead on the inside.
Spare me indeed.”
Sure looked to me like your derision was aimed at least partly at the family there, and downplaying what Cleo suffered along the way because that’s your take no prisoners style – too caught up in defending Terence Kelly and attacking the media to realise you were also downplaying the kidnapping of a little girl and the impact on her and her family.
Maybe learn from it instead of just calling everyone earthworms for the crime of pointing out your own words back to you.
it is heartbreaking, the double standard the racism the support for apartheid is sickening.
I know you have told it before Dr John but that truly is a horrible story to have that happen to you. And especially as you know who did it and where they were eating and living it up.
How do Bludgers feel about the increase in unemployment payments for those over 55 only?
I welcome the increase but to limit it to an age bracket is poor form.
Also apologies, I’ve been busy getting my part of a budget briefing finished and approved and distributed to those who get the very generous share packages sadly I do not, but there was a question about whether or not the Govt can attract good public servants.
Of course it can, it just needs to make its own rules and provide incentives, rather than be forced into the box that the right wing has created where the Govt is not allowed to do anything it is good at, or provide any advantage that corporations couldn’t, but then isn’t allowed to do most of the things corporations do to attract and retain talent. The the Govt isn’t allowed to do anything it has a natural advantage in, and isn’t allowed to do things to make it competitive is one of the worst cons of the whole trickle down paradigm we are all stick very much stuck inside.
That’s not what was announced in the budget.
“The JobSeeker rate will permanently increase for all recipients by $40 a fortnight.
That increase falls short of recommendations by unions, business and social services experts made through the Economic Inequality taskforce, that the JobSeeker rate be raised to 90 per cent of the aged pension.
But the higher rate for older people, which previously applied to recipients over 60 who had received JobSeeker for 9 months or longer, will now apply for recipients over 55.
It means people aged 55 to 59 will receive an additional $92.10 per fortnight above what they receive today.
Austudy and Youth Allowance payments will also be lifted by $40 a fortnight, overall benefiting $1.1 million people receiving income support.”
“Newstart and Youth Allowance to be paid 40% in the form of Woolworths vouchers which are valid for home brand and generic items only (will be marked with a blue dot).”
Who are you? Milton Friedman!?
@MelbourneMammoth: “Suggestions for the Dutton budget reply:
Newstart and Youth Allowance to be paid 40% in the form of Woolworths vouchers which are valid for home brand and generic items only (will be marked with a blue dot).”
This is genius.
Also the only bread it would be valid for would be white bread. And, after a special request from Peta Credlin, pumpernickel.
Not sure, but he’ll probably manage to work a sexual assault reference into it somewhere.
Really affected my family for years and I could have been physically ‘taken out’ as I arrived home not long after the crime gang departed after being in our environs for 2 days.
Thanka Sigil. Apologies, for my poor expression. I should have been referring to the age bonus which has now been extended to over 55 as you rightfully point out. Again, I really do not feel comfortable with this arbitrary age limit for extra or bonus payments associated with something as fundamental as unemployment benefits. It does not sit right with me. I am curious about others views.
Very interesting AE.
I agree with you that it shouldn’t be associated by age and the rate should be lifted for all.
That being said, there is a bunch of data that suggests it’s much harder for that cohort to find a job (especially women) and they are likely to be unemployed for longer.
I would still prefer people (if not all) to get some sort of extra benefit that can help them out, and as I posted all unemployed are getting some sort of lift in payments, while we can argue about it online thousands of people will do better from it.
I am with you tho.
When was the last time a government focussed on groups of people in a budget that are likely to always vote for them, or vote against them in way that wouldn’t hurt their political chances in a major way (i.e the Greens)?
I haven’t really paid attention to budgets prior to the last 10 years but in that time none . Would assume during the Howard years they were able to spend on alot of things but without necessarily hurting anyone majorly.
This budget certainly isn’t a reforming one but it does provide some support to those who need it, especially single parents and their kids. Jobseeker/YA/Austudy payments are not fairly addressed but the govt obviously wants to prioritise vulnerable families even though it’s not an either/or choice but it’s likely to play well politically. Labor probably correctly assumes that any annoyed govt payment recipients may defect and vote Greens but they’ve offered enough that the votes will flow back to them anyway. All of the above would be usual Labor or Greens voters – the budget doesn’t offer much to people on medium or high incomes but people weren’t expecting it or thinking it’s even necessary or desirable.
Labor really needs to find some way to scrap s3 tax cuts, they should never have agreed to it and they would be mad to enact them.
The greens are a broken record stuck on the shitiest part of the song.
^^I don’t think so, as people struggle more the left wing populist tune of Bandt will sound more appealing to more voters.
When there is nothing for you to conserve, or you don’t feel part of the “middle Australia” that Labor talks about, why not roll the dice.*
*That’s before having to live with Climate Change.
Read up about the Asian heat wave. It’s upon us. We’re so fucked.
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 9:56 pm
“Not one extra cent coming my way.
I don’t qualify for anything.
Would be better off on the dole.”
The comment of the budget night !
Absolutely clearly the gold medal !
Leyzy Susssan as LOTO.
Each day, Leyzy looks across the parliamentary chamber and wonders, I could be one of them.
She admires the numbers of ALP women members, their intellectual prowess, the Ministers who are up with their portfolio briefs and wonders, I could be one of them.
Then Leyzy Susssan is struck with reality and goes back to sniping across the House, continuously interjecting and displaying the lack of intellect, insight, and the lack of quality which defines her world.
Leyzy realises, I can’t be one of them.
Her first utterance in Question Time, yesterday, was predictable and scored high on the Liberal Question Time Bingo Card.
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 11:30 pm
So…..who reckons Dutton’s Budget in Reply will be a true exemplar of the form?? Whats teh theme going to be??
Not sure, but he’ll probably manage to work a sexual assault reference into it somewhere
I have a strong feeling that he will include “a sexual assault reference ” in his budget reply.