Miscellany: Fadden by-election, royal family opinion poll and more (open thread)

Stuart Robert calls time on his 16 year parliamentary career, initiating a by-election in a seat the Coalition should find a little harder to lose than Aston.

Recent developments of note, none more so than a new federal by-election hot on the heels of the boilover result in Aston on April 1:

• The second federal by-election of the parliamentary term looms, not as anticipated in Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook (at least, not yet), but in the Gold Coast seat of Fadden, where Liberal-aligned Liberal National Party member Stuart Robert is calling it a day. Robert held the seat with a 10.6% margin at last year’s election after a 3.5% swing to Labor, making the seat a good deal safer than Aston with its 2.8% margin post-election and raising the question as to whether Labor will find making a contest of it worth its bother. Robert has held the seat since 2007 and became embroiled in the robodebt affair through his carriage of the human services portfolio, a distinction he coincidentally shared with the former member for Aston, Alan Tudge.

• On a related note, James Massola of the Age/Herald reported prior to Robert’s announcement that a “major British company in the defence sector” had sounded out Scott Morrison for a job opportunity, potentially resulting in a by-election in Cook as soon as July.

• The Australian reports John Howard has backed James Brown, chief executive of the Space Industry Association, former RSL president and veteran of Afghanistan and Iraq, to fill the New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy arising from the death of Jim Molan in January. The report also relates that Brown is factionally unaligned, former husband of Malcolm Turnbull’s daughter Daisy Turnbull, and an opponent of the Indigenous Voice. The other confirmed starters are former state government minister and unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and former state party president Maria Kovacic, but a number of other names have been mentioned as possibilities.

• The Australian had results of a YouGov poll on perceptions of the royal family, which found William and Catherine well ahead of the field with positive ratings in the mid-seventies, Charles up nine points since March 2021 on 52%, Harry down over the same period from 61% to 38% and Meghan down from 46% to 27%, with Andrew down seven from an already low base to 15%. Forty-three per cent of respondents professed themselves not at all interested in the coronation, with 24% a little bit interested, 19% fairly interested and 14% very interested.

Two matters at state level of note:

• As covered in the previous post, Tasmania held its annual Legislative Council elections yesterday in three of the chamber’s 15 seats, which gave Labor a rare spot of good news in the state with a resounding win for incumbent Sarah Lovell in the outer Hobart seat of Rumney. Lovell’s primary vote increased from 33.8% to 50.5% despite the fact that she faced a Liberal candidate this time and not last time (although more favourable boundaries may have helped). There were even more resounding wins for independent incumbents in the seats of Launceston and Murchison.

• Public suggestions have been published for the Western Australian state redistribution. Labor’s submission calls for the abolition of the regional seat of North West Central and the creation of a new seat in the metropolitan area, in line with ongoing population trends, proposing a rearrangement of the outer metropolitan area that would provide for new seats centred on the fast-growing urban centres of Ellenbrook and Byford. The Liberals would prefer that the commissioners stretch the elastic to maintain the status quo.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,195 comments on “Miscellany: Fadden by-election, royal family opinion poll and more (open thread)”

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  2. On geneaology:

    ‘You are of royal descent, because everyone is….’

    ‘If you want to spend your cash on someone in a white coat telling you that you’re from a tribe of wandering Germanic topless warriors, or descended from Vikings, Saracens, Saxons, or Drogo of Metz, or even the Great Emperor Charlemagne, help yourself. I, or hundreds of geneticists around the world, will shrug and do it for free: You are.’

    https://nautil.us/youre-descended-from-royalty-and-so-is-everybody-else-236939/

  3. Tony Abbott at the Voice inquiry seems to have had a positive outcome.

    The muscular, top-down, pro-policing, welfare-withholding approach he advocates is precisely what the Voice seeks to replace, and Abbott’s appearance did us all the favour of crystallising the choice Australians face when they vote in the referendum later this year. Do we want Canberra-imposed responses to Aboriginal disadvantage or ones that come from the community? Who do we trust to deliver progress?

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/tony-abbott-is-back-for-another-no-campaign-it-s-like-2013-all-over-again-20230504-p5d5lk.html

    An excellent question.

  4. Don’t know if I can bring myself to watch ‘well done’ Angus on insiders this morning, my bullshit quotient is already full for the weekend……

  7. “The second federal by-election of the parliamentary term looms, not as anticipated in Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook (at least, not yet), but in the Gold Coast seat of Fadden, where Liberal-aligned Liberal National Party member Stuart Robert is calling it a day. ” – WB

    Those tests just keep on coming for Mr Dutton.

  8. After the Voice referendum the next vote the country should take is to become a republic. It’s way past time we moved on from the anachronistic monarchy that has absolutely no meaning or relevance in contemporary Australia.

  9. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Sorry folk, but I simply slept in too much to have the time to pull the patrol together.
    I had an emotionally draining day with the local footy team having its first win on home soil for five years.
    Anyway, it’s Sparse Sunday with the news overloaded with coronation trivialities.

  10. Cronus:

    Yes indeed, let’s claw back some of those super profits for us rather than profits going overseas.

    Treasurer Jim Chalmers will raise an extra $2.4 billion in taxes over four years from offshore gas companies and use the money to fund services and cost-of-living relief including help with energy bills.

    Chalmers will on Sunday announce changes to the nation’s fossil fuel super tax, capping the amount of income from liquefied natural gas projects that can be offset at 90 per cent.

    The LNG industry is forecast to hit $91 billion in export earnings this financial year – three times more than in 2020-21 – on the back of a ban on Russian energy exports following its invasion of Ukraine.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/budget-will-grab-2-4-billion-from-lng-super-profits-20230506-p5d689.html

  11. BK:

    There isn’t much to report anyway. As you say the coronation trivialities are dominating the news this morning.

  12. BK says:
    Sunday, May 7, 2023 at 7:48 am
    Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Sorry folk, but I simply slept in too much to have the time to pull the patrol together.
    I had an emotionally draining day with the local footy team having its first win on home soil for five years.
    Anyway, it’s Sparse Sunday with the news overloaded with coronation trivialities.
    ———————-

    BK
    Congrats to the team and supporters for their dedication.

  13. Going on the general commentary about Charlie & Camilla’s do, the Spencers seem to’ve had their day.
    As bona fide British Aristocracy I suppose one of them got slotted in somewhere, but I’ve seen no mention of it.

  14. Confessionssays:
    Sunday, May 7, 2023 at 7:48 am
    After the Voice referendum the next vote the country should take is to become a republic. It’s way past time we moved on from the anachronistic monarchy that has absolutely no meaning or relevance in contemporary Australia.

    gollsays:
    Sunday, May 7, 2023 at 3:37 am
    Nobody does dress-ups like the British, and including all the old people in dress-ups is nice.

    Australian old people just clutter the roads with camper vans and wear thongs.

    The Americans would call the old/new King and Queen the “homecoming King and Queen”.

    The Coronation certainly made good use of all the old curtains sitting in boxes in the quaint British garden sheds and the question has to be asked,
    “Is the cotton wool used in the costumes real cotton or some non-recyclable stuff” ?

    What an absolutely amazing day for the poms.

  16. This says everything that needs to be said I think:

    A monarch is a strange thing: a vessel, an intercessor, a sacrifice, a tax haven, a person wearing fancy dress more than is healthy, a coin, a stamp. But not all who inherit the position are suited to it. We know a lot about Charles III from the interviews he gave while he waited for the throne, and what we know is troubling. He is sensitive — vulnerable even. Can he survive the next season of “The Crown,” let alone reality?

    By the time he is handed the orb and scepter this weekend, it will be too late; now is the time to consider possible last-minute swaps. This is a system based on a genetic lottery, after all. So why should it be this Charles, when there are so many others who might be more prepared to assume the burden?

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/05/05/opinion/king-charles-coronation.html

  17. The coronation outfits didn’t look like they’d been updated since the Middle Ages. Watching grabs of last night’s ceremony on TikTok this morning, the whole scene looked like a Robin Hood reenactment than anything resembling modern society. I half expected Kevin Costner to come charging into the Abbey with his bow and arrow.

  18. UK Cartoons:
    “Yes, Sir. We’ve been getting quite a few enquiries about how long your street party is going to last” #Coronation

    Andy Davey on #CharlesIII #Coronation

    Ben Chilton on #notlongtoreignoverus #CharlesIII #Coronation #Democracy #NotMyKing

    Chris Riddell on local elections: the end is nigh for the Conservatives

    Kal on #Coronation #Trump

    Matt on #Coronation #NHS

    Peter Schrank: There are no more ceremonial monarchies in Europe, but many Europeans are fascinated by, and interested in, the UK Monarchy. #KingCharles #Coronation #KingCharlesIII #Eurovision2023

    Martyn Turner: That’s a 145 inch tv in the window. We will all have one next year…. #CharlesIII #Coronation #CostOfLivingCrisis

    David Low got into so much trouble for criticising the cost of the #Coronation in 1953 that a few days later he drew a cartoon of himself locked up in the Tower of London.

    The view from NZ:
    Rod Emmerson on #CharlesIII #JustinWelby #Coronation #Democracy #NotMyKing

  19. BK:
    Agreed…No news is good news in this instance.
    A friend from Liverpool UK messaged me with this.
    “The Liverpool fans all booed the national anthem at the game last night as the fan club pointed out there are food distribution centres all over Liverpool because people don’t have enough to eat while the scaled back coronation only cost some AU $200 million.It’s PRETTY OBSCENE.THEY ARE PIGS.

  21. The Coronation, from the point of view of the longevity of the family business, was as expected.
    The casting for the pantomime was awkward at best, with the lead having such prominent ears and a dreadful haircut while his co-star definitely had the look of someone in need of a top-up and “a quick ciggie”, (as mentioned everywhere).
    Everyone loves it when “the kiddies” dress up and put on a show.
    Nobody would be “caught dead” wearing those drapes in Australia at either the footy or playing the pokies and certainly not burr cutting in the outback.

  22. The things you learn on PB!

    Charlemagne …. capitalized on his father’s good political relations with the Vatican, and in 800 was crowned the first Holy Roman Emperor by Pope Leo III in St Peter’s Basilica, an event so momentous that Charlemagne marked it by giving Leo one of the great medieval relics as a thank you—the Holy Prepuce, better known as Jesus’ foreskin.

  24. There was a special detail in Jodie Haydon’s coronation outfit
    (BTW, Jodie Haydon is Albanese partner)

    https://www-vogue-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.vogue.com.au/culture/there-was-a-special-detail-in-jodie-haydons-coronation-outfit/image-gallery/8a589474528c2fa210d439e7322d48f9?amp=1&amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16834120259879&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.vogue.com.au%2Fculture%2Fthere-was-a-special-detail-in-jodie-haydons-coronation-outfit%2Fimage-gallery%2F8a589474528c2fa210d439e7322d48f9

    “Jodie Haydon, financial services executive partner of Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, has flown the flag for Australian design and craftsmanship at the coronation of King Charles. The couple arrived at Westminster Abbey hand in hand. Haydon opted for a fitted blue mid-length dress by Karen Gee, the Sydney-based label that works only with made-to-order pieces to minimise waste. She matched her dress with a pillbox style hat crafted in the Embellish Atelier in Rozelle, Sydney by Catherine Kelly which was made with Petersham ribbon, and a silk screen print ‘Yingarna’ made by Injalak women on West Arnhem Land. Haydon wasn’t the only Australian attendee to represent Australian design at the coronation. The honourable Julie Bishop, former Minister for Foreign Affairs and deputy leader of the Liberal Party, showcased her serious fashion credentials with a embellished floral cream two-piece set by Zimmermann, a look from the Australian powerhouse label’s autumn/winter ‘23/‘24 collection and customised for Bishop. It fits with Bishop’s affinity for fashion diplomacy, she often sports Australian designers at significant events. Bishop paired her look with a Dior bag and shoes, and finished the ensemble with a fascinator, custom-made by Australian milliner Nerida Winter, to match her dress. Speaking exclusively to Vogue Australia, Nerida Winter recalled, “I’ve known Julie for a long time and knowing the Australian aesthetic and putting her into that realm was really important to me in London. There’s nothing like the way Australians dress, they have such a beautiful simplicity. Between Nicky [Zimmermann], Edwina [McCann, publisher of Vogue Australia] and I, we were able to pare it back and really create a beautiful outfit [worthy] of the world stage.” Other Australians attending the coronation include musician Nick Cave and comedian and TV host Adam Hills. ”

    What I don’t understand is why and how Julie Bishop got invitation to the coronation?

  25. I find myself in the difficult to defend and oddly uncomfortable position of not exactly supporting the monarchy but am unable to support the current republican movement. Should we govern ourselves? Of course we should. The “if it aint broke” crowd do close one eye when it’s pointed out that in fact the king can sack our government (which the queen did half a century ago) with no recourse out than insurrection.

    But I am not comfortable with an elected president, or even an appointed one. Why do we need a head of state, cant the executive power reside in the parliament, what’s wrong with that model?

  27. I am a king that find thee; and I know
    ‘Tis not the balm, the sceptre, and the ball,
    The sword, the mace, the crown imperial,
    The intertissued robe of gold and pearl,
    The farced tide running fore the king,
    The throne he sits on, nor the tide of pomp
    That beats upon the high shore of this world-
    No, not all these, thrice gorgeous ceremony,
    Not all these, laid in bed majestical,
    Can sleep so soundly as the wretched slave
    Who, with a body fill’d and vacant mind,
    Gets him to rest, cramm’d with distressful bread;
    Never sees horrid night, the child of hell;
    But, like a lackey, from the rise to set
    Sweats in the eye of Pheebus, and all night
    Sleeps in Elysium; next day, after dawn,
    Doth rise and help Hyperion to his horse;
    And follows so the ever-running year
    With profitable labour, to his grave.

    ― William Shakespeare, Henry V

  29. BSA Bob @ #13 Sunday, May 7th, 2023 – 7:55 am

    Going on the general commentary about Charlie & Camilla’s do, the Spencers seem to’ve had their day.
    As bona fide British Aristocracy I suppose one of them got slotted in somewhere, but I’ve seen no mention of it.

    Yes the Spencers were ‘killed off’ from this soap opera quite a few seasons ago despite bringing in good ratings. Didn’t get along with the lead actors, apparently.

  31. C@T

    “ $2.4 Billion over 4 years isn’t near enough.”
    ————

    Agreed, but it’s something, and it sets a precedent.

  32. ”
    Rex Douglassays:
    Sunday, May 7, 2023 at 8:53 am
    BSA Bob @ #13 Sunday, May 7th, 2023 – 7:55 am

    Going on the general commentary about Charlie & Camilla’s do, the Spencers seem to’ve had their day.
    As bona fide British Aristocracy I suppose one of them got slotted in somewhere, but I’ve seen no mention of it.

    Yes the Spencers were ‘killed off’ from this soap opera quite a few seasons ago despite bringing in good ratings. Didn’t get along with the lead actors, apparently.
    ”

    And Prince Harry and Prince Andrew are”killed off” in this episode. “Didn’t get along with the lead actors, apparently.”

    The Duke and Duchess of Gloucester were given seat at the table. The is evidenced by the fourth and last carriage being pulled into the palace. Must be humiliating for Harry and Andrew.

    First carriage – King and Queen
    Second – Prince of Wales family
    Third – Dukeand Duchess of Edinburgh (aka Edward family)
    Fourth – Duke and Duchess of Gloucester.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Richard,_Duke_of_Gloucester

    Prince Richard, Duke of Gloucester, KG, GCVO, GCStJ, SSI, FRIBA (Richard Alexander Walter George; born 26 August 1944) is a member of the British royal family. He is the second son of Prince Henry, Duke of Gloucester, and Princess Alice, Duchess of Gloucester, and the youngest of the nine grandchildren of King George V and Queen Mary. He is currently 30th in the line of succession to the British throne, and the highest person on the list who is not a descendant of George VI, who was his uncle. At the time of his birth, he was 5th in line to the throne.

  33. Labor will cap deductions to collect $2.4bn more in petroleum resource rent tax over four years…

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/07/federal-budget-labor-petroleum-resource-rent-tax-prrt-wage-community-services-jim-chalmers-katy-gallagher

    The fossil fuel cartel taking the pi55.

    The $2.4bn over four years expected from Labor’s PRRT measure is less than alternatives proposed by the Grattan Institute and the Greens.

    The Grattan Institute estimates that changing the method of pricing for gas could raise up to $4bn a year and introducing a 10% commonwealth royalty on offshore gas a further $4bn.

    The Greens want the government to eliminate $284bn of accumulated credits that allow gas companies to reduce their tax liability.

    Forcing gas companies to start paying the tax from 1 July after new legislation and applying a 10% royalty to all offshore projects that are subject to the tax could raise $33.8bn over four years, according to Parliamentary Budget Office costings.

    A bit more like a proper plan while we transition away from fossil fuels.

  34. ”
    sprocket_says:
    Sunday, May 7, 2023 at 8:56 am
    Uneasy is the head that wears a crown…

    ”

    Nah! Another example of how West enabled Putin.

  35. Must be humiliating for Harry and Andrew.

    Mortifying for Andrew.

    Harry takes after his grandfather Philip. He’ll be fine.

  36. Sister Anne deserved the Emmy for yesterdays performance. She’s the boss.

    Camilla not so much.

    The Arch Bishop performed strongly, despite nearly breaking the King’s neck trying to straighten up the crown.

  37. Reading from the Chronicles (i.e. the last Open Tread on PB) I am led to conclude that I am descended from Royalty and (though reluctant to wield my Dog given powers) I give BK my Royal Dispensation to be off and make merry at the success of his chosen team of muddied oafs. Well done, good and faithful servant.

  39. Angus is determined to talk about inflation, and nothing else – trying to pin it on Labor.

    Quite the on message performance, Well Done Angus!

  41. Angus is arguing for Budget cuts, and the magic pudding of economic growth to ‘fix inflation’.

    Not really reading the room.

  44. Angus says 9 years of no surpluses should be overlooked.

    Instead, Labor must deliver surpluses for the next 4 years.

    Even Speers is gobsmacked.

  47. BK says:
    Sunday, May 7, 2023 at 9:29 am
    Why does Insiders persist with the crap that Taylor puts up?

    I think the event overnight sums it up…we showed during the pandemic that we as a nation, will do as we are told, we’ve been this way since the 18th century when our ‘betters’ tied to solve the property based crime by sending us to this outpost of the Empire. Those that bucked the system were hung or flogged into submission.
    Despite sensing that we are a larrikin people we still remain in awe of people secretly see as our betters. As ridiculous as An(g)us is, he has pretence toward aristocracy and their ABC just can’t bring themselves to be unkind to a good looking boy who went to Kings.
    Mind you, a few local matrons were aghast at the ABC having so many republicans on the ABC panel last night…so a chink of light?

  48. Morning all. Congratulations on the team win last night BK and I hope you enjoyed it.

    Having dodged the coronation last night, with some very enjoyable Barossa red consumed with friends, I saw this article in the Guardian this morning. Xanthippe says there are multiple relevant pictures on Mastodon.

    There were protestors on the coronation procession route (“not my king”). Their leaders were arrested early in the morning, with signs and megaphones confiscated, to ensure no contrary images confronted viewers. This whole event was as stage managed as any of Putin’s parades. One protestor carried a different sign saying “No Oil” and was arrested anyway.
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/may/06/not-my-king-they-chanted-then-the-police-took-their-megaphones

    A lot of the money for the event came from raiding the national lottery fund, which has recently been used to fund food banks around England.

    If Charles III intends to be a protector of his people, he is not off to a good start.

  49. Socrates:

    Arresting people taking part in what seemed a totally peaceful protest is just shocking. What a bunch of snowflakes the royals are!

    A lot of the money for the event came from raiding the national lottery fund, which has recently been used to fund food banks around England.

    Bloody hell. Hey, at least Britain isn’t going through a cost of living crisis right n- Oh.

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