Miscellany: Fadden by-election, royal family opinion poll and more (open thread)

Stuart Robert calls time on his 16 year parliamentary career, initiating a by-election in a seat the Coalition should find a little harder to lose than Aston.

Recent developments of note, none more so than a new federal by-election hot on the heels of the boilover result in Aston on April 1:

• The second federal by-election of the parliamentary term looms, not as anticipated in Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook (at least, not yet), but in the Gold Coast seat of Fadden, where Liberal-aligned Liberal National Party member Stuart Robert is calling it a day. Robert held the seat with a 10.6% margin at last year’s election after a 3.5% swing to Labor, making the seat a good deal safer than Aston with its 2.8% margin post-election and raising the question as to whether Labor will find making a contest of it worth its bother. Robert has held the seat since 2007 and became embroiled in the robodebt affair through his carriage of the human services portfolio, a distinction he coincidentally shared with the former member for Aston, Alan Tudge.

• On a related note, James Massola of the Age/Herald reported prior to Robert’s announcement that a “major British company in the defence sector” had sounded out Scott Morrison for a job opportunity, potentially resulting in a by-election in Cook as soon as July.

• The Australian reports John Howard has backed James Brown, chief executive of the Space Industry Association, former RSL president and veteran of Afghanistan and Iraq, to fill the New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy arising from the death of Jim Molan in January. The report also relates that Brown is factionally unaligned, former husband of Malcolm Turnbull’s daughter Daisy Turnbull, and an opponent of the Indigenous Voice. The other confirmed starters are former state government minister and unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and former state party president Maria Kovacic, but a number of other names have been mentioned as possibilities.

• The Australian had results of a YouGov poll on perceptions of the royal family, which found William and Catherine well ahead of the field with positive ratings in the mid-seventies, Charles up nine points since March 2021 on 52%, Harry down over the same period from 61% to 38% and Meghan down from 46% to 27%, with Andrew down seven from an already low base to 15%. Forty-three per cent of respondents professed themselves not at all interested in the coronation, with 24% a little bit interested, 19% fairly interested and 14% very interested.

Two matters at state level of note:

• As covered in the previous post, Tasmania held its annual Legislative Council elections yesterday in three of the chamber’s 15 seats, which gave Labor a rare spot of good news in the state with a resounding win for incumbent Sarah Lovell in the outer Hobart seat of Rumney. Lovell’s primary vote increased from 33.8% to 50.5% despite the fact that she faced a Liberal candidate this time and not last time (although more favourable boundaries may have helped). There were even more resounding wins for independent incumbents in the seats of Launceston and Murchison.

• Public suggestions have been published for the Western Australian state redistribution. Labor’s submission calls for the abolition of the regional seat of North West Central and the creation of a new seat in the metropolitan area, in line with ongoing population trends, proposing a rearrangement of the outer metropolitan area that would provide for new seats centred on the fast-growing urban centres of Ellenbrook and Byford. The Liberals would prefer that the commissioners stretch the elastic to maintain the status quo.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,195 comments on “Miscellany: Fadden by-election, royal family opinion poll and more (open thread)”

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  1. Nath @ 9.06pm,
    ” I am admittedly a savage. But it does sound nice!”

    Your transformation is almost complete.
    Very supportive of the efforts from Bill Shorten today.
    Humility tonight.
    Are you the Drover’s Dog ?

  2. “10000 extra Public Servants is way better than 10000 extra Consultants. Which is what the Coalition would prefer.”

    The corner of the public service I briefly passed through needed 10 really good people not 100 extra, but there is no way they will ever get the 10 really good people and 100 others will never make up for it.

  3. goll crossed the stream.

    Continuing:

    Possum Comitatus @Pollytics

    Of all the things worthy of complaint about the budget – from lethargical climate change action, a soft approach to taxing war profits, an almost indifference to dealing with poverty – and you whinge about a figure that everyone knows is fantasy, and which is materially zero.

  4. goll says:
    Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 9:15 pm

    Nath @ 9.06pm,
    ” I am admittedly a savage. But it does sound nice!”

    Your transformation is almost complete.
    Very supportive of the efforts from Bill Shorten today.
    Humility tonight.
    Are you the Drover’s Dog ?
    ______
    I was not supportive of the efforts of Bill Shorten.

  5. WeWantPaulsays:
    Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 9:16 pm
    “10000 extra Public Servants is way better than 10000 extra Consultants. Which is what the Coalition would prefer.”

    The corner of the public service I briefly passed through needed 10 really good people not 100 extra, but there is no way they will ever get the 10 really good people and 100 others will never make up for it.

    And how does the government get these 10 good people ? Or is this impossible?

  6. Not sure why LNP would be suggesting drovers dogs are not that smart. And that LNP are a rung below achieving what a drovers dog could.
    Bring back Baaanaby.

  7. I expect the 10,000 public servants will be paid out of reducing 5,000 consultants.

    What Taylor did remind us, inadvertently, was the supreme contempt the Coalition continues to have for people whose job it is to provide service to the public. This contempt fed both a $20 billion bill to outsourced consultants and, incidentally, Robodebt. It systematically bastardized public policy processes which were a key to delivering various policy disasters.

  8. ‘WeWantPaul says:
    Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 9:16 pm

    “10000 extra Public Servants is way better than 10000 extra Consultants. Which is what the Coalition would prefer.”

    The corner of the public service I briefly passed through needed 10 really good people not 100 extra, but there is no way they will ever get the 10 really good people and 100 others will never make up for it.’
    ———————————————-
    Uh huh. I was fortunate enough to work in areas where the public servants were mostly cracker jack.

  9. I expect the 10,000 public servants will be paid out of reducing 5,000 consultants.

    I assume the consultants weren’t bound by the APS Code of Conduct, so win-win?

  10. AE and nath,

    I would have been descended from one of the long bowman who saved the arses of both of your ancestors.

  11. Rossmcg:

    “ I think one of our legal people here ( AE perhaps) raised this in discussion of the Cleo Smith sentencing. A High Court precedent?

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/09/cleo-smith-kidnapper-appeals-13-year-sentence-arguing-judge-failed-to-give-weight-to-turbulent-upbringing”

    ______

    The WA Chief Judge applied the standard 25% discount to sentence on account of an early guilty plea (meaning that the maximum penalty – the “legislative guidepost” for the sentencing was reduced from 20 to 15 years) and yet, after “considering” all the evidence and having regard to all the purposes of sentencing still imposed a head sentence of 13 years, 6 months; and she only allowed for a parole period of two years. That’s just insane. I’m embarrassed for my profession when I read about cases like this one.

    How on earth, having regard to only the objective facts, a sentence in excess of 10 years was arrived – after the application of the 25% discount for the utilitarian value of an early plea – is quite beyond me. Having regard to the subjective case of the offender only a sentence substantially less than that would be a just outcome.

    Time for the High Court to put the stick about: R v. Bugmy, much?

    https://www.publicdefenders.nsw.gov.au/barbook

    Fracking sandgropers:even the British Colonial Office didn’t trust them with aboriginal people. It’s why they only got self government in 1890. Little has changed, it seems …

  12. The tone and substance of this budget is interesting.

    We can argue (and I would) that not enough has been done for people who are legitimately doing it hard. And whilst not enough, 40 bucks extra a fortnight and an increase on rent assistance is not nothing.

    Assistance over the worst time of the year for electricity costs is also a big plus.

    It’s promising that most of the focus so far is on those people, and something has been done.

    Politically as well even a small surplus gives it to those who have created the problems over decades and stick their “back in black” mugs up the you know what. So to me, whilst not an imperative, I understand why Labor did it.

    Medicare changes were good too.

  13. “ I would have been descended from one of the long bowman who saved the arses of both of your ancestors.”

    We WERE the longbow men you are talking about Clem.

  14. clem Attlee:

    Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 8:43 pm

    [‘Sorry Nath, Henry VII had a tiny claim to the throne. He was king by right of conquest, having defeated Richard III at Bosworth. I cannot remember, but I think that only the direct issue of Gaunt were banned from the succession, not their heirs. But anyway, nobody much took Henry Tudor’s claim seriously.’]

    For a purpoted Labor supporter, your knowledge of the monarchy surprises – perhaps conflitced by the coronation. I’ve got my doubts about your loyalties, as do I Paul.

  15. AE

    And I am ashamed of an industry I might have once have been happy to be associated with when they write shit like this

    “In what will come as a blow and a shock for Cleo’s family, The West Australian can reveal that Terence Kelly’s legal team have lodged an appeal against his lengthy jail sentence for the kidnapping.”

    Clickbait for the racists and rednecks.

    A blow and a shock to the parents? Spare me .

  16. And this:

    Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_en
    “The parade in Moscow didn’t have any modern tanks, infantry fighting vehicles or aviation. It was one of the smallest in Russian history, taking less than 10 minutes.

    There was one T-34 tank that took part in WWII. No Iskanders, Armata tanks, aviation. The walking part of the parade mainly consisted of cadets and students of military universities, not military staff.”

  17. Cloe is back safe in the arms of her family. None the worst for her ordeal by the looks of things. What difference does it make to them if yet another deprived young black man spend the rest of what should be the best years of his life in jail. Assuming he doesn’t end up dead on the inside.

    Spare me indeed.

  18. Putin looked quite uncomfortable as he watched the ‘Victory Day’ parade. Does he know in his heart of hearts that the jig is up?

    However, commentators keep saying that the war with Ukraine will last another year at least. Will the Russian people allow him to wage another year of trench warfare?

  19. Peter Hartcher:

    With this budget, Labor is making a grab to take the Holy Grail of Australian politics away from the Liberal Party.

    The Liberals’ most sacred treasure is its brand advantage as the party that better manages the nation’s finances. But today it is the Labor government of Anthony Albanese that is about to deliver a budget surplus.

    The Liberals had nine years in office and didn’t do it once. Labor will be able to claim a surplus in its second budget, achieved in a little over a year. It’s projected to be a surplus of $4.2 billion for the year ending on June 30.

    “The Holy Grail for Labor,” says the pollster for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, Jim Reed of Resolve Strategic, “is to recover the economic credibility they held in the Hawke-Keating years. A surplus budget with clear aims and priorities can be the first marker.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-liberals-had-nine-years-it-took-labor-just-one-to-snatch-the-holy-grail-20230504-p5d5ld.html

  24. @Pueo

    Greg is great.

    But getting the surplus was political, not economical.

    And given the morning shows and a bit of radio I’ve heard, it might have done it’s job.

  25. Taylormade:

    Not one extra cent coming my way.
    I don’t qualify for anything.
    Would be better off on the dole.

    I’ll go get my violin.

  27. Taylormade @ #1120 Tuesday, May 9th, 2023 – 9:56 pm

    Not one extra cent coming my way.
    I don’t qualify for anything.
    Would be better off on the dole.

    Lol Taylormade.

    You have demonstrated a logical inconsistency. You’re too well off to qualify for any assistance from the Budget … so you would be better off on the dole!?!

  28. Give the Dole a crack Taylor… go on.

    I don’t “get” anything either… but you know, it really depends what you think is more important. Isn’t it?

  29. Taylormade says:
    Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 9:56 pm
    Not one extra cent coming my way.
    I don’t qualify for anything.
    Would be better off on the dole.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Reads revealingly selfish

  31. “ Taylormade says:
    Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 9:56 pm
    Not one extra cent coming my way.
    I don’t qualify for anything.
    Would be better off on the dole.”

    ____

    You have quite made my night, Taylormerde.

    Coming out as the selfish, Howardesque ingrate we always knew that you were.

  32. C@tmomma:

    Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 8:52 pm

    [‘nath,

    You can be a little pissant sometimes’]

    And you can carry on far more than a little!

  33. Here’s a bit of Ross Gittin’s piece, so Taylormade won’t feel so butthurt:

    The best word for this budget is “complacent”. There’s nothing wrong with it; it’s keeping us from getting further into trouble. But it’s doing little to deal with the many troubles we already have: the transition to renewable energy, declining home ownership, the rental crisis, and problems with Medicare and education.

    And that’s before you get to the budget. All those problems will take money to fix but, as Treasurer Jim Chalmers insists, there’s little to spare. This year’s expected budget surplus is a one-off, with the prospect of government spending growing a lot faster than tax collections over the coming decade. The inescapable answer is that we need to pay more tax to cover our growing demands on the government. What’s the government doing about it? Not much.

    Rather, it’s insisting on pressing on with huge tax cuts in a year’s time, the lion’s share of which will go to high income-earners (like me) who’ve hardly felt the surging cost of living. This will take us in the wrong direction and help those who least need helping.

    This is the budget of a government that wants to be loved by everyone – the workers, the retired, people with huge superannuation, small business, big business, multinational miners, American generals, everybody.

    So, it’s doing as little as it can to annoy anyone, hoping to stay popular and win another term in office in 2025. Then it will be free of its foolish promise not to increase taxes and can start thinking about working on a few problems.

    Until then, it’s treading water. But it’s hard to believe a government that’s so anxious to avoid offending powerful interest groups in its first term will become a roaring lion in its second.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/chalmers-wanted-a-responsible-and-sustainable-budget-this-one-is-neither-20230504-p5d5kq.html

  35. Taylormade says:
    Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 9:56 pm

    Not one extra cent coming my way.
    I don’t qualify for anything.
    Would be better off on the dole.
    ______________

    Nevermind, S3 Tax Cuts are coming so you can wow us with your windfall when that comes around.

  37. So the liberal give us back in black mugs and no surplus and Labor saves the money on the mugs and gives us a surplus.

    It’s a pity the last liberal government double our national debt but there you are.

  38. C@tmomma says:
    Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 10:12 pm

    Here’s a bit of Ross Gittin’s piece, so Taylormade won’t feel so butthurt:

    __________________________

    I think Gittins should have prefaced that lot of tosh with “here’s an article I wrote earler”

  41. frednk says:
    Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 10:20 pm

    Cat you had better go and get a second violin for Ross.
    _________________

    As long as it is the worlds smallest violin

  43. Taylormade:

    Not one extra cent coming my way.
    I don’t qualify for anything.
    Would be better off on the dole.
    ______________________
    Not an extra cent coming my way either as per usual, but I am glad not one extra penny heads in the likes of his direction.

  44. Ross and Andrew – it’s one thing to take the view that Terence Kelly should get a lesser sentence and another to play down the seriousness of the crime or the feelings of Cleo Smith’s family or the harm done to Cleo Smith. It’s not “she seems OK, no harm no foul” Earlwood you asshole. Kelly’s background is a tragedy but it doesn’t make what he did OK or that the family have no right to be angry at him. It just highlights the job ahead to try and minimise how many more Terence Kellys we have in this country, basically given no chance at a good life from birth thanks to poverty, abuse and the demon grog.

  45. Is it too late to join in the tiny violin chorus for Taylormade?

    Someone call Ross Gittins and tell him we found someone besides Angus Taylor who didn’t get anything out of the budget and would be better off on the dole.

    Or maybe Taylormade IS Angus Taylor… it makes some sense. And we really would all be better off with him on the dole if so.

  46. Serious question….

    When was the last time a government focussed on groups of people in a budget that are likely to always vote for them, or vote against them in way that wouldn’t hurt their political chances in a major way (i.e the Greens)?

  47. Australia is already in a position where resources that can deliver renewable energy projects are stressed and Ross wants to pour more many into the sector? I think he should spend a little more time in the real world that has to deliver this stuff.

  48. Mavis wrote, “for a purpoted Labor supporter, your knowledge of the monarchy surprises – perhaps conflitced by the coronation. I’ve got my doubts about your loyalties, as do I Paul.”

    Ha, ha, my degree is in medieval history and specialization is the Hundred Years War, so I have a pretty good knowledge of the period and the personalities.

  49. If he was enfeoffed, I doubt Metcalfe was an archer, more likely a man at arms, perhaps a squire to lord Scrope of Bolton.. No Beaufort would have been an archer, as they were from the knightly class.

  50. sprocket_ @ Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 7:05 pm:

    “Enough already

    Do you know what кринџ means for example? It is a straight Cyrillic transliteration of cringe – but has come to mean a lot more in modern Slavic languages. Which the older people would not understand.”
    ===========

    Sprocket, in Denys Davydov’s latest video, he uses кринџ in the sense I think you are referring to: ‘embarrassingly bad’. From about the 11:45 mark. (I hope I pasted the link correctly from my phone.)

    https://youtu.be/OmWDgmHwJMA

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