Recent developments of note, none more so than a new federal by-election hot on the heels of the boilover result in Aston on April 1:
• The second federal by-election of the parliamentary term looms, not as anticipated in Scott Morrison’s seat of Cook (at least, not yet), but in the Gold Coast seat of Fadden, where Liberal-aligned Liberal National Party member Stuart Robert is calling it a day. Robert held the seat with a 10.6% margin at last year’s election after a 3.5% swing to Labor, making the seat a good deal safer than Aston with its 2.8% margin post-election and raising the question as to whether Labor will find making a contest of it worth its bother. Robert has held the seat since 2007 and became embroiled in the robodebt affair through his carriage of the human services portfolio, a distinction he coincidentally shared with the former member for Aston, Alan Tudge.
• On a related note, James Massola of the Age/Herald reported prior to Robert’s announcement that a “major British company in the defence sector” had sounded out Scott Morrison for a job opportunity, potentially resulting in a by-election in Cook as soon as July.
• The Australian reports John Howard has backed James Brown, chief executive of the Space Industry Association, former RSL president and veteran of Afghanistan and Iraq, to fill the New South Wales Liberal Senate vacancy arising from the death of Jim Molan in January. The report also relates that Brown is factionally unaligned, former husband of Malcolm Turnbull’s daughter Daisy Turnbull, and an opponent of the Indigenous Voice. The other confirmed starters are former state government minister and unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and former state party president Maria Kovacic, but a number of other names have been mentioned as possibilities.
• The Australian had results of a YouGov poll on perceptions of the royal family, which found William and Catherine well ahead of the field with positive ratings in the mid-seventies, Charles up nine points since March 2021 on 52%, Harry down over the same period from 61% to 38% and Meghan down from 46% to 27%, with Andrew down seven from an already low base to 15%. Forty-three per cent of respondents professed themselves not at all interested in the coronation, with 24% a little bit interested, 19% fairly interested and 14% very interested.
Two matters at state level of note:
• As covered in the previous post, Tasmania held its annual Legislative Council elections yesterday in three of the chamber’s 15 seats, which gave Labor a rare spot of good news in the state with a resounding win for incumbent Sarah Lovell in the outer Hobart seat of Rumney. Lovell’s primary vote increased from 33.8% to 50.5% despite the fact that she faced a Liberal candidate this time and not last time (although more favourable boundaries may have helped). There were even more resounding wins for independent incumbents in the seats of Launceston and Murchison.
• Public suggestions have been published for the Western Australian state redistribution. Labor’s submission calls for the abolition of the regional seat of North West Central and the creation of a new seat in the metropolitan area, in line with ongoing population trends, proposing a rearrangement of the outer metropolitan area that would provide for new seats centred on the fast-growing urban centres of Ellenbrook and Byford. The Liberals would prefer that the commissioners stretch the elastic to maintain the status quo.
Tom:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 8:06 pm
Mavis @ #976 Tuesday, May 9th, 2023 – 7:41 pm
sprocket_:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 7:29 pm
[‘1 minute to go..’]
[‘Please stop attempting to colour others’ opinions of those who post on this site – relatively, you’re a new kid on the block.’]
[‘Says Johnny come lately.’]
FFS, Tom – please check the archival evidence, dear cat, a mere kitten, & from memory, sprocket also. I don’t make things up. And it’s not that I’m attempting to big note myself. I retired 15 years ago, posting from time to time, at a time when WB was attempting to improve the quality of this site. I think he has.
But they did. Henry VII.
Sorry Nath, Henry VII had a tiny claim to the throne. He was king by right of conquest, having defeated Richard III at Bosworth. I cannot remember, but I think that only the direct issue of Gaunt were banned from the succession, not their heirs. But anyway, nobody much took Henry Tudor’s claim seriously.
Here comes Angus to ramble on about inflation and drovers dogs…
Taylor starts his interview with a bad faith lie. They simply cannot help themselves.
Looks like a pretty solid package all up. Could and should go further, certainly, and I’m still unconvinced of the wisdom of posting a surplus in the present economic climate, but overall a definite move in the right direction. If the Coalition were hoping to make any gains on the back of this budget, I think they are going to be pretty disappointed.
Angus Taylor is on now and it’s painful. I can’t stand it.
clem attlee says:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 8:43 pm
But they did. Henry VII.
Sorry Nath, Henry VII had a tiny claim to the throne. He was king by right of conquest, having defeated Richard III at Bosworth. I cannot remember, but I think that only the direct issue of Gaunt were banned from the succession, not their heirs. But anyway, nobody much took Henry Tudor’s claim seriously.
_______
Henry was the son of Lady Margaret Beaufort, daughter of the Duke of Somerset. Once the main Lancastrian line was eliminated, the Beaufort’s were the only choice for the Lancastrian side.
He may have been king by conquest perhaps, but the only way he was in a position to launch that conquest was because of his descent from the Beauforts.
I score ten out of ten for my two budget predictions: the Greens reckon it is not inflationary enough and the Coalition reckons it is too inflationary.
Angus, the 30 million dollar man.
Looks like Boer and Asha are on a unity ticket. How funny!
Q: I’m disappointed that there wasn’t money provided to kick start a home grown manufacturing rejuvenation.
That was announced a couple of months ago…..
As for the surplus, I am happy Labor produced this one just to shut the Liberals and their ‘better economic managers’ toadies up once and for all.
Taylor will oppose everything.
Ignore Taylor. Greg Jericho went through the inflation myth this afternoon. Increasing benefits to those on welfare is not inflationary. They are paying for essentials, not bidding up the price of houses.
These budget measures are very well targeted.
Now Taylor goes on about public servants. He omits recent news that the previous government was spending $20 billion per year on consultants!
Angus thinks that government running a “balanced” budget is less inflationary than a surplus budget! Genius!
Who was the last Liberal treasurer to deliver a surplus? The Hammock?
Have any cigars been sighted?
“ I am descended from the Beauforts, and then through the Nevilles, then a middling Lancastrian knightly family that fell in significance from the 15th to the 18th century.”
_____
As Clem so delicately noted I’m descended from one of priny’s by blow: but that was on my mum’s side of the family.
On my dad’s side, we are direct descendants from James Metcalfe. During 1415, Sir Richard, 3rd Lord Scrope of Bolton (b. 31 May 1394 – d. 29 Aug 1420), as indented to bring a fighting force to take part in the French campaign. James Metcalfe accompanied Sir Richard as captain at the battle of Agincourt. Before Sir Richard passed in the 1420 seige of Rouen, he enfeoffed Nappa to James Metcalfe. The Metcalfes would rule from Nappa for many generations.
James was knighted on the field at Agincourt by Henry V – the last such field knighting for over 500 years: until George V knighted Monash at Hamel.
The Metcalfes of Nappa were sworn to the Nevilles until the the Battle of Barnet; then directly to Richard, Duke of Gloucester. Perhaps my kin owed your kin fealty at some stage, nath …
Well that was a waste of 10 mins of everyone’s life.
Ugh Good Job Jamland now bumbling through an interview
“Everyone should have a job and then it’s great”.
A followup question for him that I wouldn’t mind hearing.
“What happens to the economy that your party has said needs unemployment if unemployment hits zero”.
Angus wont commit to supporting individual items but moans about 10000 extra public servants.
They were useless in government and now hopeless in opposition.
Angus Taylor is descended from King George III
The gap between Angus’ ears ia as dead as the main street of Yass since the highway bypass was finished.
“A drovers dog could…”
Can Angus stay shadow Treasurer forever? Please.
How many Australian’s under 40 would know what the F* he is saying?
They really should move their focus groups beyond PROBUS.
https://humanrights.gov.au/our-work/education/face-facts-cultural-diversity#:~:text=About%20cultural%20diversity%20in%20Australia,other%20than%20English%20at%20home.
One in four of Australia’s 22 million people were born overseas; 46 per cent have at least one parent who was born overseas; and nearly 20 per cent of Australians speak a language other than English at home.
Lars:
It happens. Sometimes I even find myself in agreement with you!
Also the comment that increases to job keeper “adds to inflation”
Q: How much, give us a percentage?
Followup.
Q: How much are company profits increasing inflation?
nath,
You can be a little pissant sometimes. Questioning my level of intelligence compared to the Treasurer’s was below the belt. Not to mention that he very likely is more intelligent than me, having a PhD and being Treasurer of the country. That’s just a guess though because it’s actually something that is unknowable. But it didn’t stop you putting your oar in. Oh well, I guess it made you feel your oats. Congrats.
Little talk of the Climate Change investments, but looking through BP2, these are game changing. This government needs to stay in power for the future of our planet.
Just received this email from Taylor
Tonight’s Budget makes it clear Labor has no plan to help Australians with the cost of living crisis.
This big-spending, big-taxing Budget will not build a stronger economy and is not fair to all Australians.
It does not address any structural budgetary challenges and will make life harder for Australian families, small businesses, self-funded retirees and mortgage holders.
After less than a year in Government, there is $185 billion of extra spending, which makes inflation worse and does nothing to help you or your family get ahead.
Instead, this Budget makes the situation worse. In fact, with the combined impact of interest rates and inflation, a typical Australian family is $25,000 a year worse off since the Albanese Government was elected.
The Budget confirms:
There will be no growth in real wages this year.
The cost of living will continue to rise.
Gas and electricity bills will continue to skyrocket.
Unemployment will rise.
Inflation will remain stubbornly high.
Australians will continue to face higher taxes.
This is a Budget of broken promises.
The Treasurer said the rate of unemployment would be the ultimate test. But his own Budget shows unemployment will rise.
The Prime Minister promised “cheaper mortgages” and “cheaper electricity bills”. But Australian families are making higher mortgage payments, and power bills are skyrocketing.
You always pay more under Labor.
Regards,
Angus Taylor.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
The Metcalfes of Nappa were sworn to the Nevilles until the the Battle of Barnet; then directly to Richard, Duke of Gloucester. Perhaps my kin owed your kin fealty at some stage, nath …
_______
No doubt AE. And we should restore the ancient ties of vassalage as soon as possible. I will make my progress North to Sydney relatively soon to receive homage.
Because the Coalition could not deliver a Surplus, does that mean their Treasurers were dumber than a Drover’s Dog?
“How many Australian’s under 40 would know what the F* he is saying?”
A lot of them were sold a (COVID) pup…
And on the other side of the hysteresis horseshoe is Adam Bandt.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 8:52 pm
nath,
You can be a little pissant sometimes. Questioning my level of intelligence compared to the Treasurer’s was below the belt.
_____
You, and a few other oddballs, want Australia to become some manufacturing powerhouse. As part of some nationalistic ideology of self sufficiency based on solar power, AI and robots.
I think that’s how it goes with your lot. Chalmers is smarter than that. Which is what I mean.
Bandt is well into bad faith lying.
Dutton, Bandt, same old, same old.
Adam Bandt saying there should be no money for housing, as it is not enough.
Bandt just said that ‘there is nothing in this Budget for Renters doing it tough’.
That’s just a lie.
So from memory there was Ozpolitics, Pollbludger and Mumble (with volumes in that order from memory) till ozpolitics collapsed and we disreputables landed here, to much much doubt about process.
I’m not sure how many years passed but then we had the crikey years, and they must have finished a week or two ago now?
Would you settle for a shared bottle of Primativo, nath? Perhaps with an 1769 Armagnac as an after dinner digestive?
The Victory parade in Moscow was tiny compares to normal displays. I suspect the Russian will claim it was small due to the risk of drone attacks. An alternative explanation is that the Russians knew they could not mount a big parade, so did the Kremlin attack as a false flag to explain the small parade.
nath,
That’s not what I meant at all. But keep verballing me, it’s what you excel at, telling people what they actually meant, when you have no idea really. You could have been polite and asked me what I meant, but that’s not how you roll. I should have known better than to expect reasoned debate from you.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, May 9, 2023 at 9:02 pm
Would you settle for a shared bottle of Primativo, nath? Perhaps with an 1769 Armagnac as an after dinner digestive?
_________
When it comes to wine and poetry, I am admittedly a savage. But it does sound nice!
It was striking how much less impressive Angus Taylor sounded without Treasury staff to feed him all the answers. Chalmers will have no fear of him now.
The two ABC compares (Karvalas and Fernandes) were pretty fair.
Switching off before Insiders.
Great to see Chalmers introducing and defending a Labor budget appealing to core Labor social justice values. Somewhere on a cloud above Canberra, Gough and Hawke are smiling down.
Ok C@t. sorry I was mean to you. But Australian manufacturing triggers me.
Insiders is a conga line of Liberal sympathisers
Grudgingly saying Chalmers has targeted the inputs into CPI. Sneaky.
Invading Ukraine. No one thinks big of you.
I started on possum when it was possum when it had comments then to Crikey, though in fits and spurts over the years when elections were on. My interest has gotten stronger over the past 3 years moving to the country and seeing at close hand just how bad the LNP has been for Australia.
10000 extra Public Servants is way better than 10000 extra Consultants. Which is what the Coalition would prefer.
I think one of our legal people here ( AE perhaps) raised this in discussion of the Cleo Smith sentencing. A High Court precedent?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/09/cleo-smith-kidnapper-appeals-13-year-sentence-arguing-judge-failed-to-give-weight-to-turbulent-upbringing
“That’s not what I meant at all. But keep verballing me, it’s what you excel at, telling people what they actually meant, when you have no idea really. You could have been polite and asked me what I meant, but that’s not how you roll. I should have known better than to expect reasoned debate from you.”
Yeah he is definitely the only one who did that in the discussion tonight. Bad bad Nath.