The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 55-45 to 56-44, although Labor and the Coalition are unchanged on the primary vote at 38% and 33% respectively, with the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation down one to 7%. Both leaders’ personal ratings have softened, though from a substantially higher base in the case of Anthony Albanese, who is down three on approval to 53% and up two on disapproval to 37%, while Peter Dutton is down two to 33% and up four to 52%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 58-26 to 54-28. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1514.
Have the Greens officially dumped their policy setting to halve the ADF and to turn it into a ‘Light Mobile Force’ presumably armed with copies of ‘Peace Studies 101’?
Cronus says:
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 6:26 am
I regret to inform Simon Benson that (on the basis of this sole, unimpressive metric) Dutton is drowning, not waving. After almost a year, the trend is hardening, even Dutton’s base and supporters must see that.
The OZ
“ The only good news for Mr Dutton was an improvement in the head-to-head contest over who voters regard as making the better prime minister.
The level of support for Mr Albanese in the job fell four points to 54 per cent, while those backing Mr Dutton rose two points to 28 per cent.”
____________
The power of positive thinking: I’ve got my deficit down to 26%! Should be able to govern in a decade!
I notice “Red Alert” Mick Ryan is weeping for the army because the IFV order will be cut from 450 to 129 units.
In my view Land 400, phase 3 was always misconceived. The venerable M113 APC was something of general purpose workhorse. The IFVs under consideration are much larger – and more specialised vehicles. A simple swap of old Vietnam war era APCs for modern IFVs never made sense. Not with advances in AWD technology for wheeled armoured vehicles.
So it makes sense to split the replacement for the M113 between multiple platforms. This sort of happened 20 years ago with the introduction of the ASLSAV. Now, drawing from the lessons of three conflicts (Iraq 2, Afghanistan and now Ukraine) landing on a mixed armour configuration under our combined arms doctrine as per Plan Beersheba makes sense.
So having around 150 ‘heavy armour’ (new MBTs and specialised tank chassis kit as announced over past years), 130 odd tracked IFVs, probably an increase overtime in the 225 Boxer ARCs on order, plus the Bushmasters and Hawkei are the way to go. That’s still more than 3,000 armoured vehicles for the ADF. Enough, especially under the Plan Beersheba force doctrine which sees a capability of 1-2 brigades being deployed at any time: that’s more than enough armour frankly.
I note that there seems to be movement in the self propelled artillery space. So I reserve judgment on that until the announcement is made (it may be the cancellation of the last phase will dovetail in with an announcement to use Boxer and Lynx chassis for Rheinmetall Australia to build self propelled guns with).
I certainly dont think that cutting back the IVF order to 129 will cost Australian jobs because the Ipswich Rheinmetall factory will be flat out with orders for Boxers for both Australian and Germany this decade, plus the 129 IVFs (assuming that they and not Lynx win the phase 4 contract) plus potentially self propelled guns and maybe even further sport orders for places like Ukraine.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #94 Monday, April 24th, 2023 – 9:42 am
If you are auditioning to replace Barry Humphries, my best advice is that you don’t give up your day job.
Is it an unconscious reflect action to use selective facts to misrepresent and hence denigrate Labor P1, or do you have to conscious work at it, P1?
”
Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 9:42 am
Ven says:
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 8:48 am
Ex-BBC said on ABC TV that whole of Britain is in mourning on Humphries death as if they lost one of their own.
_____________________________
Humphries was part of the great Aussie exodus of actors/artists and writers who fled to England, primarily Earls Court in the 1960s with the belief that if you wanted to be a success, best not to stay in Australia, probably the best example of the cultural cringe in action.
Thank goodness its nothing like that now, and if you want to be a big success or film star you just go to the USA/Hollywood
”
“if you want to be a big success or film star you just go to the USA/Hollywood”
can read
if you want to be a big success or film star you just go to the USA/Hollywood/ Bollywood. 🙂
VCT Et3e says:
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 7:28 am
https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/04/23/newspoll-56-44-to-labor-open-thread-2/#comment-4101330
Which VPN?
中华人民共和国
Proton VPN – subscription service too. No matter how hard I tried no cigar. Anyways I’m sure some on here didn’t miss me 🙂
BTW was looking at some EV Car factories over there – we supply some of the raw materials. Going gang busters in China.
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 9:42 am
I see P1 is up and about with some selective facts for her anti labor snark.
Regarding S3 and Defence spending, we await the details of exactly how Albo and Chalmers will handle the costs of these hot ScoMo legacy turds.
”
I dispute”hot ScoMo legacy turds”. They are ScoMo “sh*t sandwiches “, which Albanese ate for whatever reasons and knowing what they are. Now he can’t spit them out because he ate them.
Update: “As for S3: the main ‘sin’ is that the tax cuts are unfunded. ”
Well that is biggest sin. Morrison seems to believe Money grows on trees. You know what stinks to the sky or like a Skunk fart. It is that Lucien made him the Treasurer of this country and Liberal party voted him as PM and people in 2019 voted for his government.
The EU, as well as its member states France, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, have all joined Ukraine in demanding China immediately clarify this:
“Lu Shaye, China’s ambassador to France, said in an interview that former Soviet republics lacked effective status in international law”
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/23/7399110/
They are all absolutely correct that it is completely unacceptable for China to not recognise the full sovereign status of Ukraine on the spurious basis of its historical status as a member of the former USSR. There is no way Beijing can be a good faith mediator between Kyiv and Moscow if it doesn’t even think Kyiv is a legitimate sovereign government.
Beijing must declare immediately and unequivocally whether they think the Ukrainian government based in Kyiv and headed by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has sovereign power over the territory defined as ‘Ukraine’ by the UN. If they don’t, I think Ukraine and any of its allies who are willing should treat Beijing as an enemy.
[#1 today]
Ven
Your comment on British cartooning interested me.
There was a huge to-do on Bludger in relation to the cartooning of a certain US tennis personality.
There are various POVs tenable, IMO.
The essential problem seems to be that cartoonists draw cartoons. In so doing they are expected to at least vaguely reflect the visage being drawn while they are also expected to abstract from that to establish their own cartooning style. In the end, a caricature is a caricature is a caricature. A usual consequence is that aspects of a particular political face are routinely exaggerated. Dutton morphs into a spud.
One difficult challenge for cartoonists is that they do not operate in a vacuum. Historical cartooning created ‘styles’ that are now considered to be racist stereotypes. Think heavy-browed, big nosed, thick lipped and black haired cartoons of jews in germany before WW2.
So, to answer your question, there may be no one answer to your general question.
Snappy Tom @ Monday, April 24, 2023 at 9:46 am:
“Clearly, the Dutton-led LNP is too woke, leaving true believers little option but to switch to ON.
[Per Sky News polling analysis…]”
=====================
😆
I wonder how Sky explained ON losing 1 on PV, and the Greens gaining 1?
😆
E already
1?
Well within the MOE and essentially meaningless.
frednk @ #76 Monday, April 24th, 2023 – 9:42 am
Related though.
Boerwar @ Monday, April 24, 2023 at 10:19 am:
“E already
1?
Well within the MOE and essentially meaningless.”
===========
BW, understood, but my point is that the poll hardly justifies whatever Sky might be arguing about a ‘leakage to ON’ because the LNP is ‘too woke’.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #105 Monday, April 24th, 2023 – 10:10 am
Facts are damned inconvenient things, aren’t they? But I thought lawyers were trained how to deal with them. Perhaps you were cutting class that day?
Enough Already,
I thank Lu Shaye for his clear enunciation of Chinese policy as it pertains to the former USSR Republics. It certainly puts to bed any idea that China would be an honest broker in any peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Enough Already says:
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 10:23 am
Boerwar @ Monday, April 24, 2023 at 10:19 am:
“E already
1?
Well within the MOE and essentially meaningless.”
===========
BW, understood, but my point is that the poll hardly justifies whatever Sky might be arguing about a ‘leakage to ON’ because the LNP is ‘too woke’.
____________
Whatever electoral problems the LNP have are a direct result of them being too woke.
You know it makes sense.
C@tmomma @ Monday, April 24, 2023 at 10:24 am:
“Enough Already,
I thank Lu Shaye for his clear enunciation of Chinese policy as it pertains to the former USSR Republics. It certainly puts to bed any idea that China would be an honest broker in any peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.”
=============
C@tmomma, I believe what Lu Shaye did falls under the correct meaning of the term ‘gaffe’: ‘an inadvertent statement by a politician that the politician believes is true while the politician has not fully analyzed the consequences of publicly stating it’.
I also agree it is good Lu Shaye has, as another poster here put it last night, ‘let the cat out of the bag’ about Beijing’s intentions towards the world around them: looking for reasons in history, however arbitrary or spurious, to set aside recognition of other countries’ sovereignty in the ruthless pursuit of its own interests.
It dismays me that Brazil’s Lula, and Italy’s Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, are falling into line behind Beijing as some sort of ‘neutral mediator’ between Kyiv and Moscow. It is completely inappropriate, as well as disrespectful to the Ukrainians who have lost their lives and livelihoods in this invasion, for them to be seeking to argue over Kyiv’s head to try to coerce Ukraine to give up land and people to Moscow.
[#2 today]
Tim Wilson was major player in the franking credits disinformation campaign.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/28/tim-wilson-helped-write-20-of-submissions-to-franking-credits-inquiry
He said his activities were separate from those of his relative. Some might not believe that.
From memory he came close to being found guilty of breaching parliamentary rules. But I can’t find that link.
Edit https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/lib-mp-avoids-probe-into-inquiry-handling/4e19pev0a
Snappy Tom @ #118 Monday, April 24th, 2023 – 10:31 am
On the one hand it’s fun to watch them throw themselves even more over the cliff in ever-increasing acts of reality-denying, self-unaware idiocy.
On the other, eventually they’re going to win an election no matter how broken their “always go right” car is, because the pendulum always swings back.
So mostly I prefer to not have a feral, proto-fascist right-wing major party just sitting around waiting for that to happen. It would be better, though less funny, if they get sensible and move leftwards a bit to compete for more mainstream voters. Let the hopeless minor splinter parties like PHON and PUP provide the comic relief.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK, which contained a lot of doom and gloom over the Defence Review.
The simple fact is there is no country expanding defence spending any faster, except in Easter Europe, thanks to current world economy, interest rate, and borrowing costs. Plus most of Scomo’s AUKUS announcements (and others) were unfunded, as usual.
So if new things are needed, there must be some cuts. I wonder if its i time for some rationalisation too? Under the previous government we were buying small quantities of everything. Why not getting more capabilities as a variant on the same chassis? Even large armies like the French and German do this, why not us. For example, the Boxer APC the army is already getting has a 155mm artillery and 120mm gun turret variant available. Why not get them rather than entirely new vehicles?
Also, after the war in Ukraine, even if we must keep tanks, I cannot understand why we are still spending $5 billion on new Apache helicopters when the JSDF is phasing theirs out?
Helicopters have proven very vulnerable in Ukraine, and they have nothing to do with “long range strike” capability. We could buy the planned fourth squadron of F35s for the same price.
A mediated settlement between Ukraine and Russia is a complete non starter for as long as Putin remains in power. He crossed his personal Rubicon by the end of February last year: there is simply no turning back for the regime because he has bet the house on this gambit.
However, some sort of face saving ‘Armistice’ maybe be possible; but I don’t see any of the countries that have thus far stuck their hand up to play the part of mediator actually having much of a role, if any, in negotiations.
Indulging in a bit of crystal ball gazing, if one or both parties come to the conclusion that they want/need a permanent ceasefire, they will probably send signals via back channels for the role of mediator to be played by some august and respected former senior diplomat. Perhaps someone like Ban Ki-moon.
I also just caught up with Tim Wilson’s wreath laying “Stolen Glamour” stunt at the Anzac Day service. How pathetic!
I note there has also been an urgent defence tweeted by Wilson of his actions, and quite a pile on of Liberal fans in his defence. This all looks suspiciously like an organised stunt.
Wilson was reportedly handed the wreath by “an RSL volunteer” while he just happened to be lingering near the wreath table – hoping for his chance?
This seems apt:
“The Shovel@TheShovel·56m
Tim Wilson has named himself in Collingwood’s starting 22 for tomorrow’s Anzac Day clash
Soc,
This note in Amy’s article about the Defense Posture Review may interest you:
In the yin and yang of defence spending, programs going down mean other programs must go up.
Other projects that the review argues should be “accelerated and expanded” include one to acquire a land-based maritime strike capability. The project (Land 4100 Phase 2) will enable ground forces to strike ships at sea.
Tim Wilson achieved what he set out to,
he is front page news all over Australia
I make mo secret of my criticism of the Nine Papers.
But credit where it is due.
It seems that they are attempting to run some serious journalism about the issues faced by this country as it concerns housing. Leaving aside the rampant property boosterism Nine have often engaged in to pump up Domain, the journalism and urgent need to really talk about housing reform in this country is worthy of rational debate. I am glad they seem to be giving some oxygen to this urgent issue.
I just hope that our political class can look beyond narrow self interest given their extensive property holdings and the obvious panic which sets in when sensible reform of housing is discussed, to take this forward.
I understand political imperatives and electability dominate our short term electoral cycles but housing and all of the policy settings around it really is a beast that has the potential (and some might argue already has) destroyed the fabric of this country.
Have a look in today’s Age at the headline to the latest Victorian poll. “Labor holds lead over state Coalition, but Deeming drama fails to make dent.”
Their bs about Andrews controlling every portfolio also failed to make a dent.
Thanks BK
I also found this comment by Sean Kelly in the SMH to be quite telling given that I thought the Libs were reflecting the values of its members. Is he saying that they’re not and that the membership are even more out of touch?
“ Both Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison found themselves trapped, unable to move for fear of repercussions from their increasingly feverish party. Journalist James Campbell (editor of the Herald Sun no less) puts this another way: if the Liberal Party adopted policies that reflected the actual values of its members it would be smashed at the ballot box. Why should Dutton find this dilemma any simpler than his predecessors?”
@P1:
“ Facts are damned inconvenient things, aren’t they? But I thought lawyers were trained how to deal with them. Perhaps you were cutting class that day?”
____
You obviously don’t realise that you are embarrassing yourself. Take this sweeping statement that you made at 9.22am:
“ Summary of today’s news (aka the Raw Prawn Patrol) …
– Australia plans to cut spending on local defence capability because we need the money to pay for long range strike capabilities and imaginary nuclear submarines.”
For starters, we should both caveat our remarks by acknowledging that we are both relying on media interpretations of what has been leaked to them, and should allow the report to speak for itself when it is announced.
However, going off those media reports lined in the Dawn Patrol it is obvious that THE OPPOSITE to what you assert is likely to be true. For two reasons:
1. More missiles, even ‘long range strike’ missiles equates to more “Defence of Australia” capability as those missiles all seem to be naval strike missiles designed to hit targets from long distances – ie. to keep foes well away from the Australian homeland. This is a classic ‘sea denial’ ie. “local” to the continent of Australia DEFENSIVE capability; and
2. Insofar as your comment may reference ‘Australian jobs’ in local defence manufacturing, those same media reports foreshadow a huge investment in local development and production lines for both missiles and drones. Also – the fact that we are apparently still committed to acquiring 129 IFV means that there will be Australian jobs – either in Melbourne or Ipswich – building them alongside the 225 Boxer ARVs. And so on.
Edited to note a point that C@t made:
“ Other projects that the review argues should be “accelerated and expanded” include one to acquire a land-based maritime strike capability. The project (Land 4100 Phase 2) will enable ground forces to strike ships at sea.”
So, such a ‘land-based maritime strike capability’ equates exactly to “local defence capability” as such batteries are likely to be stationed along the Australian coast, or perhaps some our our off-shore islands.
Q: Barry Humphries comes from a time when Australians could laugh at themselves.
What a crock….the Adelaide Fringe recently finished, with 1700 performers more than half comedians and Australians…..and I can assure that most of their jokes involved laughing about this country and all our quirks.
Comedy is in the healthiest state it has ever been in this country
The Liberal MP Is On the Brink of Extinction
https://theshovel.com.au/2023/04/04/the-liberal-mp-is-on-the-brink-of-extinction/
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 10:24 am
Enough Already,
I thank Lu Shaye for his clear enunciation of Chinese policy as it pertains to the former USSR Republics. It certainly puts to bed any idea that China would be an honest broker in any peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
”
What ‘policy’ do you expect from a country, which has ‘territorial disputes’ with almost all its neighbours based on some ‘historical context ‘ whether it is true or not?
I think the latest poll results are testament to intelligent leadership by Albanese, a PM who actually has his finger on the pulse of the nation, who understands that the population is the political centre of gravity.
IMO Albanese understands the importance of taking the nation along with him rather than getting out too far ahead of them. Although he no doubt wishes to make significant changes, he understands that legitimacy and trust are central to this and building and maintaining these characteristics into a second term will allow him the freedom to establish new progressive policies.
A nice take on Tim Wilson, fallen soldier in the Culture Wars:
Pup Fiction@jjjove·15h
“They shall grow not bold, as we that are the Left grow bold;
The Age shall not weary them, nor David Speers condemn.
At the going down of The Herald Sun and in the Sydney Morning Herald
We will remember them.”
On May 21, we commemorate the fallen seats of the Modern Liberal”
“ Former Liberal candidate Katherine Deves has pulled out of the race to fill the senate vacancy created by the death of the late Jim Molan. ”
Oh well never mind. Strike two against Deves.
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/katherine-deves-drops-out-of-race-for-vacant-nsw-senate-seat/news-story/a0ddbce74a8948e4ed37b5c68bb85af6
This is apparently an example of the Albanese Government cutting “local defence capability” because – insert P1’s pretzel logic – the platforms under consideration are also ‘long range strike missiles’.
https://youtu.be/ln4nXSwU7cs
I guess – insert P1’s pretzel logic again – that it would be much better to allow a foe to land an army in Australia so our valiant young diggers have the opportunity to add their names to the honour role for future ANZAC day commemorations.
”
Socratessays:
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 10:59 am
I also just caught up with Tim Wilson’s wreath laying “Stolen Glamour” stunt at the Anzac Day service. How pathetic!
I note there has also been an urgent defence tweeted by Wilson of his actions, and quite a pile on of Liberal fans in his defence. This all looks suspiciously like an organised stunt.
Wilson was reportedly handed the wreath by “an RSL volunteer” while he just happened to be lingering near the wreath table – hoping for his chance?
This seems apt:
“The Shovel@TheShovel·56m
Tim Wilson has named himself in Collingwood’s starting 22 for tomorrow’s Anzac Day clash
”
”
”
Correction: “The Shovel@TheShovel·56m
Nath has named himself in Collingwood’s starting 22 for tomorrow’s Anzac Day clash
”
🙂
Howdy! A quick fly and bye, on a lovely long weekend, to see how Barry Humphries is being remembered here on PB and, without any scrolling back to wherever and whatever you’ve all been up to, add some thoughts, and some videos, with apologies if already posted.
I agree with Miriam Margolyes (BBC clip, I think) that however one might disagree with his politics, he was a genius and a wit of a rare if not completely unique kind. I’d add that he had a fierce intelligence backed with vast knowledge, and was a performer of enormous courage.
This early lockdown 2022 zoom call with Richard Tognetti and Satu Vanska from the Australian Chamber Orchestra tells us a lot, and foretells, with his trademark humour, where we are today. ‘Spooky’ I think the great Dame would say. He was very close to the ACO, performed with them (lost and forgotten songs of the Weimar Republic), and we were lucky to see him at a reception after a small private performance not that long ago, where he looked frail, but still with that whimsical anything could happen next quirky smile, and twinkle in his eye, attended by a small retinue and a walking stick.
Talking from London on his early life, performing, his musical loves, what makes him cry, and the voice of Satu Vanska, you get some insight in Barry Humphries the person. The ACO are just wrapping up a Nth American tour, and you could fairly predict will likely be involved in whatever public memorial comes to be arranged.
From London (30 mins)
https://youtu.be/kLoLxFwCYyQ
The act 3 Der Rosenkavalier trio that could bring him to tears. It is the acceptance of the passage of time, the recognition that nothing lasts, except love, now bequeathed graciously to the young. Metropolitan Opera Gala Concert Performance 1983. Strauss was a master at writing for the female voice. (6 mins)
https://youtu.be/k0KvIGx1Kwg
And finally, an fond farewell, in the hands of Tognetti (Sydney Town Hall)
https://youtu.be/57VR2MKfFIU
That’s all folks. I’m off, busy as. Keep well.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #129 Monday, April 24th, 2023 – 11:13 am
Oh, I think it is Labor that should be embarrassed. And all those who follow them uncritically.
But perhaps the ABC has got it wrong?
One can only wonder what the “private” version of the review says. My guess is that it probably has the words ‘DON’T PANIC’ in large, friendly letters on the cover.
Oh, and I like the term “impactful projection”. That’s almost as good as “maximum strategic ambiguity”. But then that would work as well, wouldn’t it?
Still, I look on the bright side – if a rusted-on like you can understand what a waste of time, money, effort and opportunity Labor’s pursuit of imaginary submarines is, then there is at least still some hope.
Dog’s Brunch 9:06
“ Also, he obviously has staunch supporters in the local RSL because he said he was asked by one of them to come along when they found out that Zoe Daniel wasn’t going to be there. Crumbs the lot of them.”
—————————————————
Oh I see, Wilson is blaming an RSL member for the situation, for asking him to lay the wreath. Would Wilson have jumped off a cliff if the RSL member asked him to? What a stupid and lazy excuse by Wilson who undoubtedly knew from his own experience that Daniel would send a representative.
Dog’s Brunch says:
Monday, April 24, 2023 at 9:12 am
Like all good comics, Barry H was an excellent observer of people. His comedy reflected those observations and having grown up in the 30s and 40s saw enormous change in his world. Can we imagine another time when so much change occurs in a lifetime?
It goes without saying that some of his output may not be viewed as kindly in more enlightened times but his is an impressive body of work and certainly worth preserving.
——————————————————-
I laughed my head off last night when I saw the replayed clip of Dame Edna sitting in the Royal Box at the Royal Gala with Charles and Camilla.
He quickly informed the audience that he had to move because the attendant had found him a better seat, much to Charles’ amusement. 😆
God you’re an idiot, P1.
You read a little, comprehend even less, but have a huge imagination.
“Local Defence capability” for Australia has long meant “Sea-Denial”. Like for over 80 years. It has NOT focused on land based defence within Australia, as that would be catastrophic.
Once you grasp that basic concept then phrases like “ impactful projection” are immediately understood: lots of missiles, armed in aircraft, embarked on ships and subs, and now mounted in land based batteries equate to “impactful projection” – ie. “we will fucking sink you if you get within 1000nm of the Australian mainland, if not before THAT”.
This is classic “Defence of Australia” stuff. Entirely a “local [to the continent of Australia] defence capability.
Fool.
frednk
JSDF = ADF? (Discuss.)
I really like Perun’s videos; ditto Greg Jericho/Grog’s Gamut posts.
They’re well researched, use Australian vernacular and (dry) humour as appropriate, and most importantly make sense. e.g. “Start shit, get hit.”
Andrew_Earlwood,
I think the army is making a mistake with small batches of IFV they are getting. Too heavy. Think about driving one of them up the mountains around timor. The roads would collapse. I think the Hawkie would be too wide. I certainly found it pretty tense hanging over the edge in a Sixbie back in the day.
Tracks don’t deploy! That’s the big take away. The Boxer and the IFV’s are 25Tn +. The M113 is 13. Both are terrible. The Boxer is slightly forgivable because it has great protection and a modern build. But we should be thinking about the Stryker. Cheap and easy to get form our US friends.
Also. We’re not talking enough about helicopters. We needs lots more of them. The Army should be thinking about air assault as a basic skill.
Andrew_Earlwood @ Monday, April 24, 2023 at 11:28 am:
“I guess – insert P1’s pretzel logic again – that it would be much better to allow a foe to land an army in Australia so our valiant young diggers have the opportunity to add their names to the honour role for future ANZAC day commemorations.”
================
A_E., you point out the fundamental flaw in a ‘deterrence by retaliation’ doctrine which is implicit in the strategy of relying for our defence upon ground-based counteroffensive capability: the inevitability of thereby ceding effective control over swathes of one’s own territory – and the people residing there – to the tender mercies of an occupying force, and further requiring the sacrifice of much military blood in recapturing that territory.
Ukrainians can testify to the awful costs a nation bears in having to follow that strategic path in repelling an invasion. Baltic states and Poland have watched Ukraine’s travails at the hands of Russian occupiers and have responded by demanding NATO switch from its ‘deterrence by retaliation’ posture to ‘defence by denial’. Every country would be well advised to consider that lesson themselves, especially us. After all, we enjoy geographical barriers to invasion that would make ‘deterrence by denial’ even more feasible for us against potential invaders than it is for Eastern Europe against Russia.
Someone should try to rationally explain this to the likes of Player One. Oh, wait …
Don’t you see the same vulnerability for helicopters as for MBTs, south? ie. from hand held missile systems?
I’m not sure I’m ‘sold’ on your ‘tracks dont deploy’ mantra. I think its a case of ‘it depends on the circumstances’, and with a ratio of about 280 tracked armoured vehicles to over 2000 wheeled armoured vehicles its pretty hard to argue that there is a bias in favour of tracks in the force structure.
I tend to agree with you on weight however. Following the IED experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq, Land 400 has emphasised protection over mobility. Again, I think that the wisdom of that depends on ‘circumstances’ and it equally likely that in some unknown future conflict that mobility may be more important. Hence I think that the army should have considered replacing the ASLAV with an equivalent chassis – either instead of the Boxer – or (my preference) to enter service alongside the larger armoured units.
I think a balanced armour capability would look something like this:
– 130-150 heavy tracked armour (MTBs, anti-mine field tanks, recovery vehicles, bridging vehicles)
– 130-200 IFVs (which may include tracked self propelled guns)
– 200-250 Boxer 4x8s (which may also include tracked self propelled guns)
– 200-250 ASLAV class 4 x 8s
– 1200 odd Bushmasters
– 600 odd hawkei large 4 x 4s
– 600 odd lighter and smaller (than the huge Hawkei) armoured 4 x 4s
Player Onesays: Monday, April 24, 2023 at 11:30 am:
“Oh, and I like the term “impactful projection”. That’s almost as good as “maximum strategic ambiguity”. But then that would work as well, wouldn’t it?”
=============
Player One, curiously, if you take this quote of yours out of the context in which you made it, as well as completely unironically ( ie, opposite to your intention in saying it), you actually hit the mark with this. Deterrence works best precisely when it induces a would-be attacker to apprehend suffering the greatest possible loss after the soonest time elapsing from them manifesting any attempt by them to so attack.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #142 Monday, April 24th, 2023 – 11:38 am
Are you too afraid to say “China”? Or is it that you realize that if you did spell out in detail who this new “local” policy is actually intended for, then this new “impactful projection” capability would simply be laughed at? Just as our delusion of being able to defend our trade routes with a few imaginary submarines is laughed at.
You know what the genius of Barry Humphrey was? He got Australians to laugh at Australians. Getting the rest of the world to laugh at Australians is no feat at all.
Tim Wilson was major player in the franking credits disinformation campaign.
Yep. He also used the same lie when he conceded his lost his seat of Goldstein. That he was proud to stop Labor’s ‘retiree tax’ which he was referring to the franking credits.
Tim Wilson really is a hypocrite. He is a part of the IPA which champions small government and limited government. And the franking credits is just the opposite giving out tax payers money to people with shares. There is nothing small government or limited government about it as its just virtually a handout.
Hi Itza!
You have been missed.
Hit me up with an email, if you’d like to touch base. I’ve misplaced yours, and if you have done likewise you can ask our lord god of Bludger to forward you mine again.
Cheers Andrew