Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)

Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead returning to a height it last enjoyed in early September, although there is little movement on the primary vote.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 55-45 to 56-44, although Labor and the Coalition are unchanged on the primary vote at 38% and 33% respectively, with the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation down one to 7%. Both leaders’ personal ratings have softened, though from a substantially higher base in the case of Anthony Albanese, who is down three on approval to 53% and up two on disapproval to 37%, while Peter Dutton is down two to 33% and up four to 52%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 58-26 to 54-28. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1514.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,122 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. C@tmomma @ 6.53am
    I have heard the local LNP media talking up Useless Lucy as the un-selected LNP candidate for Robertson.
    Her connection with Robertson is so tenuous, that her few campaign appearances were limited to stunts with Scummo – and invitation only events.
    Most likely, his Comm Car, did a short North Shore deviation to collect Lucy before their stunt appearances at places close to the F1 Freeway off ramps.
    She was a hand-picked mate of Abbott & Scummo and without their influence is a political nobody.

  2. ”Tim Wilson is just exhibiting that infamous born to rule mentality the Liberals have.”

    I think it might be worse than that. The practice described by C@t of MPs sending delegates to ensure that the local MHR is represented at all Anzac services in their area must be well known to a former MHR. He is not just being disengenous, he is deliberately setting out to deceive – at the very least trying to raise his profile by acting as if he was still the local member. Maybe he was trying to create an incident in which he would be reported favourably to him by friendly media. Maybe he was playing culture wars by trying to spread the lie that the member who replaced him disrespected Anzac Day.

    He has form, as his taxpayer-funded “retirement tax” disinformation tours attest.

  3. Every state premier and territory chief minister has announced in favour of Yes. The fact that Tasmania, whose vote has made the difference at three of the five “double majority” referendum failures, has a sympathetic Liberal government bodes well in the event of a close outcome. Ditto the fact that the high-profile Liberal member for Bass, Bridget Archer, will be campaigning Yes. (Is this combination of universal second-tier support and a lack of federal bipartisanship a first? Probably.)

    The federal opposition leader doesn’t enjoy wide appeal. The campaigning on Alice Springs crime, like John Howard’s 2007 Northern Territory intervention, is at its heart designed to kindle fear of Aborigines “out of control.” It has a limited constituency, and voter cynicism about such tactics abounds.

    https://insidestory.org.au/peter-duttons-no-payoff-gamble/

    Let’s hope the chips keep getting stacked against the NO case as time ticks on.

  4. Tim Wilson reminds me of those businessmen who lose their jobs, but still get up and put on a suit and leave the house everyday, pretending to have a job to avoid the shame.

    How embarrassing and humiliating to ‘pretend’ you have your old position…. imagine going to an old workplace and just started doing things around the office….people would think you are nuts.

  5. Steve777,
    I’d go for this one:

    Maybe he was playing culture wars by trying to spread the lie that the member who replaced him disrespected Anzac Day.

    Also, he obviously has staunch supporters in the local RSL because he said he was asked by one of them to come along when they found out that Zoe Daniel wasn’t going to be there. Crumbs the lot of them.


  6. Dutton is the right politician for the post-QAnon age: in fact, the radical right zeitgeist caught up with him. His decision to drum up (another) paedophilia crisis to stain the referendum on the Voice to parliament is both grotesque and on trend, says Lucy Hamilton.
    https://johnmenadue.com/grotesque-dutton-drums-up-another-pedophilia-crisis/

    This.
    As some say Barry Humphries shown light on Australia of 50s, 60s and 70s, Dutton displays what Liberal party has become: a grotesque, mean-spirited, self-entitiled political entity

  7. “the money is everything brigade”

    To ignore this tenet for political survival is a sure way to garnish disapproval from the “not so free press”, the ” highly remunerated mandarins”, the subsidised superannuated club, Mark Vaile, Martin Ferguson and the non-tax paying corporate sector of the economy.

    The decision to allow the legislated tax benefits to remain till 2024 and a few highly placed highly paid LNP biased mandarins to remain in their positions is all about having enough time for Labor to return a nation to some normality after the damaged caused by Howard’ fourth term, the drongo from England, Turnbull’s personality disorders and the radical Geographer with the messiah complex.

    Labor voters did well at the last election and the polls suggest the voters intend to give Labor time to renovate the cloak of disguised equality the LNP would have you imagine.

    The FICAC is yet to fumigate the “ferals” from their many nests throughout and at all levels governance across this broad brown land.

  8. What a complete wanker Tim Wilson is, he obviously hasn’t come to terms with Zoe Daniel beating him in 2022, hopefully she beats him again in 2025(I assume he’ll get preselection for Goldstein again).
    As for the seat of Robertson, Gordon Reid comes across as a very hard working MP, and he’s a rather good speaker in parliament too. C@t would know this better than me, but isn’t it true that Lucy Wicks doesn’t actually live on the Central Coast of NSW – she’s another person who comes across as a self-entitled Liberal, who thinks the world owes her a living.

  9. Any poll is open to any number of interpretations.

    But I do rather believe that Newspoll shows that Australians are over bad faith post truth lying and are rather appreciating having adults in charge.

    Given the COL pressures and housing pressures the Newspoll figures are quite remarkable.

  10. Oh to be a fly on the wall when Simon Benson has to write up a column on the latest Newspoll result, he really must hate those 56-44 Labor leads, as do his employers at the Australian probably too.
    The likes of Simon Benson and Phil Coorey would hate it that they no longer get leaks from the PM’s office, like they did when Morrison was in the big chair.

  11. UK Cartoons:
    Ben Jennings on #Braverman pushing forward with her #Rwanda plan

    Patrick Blower on #CivilService #CivilServants

    “Y’know, I’ve got a nasty feeling that those Stop Oil protesters have been meddling with the sign-posts.” #JustStopOil #LondonMarathon

    Morten Morland on Dominic Raab’s resignation #Raab #DominicRaab #RaabResigns #RaabTheBully

  12. Evan @ 8.21am
    That is why her electorate office is at West Gosford, the first major retail / shopping centre, when you exit the freeway at Kariong.
    I could never understand why a Catholic, like Abbott, endorsed a happy clapper in the first instance for Robertson.
    As one of my surfing buddies used to say at Copa Point, when it was pumping and the break was clogging up with non-locals, “Show me your rate notice”?

  13. I see Newspoll is saying of the two parties, Labor is seen as less shit.

    I also note Albanese essentially getting whacked and Dutton being informed he’s no chance.


  14. Evansays:
    Monday, April 24, 2023 at 8:21 am
    What a complete wanker Tim Wilson is, he obviously hasn’t come to terms with Zoe Daniel beating him in 2022, hopefully she beats him again in 2025(I assume he’ll get preselection for Goldstein again).

    According to some news reports he was in fetal position for weeks crying his eyes out for the loss.

  15. Benson did not delay stating the obvious immediately after the latest poll was released

    “No sign of Labor losing its popular ascendancy
    After almost a year in office, the Albanese government remains not only dominant but showing no sign of losing its ascendancy.”

    This after having posted and headlined “voters turning away from leaders”.

    Benson’s paper however did give us this,
    MEDIA DIARY
    “ABC’s ‘Labor Thugs’ host breaks her silence
    For a year, ABC News Breakfast weekend host Fauziah Ibrahim didn’t say a word about her infamous Twitter list of ‘Labor Thugs’ – but she has finally broken her silence.”


  16. Rex Douglassays:
    Monday, April 24, 2023 at 8:38 am
    I see Newspoll is saying of the two parties, Labor is seen as less shit.

    I also note Albanese essentially getting whacked and Dutton being informed he’s no chance.

    Rex is Benson’s town cryer.


  17. Ben Jennings on #Braverman pushing forward with her #Rwanda plan

    Braverman looks like Sunak caricature in the cartoon.

    Do all people of Indian heritage look the same for British people like all Chinese look the same?

  18. I think appreciation of Barry Humphries’ talents must be a generational thing. Most people I know outside of family think he was pure cringe. Still, we’ve all heard of him, so that speaks to his stature in Australian culture.

  19. Evan @ #41 Monday, April 24th, 2023 – 8:21 am

    What a complete wanker Tim Wilson is, he obviously hasn’t come to terms with Zoe Daniel beating him in 2022, hopefully she beats him again in 2025(I assume he’ll get preselection for Goldstein again).
    As for the seat of Robertson, Gordon Reid comes across as a very hard working MP, and he’s a rather good speaker in parliament too. C@t would know this better than me, but isn’t it true that Lucy Wicks doesn’t actually live on the Central Coast of NSW – she’s another person who comes across as a self-entitled Liberal, who thinks the world owes her a living.

    Her father was the Principal of a CC Happy Clapper school, so she has links, but after he was convicted of embezzling funds from the school that link became more tenuous as the family retreated to the North Shore. Though they obviously maintained their links to the Happy Clappers on the CC and the Liberal Party there as she got the nomination for Robertson to go up against Deb O’Neill. After she beat her I heard that Lucy bought a house up here but kept her kids at schools on the North Shore.

  20. Ven @ Monday, April 24, 2023 at 8:52 am:

    “Braverman looks like Sunak caricature in the cartoon.

    Do all people of Indian heritage look the same for British people like all Chinese look the same?”
    ==================

    Ven, you noticed that too? I actually thought it WAS a cartoon of (a cross-dressed) Sunak, until I looked up at the caption.


  21. MABWMsays:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 10:48 pm
    56:44! It’s not a honeymoon, it’s a marriage.

    (I can already hear the LNP shills carry on about how low the ALP’s primary vote is – @38% -a full 5% higher than the LNP, before the Green vote is factored in.)

    The Lars avatar, who attacks ALP from left, could say that ALP PV should be 50% like what Mark McGowan got in WA in last election and the 2PP should be closer to 70% for ALP. 🙂


  22. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, April 24, 2023 at 8:55 am
    Evan @ #41 Monday, April 24th, 2023 – 8:21 am

    What a complete wanker Tim Wilson is, he obviously hasn’t come to terms with Zoe Daniel beating him in 2022, hopefully she beats him again in 2025(I assume he’ll get preselection for Goldstein again).
    As for the seat of Robertson, Gordon Reid comes across as a very hard working MP, and he’s a rather good speaker in parliament too. C@t would know this better than me, but isn’t it true that Lucy Wicks doesn’t actually live on the Central Coast of NSW – she’s another person who comes across as a self-entitled Liberal, who thinks the world owes her a living.

    Her father was the Principal of a CC Happy Clapper school, so she has links, but after he was convicted of embezzling funds from the school that link became more tenuous as the family retreated to the North Shore. Though they obviously maintained their links to the Happy Clappers on the CC and the Liberal Party there as she got the nomination for Robertson to go up against Deb O’Neill. After she beat her I heard that Lucy bought a house up here but kept her kids at schools on the North Shore.

    C@tmomma
    She bought a holiday home like many well off people do these days.
    I know some very well off people who have holiday homes in CC and South coast.
    Don’t you know that Sydney is “Ghetto of rich people ” as per The Daily Telecrap?

  23. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, April 24, 2023 at 8:04 am
    Steve777,
    I’d go for this one:

    Maybe he was playing culture wars by trying to spread the lie that the member who replaced him disrespected Anzac Day.

    Also, he obviously has staunch supporters in the local RSL because he said he was asked by one of them to come along when they found out that Zoe Daniel wasn’t going to be there. Crumbs the lot of them.

    Good analysis C@t, born to rule bullies rarely go one-out, and have a back-up contingent of Hooray-Henrys to fall back on. Sadly, the RSL is not an especially woke (using the word in its positive and correct definition) and would be riddled with the remnants of the LNP. I imagine a curtly worded letter from the local member to the RSLs in the electorate might at least put them on notice.


  24. Oliver Suttonsays:
    Monday, April 24, 2023 at 6:06 am
    … or in the spirit of Norma Desmond in Sunset Boulevard:

    “Mr De Mille, I’m ready for my close-up.”

    This. Perfect anology. 🙂

    It appears that Liberals really really believe that current ALP government is a one-term government and Libs will come back roaring into power at next election. They just have to wait out like they did after 2007 lose.

  25. Like all good comics, Barry H was an excellent observer of people. His comedy reflected those observations and having grown up in the 30s and 40s saw enormous change in his world. Can we imagine another time when so much change occurs in a lifetime?
    It goes without saying that some of his output may not be viewed as kindly in more enlightened times but his is an impressive body of work and certainly worth preserving.

  26. When Dan Tehan, shadow Immigration minister, was interviewed and asked on ABC Newsbreakfast TV on whether he will vote ‘No’ on ‘Voice’referendum, he said ‘Yes’.

  27. Summary of today’s news (aka the Raw Prawn Patrol) …

    – Australia plans to cut spending on local defence capability because we need the money to pay for long range strike capabilities and imaginary nuclear submarines.

    – Australia can’t afford to increase payments to the less well off because we need the money to pay for the stage three tax cuts for the very well off.

    – Australia won’t reduce the extraction of fossil fuels because we need the tax revenue their windfall profits they generate, even though in reality we subsidize them rather than tax them.

    Australia lost a great comedian yesterday who ridiculed Australians mercilessly. Thank goodness we still have Labor to make us look suitably ridiculous.

  28. Thanks for the reading list, BK!

    Sean Kelly’s piece has one idea that provides a partial answer to why the cost of living pressures aren’t (yet) damaging Labor in the polls. Kelly writes about the Dutton’s support for the NO case on the Voice.
    It has tied the party to regressive social policy, will keep attention off the economy, while reinforcing the perception that Dutton’s strategy is simply to oppose things.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-problem-for-the-liberal-party-is-that-history-doesn-t-always-repeat-20230420-p5d1yp.html

    Irespective of the outcome of the referendum, Dutton has “shot himself in the foot”. (And his Liberal Party too.)

  29. From what I’ve seen of the defence review, it’s an improvement on both focus and cost effectiveness.

    Projects that help ‘liberate’ oil from people who worship the ‘wrong’ religion are getting scrapped.

    Projects that make invading australia costly and painful are getting prioritised.

    Focus is on mobility, which is appropriate for our geography.

    I’m here if you need a shoulder to cry on BW 😉


  30. Dog’s Brunchsays:
    Monday, April 24, 2023 at 9:12 am
    Like all good comics, Barry H was an excellent observer of people. His comedy reflected those observations and having grown up in the 30s and 40s saw enormous change in his world. Can we imagine another time when so much change occurs in a lifetime?

    The first and second decades of 21st century mainly due to Internet.

    IMO, Internet is as powerful as atomic/ nuclear energy, which when harnessed for good will benefit humanity but when used bad purposes will destroy the world.

  31. I mean, Wilson’s franking credits campaign was hugely influential in the 2019 election, they don’t have a lot of people who can actually point to a campaign they did that won votes – I think Wilson is very miffed to this day that Frydenberg sucked up all available resources in the area for his own doomed defence and left “saviour of 2019“Wilson to whistle in the wind against Zoe Daniel.

    He will absolutely seek preselection for 2025 unless convinced that a drubbing is coming that he doesn’t want to be associated with (he’s an entitled pillock but he’s not stupid).

  32. People were wanking on about a shortage of housing while Victoria was building little house on the hill side, little houses made of ticky tacky, as if there was no tomorrow. Given the rate at which suburbs were springing up one could only conclude the million homes stuff was nonsense. Houses were being built.

    It is all going to come to an end. The fixed price contracts entered into by builders, the supply problems and the turn-down engineered by the reserve bank is bringing builder after builder undone.

    Land sales are down. Building permits are down. If your a smart young kid are you going to put down a deposit on a build, if the outcome is going to be nothing more than a creditor in a bankruptcy.

    At the moment ” the young aren’t buying” is not about giving up, it’s about the young being smart. A little bit of honesty by the press would be very helpful.

  33. Ven says:
    Monday, April 24, 2023 at 8:48 am

    Ex-BBC said on ABC TV that whole of Britain is in mourning on Humphries death as if they lost one of their own.
    _____________________________

    Humphries was part of the great Aussie exodus of actors/artists and writers who fled to England, primarily Earls Court in the 1960s with the belief that if you wanted to be a success, best not to stay in Australia, probably the best example of the cultural cringe in action.

    Thank goodness its nothing like that now, and if you want to be a big success or film star you just go to the USA/Hollywood

  34. I see P1 is up and about with some selective facts for her anti labor snark.

    Regarding S3 and Defence spending, we await the details of exactly how Albo and Chalmers will handle the costs of these hot ScoMo legacy turds.

    We will get some more detail today regarding the realignment of defence spending. The big money for the AUKUS malarkey is pushed until well after 2030, and other choices appear to have been made on the basis of ‘cost neutrality’ to the overall trajectory of the defence budget (which is thus still slatted for big increases).

    P1 appears to be wrong in her assertion that the government will ‘cut local defence spending’ for a couple of reasons: firstly, from what has been stated thus far we should expect massive funding for local development and manufacturing of both missiles and drones; secondly we won’t know until later today – and perhaps not even then – how much local build content will go into the acquisition of more AWDs and Light Frigates: it may well be that there is a direct swap for the cut in offshore patrol vessels and future frigates, which the shipyards in Adelaide and Perth fully engaged in the new projects.

    As for S3: the main ‘sin’ is that the tax cuts are unfunded. The secondary ‘sin’ is the removal of the 37% rate for income between 120-180K. The government will have to face up to that somehow. We shall see how that all pans out in the budget.


  35. Arky says:
    Monday, April 24, 2023 at 9:37 am

    I mean, Wilson’s franking credits campaign was hugely influential in the 2019 election,


    Different Wilson’s

  36. mj says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 10:30 pm

    Presumably the downtick in Albanese’s personal ratings is due to lack of ambition on relieving poverty. Interesting how high One Nation’s vote is – appears Dutton isn’t too popular even amongst his supposed “base”. Suspect things will only get worse for him – even if this Government stumbles badly people have no faith in Dutton’s character or intelligence for the Opposition to capitalise on it. The LNP need to replace him with someone that can at least pretend to be likeable before the next election.
    ____________

    Clearly, the Dutton-led LNP is too woke, leaving true believers little option but to switch to ON.

    [Per Sky News polling analysis…]

  37. frednk says:
    Monday, April 24, 2023 at 9:39 am

    People were wanking on about a shortage of housing while Victoria was building little house on the hill side, little houses made of ticky tacky, as if there was no tomorrow. Given the rate at which suburbs were springing up one could only conclude the million homes stuff was nonsense. Houses were being built.
    ____________________________________

    Only trouble is the little houses all look just the same.

  38. It looks like the “Honeymoon” is still “coming to an end”. The fact that they’ve been saying this for the last 9 months makes me thing the “Honeymoon” was a world cruise rather than a weekend trip to Noosa.
    As for Tim Wilson, as an ex-serviceman the picture of him a few years ago holding his hand on his heart looking adoringly up at a flag was bad enough (as with all these pompous actions by politicians I find this particularly offensive, if Tim Wilson wants to earn my respect he should join the military and actually serve).
    As for arguing about who got to lay the wreath. It’s demonstrates where the mindset is, it’s not about the sacrifices of the servicemen / woman but the politics and optics.
    I suspect Tim Wilson’s alternative career prospects may be limited so getting back into what he feels is “his seat” is his one best option. I’ve got some news for him, I don’t think the Liberal party has a way back from the right wing Qld LNP and Victorian/NSW Christofacist brink.

  39. ‘Voice Endeavour says:
    Monday, April 24, 2023 at 9:27 am

    From what I’ve seen of the defence review, it’s an improvement on both focus and cost effectiveness.

    Projects that help ‘liberate’ oil from people who worship the ‘wrong’ religion are getting scrapped.

    Projects that make invading australia costly and painful are getting prioritised.

    Focus is on mobility, which is appropriate for our geography.

    I’m here if you need a shoulder to cry on BW ‘
    ———————————
    Why?
    It is the Greens and their mates the Liberals who will be shouting at the clouds.
    Defence spending is going up and not being halved. The ADF will gain some serious additional heft in stand off defence. The costs to potential invaders over the next half century will be maximized. Local industry will have some disruption but will be a net gainer. Flexible expeditionary projection will be improved by deployment of HIMARs, improved missile capacity, drone capacity and increased numbers of landing craft.

    I know Houston personally. The intellectual heft in the Review has Houston (and for that matter Smith) written all over it. The Government response has Albanese, Marles, Wong and Chalmers written all over it.

    The adults are in charge.

    Meanwhile, as if to demonstrate their combined sordid political ADD, Bandt and Dutton are blocking the construction of 30,000 affordable houses.

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