Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)

Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead returning to a height it last enjoyed in early September, although there is little movement on the primary vote.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead widening from 55-45 to 56-44, although Labor and the Coalition are unchanged on the primary vote at 38% and 33% respectively, with the Greens up one to 11% and One Nation down one to 7%. Both leaders’ personal ratings have softened, though from a substantially higher base in the case of Anthony Albanese, who is down three on approval to 53% and up two on disapproval to 37%, while Peter Dutton is down two to 33% and up four to 52%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 58-26 to 54-28. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1514.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,122 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)”

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  3. Benson polishing the Turd. 56-44 2PP. I will take that to the bank.

    BTW just returned from 10 days in the Middle Kingdom. Nervous at first – but no negative Aussie feelings. Back to the Land of Smiles in one piece. My VPN wouldn’t work and Poll Bludger is well blocked behind the Great Fire Wall so good to catch up.

    I trust all have been well here.

  4. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 9:47 pm

    The Australian headline is written for the proprietor.
    中华人民共和国
    Dearest C@t. What time at the Stamford on 21 May? Circular Quay correct? I take it a lunch get together? I’m excited to catch up with your good self and fellow bludgers!

  5. I seriously doubt this is true:

    After losing his virginity in his army barracks to actress Nellie Clifden, smuggled on-site with help from fellow officers, word got back to his parents. Prince Albert died not long later, and Victoria is said to have partly blamed his death on the stress of the impropriety of young Bertie

    Prince Albert would have judged his son a chip off the old block and been impressed, rather than horrified. He was, apocryphally, the inventor of this for Queen Victoria’s pleasure (and Pain 😉 ):

    https://www.healthline.com/health/prince-albert-piercing

  6. UpNorth,
    There you are! I thought the Thai heatwave had melted you! 😀

    Yes, Still at The Sir Stamford Whiskey Bar, at Circular Quay for lunch on Sunday the 21st of next month.

    I think we should get there a half hour after it opens and stay till they kick us out. I’ll start collecting names after May Day. Then make the booking a week or so before the day. 🙂

  8. Simon Benson also in the Australian
    “No sign of Labor losing its popular ascendancy
    After almost a year in office, the Albanese government remains not only dominant but showing no sign of losing its ascendancy.”

  10. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 9:56 pm

    UpNorth,
    There you are! I thought the Thai heatwave had melted you!

    Yes, Still at The Sir Stamford Whiskey Bar, at Circular Quay for lunch on Sunday the 21st of next month.

    I think we should get there a half hour after it opens and stay till they kick us out. I’ll start collecting names after May Day. Then make the booking a week or so before the day.
    中华人民共和国
    It’s in the diary cobber – be there with bells on.

    Yes bloody hot here. 38 in Bangkok today but up to 54 in some places when humidity is factored in. No sign of rain yet so I think El Nino is a defo. The pool this arvo. was however a delight!

  12. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 10:08 pm

    Upnorth,
    Great! You are name #1 on the list. I think we have something to celebrate, don’t you?
    中华人民共和国
    We certainly do mate! Them Tories will be so miserable after a top year by Albo and Team that you could dance the Pride of Erin on their bottom lips!

    I still have my election winnings and will throw them on the table for the bar. Might not cover 100% but I think we will have a decent drink.

  14. Presumably the downtick in Albanese’s personal ratings is due to lack of ambition on relieving poverty. Interesting how high One Nation’s vote is – appears Dutton isn’t too popular even amongst his supposed “base”. Suspect things will only get worse for him – even if this Government stumbles badly people have no faith in Dutton’s character or intelligence for the Opposition to capitalise on it. The LNP need to replace him with someone that can at least pretend to be likeable before the next election.

  16. ”After almost a year in office, the Albanese government remains not only dominant but showing no sign of losing its ascendancy.”

    In spite of the Australian’s and the broader Murdochracy’s “best” efforts…

  17. 56:44! It’s not a honeymoon, it’s a marriage.

    (I can already hear the LNP shills carry on about how low the ALP’s primary vote is – @38% -a full 5% higher than the LNP, before the Green vote is factored in.)

  18. Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 7:36 pm
    Mavis says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 7:31 pm

    One for the road:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doX2-qbx3tE
    ______________

    Didn’t realise Barnaby Joyce has been around so long
    …………………………………………………………………………………………
    98.6 says :
    Many a true word spoken in jest !

  22. C@tmomma says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 10:25 pm
    Upnorth,
    I chose The Whiskey Bar for a reason.

    If you’re going to spend money on booze, make it worth it!
    中华人民共和国
    Life’s too short to drink bad wine! Night all.

  23. Did Lars ghost write The Australian headline?

    I didn’t bother reading all the coronation stuff on the previous thread but I see neither did Newspoll’s survey group.

  24. Tim Wilson needs to move on with his life, he’s acting as if he’s an MP in exile and with desperate, self-serving behaviour as seen today is unlikely to return as one anytime soon.

  25. Before the Teals came along, poor Tim Wilson probably figured he’d be the member of Goldstein for three or four decades, eventually retiring after a lengthy stint as Prime Minister. As if he’d ever have to fight to hold his seat like those plebs in the marginals do.

  27. FTR – Prince Albert was a NOTORIOUS buzzkill. Shamed anyone who was seen as frivolous or fun, including Victoria when she first married him.

    The thing with Albert Edward (future Edward VII) He was horrified, because he was obsessed with portraying dour middle-class family values. So, whatever kinks he and Victoria had between them, it’s OK… a single prince tied up with an actress was INEXCUSABLE.

    It was also highly unlikely PA had a PA.

  29. If Tim had any convictions he would never have stood for the Division of Goldstein being an ex-IPA hack who is not suited to represent the interests of that seat. It’s good to see that people have shown that to have the word Liberal or Labor in front of your name is not necessarily good enough and expect you’ll just coast it in.

  30. Cripes, that really is pathetic behaviour from Tim Wilson.

    His excuse essentially being “Zoe Daniel isn’t here so that means that I’m the Member for Goldstein by default!” sounds like something out of a Brandon Rogers youtube video.

  31. ”
    sprocket_says:
    Sunday, April 23, 2023 at 7:26 pm
    A lineage which resulted in King Chucky.. will he do a Bertie?

    Edward VII isn’t the best known or most celebrated of British monarchs. The oldest son of Queen Victoria sat on the throne for only nine years due to her longevity, from 1901 to 1910. While he was a perfectly adequate king, in historical terms he is vastly overshadowed by his mother and his son, George V.

    However, there is one area in which he outdid everyone around him: Edward VII was, throughout his life, an extremely horny individual.

    After losing his virginity in his army barracks to actress Nellie Clifden, smuggled on-site with help from fellow officers, word got back to his parents. Prince Albert died not long later, and Victoria is said to have partly blamed his death on the stress of the impropriety of young Bertie (his first name was actually Albert, after his father). A wedding was arranged with Princess Alexandra of Denmark, and at 22 the future king was married.

    But he was also just getting started. While he and Alexandra got on very well, and eventually had five children, the prince had a roving eye. His duties involved a lot of travel, which he used to conceal numerous affairs, with varying degrees of success—his philandering earned him the nicknames “Dirty Bertie” and “Edward the Caresser”.

    He had affairs with a lot of well-known women of the time, including—deep breath—actress Sarah Bernhardt, Lady Randolph Churchill (Winston’s mother), Mary Cornwallis-West (whose mother had attempted to seduce Prince Albert),
    ………
    ………
    ”

    Is there a possibility that “Dirtie Bertie ” said to “Mary Cornwallis-West” mother “Mrs. Cornwallis-West you’re are trying to seduce me ”

    (A line which could have been copied in the move “The Graduate” – Mrs. Robinson you’re trying to seduce me”. 🙂

  32. Tom the first and best,
    I was joking re the sudden election.

    Anyway for some fun. Keep an eye on the physical presentation of News LTD journos. You can see which ones are starving for information. Their dress and bearing starts to slide down hill. Take PVO, wearing a hoody with a suit jacket, looks like he’s slinging dope. No one talks to him anymore. Damaged goods thanks to Christian Porter.

  33. “Former Liberal MP Tim Wilson has defended jointly laying a wreath set aside for his successor at an Anzac Day service in Melbourne’s southeast”

    In the spirit of Napoleon snatching the crown from the Pope and crowning himself.

    Who said that the Age of Entitlement is over?

  35. Not to mention wannabe member for Mayo, Princess Georgina Downer, usurping the actual local member, Rebekha Sharkie, to hand over a giant novelty cheque for a government grant.

  37. I regret to inform Simon Benson that (on the basis of this sole, unimpressive metric) Dutton is drowning, not waving. After almost a year, the trend is hardening, even Dutton’s base and supporters must see that.

    The OZ
    “ The only good news for Mr Dutton was an improvement in the head-to-head contest over who voters regard as making the better prime minister.
    The level of support for Mr ­Albanese in the job fell four points to 54 per cent, while those backing Mr Dutton rose two points to 28 per cent.”

  40. Confessions says:
    Monday, April 24, 2023 at 6:29 am
    Cronus:

    Yep
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-problem-for-the-liberal-party-is-that-history-doesn-t-always-repeat-20230420-p5d1yp.html
    ———————————————————————————-

    Hi Fess
    From his comments, Kelly could’ve been reading PB over recent weeks while he was on holiday. He sums up Dutton and the Libs well imo. This time it is different and their the only ones who haven’t understood it.

  41. mj @ #24 Sunday, April 23rd, 2023 – 11:44 pm

    Tim Wilson needs to move on with his life, he’s acting as if he’s an MP in exile and with desperate, self-serving behaviour as seen today is unlikely to return as one anytime soon.

    Ditto Lucy Wicks in Robertson. It’s that Liberal, Born to Rule, mentality. Utterly delusional.

    The statistic that probably is their guiding light is the one about how much they HAVE ruled since WW2. And, as one of the Couchies said on Insiders, they believe that Labor will screw up governing again and the leadership of the Coalition can force the issue. A la Tony Abbott.

    We’ve seen that movie before. Not to mention, this Coalition ain’t no Dam Busters.

  42. maybi tim willson could rejoin the ipa tony abott works for them now aalong with the ramzy centre i think his war memorial bord term is nelly finished and he will not be reappointed

  43. The Aston by-election has really shaken the press gallery out of their BAU approach to analysing federal politics.

  45. Can I just say, as a local who was deputised by the federal Labor MP for my seat to lay a wreath on ANZAC Day at our local memorial, that this excuse for his reprehensible behaviour, is absolute crap by Tim Wilson:

    Footage circulating on social media on Sunday afternoon appeared to show Daniel’s representative, a volunteer identified only as Peter, confronting Wilson after the wreath-laying in Beaumaris to say what occurred was “very inappropriate” and “ridiculous”.

    In the video, Wilson – who was there to lay a book at the cenotaph – fired back, saying: “The federal member for Goldstein isn’t at an Anzac Day service in her community.”

    As a former MP, Tim Wilson would know that most electorates have more than one ANZAC Memorial, and every RSL in the district has one, and the Local Member usually attends the wreath laying ceremony of the largest public memorial in the electorate and so deputises other local citizens to attend all the other ceremonies. So, for Tim Wilson to baldly say, well, the Local Member wasn’t here, so … and to imply that it was a dereliction of duty for Zoe Daniel is simply disingenuous absolute crap and he knows it! 😡

  46. unfortunately marles desidid to reappoint abott just like labor keeping in departments pezzulo and cathryn campbbell has pezzulo gotsome home affairsstuff he could releasebecause it makes little sence whiy labor is so relucdent to dismiss campbell and pezzulo despite him not being able to manage his department well like not telling his minister for 6 months that narou contract ran out

  48. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    FWIW here is Simon Benson’s effort to find a turd worth polishing from the latest Newspoll.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/voters-turn-away-from-anthony-albanese-and-peter-dutton-newspoll/news-story/59cb8dfb039f42d8a5301d6a53ac73a0?amp
    For the past month, Sean Kelly has been overseas, paying only occasional attention to politics. From that distance, he has been surprised at how clearly a single fact has stood out: the Liberal Party is in serious trouble.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-problem-for-the-liberal-party-is-that-history-doesn-t-always-repeat-20230420-p5d1yp.html
    According to Matthew Knott, the federal government will reveal a multibillion-dollar cost blowout from its stage three tax cuts in next month’s budget as it scrambles to find extra funding for single parents and increased rent assistance.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/government-to-reveal-tax-cut-cost-blowout-as-it-flags-some-increased-welfare-payments-20230423-p5d2lf.html
    Andrew Tillett writes that the Albanese government will spend billions of dollars to urgently build factories for the local production of American-designed missiles, as part of the Defence Force’s biggest shake-up in decades, to deter conflict with a rapidly militarising China.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/billions-to-fast-track-local-missile-production-in-defence-shake-up-20230423-p5d2l7
    And he writes that plans to build new armoured vehicles in Australia for the army will be gutted to pay for new missiles and stronger cybersecurity after a major military review uncovered a $42 billion budget hole and warned of “difficult” trade-offs for defence spending.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/army-vehicles-gutted-for-missiles-amid-42b-budget-hole-20230421-p5d279
    Amy Remeikis tells us what we know so far about the Defence Strategic Review.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/24/australias-defence-force-is-expected-to-get-its-biggest-overhaul-in-decades-heres-what-we-know-so-far
    Labor says its May budget is about balancing competing pressures but the government’s rejection of major tax reform leaves Jim Chalmers searching for more incremental measures, says Jennifer Hewett.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/labor-s-budget-balancing-act-20230423-p5d2lz
    According to Angela Macdonald-Sith and Jacob Greber, Labor wants to extend its controversial price cap on east coast gas producers but faces pressure to dilute its heavy-handed “reasonable pricing” rules, amid warnings of a deteriorating investment climate that will freeze new supply.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/labor-to-extend-12-gas-price-cap-with-exemptions-20230423-p5d2lc
    Experts believe the nation’s living standards and productivity performance are being harmed by the way the property sector is distorting business and consumer behaviour to the point that some two thirds of young Australians are giving up on the idea of home ownership.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/squeezed-out-of-the-australian-dream-two-thirds-of-young-people-are-giving-up-on-home-ownership-20230413-p5d07i.html
    After decades of neglect a housing accord could be the gamechanger Australia needs, say the Grattan Institute’s Brendan Coates and Joey Moloney.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/24/after-decades-of-neglect-a-housing-accord-could-be-the-gamechanger-australia-needs
    Nicholas Stuart pays tribute to the way Bill Shorten has pulled himself together after this devastating 2019 election loss and dedicated himself to get the NDIS back on track.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8168651/a-failed-opposition-leader-now-on-the-verge-changing-thousands-of-lives/?cs=14258
    Alan Kohler declares that if the RBA were a company, the governor would be out of a job.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2023/04/24/rba-chiefs-many-failures/
    Local defence companies are bracing for major cuts to orders of Australian-made naval vessels and infantry fighting vehicles as the federal government rapidly boosts the nation’s missile supplies in response to China’s military build-up. Matthew Knott tells us that today Defence Minister Richard Marles will end months of intense speculation about the future of the Australian Defence Force by releasing a declassified version of its defence strategic review, a landmark examination of the nation’s military assets and force posture.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/kick-in-the-guts-for-army-landmark-defence-review-to-create-winners-and-losers-20230423-p5d2mt.html
    Shane Wright says Australians have made the wrong choice about housing for the last 40 years.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australians-have-made-the-wrong-choice-about-housing-for-the-last-40-years-20230406-p5cyqn.html
    All diseases can be cured by faith and lumps in the breast “dissolve” following prayers: The SMH tells us about the terrifying church whose one-time pastor was linked to the death of four police in a truck crash. This outfit should be proscribed in every way possible. I find this article too difficult to read.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/raised-with-demons-how-the-potter-s-house-church-keeps-its-followers-under-control-20230410-p5cz9n.html
    And in a linked story, Perry Duffin reports that a Sydney trucking company and two executives admit they failed to protect the public after a drug-addled and fatigued driver killed four police in a horror crash outside Melbourne. A third executive is still fighting charges that could land him in prison if found guilty.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/sydney-execs-guilty-after-crash-kills-four-police-one-fights-charges-20230421-p5d2au.html
    Dutton is the right politician for the post-QAnon age: in fact, the radical right zeitgeist caught up with him. His decision to drum up (another) paedophilia crisis to stain the referendum on the Voice to parliament is both grotesque and on trend, says Lucy Hamilton.
    https://johnmenadue.com/grotesque-dutton-drums-up-another-pedophilia-crisis/
    NineFax tells us that long COVID is costing the Australian economy at least $5.7 billion a year as tens of thousands are left unable to work by the debilitating disease.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-can-t-be-ignored-the-illness-costing-australia-at-least-5-7b-a-year-20230404-p5cy3z.html
    Australia’s aged care industry has been accused of misleading the public about its finances, with analysis revealing one of Australia’s biggest providers recorded significant earnings and acquisitions last financial year, despite reporting a loss.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/23/australian-aged-care-providers-accused-of-crying-poor-to-lobby-for-government-funding
    If the issue of asylum seekers arriving by plane becomes a political football, a sensible policy solution becomes even more unlikely, writes Abul Rizvi who says the Coalition and Murdoch media distort the truth about asylum seekers.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/coalition-and-murdoch-media-distort-truth-about-asylum-seekers,17446
    The abolition of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal is a crucial part of Attorney General Mark Dreyfus KC’s integrity platform. In the last decade of Coalition governments it had become overwhelmed by partisan appointments, creating a bedlam of incompetence and politically-motivated decisions, writes Lucy Hamilton.
    https://theaimn.com/the-aat-abolishing-a-system-of-indefinite-torment/
    The parlous financial state of NSW’s embattled workers’ compensation insurer icare is so severe it has been slapped with a formal ministerial directive to cap urgently needed premium increases.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/minister-rejects-icare-premium-plea-caps-rises-at-8-percent-20230423-p5d2m2.html
    Power giant AGL has taken a major coal-fired unit offline for $92 million of maintenance to minimise the risk of faults straining the grid. It is carrying out two months of assessments, repairs and upgrades to improve the reliability of its Loy Yang A coal-fired generator in the Latrobe Valley, which generates 30 per cent of Victoria’s power but was forced offline for months last year due to electrical problems.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/agl-shuts-coal-unit-for-major-works-to-tackle-winter-breakdown-risks-20230423-p5d2kj.html
    French cosmetics juggernaut L’Oréal pounced on Aesop – Australia’s big skincare success story – in a record $4bn deal this year. Michael West tells the story of one man who took particular notice, and his fight to expose the use of toxic chemicals in beauty products.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/because-youre-worth-it-loreal-aesop-and-the-perils-of-the-beauty-myth/
    Nick Bonyhady writes that News Corp co-chairman Lachlan Murdoch’s battle against small news outlet Crikey is set to continue in a brewing dispute over an almost $600,000 pool of supporter funds after the media scion dropped his defamation litigation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/lachlan-murdoch-s-stoush-with-crikey-not-over-yet-20230423-p5d2lo.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Jim Pavlidis

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    Mark Knight

    Leak

    From the US









  49. This Tim Wilson story if correct, is emblematic of the LNP. They have such a sense of entitlement that all they have to do us front up and they will be eased through the democracies without the raindrops touching them. They will be the cause of rather than recipients of stress and anxiety. For years the LNP had the reputation of the better economic managers purely through the perception that being from a well endowed background you knew how to grow money. The murdochracy has been a crutch for them and fed into this hubris. I think the moment Josh Frydenberg blew the deficit to record highs was when Aussie saw right through this malarkey. After years of debt and deficit highjinks they were exposed as the real debt creators. The Libs will have a hard road back I’d think. The murdochracy has lost its teeth and even the perennial ” Shanahanigans”of the OZ are no longer dictating national opinion – that cats been belled. Mr Murdoch himself has been humiliated and once he’s gone I can see his loss making newspapers being offloaded. The Libs will be back in some form but I see a split between the money is everything brigade vs moral crusader rabbits and plenty of pain to come and no big daddy RM to ease the pain.

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