James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.
Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.
However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.
Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.
Socrates
You attempt to persuade that access to uni in Australia is a flat space is less than convincing.
My argument, buried in the above, is that we should be subsidizing poor people to go to university.
Rich people’s kids can pay some HECS.
Boerwar
You still didn’t answer my questions. I have no arguments with subsidising the poor going to Uni. But you are avoiding all the other social benefits.
I ask again, why the resentment? Did you go/not go? What industry do you work in? Do you think it subsidises tertiary education?
PS: Your suggestion that I was trying to suggest access to uni is a flat space is to me unconvincing. I was not trying to say that. I was speaking in overall terms. There are many aspects of uni administration and finance I would change if I could. It is a dog’s breakfast. But not overall funding or access. That is too low already IMO.
Socrates @ #1647 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 5:22 pm
This is probably why this industry had to be destroyed. Not only was it employing people who might otherwise be employed in digging stuff up and exporting it, it was also competing for government subsidies. Even worse, it had a better claim to them.
We are well shot of such a wasteful drain on our precious profit margins. We can import anything we need, including expertise. The world owes us.
yabba: “In medicine to graduate a doctor does years of work under supervision, before they are allowed to practise. ”
That’s part of the education that ALL medical professionals and academics must undertake in order to acquire the qualification. And to teach in it.
yabba: ” Psychology graduates have to get admitted into an honours year, then do a postgraduate degree, then do two years of closely supervised clinical work after their initial Bachelor of Science Psychology degree before being able to practise as a clinical psychologist. ”
Yet again, ALL professionally accredited psychology practitioners require endorsement from an academic with the qualification.
yabba: “the real world”
Maybe that’s you brah.
There are plenty of things that people learn when they do a job. What you’re doing however, is thinking your knowledge negates others. In ALL jobs you will have varying degrees of expertise. Someone even created a graph about the concept.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bell_Curve
But what the fuck would this guy know…
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Herrnstein
He was an academic.
‘Socrates says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 5:30 pm
Boerwar
You still didn’t answer my questions. I have no arguments with subsidising the poor going to Uni. But you are avoiding all the other social benefits.
I ask again, why the resentment? Did you go/not go? What industry do you work in? Do you think it subsidises tertiary education?
PS: Your suggestion that I was trying to suggest access to uni is a flat space is to me unconvincing. I was not trying to say that. I was speaking in overall terms. There are many aspects of uni administration and finance I would change if I could. It is a dog’s breakfast. But not overall funding or access. That is too low already IMO.’
—————————
What ‘resentment’?
I am a bit sick of middle class welfare and the strutting that goes with it: solar panel subsidies for those who own a house to put them on. EV subsidies for those who can afford a new EV. Free uni courses and the benefits that go with it to those who are already in a strong position compared to those who miss out. And so on and so forth.
A large financial value of university education goes direct to the individual. Those who, for one reason or another, cannot go to unis subsidize this. Why should those who benefit directly and personally not tip some HECs back into the kitty?
I felt really sorry for some of the international students I met during my Uni days. There was this Chinese kid who could barely speak or write English paying a fortune to do a Master’s in Creative Writing, and the poor guy was completely in over his head. Allowing him into that degree was blatant exploitation on the university’s part.
We all know that a large number of foreign students use the university route to bypass normal barriers to gaining Australian residency.
BTW for the record I am not an academic. I have done some lectures in the past, but never worked full time as an academic. Frankly I make more money at my day job as an engineer, working shorter hours than the academics I know have to work. The image of the ivory tower academic is as out of date as the image of the pampered student.
My niece recently graduated from a double degree in Law and Economics with First Class Honours and has a job with a law firm, now working to become a solicitor. She has worked really hard and I’m proud of her. When I did engineering and then economics in the 1980s the costs were so much less, and rent so much less, that I could pay the fees off (plus cost of living) while still studying from part time (undergrad) or full time (degree two) jobs I was doing at the same time. Whereas my niece had part time jobs all the way through that were barely enough to pay the rent. She now has a HECS debt >$60K. She now has a good income, but still only around the average salary. She will be paying a high tax burden for a long time.
Lets stop anyone here over 50 kidding themselves that the young of today at uni are somehow being subsidised more than their parents generation were. It is sadly quite the opposite.
Boerwar
I am a bit sick of middle class welfare and the strutting that goes with it: solar panel subsidies for those who own a house to put them on. EV subsidies for those who can afford a new EV. Free uni courses and the benefits that go with it to those who are already in a strong position compared to those who miss out. And so on and so forth.
_____
I feel your anger. And of course, you support the S3 tax cuts for the wealthy. Carry on.
nath: “logic”
We clearly need more guns.
Nath:
I’m also rather surprised to learn Beorwar is this passionate about the redistribution of wealth.
Boerwarsays:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 5:40 pm
We all know that a large number of foreign students use the university route to bypass normal barriers to gaining Australian residency.
—————————
Disgraceful right wing comment. Racist in fact.
Asha says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 5:56 pm
Nath:
I’m also rather surprised to learn Beorwar is this passionate about the redistribution of wealth.
_____
I daresay it’s not about the redistribution of wealth. I would suggest it’s about ‘elites’ which in the higher education sector means ‘Greens’.
The Greens draw the most support from those with advanced degrees. The inner city elites, aka ‘Greens’ are the target of this Khmer Rouge style campaign from our octogenarian friend.
‘S. Simpson says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 5:57 pm
Boerwarsays:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 5:40 pm
We all know that a large number of foreign students use the university route to bypass normal barriers to gaining Australian residency.
—————————
Disgraceful right wing comment. Racist in fact.’
=======================
Are you seriously telling me that this is not the case? It has nothing to do with race, BTW, but nice try.
Pi @ #1277 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 5:34 pm
Completely as expected, from you. My contention is that many academics proceed from initial Bachelors degree, to Masters, to research PhD, to lecturer/researcher, and onward, without ever being qualified, as a result of supervised work in the non-academic world, to be effective, productive employees in that non-academic world. The longer they spend in the rarefied world of academia, which bears almost no relation to the ‘real world’, the less likely are they to be able to make such a transition.
My experience as a visiting lecturer in my particular fields of expertise at three Sydney universities has confirmed my views. I give presentations on the practical applications of various Operations Research techniques to senior engineering students, and MBA classes.
You have provided no coherent rebuttal of my contention, and I certainly do not expect that you will.
Foreign students in 2021 = 570,000.
Percentage who gain residency = 16%
Unless someone either has parents who are rich enough to financially support them for 3-4 years or has access to a time-turner, I’m not sure it’s even possible to be a well-off university student in this economic climate. There just isn’t enough time in the day.
‘Socrates says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 5:49 pm
BTW for the record I am not an academic. I have done some lectures in the past, but never worked full time as an academic. Frankly I make more money at my day job as an engineer, working shorter hours than the academics I know have to work. The image of the ivory tower academic is as out of date as the image of the pampered student.
My niece recently graduated from a double degree in Law and Economics with First Class Honours and has a job with a law firm, now working to become a solicitor. She has worked really hard and I’m proud of her. When I did engineering and then economics in the 1980s the costs were so much less, and rent so much less, that I could pay the fees off (plus cost of living) while still studying from part time (undergrad) or full time (degree two) jobs I was doing at the same time. Whereas my niece had part time jobs all the way through that were barely enough to pay the rent. She now has a HECS debt >$60K. She now has a good income, but still only around the average salary. She will be paying a high tax burden for a long time.
Lets stop anyone here over 50 kidding themselves that the young of today at uni are somehow being subsidised more than their parents generation were. It is sadly quite the opposite.’
————————————————————
Who said anything about being subsidized more?
BTW, using the first couple of years of income as the basis for a lifetime comparison is hardly statistical.
Getting those educations is a hard barrier BW. Education systems aren’t part of a zero sum game. It’s both unnecessary to implicitly think there’s a choice between a well educated polity and race, and almost always leads to a miscommunication.
More educated people from anywhere are welcome in oz cuz this benefits everyone. If we train em, even better.
Robert French and Kenneth Hayne at the Voice parliamentary committee today.
Politely dealing with Dutton talking points according to The Guardian.
Will any other media report it?
Will Murdoch’s hatchet mob call them Labor stooges?
Asha says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 6:07 pm
Unless someone either has parents who are rich enough to financially support them for 3-4 years or has access to a time-turner, I’m not sure it’s even possible to be a well-off university student in this economic climate. There just isn’t enough time in the day.
_________
There are some:
https://www.colleges.unimelb.edu.au/
‘Pi says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 6:11 pm
Getting those educations is a hard barrier BW. Education systems aren’t part of a zero sum game. It’s both unnecessary to implicitly think there’s a choice between a well educated polity and race, and almost always leads to a miscommunication.
More educated people from anywhere are welcome in oz cuz this benefits everyone. If we train em, even better.’
———————–
Not a problem with your POVs here.
Looking at some US polling, Dotard is down to 25% favourability? Not a strong starting point for a known contender 18 months out from the 2024 election…
And Morning Joe is crowing (with the unbiased Jen Psaki)
https://youtu.be/N4ha2_11WAM
Boerwar @ #1541 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 1:26 pm
Your usage of the word would appear to brand a majority of Australians as “elites”. Home ownership is the norm, by a 2:1 margin. Having a university degree is (very narrowly, and very recently) the norm. Driving an EV isn’t the norm yet, but it will be probably within the next 10 years.
Those things aren’t “elite” aspirations, they’re mainstream. And they are good for the country, yes.
University should be free for any citizen who wants to attend and get a degree. Just like healthcare (but without all the caveats that healthcare has). Being poor shouldn’t be an impediment. Nor should being rich.
Completely my experience Soc re: academics. I’ve known many over the decades from lots of different places. What I’ve noticed is that with every level they advance, their workload goes up. From student to professor. I’m a pretty clever guy, but my gal shits all over me with regard to intelligence. Objectively. It’s delightfully humbling. But she works hard man. All her peers do too. Always have. All the ones I’ve met. Much harder than me now, that’s for sure, and no one calls me a lazy man.
Insiders on Sunday morning, special guest is Jacinta Price – oh goodie, will Speers give her a soft interview or will he go in hard?
“My argument, buried in the above, is that we should be subsidizing poor people to go to university.”
It is very buried among all the sweeping statements about elitists and subsidies, yes. So buried it suffocated before you brought it out.
I don’t think there’s objections here to anything which improves equality of opportunity for the disadvantaged. Indeed, a number of us talked about how useful university education is for children from poor backgrounds to improve their position, only for you to shit on about elites like you’re John Howard in an election campaign.
I sort of agree with yabba that universities often don’t prepare students well for the real world. Or at least anecdotally my experience was that very little of actually practising law is taught at university. However, without the background knowledge of law and legal thinking gained at uni, you couldn’t pick up the rest on the job. It’s both inadequate AND necessary at the same time!
Nath
Are watching the footie ?
A bit of cloak and dagger stuff:
”A NSW man connected with Australian government departments and institutions has been charged with foreign interference after allegedly sharing information related to national security to individuals the AFP say work for a foreign intelligence service.
The man, 55, was arrested at a residence in Bondi on Friday…”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nsw-man-arrested-for-allegedly-sharing-national-security-intelligence-20230414-p5d0mp.html
An Australian man has been charged with a foreign interference offence by federal police after an investigation from the nation’s top spy agency. The Australian national, who normally lives and operates a business overseas, recently returned to Australia before he was arrested at a Bondi residence on Friday.
The AFP alleges the man was contacted by an individual, purporting to be from a think tank, via social media while he was offshore and made arrangements for him to meet with their representatives.
It is alleged that on a number of occasions the man met with two individuals, known to him as “Ken” and “Evelyn”, who offered the man money to obtain information about Australian defence, economic and national security arrangements, plus matters relating to other countries.
It is alleged that on a number of occasions the man met with two individuals, known to him as “Ken” and “Evelyn”, who offered the man money to obtain information about Australian defence, economic and national security arrangements, plus matters relating to other countries.
He allegedly met with two people known as “Ken” and “Evelyn” who offered the man money to obtain information about Australian defence, economic and national security arrangements, plus matters relating to other countries. Police say he compiled a number of reports for the individuals and received payment for those reports. The AFP will allege “Ken” and “Evelyn” work for a foreign intelligence service and are undertaking intelligence collection activities. He is charged with one count of reckless foreign interference, contrarty to section 92.3 of the Criminal Code Act 1995. The maximum penalty for this offence is 15 years imprisonment.
The law students I encounter through mooring, mentoring and work seem pretty worldwise to me
Boerwar @ #1657 Friday, April 14th, 2023 – 5:40 pm
As I said earlier – Australia can import anything we really need . Even intelligent, educated Australians. The world owes us.
”
Boerwarsays:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 6:06 pm
Foreign students in 2021 = 570,000.
Percentage who gain residency = 16%
”
NSW Premier wants want International students to make Australia their first choice.
https://amp-macrobusiness-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.macrobusiness.com.au/?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.macrobusiness.com.au%2F2023%2F04%2Fnsw-budget-pulled-under-by-ponzi-infrastructure%2F&usqp=mq331AQGsAEggAID#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16814592203707&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.macrobusiness.com.au%2F2023%2F04%2Fnsw-budget-pulled-under-by-ponzi-infrastructure%2F
NSW Budget crushed under ponzi infrastructure
From the article: “Minns is another rabid supporter of mass immigration, saying in last month’s election speech that NSW businesses needed to have “access to world-class skilled labour. And that’s where I think we can really step up”.
“They need to know that the NSW government of the day is open for business and that we want people to come to Australia”.
Minns also said a Labor state government would support federal government plans to attract skilled migrants, while persuading international students to make NSW their first choice.”
Russians KIA Apr 13: 500
Total Russians KIA: 181,090
Daily average Russians KIA: 437.4
Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/14/7397822/
Ukrainian civilians killed Apr 13: 3
Ukrainian civilians injured Apr 13: 8
Ukrainian cities/towns/villages attacked Apr 13: 102
Ukrainian oblasts attacked Apr 13: 8
https://kyivindependent.com/3-killed-8-injured-as-russia-attacks-8-ukrainian-regions/
[#1 today]
I’ve missed the bulk of the academic/HECS discussion today. Just to say – as a Whitlam freebie participant, I had the best part of 10 years uni undergrad/postgrad at nil cost. Other than student union fees of course.
Now if only one could parlay that into a Defined Benefit Pension…
I do feel sorry for the young of today, who don’t have the generational benefit of housing deposits paid and HECS debts covered.
Enough Already, I’m hearing that the Wagner Group forces have been all but wiped out. They used to have 90km of the front assigned, and it is down to 5km today – in Bakhmut.
If nothing else, we will have a cleaner fight with the coming UKR offensive.
Sprocket
Are you sitting in the front of class by Uni Year 10?
Asha says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 5:25 pm
Apparently I’m an “elite” now. Cool!
_________________________
I knew sooner or later you would be unmasked!
”
Ashasays:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 6:07 pm
Unless someone either has parents who are rich enough to financially support them for 3-4 years or has access to a time-turner, I’m not sure it’s even possible to be a well-off university student in this economic climate. There just isn’t enough time in the day.
”
What I don’t understand about “rich” parents is that they can educate their kids through private schools paying about$30000/ year and upwards but won’t pay for Uni education? Am I wrong in saying that nath?
I trust everyone has had a look at the Vanity Fair feature on Old Man Murdoch.
I like penny pinching stories of the rich just as much as Sprocket fantasizes about ‘feeding’ obese conservatives in his ‘pens’.
This is a ripper:
According to sources, Murdoch and Hall quarantined in Bel Air without any staff for months. Hall bought robot vacuums to clean the floors, baked sourdough bread, and cooked simple meals of roast chicken, leg of lamb, and vegetarian pasta. During the day, Murdoch watched the stock market and took Zoom calls while Hall took online courses in UC Davis’s winemaking program. (Hall told friends Murdoch wanted her to do it so he could write off $3 million of vineyard expenses as long as she worked 500 hours a year on winemaking.)
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2023/04/rupert-murdoch-cover-story
Shellbell
Y10 was post grad Computing at Charles Sturt. Can’t remember much apart from the awesome parties at the Bathurst campus…
nath, I have bookmarked the Vanity Fair for later.
Rupert always struck me as one who would work the system for personal aggrandisement whilst simultaneously pumping up the lumpens whilst shafting the ruling class.
A life well lived
Just a reminder for the whole nation to unite and tell Dutton to GFY.
What someone who ACTUALLY knows about child protection has to say:
https://www.snaicc.org.au/media-release-statement-from-snaicc-ceo-catherine-liddle-in-response-to-comment-by-federal-opposition-leader-peter-dutton-in-alice-springs-yesterday/
Just on the Whitlam freebies
4 years in Sydney Uni sandstone G8 – incredibly useful for critical thinking and research basics
4 years part time at UTS – most useful for practical skills in Economics, Law, Accounting, Computing
2 years post grad at Charles Sturt – party time
To be fair, the investment of the late great EGW has been repaid multiple fold in taxes from a productive citizen.
We should be looking again for this nation and capability building policy.
“Necessary but not sufficient” is the expression. Like your knife, if you’re trapped in Wonderland.
Geetroit says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 7:01 pm
Just a reminder for the whole nation to unite and tell Dutton to GFY.
What someone who ACTUALLY knows about child protection has to say:
https://www.snaicc.org.au/media-release-statement-from-snaicc-ceo-catherine-liddle-in-response-to-comment-by-federal-opposition-leader-peter-dutton-in-alice-springs-yesterday/
__________________________________________
The rates of sexual abuse in remote communities especially against children are off the charts.
yabba: “the less likely are they to be able to make such a transition. ”
Sigh… an academic that leaves that system gets paid twice as much to work half as hard. Maybe it wasn’t like that in the 60s, but I’ve never seen that. I can’t reconcile your assertions with my experience over decades.
But, you know, bell curve. Maybe you got a couple of Leonard Lawrence analogues.. Sux2bu brah. Side hustle suggestion; make an app that recommends where not to go.
sprocket_ says:
Friday, April 14, 2023 at 6:51 pm
Shellbell
Y10 was post grad Computing at Charles Sturt. Can’t remember much apart from the awesome parties at the Bathurst campus…
______________________
Do a little blow?
On HECS, you’re better off looking at improving student housing options for country students from lower socio-economic backgrounds so they have half a chance at getting their degree. Instead of having to pay off their HECS debt anyway, but on a lower wage after the university system chews them up and spits them out without a degree.