James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.
Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.
However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.
Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.
“… a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question …”
Par for the course for IPA ‘research’.
Cronus says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 5:56 am
Dr Doolittle
“ The political legacy of Putin’s butchery in Russia will be delayed, because of the pervasive fear gripping the whole society. This is so pervasive that it affects the way people now grieve sudden deaths not caused by the war. See:
https://russiandissent.substack.com/p/life-on-the-banks-of-war?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=844709&post_id=111572971&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
‘Life on the Banks of War’ by Anna Ochkina (31 March)”
—————————————————————————-
Nice pickup, thanks for posting, it was well worth the read, genuine food for thought. It also seems that due to both fear and propaganda, Russians may never know the truth behind the war but may forever believe a lie.
Thanks William for the really interesting post on the voice polling
Personally, I think it’s a bit soon to have too much faith in the voice polling, merely because the enabling legislation for the referendum hasn’t passed yet and a date hasn’t been set. Once the referendum is an actual thing that is happening, I think the unengaged portions of the electorate will start to form opinions and we’ll Start to get a better idea of the voice’s prospects
Through the fishing community I know quite a number of basically apolitical people, including a few indigenous people who have legitimately never really heard about the voice and don’t have an opinion one way or the other. The more politically engaged people I know are all in favour
I think if all the various civil and business groups follow through with their promised vocal and active support for the voice then it should pass quite easily, like marriage equality. Aside from the LNP and associated flunkies like the IPA , I can’t see who will prominently stick their neck out publicly for no.
My 2 cents anyway
“ The leader of the Young Liberals has said he is “open” to an indigenous Voice to Parliament. President of the Federal Young Liberals Dimitry Chugg-Palmer made the comments when asked whether the junior organisation would stray from the Coalition’s stance on voting no to the Voice.
Mr Chugg-Palmer said that his organisation did not have a formal position however there were many inside of it who wanted to vote yes while speaking on QandA.”
Just another small crack in Dutton’s Liberal Party unification process.
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/current-affairs/young-liberals-leader-says-he-is-open-to-voting-yes/news-story/f2d30bb45a50c9fb6e539723f1e3c5eb
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Yet another day of slim pickings.
Former president Donald Trump has been indicted, but it is America – with its fragile hold on democracy – that is on trial, writes Peer Hartcher who says that if liberty is to survive, the world needs a democratic America.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/if-liberty-is-to-survive-the-world-needs-a-democratic-america-20230410-p5cz7p.html
The nation’s biggest banks and financial services companies will be summoned to a series of unprecedented war-gaming exercises to test how they would respond to debilitating cyberattacks that could upend the lives of tens of millions of Australians, reports Matthew Knott.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/consider-what-damage-could-be-caused-government-launches-cyber-war-games-for-major-banks-20230410-p5czbj.html
The record-breaking boom in mortgage refinancing is expected to gain even more momentum in the months ahead as a $141 billion wave of fixed-rate home loans expires, forcing banks to compete aggressively for customers, explains Clancy Yeates.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/banks-brace-for-refinancing-avalanche-as-cheap-fixed-rate-loans-expire-20230406-p5cyog.html
Despite the political acrimony over the Voice referendum, what’s most striking is the similarities between the positions of the Coalition and the Labor government, writes Anne Twomey.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/despite-the-rancour-coalition-s-voice-policy-is-very-similar-to-labor-s-20230410-p5cz7t.html
Crispin Hull reckons Peter Dutton’s stance on the Voice to Parliament referendum itself is the ‘Canberra Voice’. In short, he says, Dutton’s lack of judgement on the Voice is much more likely to secure his place in history as the first leader of a major party to unsuccessfully oppose a referendum than for him to ever be prime minister.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/8153422/duttons-reverse-doublespeak-will-land-him-on-wrong-side-of-history/?cs=14264
Peter Dutton has taken the right decision on the proposed constitutionally enshrined Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander voice. Everybody is beating up on Dutton in the latest episode of a very unattractive Australian habit of let’s all kick the designated villain, whines Greg Sheridan.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/forget-the-haters-dutton-right-to-oppose-voice/news-story/37398fec58a9bf5bef387e9a1a979546?amp
In the wake of the Aston by-election and, more importantly, last year’s federal election, the Liberal Party could easily be misled into dismissing the “teals” as a sneaky Labor/Greens front, argues Richard Willington.
https://johnmenadue.com/perpetuating-a-myth-about-the-source-of-the-teals-vote/
Liquidators for the collapsed construction company Porter Davis say they have rejected approaches from potential buyers, leaving the construction of 1,700 dwellings in limbo. The announcement is the latest blow for thousands of customers of one of Australia’s largest homebuilders, which collapsed less than two weeks ago after it was unable to find a financial backer to fill a $20m funding hole amid pandemic-induced rising construction costs.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/10/porter-davis-liquidators-unable-to-find-suitable-buyer-to-take-over-building-of-1700-homes
Can a Prime Minister use a Cabinet reshuffle to sweep government dirt under the carpet? That’s a question now before the Federal Court in a case which will draw out whether Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus KC is a leader who supports transparency, or just another politician interested, first and foremost, in protecting his patch. Rex Patrick explains.
https://michaelwest.com.au/rex-v-the-a-g-will-labor-keep-liberal-dirt-under-the-carpet/
The Defence Department is squeezing its maintenance and operating budgets for warships and aircraft to free up billions of dollars, sparking alarm over reduced availability of weapons at a time of rising regional tensions with China, writes Andrew Tillett.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/defence-budget-in-the-firing-line-to-pay-for-new-weapons-20230406-p5cyjr
The culture within the Australian army’s special forces will be reviewed regularly in the wake of the Brereton inquiry into alleged war crimes, a new document reveals. Daniel Hurst reports that the Australian defence force is also updating its respite policy to ease pressure on individuals after the inquiry found an overreliance on special forces in Afghanistan provided too little time between deployments.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/11/culture-of-australian-special-forces-to-be-regularly-reviewed-in-wake-of-brereton-inquiry-report-reveals
“Republicans are a mess right now, and voters know it. Does the party?”, wonders Moira Donegan.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/apr/10/republican-party-2024-divided
A 23-year-old used a rifle to kill four people — including a close friend of the governor — Monday at the Louisville bank where he was an employee, authorities said. The NRA will describe it as a Human Resources issue. America is f****d.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/gunman-neutralised-after-mass-shooting-in-louisville-bank-building-20230411-p5czew.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
Peter Broelman
Matt Golding
Andrew Dyson
Spooner
From the US
Again, just for you, C@t.
The irony from someone writing in a News Ltd publication!
Thanks BK
Clearly Dutton is struggling, the wrong messenger with the wrong message.
Cronus says
Nice pickup, thanks for posting, it was well worth the read, genuine food for thought. It also seems that due to both fear and propaganda, Russians may never know the truth behind the war but may forever believe a lie.
Agree, the Russian people as I’ve outlined before have all the behaviours of victims of an abusive relationship. Their history is littered with despots and maniacs that have used and abused them, sucked the life and substance out of the country and yet if you listen to their music , there is so much depth of feeling across the emotional spectrum that it gives hope they may yet prevail.
Politico admits that it’s the norm in France and other European countries for the govt to pre-check how the media is quoting the President
Govt checks the quotes, and removes whatever they feel is inconvenient
But remember that these countries get highest marks in press freedom
Did Morrison staff do something like above?
Poles are very happy with the state of their country’s relationship with Ukraine:
Very good: 23.4%
Good: 56.1%
Bad: 4.7%
Very bad: 2.7%
No opinion: 13.1%
https://www.rp.pl/spoleczenstwo/art38289171-sondaz-niemal-80-proc-polakow-ocenia-relacje-z-ukraina-dobrze-i-bardzo-dobrze?ref=kyivindependent.com
Continued Polish goodwill is vital for Ukraine to be experiencing, both for material and morale, so this is excellent news, nearly 14 months into this invasion.
I wonder if there is any other country on Earth which Moscow can point to, with similar levels of popular goodwill towards them?
Edit: I mean, where such an opinion poll could credibly be said to honestly measure actual public opinion.
sheridon is one of the few dlp types left poor dutton until aston the msm were triying to find any excuse to attack labor so chug palmer the yung liberal federal and nsw president until the election los wasa senyor advisor to Matt kean wonder what kean will do now given he does not want to be nsw oppposition im sure the act and wa yung liberals will back dutton there president is a sazelja allie he aparetntly still runs act liberals
You’d hope they would
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/grand-jury-indicts-mother-6-year-old-boy-shot-virginia-teacher-rcna79000
The SmearStralian has an ‘Exclusive’, the possibly a Queenslander more disliked than Peter Dutton is about to throw his large body into the Voice ring.
Clive Palmer will be campaigning for No.
Please let it be so – and I hope Big Gina shows her hand openly, and not just via her plaything TheIPA.
With Rupert, Clive and Gina supporting No, the Billionaires vote is locked in.
Voice threatens to muzzle families: Palmer
Billionaire mining magnate Clive Palmer is considering entering the referendum campaign for the No case against an Indigenous voice to parliament.
Clive Palmer’s support for the No Campaign sits nicely along him suing Australia for $300b – because he was refused access to WA during the pandemic, and the Commonwealth allowed it.
And Christian Porter is doing the legal work for him – could there be a bigger conflict of interest for an ex-Commonwealth Attorney General?
BK,
Sorry but I don’t find you pointing the bigoted Gary Varvel cartoon at me every day amusing. In fact, I find it distasteful.
Is it any wonder this blog is fast becoming another Boys Own Blog? Humiliating women for a larf. How originalement. 😐
And in signs of the deteriorating relations at the top of the NSW Liberal government, they are all now dumping the dirt in each other..
In Perrottet land, it is alleged the hyperactive Kean shut down, leaving the premier to try to save a drowning government almost on his own.
“Dom was functioning as his own treasurer into the campaign,” says a former adviser. “There were not many ideas coming from Kean.”
Listen to Kean loyalists, and Perrottet allowed his office to be taken over by Scott Morrison alumni, whose main interest in the treasurer was ordering him around like a poodle.
“Those Morrison guys were f—ing out of control,” says one. “We didn’t know whether we were coming or going.”
After offering to highlight problematic Labor promises, Kean was told by Perrottet’s office he was needed to do “pre-poll in teal seats”. Which meant standing in the rain handing out pamphlets to bemused voters.
Insiders say the association went bad like a bank: gradually, then rapidly. Some pin down the turning point on February 9 and 10, just as the state was starting to take notice of the election campaign.
On the morning of the 9th, a Thursday, Perrottet debated Labor leader Chris Minns for the first time of the campaign. In front of 2GB radio celebrity Ben Fordham, Perrottet was pumped-up; aggressive. Minns was typically careful; persistent.
The premier ripped into a Minns suggestion that government-owned business dividends could pay for expensive new transport. “The dividends would pay for a $16 billion infrastructure project?” he said.
Perrottet sounded like he was laughing at his opponent, a rare style for him. Fordham then asked Perrottet to answer a question from Minns. What else would he sell?
“Progress wasn’t made by taking things off the table,” Perrottet said.
That afternoon, Perrottet flew 300 kilometres to Taree, where he was a guest of deputy premier Paul Toole for the Nationals’ campaign launch. Back in Sydney, the next morning, Kean decided to speak to the ABC’s Sydney radio station.
Predictably, Kean was asked if he would sell Sydney Water. “No, course not,” he said. “That’s just ridiculous.”
It sounded like the treasurer and premier had different positions on asset sales. In Taree, a member of the premier’s staff received a text from a journalist listening in. “This is a train wreck,” it said.
https://www.afr.com/politics/liberal-party-war-dom-was-functioning-as-his-own-treasurer-20230404-p5cxvm
Is Dutton suggesting we should move to 2 tiers of government, Local and Regional? Or is that only for Black people because a Black federal body can’t be trusted to represent fairly and without corruption?
It opens up some interesting ideas. The Business Council of Australia should be forced to break up into numerous small groups and not allowed to cooperate. We could break up Newscorp while we are at it. Move on to think tanks. They should all leave the federal pollies alone and just stand on soap boxes in small towns spouting their pov.
Or, to be kinder to Dutton, perhaps he is merely keen on the local and regional representation because it will be out of sight and mind. We could call it the Silent Voice.
or maybi perotit lacked support because his closist allie Damian tudehope was forced to resign mid campaign due to his shares in trans urban which owned toles plus kean would have been anoyed when of his closist mates his former senyor advisor peter poulos in upper house wasdropped after his work to discredit robyn preston perottit initialy backed poulos evry one makes before demanding he be susbendid wonder what kean will do now
how is christian porter allowed to represent palmer i am prity sure he was aterney general at that time and desided to join palmer until morrison and cash steped in and realised it was a bad ide
Good morning, all.
Thank you, BK.
3
light white clouds
zephyr
spr
Not a lot of love in Larsland?
Thank you to William for analysis of where the Voice polling is at.
Palmer could spend millions on an ad campaign and do real damage to the Voice.
Morning all. Thanks BK. Greg Sheridan’s article is not only irrelevant but also hypocritical. Where was Sheridan when Newscorp treated Julia Gillard “Juliar” as not only the designated villain but the denigrated woman?
The criticism of Dutton has been confined to his policy decisions and shadow appointments amidst an obvious Liberal factional war. Those are legitimate political topics.
The criticism has not extended to Dutton’s personal life, even though he has a few vulnerabilities there on the financial front. Sheridan’s article is rubbish, and you have to wonder who ordered him to write it? Murdoch protecting the asset vale of his property?
Porter representing Palmer? Gratis via Quid pro quo blind trust?
William
“ entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year.”
Thanks for the lead in article which was informative on Voice polling. I have a suggestion for a small piece of analysis which might be of interest in MSM.
Opinion polling copped quite a bit of criticism, some fair, some unfair, after the 2019 Federal election. Obviously pollsters made corrections after that.
Since then, to my perception, there has been a marked improvement in polling accuracy, despite a comparatively volatile electorate and complexities like third party Teals drawing large vote shares. The last five State or Federal elections all seem to have been within 1-2% of major pollsters last polls.
I would be curious to see some analysis of this. The industry appears to have taken a step forward.
UK Cartoons:
Peter Schrank on #RishiSunak #KeirStarmer
Ben Chilton on Easter reflections and local elections
Patrick Blower on #KeirStarmer #LabourParty
Brighty: Sir Keir Starmer’s most recent hypocrisy has sparked uproar from both Tories and Labour lefties
Peter Schrank on #Easter #EasterEggs
Graeme Keyes on #GoodFridayAgreement
Nicola Jennings on #SteveBarclay and the junior doctors’ strikes
#weatheronPB
Blank sky covers all,
and rules the lonely moon,
in total stillness.
Socrates @ #26 Tuesday, April 11th, 2023 – 8:06 am
You might be interested in the Australian Polling Council. Perhaps they’ve had an effect.
https://www.australianpollingcouncil.com/
Yes Lars, regarding AE I’ve had my suspicions about him for some time now.
If I drop some privileged information here, like others I don’t name drop or try to impress with antidotes of bumping into him, her, this person, that person etc etc. if I hear one more story about lunch with hawkey, MLC heavies, back room heavies or accidentally almost running over the NSW treasurer-elect I’ll faint lol.
He just comes across to me as someone trying to impress with big castlereagh st and sussex street stories.
How many times has he been passed over at the annual bar committees that evaluate the QC candidates?.
I know you and c@t have issues but when I read AE’s attempted insult of her because she is just a “booth captain” it was the last straw for me and and told me everything I need to know about such h an entitled character.
Lars as you would know from your side of the spectrum booth captains, volunteers and the rank and file are what make the parties. His type represent everything that is wrong with both orgs to be honest and need to be swept from the barns asap.
If I want to know something I’d be more inclined to speak to people like outside left or Aaron Newton- both have more clout and power in the party in their little fingers than him.
Morning all.
Socrates – if your are around – I noticed on the previous thread last night you said that you were now satisfied with the AUKUS costings over a 30 year period.
I presume this relates back to an article that Professor Dean wrote in the Oz a couple of week’s ago (which I have note read because it was paywalled – but I did read his follow up series of tweets) where he seems to say that AUKUS was not much more expensive than the cancelled Attack Class program – when doing an incls comparison. If that is truly his claim I find it jaw dropping and probably demonstrably false. From what I can work out the basis of his comparison was to take the estimated $90 billion in turned out costs for the Attack class build program (ie. – as we now know that is the same of the $32 billion contract to naval group (in 2016 ‘constant dollars’) plus an initial estimated $18 billion in other ‘program costs’ (which had actually declined to ‘only’ $15 billion at the time the contract was cancelled) with the lot then subjected to a very long range forecast to arrive at a ‘turned out’ cost of $90 billion between 2016 and 2052). Then Prof. Dean added in 150% of that cost for ‘sustainment’ to arrive at a total AUKUS cost of $245 billion. Which – it seems – he then compared to the costs quoted by the government ($260-368 billion) and came to the stunning conclusion that there wasn’t much in it.
Have I got any of the above wrong yet?
It seems obvious to me that this is a monumental fudge in the calculations. Prof Dean seems to be using Joe Hockey’s eleventy calculator.
1. The 250-368 billion range only takes the AUKUS program through to the mid 2050s.
2. By 2053 – only three SSN-AUKUS subs will be in service. By 2055 – it is hoped that another one will be in service and the fifth in final fit-out / sea trial stage. Perhaps wishful thinking, but either way by the time the money runs out HALF the SSN-AUKUS build will still be underway and that wont finish up until the mid 2060s. That money has to come from somewhere.
3. By the time the money runs out there will still be forty+ years of sustainment left for the SSN-AUKUS class. Plus up to another 10 years of sustainment until the ‘interim’ Virginia Class is retired (and then there are undisclosed costs and a yet to be determined process to dispose of those radioactive suckers).
4. So in short, the $260-368 billion cost estimate only gets us 30 years down the track of an 85 year program. Even if the value of money stays ‘constant’ between 2053 and 2098 the remaining build costs, the sustainment costs and the disposal costs will double those figures. When allowing for further infarction and the consequent devaluation of money the costs will triple. Make no mistake – AUKUS is a trillion dollar program.
5. On the other hand there seem to be two possibilities concerning that $245 billion cost for the now cancelled Attack class – either that is an incls cost ($90 billion for the build and $155 billion for total sustainment between 2016 and 2082) or that the $245 billion estimate sits on top of the $90 billion build cost (ie. the true figure is $335 billion). However either way the Attack class incls cost for a ‘near SSN capable’ 12 boat conventionally powered fleet is either three times cheaper or four times cheaper than the incls cost for AUKUS. I do note in passing that the Attack class was due to be retired after 30 years of service per boat. However their hulls were built for 40 years service. So add in another 30-50 billion for a life extension and additional sustainment costs and … the Attack class would have been still at least three times cheaper than AUKUS.
6. One can arrive at similar conclusions if the Attack class was substituted for an SSN-Barracuda 10 boat fleet. It would have been three times cheaper than AUKUS.
have I got any of this wrong, Socrates?
Oliver Sutton @ #1 Tuesday, April 11th, 2023 – 5:52 am
Perhaps the ‘research’ was to find a suitable framing within which to argue the NO case. If so, it looks like they found one. Those leading questions might bear looking into.
Oh leftie – I think you’ll find … check notes … that my supposed ‘insult’ of C@t was NOT that she was a mere ‘booth captain’, rather that being a booth captain shouldn’t entitle her to some sort of immunity and free pass to dish out the insults but not receive return fire.
As for me: I’m self declared has-been who never was. And proud of it. I’ve never sought personal advancement beyond a point where my interests cease. I have never applied for silk and will never do so. Hence I never do any of the things required for that endeavour. I have never sought elected office and never will. Hence I dont do any of the things required to ‘get there’.
I am not bitter because I have failed in life (although never qualifying for the Hawaiian Ironman still smarts). I am frustrated that a bunch of really clever, smart, dedicated and indeed capable people – many of them my friends – have proven to be monumentally unwise when running the party. Moreover the same mistakes continue to be made.
And oh, I’ve been a booth captain – and more – many times in the past. These days I just do what I can, which is a pretty modest contribution I confess. Given other ‘life matters’ commitments.
if you don’t like my anecdotes, then by all means, feel free to scroll on by.
The Anthropocene Extinction Event is in full swing. What these new listings demonstrate is the ‘lag effect’. Basically, there is a lag between the causes being initiated and the causes causing actual extinctions.
My prediction is that Plibersek’s promise is one that is almost certain to be broken.
Other than that, net migration of 150,000-200,000 will accelerate extinction drivers.
There is no such thing as a sustainable suburb.
On the global evidence of tens of thousands of cities, there is no such thing as a sustainable city.
Insane.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/11/the-listing-of-more-australian-bird-species-as-threatened-is-alarming-but-also-cause-for-hope
“… a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question …”
IPA abuses polling to generate bad faith lies?
Dutton’s approach to the Voice goes to the heart of the Coalition’s corruption: bad faith lying. There can be no trust. There is no integrity. Anyone can be sacrificed. Politics is a form of anti-social Darwinism with the Coalition’s inner scum rising to the surface and the nastiest, most conniving and most vicious rising to the top. ﹰPrograms are corrupted. ﹰManagement is corrupted. ﹰPolicy is corrupted. National security is compromised. The environment is trashed. Time itself is trashed. The past is put away. The future is eaten. There is only a savage ever-rolling present of dog eat dog and the devil take the hindmost.
Larsland.
AE- No need to have your Doris schedule a mediation conference for me to dial into ( apart from your entitled arrogance your profession may bring you and your stupid name dropping antidotes) I quite enjoy your musings and disposition. However I’ve got my eye on you and will be watching you closely 😉
Regarding the triathlon business- as someone who grew up in huskisson/vincentia from 6 till 18 before I left for uni I can confidently say that travelling circus Emmo brought in is nothing but a taxing inconvenience for the locals who have to put up with the road network being virtually shut down for the weekend when you all turn up. The sooner the council boot it the better off the lives of the residents there will become
From William’s commentary at the head of the thread:
’One that conspicuously did not [get a positive majority for the Voice] was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasising that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. ‘
We haven’t seen the “leading question”, but the bit about “laws for every Australian” to me suggests push-polling, or at least, as an earlier poster suggests, an attempt to trial wording and tactics to use in the “No” case.
The only way to rid the US polity of Thomas is his death or via impeachment, which won’t happen while the GOP has a majority in the House. He’s completely partisan. A SCOTUS justice accepting largess from a republican donor – it doesn’t come much worse than this.
In more excellent news…
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2023/apr/10/housing-values-in-some-wealthy-australian-suburbs-have-slumped-more-than-a-quarter-data-reveals
Socrates says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 8:00 am
Morning all. Thanks BK. Greg Sheridan’s article is not only irrelevant but also hypocritical. Where was Sheridan when Newscorp treated Julia Gillard “Juliar” as not only the designated villain but the denigrated woman?
The criticism of Dutton has been confined to his policy decisions and shadow appointments amidst an obvious Liberal factional war. Those are legitimate political topics.
The criticism has not extended to Dutton’s personal life, even though he has a few vulnerabilities there on the financial front. Sheridan’s article is rubbish, and you have to wonder who ordered him to write it? Murdoch protecting the asset vale of his property?
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And nobody (supposedly) forced Dutton to advocate for the NO vote, that was his choice. As the LOTO, he is responsible for defending his position, it’s his job (he had the option of supporting the YES vote).
And if the reports about him deceiving or overriding his party room are correct then Dutton is even more culpable, his choice was made in the cold light of day with all the evidence in front of him. Having made the choice he must now live with opprobrium. If the cap fits …
And presumably Sheridan thinks any reasonable criticism of Albanese too is unwarranted and unfair?
Some more from the NSW Liberal Party meltdown in the AFR.. more is being added to the story every hour or so – it appears many, mostly in Kean’s office, are letting fly at Dom and the Morrison crew he brought in
Nineteen days after the 2GB debate, Perrottet definitively ruled out selling any government enterprises, ending a policy responsible for financing tens of billions in roads, tunnels and bridges. “I can’t be clearer,” he said. “I’ve said we’re not privatising assets.”
That day, Kean received the government’s talking points on a WhatsApp message with the new no asset sales position circled in red, with the word UPDATED.
The sender, and circler, was Yaron Finkelstein, Morrison’s former principal private secretary who Perrottet had appointed, quietly, to a new position of special counsel to the premier. A Morrison press secretary, Ben Wicks, became head of communications around the same time in late 2022. A less senior media adviser, Benn Ayre, who had worked for Liberal trade minister Dan Tehan, was hired too.
The Morrison boys were hired out of Perrottet’s frustration over the John Barilaro affair. The opposition propelled coverage of the former deputy premier’s plum New York trade posting, in June 2022, into a months-long nepotism melodrama that tainted Perrottet’s clean image.
“Dom wanted confidence in the media team,” says a former adviser. “He had just been through the Barilaro experience. Barilaro was a shit show.”
With the arrival of the Canberra crew, the premier’s office became more assertive. An election plan was produced, mapping out the entire campaign down to the day. C|T Group, the party’s pollster, was commissioned to write an in-depth report about voters’ attitudes towards the government, the economy and their lives. Ministers’ offices were told to have options for TV news stories available at all times.
When Kean agreed to give RN broadcaster Patricia Karvelas an interview, Finkelstein told him to cancel it.
Perrottet’s advisers felt the interview was an example of Kean’s inconsistent judgment: Karvelas’ smallish, left-leaning audience wasn’t going to save Coalition seats. More likely, it could fan coverage of climate-conspiracy comments made by a Nationals candidate in Port Macquarie.
Kean’s team felt the ScoMo guys had missed a central lesson of 2022: the right-wing media’s vote-pulling power, including 2GB and The Daily Telegraph, was spent.
……
Perrottet’s super weapon in the quest for the female vote was the NSW Kids Future Fund.
Developed by his deputy chief of staff, Monica Tudehope, it was a savings scheme for children under 11. The government would make an initial payment of $400, and match parents’ contributions up to $400 a year until the age of 18. When the owner became an adult, they could use the money for housing or education.
The treasurer’s office got three weeks’ notice, according to a person involved. An early version would have covered everyone under 20, costing the state’s AAA credit rating, which Perrottet frequently cited when asked to justify the $80 billion debt he had racked up.
“There were all kinds of crazy ideas floating around,” the source says.
The mainstream media treated the policy as interesting, but a little weird. It didn’t help that St Vincent de Paul, a Catholic charity, suggested families struggling now should be a higher priority.
Details were missing, too. On March 15, Kean couldn’t explain if the scheme covered children born outside NSW. “The premier will answer those questions,” he said.
Then Channel 10 reporter Lachlan Kennedy, granted an interview by the premier’s team in a bowling alley, asked if it was fair the families of children who died wouldn’t keep the government contributions.
“I think we’ve got the policy setting right,” Perrottet said.
Before the story was broadcast, Kennedy checked in with the premier’s office. There was a new ruling. When children died, their families would get all the cash.
Kean’s office, which had to find more money for the policy, saw a double standard. “Every time Dom would f— something, you would change the policy,” an insider says. “But any time someone else made a mistake, you were told you were a f—wit.”
Kean and his staff had accepted being bossed around. Apart from the disruption defiance would cause within the government, they figured they would be blamed for the expected loss if they resisted.
Directions mainly came through a small WhatsApp group used by the premier’s senior staff, Kean’s office and campaign headquarters. To avoid leaks, the messages were set to self-delete after a short time. Kean’s people took to screenshotting the ones they felt most egregious.
https://www.afr.com/politics/liberal-party-war-dom-was-functioning-as-his-own-treasurer-20230404-p5cxvm
Clearly, we are mortal enemies leftie.
A nimby whinge about the inconvenience of annual event like the Husky triathlon. How on earth will y’all cope with the 80 year inconvenience of nuclear subs being routinely parked in the neighbourhood, and the locals living in a certifiable ‘first strike’ region?
Also, it must have been a while since you were in husky for the triathlon weekend, but a few years ago Emo changed the course: there is now pretty decent access to and from the town over the whole weekend (the bike course is no longer a loop that runs through Vincentia). So there is that.
And my ‘entitled arrogance’ is all mine, so there is no need to put shade on my profession as a whole.
Sprocket, I appreciate you love this stuff – but do you think you may have breached fair use re the afr ?
Wouldn’t want you to get in copyright trouble and all…
The National’s signature project: a railroad to the middle of nowhere.
Lars, there is more – a lot more.
I understand Kean’s office has waived copywrite
But I must say, you do make a good class monitor, something from your days as a prefect?
Sprocket,
There are always 2 post election stories:
1) the genius tactics of the winning side
2) blame shifting for defeat
I’d say 1) has been rather muted but the smh did do a story along these lines
2) your rip off this morning is the first I’ve seen of 2)
I really thought you’d have some pictorial for us ? Thoughts on Buchholz / I would have thought he’d be exactly the type you would be interested in?
Lars, I know you appreciate the pictures. Here is the Morrison Crew brought in to help Dom.
Yaron in the centre..
Did they do something on the Sky Cooker hatchet job on Kean DURING the election?
AE- I’d find that more palatable than having a weak defence policy that allows the PRC/CCP to roll in without a flicker of resistance in 20 years time and be made to work in death camps not too long after that out in the bush until I die. Think I’m being bombastic?? Just look at what they do to their own minority groups over there.
Sounds like you may be aligned with the strawberry hill/ Cleveland st hard left circles??. Even your trusted factional warlord and respected FM Wong has no illusions at all about the threat the PRC pose to the COA. Hell, you can even attend a Labor left conference and be told privately by their front bench warriors of the very real concerns the CCP has generated for them once they had received full on proper ministerial security briefings last year. You just have to look past the manic ranting and raving woke greens wannabe hordes in the gallery
spr
Lovely. Yellow roses are a symbol of friendship. Maybe they should have been wearing shivs?