James Massola of the Age/Herald reports that “expectations (are) growing that former Prime Minister Scott Morrison will quit politics”, probably between the May budget and the end of the year, entailing a by-election for his seat of Cook. Please let it be so, because a valley of death stretches before those of us in the election industry out to the second half of next year, to be followed by a flood encompassing the Northern Territory on August 24, the Australian Capital Territory on October 19, Queensland on October 26 and Western Australia on March 8 the following year (UPDATE: It’s noted that the Queensland local government elections next March, inclusive as they are of the unusually significant Brisbane City Council and lord mayoralty, should rate a mention). A normal federal election for the House of Representatives and half the Senate could happen in the second half of 2024 or the first of 2025, the alternative of a double dissolution being presumably unlikely.
Redistributions will offer some diversion in the interim, particularly after the Electoral Commissioner calculates how many House of Representatives seats each state is entitled to in the next parliament on June 27. This is likely to result in Western Australia gaining a seat and New South Wales and Victoria each losing one (respectively putting them at 16, 46 and 38), initiating redistribution processes that are likely to take around a year. There is also an outside chance that Queensland will gain a thirty-first seat. The Northern Territory will also have a redistribution on grounds of it having been seven years since one was last conducted, although this will involve either a minimal tweak to the boundary between Solomon and Lingiari or no change at all. At state level, a redistribution process was recently initiated in Western Australia and should conclude near the end of the year. The other state that conducts a redistribution every term, South Australia, gives its boundaries commission wide latitude on when it gets the ball rolling, but past experience suggests it’s likely to be near the end of the year.
However, the main electoral event of the foreseeable future is undoubtedly the Indigenous Voice referendum, which is likely to be held between October and December. Kevin Bonham has a post on polling for referendum in which he standardises the various results, which differ markedly in terms of their questions and response structures, and divines a fall in support from around 65% in the middle of last year to around 58% at present. For those of you with access to academic journals, there is also a paper by Murray Goot of Macquarie University in the Journal of Australian Studies entitled “Support in the Polls for an Indigenous Constitutional Voice: How Broad, How Strong, How Vulnerable?” In narrowing it down to credible polls with non-binary response options (i.e. those allowing for uncommitted responses of some kind, as distinct from forced response polls), Goot finds support has fallen from around 58% to 51% from the period of May to September to the period of October to January, while opposition had risen from 18% to 27%. The change was concentrated among Coalition supporters: whereas Labor and especially Greens supporters were consistently and strongly in favour, support among Coalition fell from around 45% to 36%.
Forced response questions consistently found between 60% and 65% in favour regardless of question wording, while non-binary polls (i.e. allowing for various kind of uncommitted response) have almost invariably had at over 50%. Goot notes that forced response polls have found respondents breaking between for and against in similar proportion to the rest, which “confounds the idea that, when push comes to shove, ‘undecided’ voters will necessarily vote no”. However, he also notes that questions in non-binary polls that have produced active majorities in favour have either mentioned an Indigenous Voice or the Uluru Statement from the Heart, or “rehearsed the Prime Minister’s proposal to amend the Constitution”. One that conspicuously did not do any of these things was a Dynata poll for the Institute of Public Affairs, which got a positive result of just 28% by priming respondents with a leading question and then emphasised that the proposal would involve “laws for every Australian”. JWS Research got only 43% in favour and 23% against, but its response structure was faulted by Goot for including a “need more information” option, which ruled the 20% who chose it out of contention one way or the other.
How did Ronald Reagan Screw up America? Let us Count the Ways!
”
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2023/4/10/2163101/-How-did-Ronald-Reagan-Screw-up-America-Let-us-Count-the-Ways
”
Now even Reagan will not win primaries. He will be called RINO if he competed in Primaries.
Sprocket, isnt the guy on the right a former Labor staffer?
In his article Sheridan articulates any number of specious (imo) arguments as to the almost apocalyptic impacts of The Voice on our nation and the very fate of our democracy.
I wonder, given his impending prediction, what he believes about the majority who will likely vote Yes. Are they all well-meaning morons, deluded, ignorant or outright dangerous? What then will he do about his dilemma? If the situation is so dire, will he and his like perhaps leave for greener pastures?
Probably not, like all of us, he will continue to enjoy the benefits of an even fairer nation, despite having made his prejudices clear. The sun will rise the next day and life will go on as it always has but with just a little more dignity and ‘voice’ given to our indigenous peoples.
Lols. Leftie – I’m a Keating Centre Unity type through and through. I chuckled when I heard Keating say to Laura Tingle that the left these days makes Laurie Brereton, Leo McLeay and him look like Bolsheviks.
Your invasion fears are irrational mate. Unless we truly paint ourselves into a corner and make ourselves a first strike target on account of american bases the only thing we truly have to fear with the rise of China is … the threat of continued prosperity.
How naive are ‘left wing ministers’ (I presume this means Pat Conroy) who have now been glamoured by ‘the spooks’ in their secret squirrel ministerial briefings about the Big Bad Panda. FMD.
Of course the ChiComms spy on us. Of course they try to steal intel and trade secrets. Folk seem bamboozled NOW when the penny drops when this was obvious decades ago (hence Labor’s wise moves when last in government to deny the ChiComms – and affiliated tech companies – a slice of both the NBN rollout contracts or the 4G network). The fact is ‘the establishment’ have lurched from one extreme to the other, when a healthy dose of skepticism all the way through would have served us much better. The Albanese government has been taken hostage by this sort of group think.
Late Riser
Thanks for the APC link.
Andrew. Earlwood
Yes I was referring to the 150% sustainment cost assumption. I was simply saying that if the AUKUS budget did include 150% sustainment costs to 3 Virginias and 8 SSNAukus class then you would get a cost close to what was announced from my costing model.
I take your point that the sustainment cost assumption seems inconsistent with the stated 30 year cost timeframe. I am no wiser on what AUKUS includes than you are.
Either way, I have said from the start that 10 to 12 Suffrens would be cheaper no matter how you do the costs.
Cronus
The very same people who spent two centuries doing ‘them and us’ on a racist basis, with devastating impacts, are now doing ‘us and us’.
The words are different. The intent is the same.
The solution to their conceptual difficulties? Lies.
Looks like Japanese funded coal – hydrogen projects are just as much snake oil as the Australian ones. Good to see these fake solutions collapse.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/11/japanese-funded-500m-project-to-extract-hydrogen-from-victorian-coal-is-at-risk-sources-say?CMP=share_btn_tw
Dalai Lama – tongue sucking the young boy? Time for cancellation? Thoughts?
Soc
I hope that that one sinks like a stone.
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 9:32 am
Dalai Lama – tongue sucking the young boy? Time for cancellation? Thoughts?’
————————————
Your problem will be solved when the Chicommies run the next ‘find the dalai lama’ exercise.
The Dalai Lama has wisely taken precautions on that one Boer. He has said his successor will reincarnate outside of Tibet.
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 9:36 am
The Dalai Lama has wisely taken precautions on that one Boer. He has said his successor will reincarnate outside of Tibet.’
—————————-
LOL
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 9:05 am
Sprocket, I appreciate you love this stuff – but do you think you may have breached fair use re the afr ?
Wouldn’t want you to get in copyright trouble and all…
”
LOL Lars!
But no Fat Liberal is involved unless one/ few of DoPe/Morrison ex-staff are fat.
Is that copyright issue?
Boer
In more excellent news…
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2023/apr/10/housing-values-in-some-wealthy-australian-suburbs-have-slumped-more-than-a-quarter-data-reveals
It is indeed pleasing that the assets of the elite have responded to market forces.
I guess that was something you never had to worry about in the Public Service. Indeed, even now, the market could go into the shitter but the commonwealth would still pay you the same pension, even if it had to sell off public assets.
It would apparently take a constitutional amendment to make it otherwise
Some sobering stats.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/11/poor-discipline-in-australian-schools-among-factors-driving-teachers-away-oecd-warns
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 9:39 am
Boer
In more excellent news…
https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2023/apr/10/housing-values-in-some-wealthy-australian-suburbs-have-slumped-more-than-a-quarter-data-reveals
It is indeed pleasing that the assets of the elite have responded to market forces.
I guess that was something you never had to worry about in the Public Service. Indeed, even now, the market could go into the shitter but the commonwealth would still pay you the same pension, even if it had to sell off public assets.
It would apparently take a constitutional amendment to make it otherwise’
———————————
Stew away, OC. Much appreciated. You are adding a psychic benefit to the way in which I decided to accept a much lower income in the public service than I was earning in the private sector. The other psychic benefit is my contribution to some huge systemic differences across the Australian landscape. But does my ledger balance? How do you weigh more useless money against having made a big difference? Once again, thank you!
Ven, sprocket knows he needs to have consent for his fat Tory photos.
He’s well versed in what he can and can’t do with his photo collection .
Re his holiness-
Not sure why he is being accused of these actions?.
After googling I see a news limited story written by a “frank Chung” – hmmm no bias there there right ??
Goody.
House price declines in our suburb should mean property tax declines as per falling valuations.
Anothery for OC to appreciate with joy!
I must say, though, that progressive taxation as per rising valuations do rather tend to go up and do rather hesitate to go back down.
Fair cop OC, Boer is also paying rates in the ACT for the disabled kiddies out of his defined benefit windfall.
Still Boer deathriding people losing money on property is distasteful IMO.
‘leftieBrawler says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 9:45 am
Re his holiness-
Not sure why he is being accused of these actions?.
After googling I see a news limited story written by a “frank Chung” – hmmm no bias there- the rightful Tibetan leader subject to more bashing from China’
=========================================
His serenity made the technological mistake of getting himself videod kissing the lad and asking the lad to suck his tongue. Prayer wheels are more his go, apparently.
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 9:36 am
The Dalai Lama has wisely taken precautions on that one Boer. He has said his successor will reincarnate outside of Tibet.
”
Presumably in India.
‘Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 9:46 am
Fair cop OC, Boer is also paying rates in the ACT for the disabled kiddies out of his defined benefit windfall.
Still Boer deathriding people losing money on property is distasteful IMO.’
—————————————————
Dutton’s approach to the Voice goes to the heart of the Coalition’s corruption: bad faith lying. There can be no trust. There is no integrity. Anyone can be sacrificed. Politics is a form of anti-social Darwinism with the Coalition’s inner scum rising to the surface and the nastiest, most conniving and most vicious rising to the top. ﹰPrograms are corrupted. ﹰManagement is corrupted. ﹰPolicy is corrupted. National security is compromised. The environment is trashed. Time itself is trashed. The past is put away. The future is eaten. There is only a savage ever-rolling present of dog eat dog and the devil take the hindmost. Envy, cynicism, fear and loathing debase the social coinage.
Larsland.
Boerwar, he is closing in on 90 right? Just like Biden more likely than not a dementia inspired slip up of words?
With the “neEd mOrE deTaiL” so-called argument against the Voice, perhaps it would be helpful to point out that the Constitution does not specify the operations of some really, really fundamental aspects of Government:
Cabinet Government: No Prime Minister in there. Or Treasurer. Just “Ministers of State” – nothing about number, roles, accountabilities. Surely we need “more detail” enshrined in the Constitution on this vital aspect of Government!
The Courts: Apart from saying there needs to be at least three Justices and providing that the High Court is the originating Court, there is nothing else. The Federal Court is worse – it just exists! Nothing about how appointments are made, how many judges, rules of the Court… nothing! Surely details need to be in the Constitution!
Taxation: The power to levy taxes is there, but nothing else! How income tax, corporate tax, the GST, all that stuff works. Nothing!!!! Taxation is the cornerstone of Government so surely more detail is needed!
Elections: There is some stuff around consistent methods of elections, mechanics of proroguing Parliament and the ratio of Senators to MHRs but……. how elections are run, the voting methods, how elections are supervised, the number of members of Parliament… nothing! How can we even run a Parliament unless these details are stepped out in our Constitution?
Defence: The core-est and most important role of government – to keep us safe! But what do we see in the Constitution… a power over defence but… nothing else! No ADF, no Defence Department, no chief of staff. No mention of the Army, Navy or Air Force. No detail at all on how war and peace is done. This is surely a major lapse that needs correcting!
So apparently the argument is we don’t need Constitutional specifics on the operations of Cabinet Government, the Courts, elections, defence, taxation……. But apparently we do need it for an advisory body with no decision making capability……
Let’s call out this bad faith argument for the utter crock of sh** it is.
Boer I agree with your assessments of Dutton and the voice but the rest of that hints strongly of player one drugging you this morning ?
I offer a few final reading and viewing links I found of interest yesterday and this morning.
This USNI article briefly summarises why submarines are becoming the key assets in naval warfare. I agree with it. It shows why USA wants us to get US SSNs. Putting aside debates over UK vs US vs France it highlights the importance of an AUKUS like program. Of course, you might ask, if subs are so good, why are we waiting so long to build them?
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/march/submarines-will-reign-war-china
Can’t find the link but another article pointed out that the first large UUVs going into USN service will be mainly for anti-mine/minesweeping activity. Making controllable UUVs to take over anti-ship or ASW is proving a lot harder than some assumed. There is no sign crewed submarines are about to be replaced any time soon.
This Perun youtube presentation talks about the logic of military alliances. I like his logic and – provided the payoffs to each side are clear – you can even analyse the logic of alliances / agreements like AUKUS in this manner.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eUL8EvZkfEY
Have a good day all.
Lars
Why is Yaron Finkelstein such a sort after figure in Liberal party circles when he was responsible for defeats of LNP governments on constant basis?
It appears he is good at wedge ideas.
Adelaide is a National Park City. It is a bit of a joke really. So many people, time and money went into securing the certification. Yet peeps are still cutting down native trees (branch fall, leaves!) and clearing bushland (fire hazard, messy) within the bounds with barely a whimper from the regulators.
Your point is true of course. Adelaide has shown that some native trees and some other species can survive in an urban environment. But it isnt an ecosystem. And it may yet deteriorate further. Meanwhile, the remnant bushland in the surrounds keep being pressured and are dying by a thousand cuts. Latest word is the tree die off is mostly caused by the lack of specific birds that catch tree eating insects. The birds are gone because of cats and native bully birds thriving on the new paradigm. The system is shot. What will remain could be called nature but it wont be biodiverse. Which is a crying shame here because the SA hills do have a surprisingly diverse flora and fauna.
Lars Is he of one of the celebrated St Ives- via zuid afrika Finklesteins?
Or the more established ones around Pinot Piper and Vaucluse and Double pay bay ones ?
l
Yes, I did rather wonder.
It is one of the huge risks of one person ruling for life autocracies, whether theocratic or secular, that megalomaniacs such as Putin or Xi have a very high chance of going gaga as they age. The high stress paranoia that goes with the job probably does not help.
All those who expect China and Russia to be rational players had better be right or we earthians might have a glow-in-the-dark last nanosecond on earth type experience.
In Earlwood world the current mock invasion of Taiwan military exercises are just Xi showing what a great and trustworthy trade partner China is for the long term with no aggressive plans at all. Reacting to one politician visiting the United States and meeting Kevin freaking McCarthy with full scale military exercises is what cuddly non threatening countries do!
There’s no turning him and he will deploy personal abuse at you long and loud for even daring to suggest he could be wrong about anything, so no real point in engaging him on this issue.
The Age 10/04
Some businesses hit hardest by Victoria’s devastating floods last October have not received the financial support that was promised more than five months ago by Premier Daniel Andrews and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Meanwhile, little has been heard from Melbourne Water about its upcoming inquiry into the Maribyrnong River floods.
Melbourne Water staff had pledged to release submissions made by the public and agencies to its inquiry after they closed on March 17. They have yet to do so.
_____________________
Bloody hopeless from the Andrews and Albanese governments.
Whilst that Melbourne Water inquiry is going nowhere fast.
‘leftieBrawler says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 9:55 am
Boer I agree with your assessments of Dutton and the voice but the rest of that hints strongly of player one drugging you this morning ?’
——————————-
I scroll past P1. Occasionally I accidentally read stuff when someone else responds to P1. I do find it amusing when new posters engage with P1. They ALL end up in the same place. It is destiny.
AE, all of the locals,except for B&B owners, and most of the businesses here hate the Husky triathalon. Too many narcissists and unsociable types, and they don’t spend much locally.
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 9:59 am
The Age 10/04
Some businesses hit hardest by Victoria’s devastating floods last October have not received the financial support that was promised more than five months ago by Premier Daniel Andrews and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
….’
———————-
They must have filled their forms in badly. Or they may not be eligible for one good reason or another. We received our support months ago. It was all very expeditious. The bureaucracy was very helpful.
Thank you, Dan! Thank you, Albo!
Just checked and our wombats are moving back in which has to be the biggest vote of confidence in Dan and Albo that you could find.
China doing military exercises off the coast of Taiwan is just china being china, Arky. You have been sucker punched into swallowing the hype of what that means for Australian security. Paradoxically, it means a lot BUT only because the Canberra establishment have now unequivocally volunteered us all for frontline service.
Under the guidance of Yaron Finkelstein, when he was chief advisor of Morrison, two important wedge policies were implemented, which will bedevil this country for decades to come
1. S3 tax cuts
2. AUKUS deal, whose details were only worked after 18 months of review and that too kick the can of Nuclear Subs down the road because nothing else could be done about it.
Two disastrous policies which will be like Albatross around this country’s neck.
‘Arky says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 9:59 am
In Earlwood world the current mock invasion of Taiwan military exercises are just Xi showing what a great and trustworthy trade partner China is for the long term with no aggressive plans at all….’
———————————–
I can’t speak for A-E of course.
The point with China is this. It simply does not care what anybody else thinks of their ethical behaviour. Could not give a rat’s.
It is power. It is reward and punishment. In that sense, China is, while Xi keeps most of his marbles, predictable.
The could not give a shit/raw power dynamic is why China has no compunction at all about STILL punishing Australia’s trade. Australia’s grape growers are in a bad way because of this. Not that anyone in the urbs would notice!
PageBoi: I tend to agree very much that Voice polling so far has been in the absence of real engagement from a lot of the population, also the absence of an organised Yes campaign, but months of an organised soft No campaign from the Liberal /News side with an unsurprising decline in support from those who still pay attention to them. Once there’s some organised campaign launches and the vote draws nearer the polling will be more interesting.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 9:29 am
Cronus
The very same people who spent two centuries doing ‘them and us’ on a racist basis, with devastating impacts, are now doing ‘us and us’.
The words are different. The intent is the same.
The solution to their conceptual difficulties? Lies.
——————————————————————-
After a couple of hundred years of having unquestioned determination of, well everything, Liberals recognising the original status of the tiny minority of these inhabitants and allowing them a small but meaningful input into decisions that might impact them must be quite threatening.
Cronus
Yep.
If the point is always power then the point is always not letting go of power.
‘No’ was always going to be Dutton’s answer.
Mavis @ #38 Tuesday, April 11th, 2023 – 8:26 am
Mavis, everything is partisan in the US. And…. $45mill election campaign for a state judge? OMFG.
“ Australia’s grape growers are in a bad way because of this. Not that anyone in the urbs would notice!”
Yes, the hardest hit company may be forced to consider going back to growing cannabis. Porca miseria!
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 10:05 am
China doing military exercises off the coast of Taiwan is just china being china, Arky.
…’
—————————
China illegally grabbing various bits of South China Sea real estate, lying about its intention not to militarize them and then militarizing them anyway, is just China being China Arky.
One result is that China can now forward base its subs 1500 km closer to Australia.
Do get with the program, Arky.
It is all ‘China just being China’.
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 at 10:15 am
“ Australia’s grape growers are in a bad way because of this. Not that anyone in the urbs would notice!”
Yes, the hardest hit company may be forced to consider going back to growing cannabis. Porca miseria!’
————————————————-
I note your habitual empathy. They should console themselves with the realization that they are fucked because ‘China is just being China’.
Thanks BK
Former president Donald Trump has been indicted, but it is America – with its fragile hold on democracy – that is on trial, writes Peer Hartcher who says that if liberty is to survive, the world needs a democratic America.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/if-liberty-is-to-survive-the-world-needs-a-democratic-america-20230410-p5cz7p.html
____________
No, no, no!
A political system cannot be dependent on on nation – even if that nation is militarily the most powerful in history.
Did monarchy fall because of the C18th revolutions in America and France? Did monarchy fail in the aftermath of the two World Wars, when so many former monarchies became republics?
On a parallel theme, I’m not interested in being dependent on the (dis)United Sh1tshow of America for my liberty.
Hartcher is displaying the Australian National Security Cringe bigly: “please, big friendly nation, protect us from the nasties!”
Interesting. Inequality increased dramatically under Hawke, and declined under Keating and Howard. Rudd, Gillard and assorted tory PMs saw inequality race back up. Hard for some people to explain, I guess.
Swimming pools of the rich driving city water crises, study says
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/10/swimming-pools-rich-driving-city-water-crises
China being China means they have no compunction about taking what they want if they think they can get away with it, Earlwood. The big bully in the playground. For now it’s gunboat diplomacy, trade wars and mock invasion military exercises. To bet everything they will never go any further than that if they believe they can get away with it? Pfft.
If they can take Taiwan they won’t stop there. What aggressor nation in history has stopped there that had the power to keep going?