Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

Hot on the heels of its drubbing in Aston, the Coalition cops a worsening picture from the first Newspoll in four weeks.

The Australian reports that a grim weekend for the Coalition has been capped by a bad Newspoll result, with Labor’s two-party lead widening from 54-46 to 55-45 from primary votes of Labor 38% (up one), Coalition 33% (down two), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up one). Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has also widened from 54-28 to 58-26. The report says Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 56% while Peter Dutton is down two to 35%, with no word yet on disapproval. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1500. Update from Adrian Beaumont: Albanese’s disapproval is down three to 35% and Dutton’s disapproval is steady at 48%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,116 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Borewar wrote, “I see that the Corbynator is not satisfied with having led Labor to defeat once.”

    Right wingers such as yourself are so out of touch. Corbyn will run in Isylington North as an independent and win.

    Starmer has been de selecting left wing MPS all over the pace and also expelling Jewish members at breath neck speed. Coverage from the right wing media? Zero! But don’t worry as this matches your DLP mindset.

  2. I’m not sure what is happening in France is bad. Workers fighting to keep hard won benefits, and retirement ages much of the rest of us have had stripped for little or no return, in Australia to fund the very wealthy getting franking credit jackpot welfare payments and keeping negative gearing and the CGT discount, while we leave retired nurses, who couldn’t work to 125 because of physical demands in very ordinary positions.

    I think the French have the right end of the stick.

  3. Anyone who thinks a ‘professional dolebludger’ is more of a threat to the country than an arse-wipe like Angus Taylor, needs their head read.

  4. Mavis says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 3:24 pm
    Can the judge presiding in Trump’s matters impose a gag order (an injunction barring trial participants from discussing trial-related material outside the courtroom) on him, thereby negativing the 1st?

    Yes, he can. Will he thought is another question. The current proceeding is unprecedented in US history: a former president facing felony charges but concomitantly standing for president. Were a gag order to be imposed, Trump will little doubt appeal it and it would end up in the SCOTUS, where it hasn’t been as friendly to him as he once thought it would be after nominating Gorsuch, Kavanaugh & Coney Barrett.
    ——————————————————————

    Thanks Mavis, much appreciated, I feel as though we have you, Shellbell and others on an unpaid retainer.

  5. “WWP: “ongoing bipartisan support.”

    Like blocking funding for social housing.”

    Are you suggesting there has been a state government of any political party that has had a genuine crack as proper funding for social housing? And by proper I mean a measure actually taken in light of the size of the problem with a real chance of removing or significantly reducing the problem and I would exclude few minor projects that all fit within the photo opp budget.

    I don’t know if the ACT has a public housing problem, but if and to the extent they do I’d suggest the failure is tri-partisan.

  6. The EU and US have obviously noticed China has been completely dismissive of real engagement with Ukraine, given Xi has been touting himself as Heaven’s own mandated solution to the war – sorry, I mean ‘crisis’ – in Ukraine:

    “China has a moral duty to contribute to the establishment of peace in Ukraine, and must not support the aggressor in the war started by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union’s top diplomat said on Tuesday.

    “China has a moral duty to contribute to a fair peace, they cannot be siding with the aggressor,” Reuters reports EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said after a meeting with US secretary of state Antony Blinken in Brussels.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/apr/04/russia-ukraine-war-live-finland-to-officially-join-nato-russia-drone-strikes-hit-odesa-port#maincontent

    Dead set, Xi and the whole Beijing regime have been treating Ukraine as if it is not a sovereign nation in its own right, and President Zelenskyy as if his views and concerns on the war occurring entirely within his own country don’t matter.

    So far, Xi and China are behaving towards Ukraine exactly as an enemy would – one which is using Moscow as a proxy force to kill Europeans for it.

  7. Hey politics and propaganda loving aside, there population here is pretty tech savvy.

    I’ve found a lot of great text to voice tools that allow a free play or two before wanting you to subscribe, are there any ‘goodish’ tools that are properly free?

    Also with AI text to image and upscaling AI, anyone found a good free combo?

  8. Lars wrote, “Clem it’s getting and being rich and paying as little tax as possible. ”

    So, as long as you are getting rich, you just ignore the Robotdebt, etc? I feel sorry for you. What a sad case you are.

  9. Kevin Bonham

    #Essential federal 53-42 to ALP (=55.8 2PP).
    Raw primaries (not comparable to other polls) ALP 33 L-NP 30 Grn 14 ON 6 UAP 2 others 10.
    I get 56.2 (-0.1) to ALP by 2022 prefs

  10. I feel sorry for you Clem.

    False consciousness that Labor makes or intends to make any difference.

    the PFAFF housing fund is a good example of the tokenism you endorse.

  11. Lars Von Trier @ Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 6:48 pm:
    ======================

    Lars, I’m glad you asked!

    It is absolutely disgraceful that India, under Modi, has increased its trade with Russia more than five-fold since Feb 24, 2022. They have not lifted a finger to help Ukraine in its catastrophic distress. They have refused to utter even a syllable of explicit condemnation of Moscow for its brutal and inexcusable invasion and occupation of Ukraine. They have ostentatiously abstained from every critical vote on this on the floor of the UN General Assembly. By doing this, they have forfeited any reasonable grounds for expecting the slightest bit of help from anywhere, as far as I am concerned.

    Edit: India just considers Ukrainians as regrettable but acceptable collateral damage in their pursuit of Russian oil and weapons. With much sorrow, I’m sure, they consider the Ukrainian men, women and children being killed, tortured and raped a price well worth paying. 😡

  12. Lars wrote, “False consciousness that Labor makes or intends to make any difference.”

    Clearly you are paying far too much attention to the likes of of Boerwar.

  13. @BW

    Ok I’ll bite…… (I probably shouldn’t as you don’t actually engage in substance or good faith)

    So the NRAS scheme (not a great scheme I’ll admit) at its height was 38k affordable houses, which the ALP has discontinued. The NFF will, at best, build 30k affordable houses, so thanks to Labor that’s 8000 people who in your words can ‘get fucked’

    The waitlist for public and social housing is into the hundreds of thousands and growing, so these people according to ALP policy get a far-q too

    Homelessness is rising – a far-q for them too

    Reports today show that due to a variety of factors the private sector will be at least 180k short of demand for housing, and yet the ALP has massively increased migration and foreign students, so a massive far-q to anyone trying to rent privately

    I also notice, as usual, that you don’t actually defend Labor’s policy, you just attack anyone criticising it

    But for mine, this is the ultimate far-q from Labor. They are happily signing us up to the Aukus folly, and straight up gifting the yanks $6b to help expand their sub building capacity, in the hope that maybe, if we ask REALLY nicely they might sell us a couple of second hand subs in a decade – and that’s all ‘on budget ‘ spending

    Yet in a bonafide housing crisis, All we get is a $10b off budget spend to a fund where we spend the interest, capped at $500m per year on housing, and even then the government isn’t even building a single dwelling, merely ‘incentivising’ developers to do a bit more. For me, that’s the biggest fuck you of all. Labor isn’t doing jack shit about housing, so please Boerwar, explain to us how the ALP actually cares about housing and defend this policy, this will be good


  14. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 5:20 pm
    Jarryd Hayne found guilty of sexually assaulting a woman at her Newcastle home almost five years ago. After more than six days of deliberating, a jury on Tuesday found the two-time Dally M winner and ex-NFL convert guilty of two counts of sexual intercourse without consent.
    Following an 11 day trial in Sydney’s JMT District Court, the jury of six men and six women declared their verdict and convicted Hayne.

    After 4 years and 3 trials. I hope prosecution showed same determination in prosecuting corrupt Australian politicians.

  15. Dogs Brunch

    “ Anyone who thinks a ‘professional dolebludger’ is more of a threat to the country than an arse-wipe like Angus Taylor, needs their head read.”

    Agreed.
    Total unemployment benefits in 21/22 cost $16 billion.
    Aged pensions cost 3 x more ($48 billion).
    Capital gains tax breaks cost $48 billion
    Super tax concessions cost $50 billion

    The days when social security benefits in Australia were generous are long gone. Several individual tax rorts engineered by Costello, Taylor and their kind cost more than the entire social security system. See
    https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/super-tax-concessions-now-on-par-with-entire-aged-pension-greater-than-ndis-research/


  16. shellbellsays:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 5:24 pm
    Hayne’s sentencing should be interesting.

    Tried three times, convicted and sentenced once, appeals successfully, retried and convicted a second time.

    Shellbell
    Why does legal profession has difficulty in prosecuting Australian politicians? One example, Brittney Higgins case. I understand Innocent until proven guilty principle. But they went after Hayne until he was proven guilty.

  17. Ven

    “ After 4 years and 3 trials. I hope prosecution showed same determination in prosecuting corrupt Australian politicians.”

    +1
    You can add at least one political staffer as well.

  18. The owner of the apartment my son rents in Perth’s inner east has put it on the market.
    His lease was up in May and the owner has agreed for him to break the lease early if he wanted to.
    He has a new place, nicer but a bit further from his workplace and 100 a week more. But he says the rent on his exisiting place was going up anyway.
    And he asks, what can you do?
    Looking for place 200 a week cheaper and there are 50 people applying and travel becomes an issue.
    He’s fortunate I guess that he and his wife both work and have no kids but he says this is the last rental.
    He’s hoping the madness that is the property market might cool a bit as higher interest rates bite.
    Good luck.
    And there’s a story in the local media about an overseas student who is staying in a women’s refuge because she can’t find a place she can afford.
    Labor housing fund is no doubt based on wanting to do something but even the builders in WA who are not going broke take two years to complete a house so there are no quick fixes.
    Just about the biggest builder in Perth announced this week that its stopping signing new contracts in a bid to catch up.
    The usual suspects will blame Labor.

  19. Socrates and Dog’s Brunch,
    I’ve forgotten who started this but we need to get on the bandwagon – we need to stop the media calling them ‘self-funded retirees’ and start calling them ‘tax-subsidised retirees’. Their whole financial model is based on tax transfers from working people – a lot of whom have way less money than they do. The idea that they are some class of doughty independent self-starters is a fraud and a self-serving, self-perpetuated myth and the discourse needs to move.

  20. Government staff who are given exceptions to use TikTok for work will need a dedicated phone for the app and must register their account to a generic federal email address, underscoring the severity of the risk security agencies see in the service.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-government-bans-social-media-app-tiktok-from-public-servants-work-devices-citing-security-concerns-20230404-p5cxxs.html

    So many questions! Many people I know, including myself don’t have a TikTok account, but have the app on our phones for use. What is the risk for us, if any?


  21. William Bowesays:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 6:30 pm
    While you’re about, Clem — the assessment I provided of Ryde the other day wasn’t my best work. Two problems with it: first, I’d forgotten the TCP count didn’t have absents and enrolment/provisionals, which they are only counting on the primary vote for some reason. Include a reasonable estimate of those based on the primary vote, and the Liberal lead would have been about 161 rather than 232. Second, I thought only late postals remained to be counted, when there were actually a further 489 absents and 40 absent/provisionals. Those got added today, and my estimate is that they will have pared the Liberal lead down to about 89. However, there still seems little chance that a Liberal lead of any size would be overturned on postals, which really is all that’s left now.

    WB
    Why just Clem. Most of us on PB are interested in that analysis. Thank you for that.


  22. Lars Von Triersays:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 6:25 pm
    Clem it’s getting and being rich and paying as little tax as possible.

    Life is good – waiting to tuck into fresh crayfish after a hard day on the golf course at King Island. Private charter back on Thursday.

    Lars
    What is that ABBA song?
    Money money money……

    I makes sane people go crazy and half wits go batshit crazy.

  23. Henry says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 7:20 pm

    Would love to know the website of P1s eco trailer park
    _________
    Why? the details of P1’s life are quite inconsequential.

  24. and yet the ALP has massively increased migration and foreign students

    We probably need a huge intake of skilled immigrants, if we ever were serious about building the amount of housing that we are being told that we need. Right now we have no capacity to build 100,000 homes a year.

  25. nath @ Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 7:35 pm:

    “Why? the details of P1’s life are quite inconsequential.”
    =========

    Ironic.

  26. “ Liberal shadow ministers will thrash out the opposition’s Voice stance in a hastily convened early morning meeting on Wednesday as the party prepares to wave through the government’s bill allowing the referendum to take place.

    The opposition’s snap party room meeting in Canberra created confusion among senior Liberals, many of whom were not aware on Tuesday night exactly what the party’s leadership wanted to decide on Wednesday morning.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-calls-snap-meeting-of-mps-to-decide-liberals-voice-stance-20230404-p5cy1h.html

  27. How can it be a hastily called snap meeting for tomorrow when it was reported yesterday that the opposition partyroom would be meeting on Wednesday to formulate a position on the Voice?

  28. George Simon is Assistant General Secretary of the NSW Labor Party.

    Just posted his status…

    When I die shortly my tombstone will read: Passed away doing what he loved most. Scrutineering Ryde absentee ballots.

  29. sprocket_ says:

    When I die shortly my tombstone will read: Passed away doing what he loved most. Scrutineering Ryde absentee ballots.
    _________________________
    That’s a pretty ordinary epitaph, although it may well be accurate.


  30. sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 7:52 pm
    George Simon is Assistant General Secretary of the NSW Labor Party.

    Just posted his status…

    When I die shortly my tombstone will read: Passed away doing what he loved most. Scrutineering Ryde absentee ballots.

    ROFL sprocket.
    Best joke of day.


  31. sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 7:52 pm
    George Simon is Assistant General Secretary of the NSW Labor Party.

    Just posted his status…

    When I die shortly my tombstone will read: Passed away doing what he loved most. Scrutineering Ryde absentee ballots.

    I hope NSW Labor wins Ryde.

  32. Promising a million additional houses translates into reducing the actual real world supply of houses by 30,000 when Bandt gets the opportunity to block something.
    And people are seriously defending this!

  33. Enough Already @ #1032 Tuesday, April 4th, 2023 – 7:41 pm

    nath @ Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 7:35 pm:

    “Why? the details of P1’s life are quite inconsequential.”
    =========

    Ironic.

    Yes. I think I have had every detail of my life exploited for gain and vilification by the miscreants on this blog. No one ever told them they should not do it.

  34. Life is good – waiting to tuck into fresh crayfish after a hard day on the golf course at King Island. Private charter back on Thursday.

    The very definition of onanism. 😐

  35. Player One says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 5:07 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #950 Tuesday, April 4th, 2023 – 5:02 pm

    I think Madeleine King should be managed out of Govt. Better suited to working directly for the fossil fuel industry.

    You think she isn’t?
    中华人民共和国
    So its’ an “industry” now whereas some months ago it was a “cartel”? Hehehe you two jokers crack me up.

  36. Former President Trump is expected to face what could be more than two dozen counts across different charges as he makes his first appearance in court Tuesday, following an indictment in connection with concealing hush money payments to an adult film star.

    The charges will be revealed when Trump is arraigned in Manhattan. In the brief courtroom exchange, Judge Juan Merchan will read aloud the laws the former president is alleged to have violated, while Trump is expected to plead not guilty. The criminal charges stem from a $130,000 payment made to Stormy Daniels by Trump fixer Michael Cohen. Though hush money payments are not illegal, the manner in which Trump and Cohen concealed the payments could be, casting the reimbursements as legal expenses.

    Reports indicate Trump could face charges on more than 30 counts from Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg (D). The potential for dozens of charges likely reflect Trump’s lengthy payment history with Cohen – spread out over about a year – as well as the track prosecutors take in tying the misdemeanor records falsification to a felony that could include both tax fraud and campaign finance violations. Trump or his trust wrote 11 checks to Cohen, and each could trigger separate charges, even if prosecutors focus only on the checks the former president directly signed.
    https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/3932018-trump-arraignment-may-reveal-dozens-of-charges-over-daniels-payments/

  37. I think the snap meeting is the shadow cabinet.
    As I read it the party room meeting was called then somebody realised the leaders had to have a proposition to put to that meeting.
    Dutton and Leeser need to work up the script for a No in the party room.
    Will archer and others dissent?
    It’s a unicorn meeting.
    Designed to distract from Aston.

  38. The meeting is probably to agree on the talking points supporting the Opposition’s opposition to the Voice and to bring any waverers and dissidents into line.

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