The Australian reports that a grim weekend for the Coalition has been capped by a bad Newspoll result, with Labor’s two-party lead widening from 54-46 to 55-45 from primary votes of Labor 38% (up one), Coalition 33% (down two), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up one). Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has also widened from 54-28 to 58-26. The report says Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 56% while Peter Dutton is down two to 35%, with no word yet on disapproval. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1500. Update from Adrian Beaumont: Albanese’s disapproval is down three to 35% and Dutton’s disapproval is steady at 48%.
Free strategy advice for the LNP.
Wave everything through for the next year. Support the voice and then fight the next election on tax reform.
From the Aston thread:
Those calling for Dutton’s removal are doing Labor a severe disservice. I got a lot of agro on another blog for suggesting before the 2022 federal election that Labor ought to run dead in Dickson to ensure Dutton’s re-election. Anyone with half a brain could foresee Morrison’s imminent demise and the real threat of Teals to the trendy Lib city seats. After the election, with so few trendies left, Dutton duly became leader of the most right-wing ‘Ill-liberal’ party that would shame even Menzies. Understand this: Dud Dutton from Dickson is the gift that will keep on giving for Labor!
Long may he reign.
Again… wonderful to see.
Dutton’s leadership is terminal, outside of QLD he is electoral poison.
Albanese is a very effective PM, leading a government of very talented individuals, the new MP for Aston the latest recruit.
Oh Dear.
Poor old L’arse: this must be the third peak of Albo now.
Starting to sound like a mountains stage in the Tour De France:
The first peak was the Croix de Covid Lockdown.
The second peak was Le Alpe du Election.
Now Mont Aston.
Albo still wearing the maillot jaune, leaving all competitors, and critics, in his wake.
Apparently, the Subs issue is very unpopular and biting in the community, apparently… 😐
Poor old mr speers looked seriously glum this morning 😆
I am genuinely astonished that Dutton and the Liberals do not get what happened in their urban heartland seats that were lost to the teals (mainly). They have doubled down on the very positions that have lost them one of their core constituencies (indeed their original core constituency).
I believe that a strong Opposition willing to hold the government to account is very important in a democracy, even if I identify very strongly with most left of centre policy positions. But this Opposition is totally weak and not only stands for nothing but opposes for the sake of it in the belief that the way to power is to make things as hard as possible for the Government. Idiots.
And if they end up opposing the voice, they will lose their heartland for a generation, whether the Voice referendum gets up or not.
These poll results – and the Aston by-election – have shown that the majority of uncommitted voters just want good government and the more the Coalition parties oppose stuff just because, the more the current Labor government stands out as the only party capable of governing.
Man – this is one wild honeymoon.
Please lay off Davis Speers, guys. He’s sharp and he’s fair. The best journo in politics at this time.
Longest honeymoon Ive ever known
A_E,
He’s cruising around the high points of Massif Central (Massif Centre-droite?), while the other mob have ditched their bikes and are looking for inspiration from the wall paintings in Lascaux.
Is anyone else thinking that the greens should be doing better?
Greens supporters are the young renter types. You think they’d be getting serious about some housing is better than no housing policy.
Beautiful.
I used to always look forward on a Newspoll Sunday to getting the poll numbers from The Ghost Who Votes.
Does he/she post any more?
Honestly – as I wrote while watching. Speers was having fun this morning, lol.
“Longest honeymoon Ive ever known”
Mrs Murray and I married 2 weeks before moving to the UK and me starting a PhD. I joke that our honeymoon was 4.5 years in Southampton.
>The Ghost Who Votes.
They posted today. But they post only Newspoll and Ipsos (who rarely poll) and Twitter seems to have become more erratic about showing them
Nath and Lars looking forlorn on the mountain with their Liberal banners as the King of the mountain sprints by for the third time this year.
Their boi has “tire” trouble again with the back up team not up for it.
It’s a honeymoon because they’ve (govt) made it so. The fact that they’re getting news stories saying things like “showing a competent govt” “following through on policy promises” “serious gov’t” “adult govt” tells those who don’t sit and watch QT or hang on to every press conference, that after half a generation, there is a finally the prospect of a good govt that will serve them.
I hope the competence and professionalism continues (thus the honeymoon!)
Dear oh dear.
What have the Libs done to deserve 45% 2PP?
I want my 58-42, damnit!
The liberals have been “thug” tested again and a denial is forthcoming.
Lars denies not knowing Dutton wasn’t wearing a helmet after Dutton was photographed next to James Campbell after Roshena crashed on the mountain last night
“WB: The Australian reports that a grim weekend for the Coalition has been capped by a bad Newspoll result, with Labor’s two-party lead widening from 54-46 to 55-45 from primary votes of Labor 38% (up one), Coalition 33% (down two) and Greens 10% (steady). Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has also widened from 54-28 to 58-26. The report says Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 56% while Peter Dutton is down two to 35%, with no word yet on disapproval.
”
LNP: A flesh wound. 🙂
”
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 10:02 pm
Oh Dear.
Poor old L’arse: this must be the third peak of Albo now.
Starting to sound like a mountains stage in the Tour De France:
The first peak was the Croix de Covid Lockdown.
The second peak was Le Alpe du Election.
Now Mont Aston.
Albo still wearing the maillot jaune, leaving all competitors, and critics, in his wake.
”
Albanese peaks are like Swiss Alps. 🙂
Each mountain is so close each other we don’t see the foot of the mountain.
”
davosays:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 10:05 pm
Apparently, the Subs issue is very unpopular and biting in the community, apparently…
”
The Subs can is kicked so far down the road you can’t even see. Out of sight out of mind.
A nice set of numbers: 55-45. It would be great if Labor could achieve that in an actual election. That hasn’t happened Federally since 1946. It’s still great, however, to have a buffer to absorb the slings and arrows of “events” and the mainstream media.
The sample size is 1500, giving a margin of error of about 2½%. The change from the last poll isn’t statistically significant, more “steady as she goes”.
”
Upnorth – A Labor Partisansays:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 10:09 pm
Man – this is one wild honeymoon.
”
Not coming out of the bedroom even after 10 months. 🙂
Moscow targets and kills yet more Ukrainian civilians in a populated city centre:
“Russian forces attacked the downtown of Kostiantynivka in eastern Donetsk Oblast on the morning of April 2, killing at least six civilians and injuring eight.”
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-kostiantynivka-in-donetsk-oblast-killing-3/
Kostiantynivka has a population of about 67,000. Ethnically, it is about 59% Ukrainian and 38% Russian; linguistically, it is about 78% Russian and 21% Ukrainian.
Remember, the Kremlin claimed to be invading Ukraine to ‘protect’ Russians (ethnically and/or linguistically defined, it was not made clear). Yet, this is how they treat a city which is located on what they declare to be their own territory and which is inhabited by so many they regard as ‘Russians’.
This is yet another demonstration that Moscow has come to Ukraine simply to kill as many Ukrainians as they can. It doesn’t even matter to them how many Russians they also kill.
One more thing is for sure: those ethnic and linguistic Russians in Kostiantynivka are treated much better by the Kyiv government than they are by Moscow. It is obvious who they would choose to be governed by if they were to choose again now. Hint: over 80% of them voted ‘yes’ for independence from Moscow in 1991; that number will only be greater now.
”
JenAuthorsays:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 10:34 pm
It’s a honeymoon because they’ve (govt) made it so. The fact that they’re getting news stories saying things like “showing a competent govt” “following through on policy promises” “serious gov’t” “adult govt” tells those who don’t sit and watch QT or hang on to every press conference, that after half a generation, there is a finally the prospect of a good govt that will serve them.
I hope the competence and professionalism continues (thus the honeymoon!)
”
I remember the nauseating Press conferences of Morrison and Joyce (separately of coarse).
They never gave one Press conference together as PM and Deputy PM. ( I digress)
How can the Newspoll show a 3% swing to the ALP since the election but the by-election swing be 6%?
Answer, the situation in Victoria must be atrocious for the Liberals, or the Aston voters wanted to send a very loud message to the Libs, or both.
Dutto claimed on Insiders this morning that he was bringing the team (including Lars) together to attack the mountain
goll says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 11:06 pm
Dutto claimed on Insiders this morning that he was bringing the team (including Lars) together to attack the mountain
____________
He did not say whether they were at the tete de la course or stuck at the arriere du peloton…
“[Oleksiy Danilov, the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council] has outlined a series of steps the government in Kyiv would take after the country reclaimed control of Crimea:
1. Prosecuting Ukrainians who worked for the Moscow-appointed administration in Crimea, adding that some would face criminal charges and others would lose government pensions and be banned from public jobs.
2. Expelling all Russian citizens who moved to Crimea after 2014, and nullifying all property deals made under Russian rule.
3. Dismantling the 12-mile (19km) bridge that Russia built to Crimea [the ‘Kerch Bridge’].”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/apr/02/russia-ukraine-war-live-absurd-and-destructive-for-russia-to-chair-security-council-says-zelenskiy
Good. All of these measures flow logically from the premise that Moscow never had sovereignty over Crimea. This sends a very clear signal to Ukraine’s enemies in Crimea that their own interests are best served by leaving the peninsula ASAP.
Actually, the “preferred Prime Minister” uptick of 4% is statistically significant, or would be if it meant very much.
Unusually, the Australian is quite forthcoming in its lead story, which is about Newspoll. Headline and opening paragraph:
Dutton vows to rebuild as vote slides: Newspoll
Popular support for the federal Coalition has plunged to its lowest level since September in the latest Newspoll as Peter Dutton faces the fallout from the Liberal Party’s historic by-election loss.
Has Rupert or a senior minion decided that Dutton’s a dud?
”
Cronussays:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:03 pm
The failed Credlin Doctrine. This individual has far too much power for somebody so out of touch with the vast majority of Australians. She is shamelessly leading the party into oblivion in her uniquely unselfaware manner.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/conservatives-used-to-think-aston-was-the-liberals-future-20230402-p5cxbw
”
Is Credlin a Labor plant? Nah!
I should not be so nice to her.
Everyone was so engrossed with Aston by-election and NSW State election that nobody craved for Newspoll.
It was reported on Nine that Anthony Albanese was heading to WA from Tasmania. But then had to re-route his trip to go back to Victoria to do a press conference with Mary Doyle. Labor generally were not expecting to win. The internal polling must have been telling them that.
The UK MoD has this assessment of a likely contributing cause of the Russian forces’ dismal performance in their invasion of Ukraine:
“While Russia has suffered up to 200,000 casualties since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a significant minority of these have been due to non-combat causes.
On 27 March 2023, a Russian Telegram news channel reported there have been ‘extremely high’ numbers of incidents, crimes and deaths linked to alcohol consumption amongst the deployed Russian forces.
Other leading causes of non-combat casualties likely include poor weapon handing drills, road traffic accidents and climatic injuries such as hypothermia. Russian commanders likely identify pervasive alcohol abuse as particularly detrimental to combat effectiveness.
However, with heavy drinking pervasive across much of Russian society, it has long been seen as a tacitly accepted part of military life, even on combat operations.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/apr/02/russia-ukraine-war-live-absurd-and-destructive-for-russia-to-chair-security-council-says-zelenskiy
The dismal society they live in under the Kremlin, I guess it’s stay pissed or top themselves. Pity they can’t just stay within their own borders and not bring everyone else down with them.
According to monthly polling of Morning Consult of World leaders Albanese is the third most popular leader in the world after Modi and Mexican President.
https://morningconsult.com/global-leader-approval/
Primaries are Labor 38%, Coalition 33%, Someone Else 29%.
Someone Else is preferencing Labor 17-12.
Someone Else has crossed a threshold percentage of the vote in recent years where they start winning lots of seats. A 2PP of 55-45 no longer means the sort of landslide that might have resulted in past decades (e.g. 1975). An outright victory, let alone a landslide, is harder to achieve. However, the winning party will have a broadly friendly cross-bench.
Hear Hear!
“Last night, just as [Peter Dutton] is saying no to all of the policies that are being put forward, Australians said no to him. And the people of Aston said no to him. In uncertain times, the people of Aston have put their faith in our government.”
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
For those not already a little ‘polled out’ from all the local action of late, Finland is voting right now in their national parliamentary elections. Polls close there at 8:00pm their time, which is at 3:00am EST here.
The Guardian has this piece for context:
“The poll for the public broadcaster Yle, with a margin of error of two percentage points, put the conservative National Coalition party (NCP) on 19.8%, the far-right, nationalist Finns party on 19.5%, and Marin’s Social Democrats on 18.7%.
“At this stage, nobody can know what order the three leading parties will finish in on Sunday,” said Jenni Karimäki, a political historian at the University of Helsinki. “There’s barely a percentage point between them. It could be any of them.”
Karimäki said Marin – who apologised and took a drug test last year, but also defended her right to party, after photos and video emerged of her drinking and dancing with friends – remained more popular than other leaders and her party.
“It is unusual for the party of the outgoing prime minister to still be doing so well this close to an election and that is at least partly because of her popularity,” Karimäki said. “She’s an asset to the SDP. The prime minister’s party usually suffers more.”
A survey for the Helsingin Sanomat newspaper in December found that 64% of respondents felt Marin had done a “very” or “fairly” good job as prime minister. The approval rating even higher among women, at 69%.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/01/finland-election-tight-race-sanna-marin-sdp-ncp-finns
Snappy Tom @ 11.13pm
“He did not say whether they were at the tete de la course or stuck at the arriere du peloton…”
Newspoll answered that query on Dutto’s behalf.
goll says:
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 12:03 am
Snappy Tom @ 11.13pm
“He did not say whether they were at the tete de la course or stuck at the arriere du peloton…”
Newspoll answered that query on Dutto’s behalf.
____________
Right up the arriere.
Cold steel.
They don’t like it up ’em!
Liberals in denial about the cause of the loss? The post honeymoon has been on for a while now.
“One Dutton loyalist in the shadow cabinet blamed the loss on the Albanese government’s post-election honeymoon, the retirement of former member Alan Tudge, infighting in the Victorian branch and Campbell being parachuted into the seat.
“Accumulate all that up and it adds up to a loss. But we would have held the seat if we had had a local candidate,” the MP said.
“It’s a sobering result. It’s bad for confidence, morale, momentum and for Dutton, but we have to be clear-eyed, not emotional.”
Another Dutton loyalist MP said that anyone “rushing to say this is the end of Dutton is wrong”.
“The Victorian division is completely dysfunctional. They dropped an inner-city Liberal into an outer-suburban seat,” the MP said.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-to-stop-dog-whistling-mps-call-for-dutton-to-return-liberal-party-to-centre-20230402-p5cxgg.html
Snappy Tom says:
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 12:07 am
goll says:
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 12:03 am
Snappy Tom @ 11.13pm
“He did not say whether they were at the tete de la course or stuck at the arriere du peloton…”
Newspoll answered that query on Dutto’s behalf.
____________
Right up the arriere.
Cold steel.
They don’t like it up ’em!
____________
Pardon my lack of French / Pardonnez mon manque de français…
Jusqu’à l’arrière.
Acier froid.
Ils ne l’aiment pas!
Politcal Nightwatchman says:
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 12:09 am
Liberals in denial about the cause of the loss? The post honeymoon has been on for a while now.
“One Dutton loyalist in the shadow cabinet blamed the loss on the Albanese government’s post-election honeymoon, the retirement of former member Alan Tudge, infighting in the Victorian branch and Campbell being parachuted into the seat.
“Accumulate all that up and it adds up to a loss. But we would have held the seat if we had had a local candidate,” the MP said.
“It’s a sobering result. It’s bad for confidence, morale, momentum and for Dutton, but we have to be clear-eyed, not emotional.”
Another Dutton loyalist MP said that anyone “rushing to say this is the end of Dutton is wrong”.
“The Victorian division is completely dysfunctional. They dropped an inner-city Liberal into an outer-suburban seat,” the MP said.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/we-need-to-stop-dog-whistling-mps-call-for-dutton-to-return-liberal-party-to-centre-20230402-p5cxgg.html
____________
“…we would have held the seat if we had had a local candidate…”
Keep believing that.
Liberal Party spokesperson presents true reasons for Aston defeat…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4U9Yl5CXvcQ
Liberal shadow minister, quoted in The Age (per Political Nightwatchman):
“The Victorian division is completely dysfunctional.”
NSW Division: ‘Hold my beer!’