Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

Hot on the heels of its drubbing in Aston, the Coalition cops a worsening picture from the first Newspoll in four weeks.

The Australian reports that a grim weekend for the Coalition has been capped by a bad Newspoll result, with Labor’s two-party lead widening from 54-46 to 55-45 from primary votes of Labor 38% (up one), Coalition 33% (down two), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up one). Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has also widened from 54-28 to 58-26. The report says Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 56% while Peter Dutton is down two to 35%, with no word yet on disapproval. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1500. Update from Adrian Beaumont: Albanese’s disapproval is down three to 35% and Dutton’s disapproval is steady at 48%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,116 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. I’m genuinely interested in the WWP question about AI too. I have the ChatGPT4 tool. It’s really great for quickly generating code, and I’ve managed to do really really complex things in a day that might have taken me a week in the past. The whole text to voice thing would have to be getting pretty good.

    The context I think of it is in games. Video games that can fabricate entirely new narratives that could allow games to be unique to every person that plays them. Every new iteration would produce an entirely new and unique experience. Games are already amazingly complex things now. That stuff… blink blink.

    If social media has taught us one thing… it’s that humans are amazingly similar in their way that they synthesize information. We are a lot less unique than we think we are, or at least, collectively are.

  2. Upnorth says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 10:26 pm

    Player One says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 9:41 pm
    Upnorth – A Labor Partisan @ #1046 Tuesday, April 4th, 2023 – 8:11 pm

    So its’ an “industry” now whereas some months ago it was a “cartel”? Hehehe you two jokers crack me up.
    You do know what a “cartel” is, don’t you?

    You might want to look it up.
    中华人民共和国
    Actually you might remember I sent the ACCC link a while ago so you can make a complaint.
    ____________

    It’s an industrial-strength cartel of fossils.

  3. Snappy Tom says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 10:34 pm

    Upnorth says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 10:26 pm

    Player One says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 9:41 pm
    Upnorth – A Labor Partisan @ #1046 Tuesday, April 4th, 2023 – 8:11 pm

    So its’ an “industry” now whereas some months ago it was a “cartel”? Hehehe you two jokers crack me up.
    You do know what a “cartel” is, don’t you?

    You might want to look it up.
    中华人民共和国
    Actually you might remember I sent the ACCC link a while ago so you can make a complaint.
    ____________

    It’s an industrial-strength cartel of fossils.
    中华人民共和国
    Is it the Liberal Party of Australia?

  4. Ukraine has given Russian citizens in Crimea fair warning of their fate once the peninsula is liberated:

    “Citizens of Russia living in occupied Crimea are participants in the war crime of colonisation, so they should leave the peninsula.

    Source: Radio Liberty with reference to Tamila Tasheva, Presidential Representative of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea

    Quote from Tasheva: “And if they do not leave, they must be forcibly deported. This is present in Ukrainian legislation and in any other legislation. If a person illegally crossed the state border, it means that they must be deported. We had several border checkpoints (Kalanchak, Chonhar and Chaplinka) and all these citizens – from 500,000 to 800,000 at least – did not enter through these checkpoints, and so they should turn around on the Kerch bridge and go back. If not, they will be forcibly thrown out.”

    She believes that citizens of the Russian Federation should have left occupied Crimea after the first explosions on the peninsula in the summer of last year.”

    https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/04/4/7396380/

    Russian citizens present in Crimea without the express permission of the Ukrainian Government are illegal colonisers, pure and simple. If caught there by the legitimate Ukrainian authorities once the peninsula is liberated, they will be thrown out on their backsides, like they deserve. Ukraine is showing them much greater human kindness in giving them fair notice to depart – unlike the way Moscow’s invading forces suddenly assaulted Ukrainians peacefully dwelling in their own homes.

  5. Further developments in the story about the Moscow-affiliated Orthodox church where the priest assaulted a Ukrainian soldier, sparking an angry riot by locals:

    “The Khmelnytskyi Сity Сouncil has revoked the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate’s land rights after a military officer was assaulted at their place of worship, Suspilne reported on April 4.

    All 38 council members present at the session voted unanimously in favor of the decision, according to Suspilne.

    On April 2, residents organized a committee and collected signatures to transfer the building and its property to the Orthodox Church of Ukraine following public outrage after a video surfaced of a soldier getting assaulted on its grounds.

    Following the incident, the church held its first service in Ukrainian.

    The video, published by Khmelnytskyi Oblast council member Viktor Burlyk, showed a man in a military uniform being shoved and struck by a man in clerical garb, who is then joined by others that shove the soldier against a wall.

    The soldier can be heard complaining about the Moscow Patriarchate, which effectively operates as the Ukrainian branch of the Russian Orthodox Church. At one point, the soldier is heard saying that he couldn’t breathe.

    Burlyk identified the soldier as Artur Ananiev, a volunteer soldier, who sustained a head injury in combat.”

    https://kyivindependent.com/khmelnytskyi-church-revokes-moscow-church-land-rights/

    It should be patently clear that Moscow’s partisans are, to put it very mildly, not welcome in Ukraine any more. Strong as the results for independence from Moscow were across all of Ukraine in 1991, such sentiment will be even stronger now. This will be so even in Donetsk and Luhansk, both of which voted for independence by more than 80% in 1991, and both of which have been mercilessly attacked by Russian forces this past year.

  6. Enough Already,
    It’s a good threat, I think it’s a feint. Crimea will be a messy fight and I think that they want to cut south easterly on two fronts with tanks across from Kershon to melitolpol to create pressure on crimea.
    At the same time. A norther offensive will capture Karkiv and fortify there. and then their tanks will right wheel down to to link up to and capture mauripol. At this point, there’ll be a regroup. A lot of talk and then either Crimea goes easy or it goes hard.

    If they’re lucky the Ukrainians get all that done in 2-4 months. Otherwise they fight till xmas and we wait for more war next year.

  7. Upnorth – A Labor Partisan says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 10:36 pm

    Snappy Tom says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 10:34 pm

    Upnorth says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 10:26 pm

    Player One says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 9:41 pm
    Upnorth – A Labor Partisan @ #1046 Tuesday, April 4th, 2023 – 8:11 pm

    So its’ an “industry” now whereas some months ago it was a “cartel”? Hehehe you two jokers crack me up.
    You do know what a “cartel” is, don’t you?

    You might want to look it up.
    中华人民共和国
    Actually you might remember I sent the ACCC link a while ago so you can make a complaint.
    ____________

    It’s an industrial-strength cartel of fossils.
    中华人民共和国
    Is it the Liberal Party of Australia?
    ____________

    The political wing of the industrial-strength cartel of fossils.

  8. I just caught up with the excellent news that the catholic church lost their appeal against the vicarious liability decision for child clerical abuse in Victoria. Finally, abuse victims are seeing some justice.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-04/potential-abuse-liability-catholic-church-court-of-appeal-ruling/102184904

    Perhaps some day in the not to distant future, when a catholic noviciate takes their vow of poverty, he will have to mean it.

  9. SnappyTom: “The political wing of the industrial-strength cartel of fossils.”

    This one of them green/red things, isn’t it?

  10. Socrates

    There was an interview with a Finnish prof re elections and Putin’s war on RN Late Night Live. Repeated Wed I believe.

  11. Pisays:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 10:33 pm
    I’m genuinely interested in the WWP question about AI too. I have the ChatGPT4 tool. It’s really great for quickly generating code, and I’ve managed to do really really complex things in a day that might have taken me a week in the past. The whole text to voice thing would have to be getting pretty good.
    ———————–
    You should ask ChatGPT to prove what you can’t.

  12. Pi says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 11:34 pm

    SnappyTom: “The political wing of the industrial-strength cartel of fossils.”

    This one of them green/red things, isn’t it?
    ____________

    More jest.

    One of the many things I enjoy about the Austin Powers movies is the introduction of Frau Farbissina, “…founder of the militant wing of the Salvation Army…”

    https://clip.cafe/austin-powers-international-man-of-mystery-1997/founder-leader-of-the-militant-wing-of-the-salvation-army/

    Always tickles my funny bone.

    If the Salvos can have a militant wing, the fossil cartel can have a political wing!

  13. C@t,

    You asked for proof of Albo’s commitment to a million homes , so here you go

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11350437/Anthony-Albaneses-government-announces-plan-build-one-million-homes.html

    Re-read what I posted – I never once advocated for the greens housing policy, I simply make the point that housing in this country is broken, and that the HFF as a policy is grossly insufficient to address even the current waiting list for social housing and homelessness, much less do anything about affordability and housing in general.

    I actually advocated for an everything on the table summit to try and come to an accord/grand bargain on housing

    As usual the Labor sycophants on this blog ignore the substance, assume that if you’re against ALP policy you’re a green, and defend ALP policy as perfect and also the only possible solution to the issue at hand

    The HFF is pure neoliberalism, and an insult to all Australians struggling with housing, especially given the huge immigration and foreign student intake the ALP is targeting which will completely swamp the paltry 30k homes that the HFF might ‘incentivise’ to be constructed

  14. The Greens housing policy can be summed up as:

    At federal level- make noise about building tens of thousands of social/public housing dwellings.

    At state level – Make vague statements and announcements about ‘the need for more social /public housing.’

    At local level – oppose Development Applications for new social/public housing developments and launch local NIMBY campaigns against then.

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