Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

Hot on the heels of its drubbing in Aston, the Coalition cops a worsening picture from the first Newspoll in four weeks.

The Australian reports that a grim weekend for the Coalition has been capped by a bad Newspoll result, with Labor’s two-party lead widening from 54-46 to 55-45 from primary votes of Labor 38% (up one), Coalition 33% (down two), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up one). Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has also widened from 54-28 to 58-26. The report says Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 56% while Peter Dutton is down two to 35%, with no word yet on disapproval. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1500. Update from Adrian Beaumont: Albanese’s disapproval is down three to 35% and Dutton’s disapproval is steady at 48%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,116 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. It’s possible that Dutton is asking his party room to make the decision to support or not, which would be a novel experience.

  2. Antony Green….

    Ryde update – Labor has gained maybe 60 votes with the counting of 473 Absent votes. Liberal lead probably under 100 votes now.

  4. ”
    C@tmommasays:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 8:04 pm
    Cronus @ #1038 Tuesday, April 4th, 2023 – 7:54 pm

    “ Asked if the party would stop asking for further information on the referendum, Archer responded: “I should hope so, there has never been a lack of detail.”

    Ouch! Did you hear that Dutts?

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-calls-snap-meeting-of-mps-to-decide-liberals-voice-stance-20230404-p5cy1h.html

    And Julian ‘Turncoat’ Leeser.
    ”

    C@tmomma
    He is the demonstrable example of so-called Liberal moderate ( which Cronus was discussing), who is more interested their position in party than doing something for Australian people but in the end taken out by a Teal.

  5. ”
    PageBoisays:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 8:21 pm
    @BW

    Jesus, you do recall that Albo himself promised a million houses during the campaign
    ”

    No he did not. If you have proof can you please provide the link?

    Pageboi
    You have to understand that even if Australian government provides $10 millions Greens ask for million houses, Australia does not have the workforce to build that many houses in the time frame.

  6. Ven says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 8:04 pm

    ”
    sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 7:52 pm
    George Simon is Assistant General Secretary of the NSW Labor Party.

    Just posted his status…

    When I die shortly my tombstone will read: Passed away doing what he loved most. Scrutineering Ryde absentee ballots.
    ”

    I hope NSW Labor wins Ryde.
    中华人民共和国
    I once scrutineered for the full 10 plus recount in a QLD seat called “Mindingburra”. We won it by 16 votes in the end (Labor Rat Ken Davies was declared the winner). It enabled Goss to claim a third term and form Government. 45 Labor, 43 Tories and 1 Independent (Liz Cunningham)

    The Tories took the vote to the Court of Disputed Returns and a Joh appointed Judge ordered a new election. Ken Davies was dis-endorsed, popular Townsville Mayor Tony Mooney selecetd to run for Labor with Rat Davies as an independent sending preferences to the Tories. The Tories did an MOU with the Police Union for support and lots of mud thrown.

    However Mooney was bloody popular and a good candidate. Things were looking good and John Uttings’ tracking poll pointed to a win. However on the Sunday before the byelection Keating called the 1996 election. Our oxygen was sucked away. Mooney went on to lose and Goss gave one of the best speeches I ever heard after the loss.

    Liz Cunningham went on to support the Tories and Rob Borbidge became Premier. Luckily for Queensland they were “one hit wonders”. Labor won Mundingburra at the next election, Peter Beattie became Premier and the rest so they say is history!

  7. ” Antony Green….

    Ryde update – Labor has gained maybe 60 votes with the counting of 473 Absent votes. Liberal lead probably under 100 votes now.“

    Absents make the heart grow fonder…

  8. So one of you labor luvvies needs to explain to the minister that it is, in part at least, her job to defend Australia from cyber attacks.

    And as for the WA Govt they’ve only had 6 years, you wouldn’t have expected them to develop the strategy to start rolling out in their 15th term yet.

    Look they are possibly the best deeply conservative, trickle down economics, right wing Govt WA has ever had but they are about as progressive as Margaret Thatcher, they would be hoping no one expects them to do anything about any crisis and in terms of crisis they’d actually like to deal with, wait no there are none of them.

  10. So because of the greens we not getting 33 000 social houses. I am sure there will be 33,000 upset families as a result, but it is not as bad as stopping action on climate change for 10 years, which was the result of their last act of extreme stupidity.

  11. https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/04/02/newspoll-55-45-to-labor-open-thread-3/comment-page-22/#comment-4092424

    Hmmm, last time I checked, minor parties and independents are between a quarter to a third of the vote, so I reckon … major parties are to blame?

    (And for the record I like shit lite, with aspirations to be full of shit, in minority NSW state gov be it legislature [or minor parties and independents in power, and have council balanced the other way …

    Especially, with seemingly wall to wall red Liebor/ blue Libs lite, be it federal, state/ territories except for TAS, or local gov, so drop national ‘cabinet’ and let’s get back to COAG.)

  12. A million houses , a house a million families. There is 2.59 people per family.
    Australia had an average household size of 2.59 people in 2021. The indicator recorded a year-on-year decline of 1.1% in 2021. Between 2010 and 2021, the indicator decreased by 1.9%. The average household size in Australia was highest in the year 2011 and lowest in the year 2021, between 2010 and 2021.

    2.59 million people. Australia population is 25.69 million.
    In other words the Greens are asking for enough house to house 10% of the population.

    Of the 122,494 people experiencing homelessness in Australia in 2021: Two in five (39.1%) were living in ‘severely’ crowded dwellings. One in five (19.8%) were in supported accommodation for the homeless. One in six (18.1%) living in boarding houses.

    What exactly are the greens smoking?

  14. “ Moscow says Finland’s NATO membership is an assault on Russia’s security.”

    What do they say the Winter War was?

  17. Rossmcg @ #1050 Tuesday, April 4th, 2023 – 8:16 pm

    I think the snap meeting is the shadow cabinet.
    As I read it the party room meeting was called then somebody realised the leaders had to have a proposition to put to that meeting.
    Dutton and Leeser need to work up the script for a No in the party room.
    Will archer and others dissent?
    It’s a unicorn meeting.
    Designed to distract from Aston.

    Very much so. The Aston By-election loss was so 3 days ago.

  19. Spending $500m on social housing (if it is that) is tokenism frednk when the shortfall in social housing is approximately 100,000 houses and when NRAS (representing 27,000 rental properties) isnt being renewed.

    Labor is good for property speculators though.

  21. Moscow has never accepted the independent sovereignty of the nations bordering it, at least not since Peter I. This bluster of theirs over Finland joining NATO is as surprising as the news that April 5 will follow April 4. It is a transparent attempt to distract from the abject failure of Putin’s declared foreign policy aim in launching his foul invasion of Ukraine.


  23. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 9:14 pm

    Spending $500m on social housing (if it is that) is tokenism frednk when the shortfall in social housing is approximately 100,000 houses and when NRAS (representing 27,000 rental properties) isnt being renewed.

    Labor is good for property speculators though.

    So the solution is to have no social housing?
    Not trying to defend the million figure?

    House have to be built, you don’t wave a wand and have them appear. Labor put forward a policy that has a sensible number built each year, the greens block it with nonsense and you come out and support their nonsense by pointing there is a need for the build.

    It is hard to award the nonsense award on this issue, the Greens and the Liberals are in tight competition.

  25. nath
    That’s a pretty ordinary epitaph, although it may well be accurate.

    I am going to go out on a limb here and suggest that Mr Simon was making a joke.

  26. https://www.pollbludger.net/2023/04/02/newspoll-55-45-to-labor-open-thread-3/comment-page-22/#comment-4092423

    Hmmm, interesting.
    I grew up in NATO’s Western Europe during the Cold War.
    Civil defence drills every month.
    Losing friends in air force (training) crashes.
    Graduated from uni the same year the Berlin Wall came down.
    Didn’t need a Clancy to figure out that the Sovs having breakfast in Berlin, lunch in Paris, dinner/ supper in Barcelona wasn’t all that real, especially soft power …

  27. We are a wealthy country frednk – no disabled people should be without support and no one should be homeless.

    You cant argue we’ll have 5% less homeless is an acceptable solution. It’s shameful.

  28. Labor isn’t serious about housing and rental affordability. In fact they can’t be, because the immediate palliative, reducing immigration levels to something less berserk, is something they won’t countenance because it runs opposite to their core ideology.

  30. Also why does Labor (and for that matter Liberal) support foreign ownership of residential property? Surely we could reserve domestic property for Australian citizens and maybe Kiwis?

  33. Lars Von Trier
    So we have moved from homeless to disabled.

    I know for a fact that we are building for the disabled because I have done an electrical design for a building designed for NDIS tenants. They are different. They have to accommodate the support staff.

    I have also been involved in the electrical design for a building to support the Melbourne homeless, they are also different as they contain office space for the support staff, medial and dental services.

    Low cost housing to replace the old and lost housing commission housing is a totally different animal.

    A solution that offers a steady build if far far superior to a pipe dream.

  34. Frednk – NDIS is growing at 14% per annum. As far as I can tell Labor is prepared to fully fund this and to find the money.

    Yet for undisabled homeless its funding 5% of the level of homelessness.

    You seem to think thats acceptable. if there is the national will surely we can make sure disabled and homeless are looked after?

  35. based on 5% (and assuming no increase in the level of homelessness) frednk your suggesting in about 20 years time we can solve the homeless backlog.

    Maybe some of them will die in the meantime from being homeless and you can claim an earlier success?


  36. Historyintime says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 9:36 pm

    Labor isn’t serious about housing and rental affordability. In fact they can’t be, because the immediate palliative, reducing immigration levels to something less berserk, is something they won’t countenance because it runs opposite to their core ideology.

    Be vary careful interpreting immigration numbers, the current number being spruiked includes student visas, you know those people needed to support our education industry.

  41. Newspoll out on the Voice.

    49% in favour QLD, 51% in WA and 55% in TAS.

    Even if the undecideds break in favour it wont exceed 65% in those states.

  44. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 9:57 pm

    Newspoll out on the Voice.

    49% in favour QLD, 51% in WA and 55% in TAS.

    Even if the undecideds break in favour it wont exceed 65% in those states.

    A majority is 50% who cares for 65%.
    It looks the the majority of states support it.

    The liberals are going to face failure again, tough tittles.

  45. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 9:39 pm

    Also why does Labor (and for that matter Liberal) support foreign ownership of residential property? Surely we could reserve domestic property for Australian citizens and maybe Kiwis?
    ____________

    Years ago a mate of mine bought a t-shirt: “I support two teams: Australia and whoever is playing the All Blacks.”

  46. LVT: ” the Voice”

    Racists of Australia unite! Or… as they say… rise up?

    Who the hell is Albanese? No-one is going to trust them to run a multi-trillion dollar economy. Dan stands no chance with all of the anger in Victoria. He’s finished when the voting starts. NSW is never going to be a big enough swing for the ALP to win there. The LNP deserves to win for the way they run the state.

    The voice is going to be a simple question; Do you stand with the bigots? Or do you stand against the bigots. This ‘muh kwestiuns’ narrative isn’t coming from anyone who understands the question. Australia, by our own laws, stole the land from the people who lived here. The people who used to own this place don’t want revenge. They’re better than me. What they want is a voice. Then we can talk about reconciliation.

    The racists know this. That’s why they’re against it.

  47. Lars Von Trier says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 10:00 pm

    Frednk – if you cant do basic mathematics I am not sure I can help you. Maybe ask a family member for help?

    5% of 25 million is 1.25 million. That is 1,250,000. That as an engineering approximation is 10 times 116,000. Now if you want to start discussing 0.5% then I will accept you have a useful number.

    5% is utter nonsense and a determination to stick to the nonsense indicates you are seriously enjoying the Greens donation.

  48. Lars Von Trier
    5% is 1 in 20, have a little think about it Lars, is 1 in 20 Australian sleeping on the street?
    1 in 200 is possible and is an issue. Labors policy consumes resources that are available and addresses the issue.

  49. Player One says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 9:41 pm
    Upnorth – A Labor Partisan @ #1046 Tuesday, April 4th, 2023 – 8:11 pm

    So its’ an “industry” now whereas some months ago it was a “cartel”? Hehehe you two jokers crack me up.
    You do know what a “cartel” is, don’t you?

    You might want to look it up.
    中华人民共和国
    Actually you might remember I sent the ACCC link a while ago so you can make a complaint.

  50. What keeps Trump afloat? He seems to be exempt from the usual constraints. He survives revelations, stuffups and scandals which by the standards applied to everyone else would have sunk any political career.

    Maybe this explains it:

    Ditto other Right Wing populists. In particular, as posted a few pages back, reports of the death of the Liberal Party are exaggerated.

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