Click here for full Aston by-election results updated live.
Sunday
7pm. More postal votes have been added, the later ones being weaker for the Liberals than the first, being only 1876-1839 to their advantage and leaving the Labor lead all but unchanged at 6342. The electronic assisted votes have also been added, of which there were a grand total of 22. That should leave us with about 4000 postals and a handful of provisionals, and there’s no reason to think either will change the size of Labor’s lead. I have now cleaned up the remaining bugs in my results, including the one that was preventing a swing on the preference flows from showing. Labor’s share has gone from 60% to 63.6%, reflecting the fact that the United Australia Party and One Nation were in the field last time. It may be noted that Pauline Hanson’s assertion that One Nation was sitting out the contest as a strategic move to harm Labor yielded no appreciable dividend.
11am. The first and biggest batch of postals have broken 3642-3065 to Liberal, and while this is a relatively modest swing of 1.0% to Labor, it only cuts the margin from 6466 to 6124.
Saturday
End of night. Election day and pre-poll booths ended up producing remarkably similar swings, at 6.3% and 6.5% on two-party preferred and barely less similar on the primary vote. We can seemingly still expect something approaching 20,000 postal votes, which will assuredly bite into the current margin of 6466, but not by nearly enough to overturn Labor’s remarkable win. The only other categories of outstanding vote are provisionals and electronic assisted votes, of which there will be barely more than a few hundred. It was a bit of a horror night for my election results page, partly because my system needs more work before it can handle two elections at the same time — work I haven’t had time to do over the past week. I’ve now patched it up to the extent that it’s more or less doing its job, providing booth results and swings neatly laid out in the table and on a map display you can view by clicking the link at the bottom of the page.
9.10pm. Three of the four pre-poll booths have reported their results in quick succession, and they have entirely dispelled the notion that the Liberals could hope for a late miracle.
8.40pm. All the ordinary booths have reported on both two-party and primary, which is pretty fast work. Presumably we’ll be getting big pre-poll results later in the evening. I notice that there aren’t raw two-candidate numbers on the AEC site, so perhaps it’s not just me. The “projections” shown on my results page are actually the raw results, and the zero swings shown for two-candidate preferred and preferences are fudges I’ve put in.
8.19pm. There are still a few issues with my display, notably the swings on the two-party preferred table, but after the insertion of a few fudges it’s mostly doing it’s job. So to finally comment on the actual numbers, what we have here is a grim night for the Liberal Party, who will need something extraordinary on pre-poll votes and postals to pull it out of the fire. It should be noted though that they just about did so in Wentworth after it was called for them quite early on the night, and that last week’s New South Wales election wasn’t as bad for them as it first appeared owing to a better dynamic for them on pre-polls.
8.11pm. I’ve finally ironed out the problem that was producing screwy primary vote swings and projections. Seemingly though there’s some other problem with the swings in the two-candidate preferred table.
7.32pm. It’s not a good night for my live results — bits of it are working but bits aren’t. Just use it for looking at booths results until I advise further.
7.15pm. My Boronia East two-party results aren’t adding up, but this was a booth where there appeared to be little swing on the primary vote.
7.11pm. The Wantirna South booth is now in, and it’s an intriguingly strong result for Labor, but there’s a 10% swing to Labor there, and the ABC TV coverage relates that Kos Samaras is hearing of consistent swings to Labor.
6.55pm. The first result is in from Rowville East, where both parties are up about 5% on the primary vote.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Aston by-election. Through the above link you will find live updated results, including full booth details in both tabular and map display and swing-based projections and probability estimates. This post will offer live commentary as the results come through, the first of which I imagine will be in about 45 minutes or so.
Mr Bowe noted above that “The first and biggest batch of postals have broken 3642-3065 to Liberal…” That is a difference of just under 600, but currently the difference has been reduced to just 70 (6688 to 6618), so the later postals have broken 3040-3553, almost the opposite to the first batch.
Is there any particular reason the later postals would differ so much from the first ones?
Just caught up with this arvo’s posts. I too thought Nath’s closing comment about the Libs being eager to punish was revealing. It seems to me to be what is labelled “a Freudian slip”.
Only someone who is simpatico with the Lib’s ” Dieu et Mon Droit” self- belief would use such terminology.
Furthermore, it reveals that the Libs religious leanings are more towards the Old Testament, with its God of Wrath and Retribution, rather than the New Testaments themes of love, charity and forgiveness that they fervently espouse in public.
Snappy, am I misconstruing the themes of the Old Testament here?
Fargo – Mr Bowe’s comment referred to the 1st preferences, not 2pp. From memory, after preferences, Campbell gained around 300 votes from the first batch of postals, so it can be deduced that the postals counted today favoured Doyle. Why that should be so is impossible to say with certainty, but there is a view that is sometimes expressed on the late counting threads on this site that later postals are less favourable to the Liberals than the early counted votes.
Gettysburg1863 says:
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 5:46 pm
Just caught up with this arvo’s posts. I too thought Nath’s closing comment about the Libs being eager to punish was revealing. It seems to me to be what is labelled “a Freudian slip”.
Only someone who is simpatico with the Lib’s ” Dieu et Mon Droit” self- belief would use such terminology.
Furthermore, it reveals that the Libs religious leanings are more towards the Old Testament, with its God of Wrath and Retribution, rather than the New Testaments themes of love, charity and forgiveness that they fervently espouse in public.
Snappy, am I misconstruing the themes of the Old Testament here?
____________
Certainly more blood & gore in the OT…and, I suspect, the Liberal Party room!
Alongside blood/gore, the OT contains an important ‘underside’ theme: the coming about of divine purposes DESPITE the people/institutions of God.
To a degree, this underside theme reaches a pinnacle in the NT with the crucifixion of Jesus.
It turns out love, charity and forgiveness aren’t implemented by overwhelming force, but from the ‘underside’.
Gettysburg1863 says:
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 5:46 pm
Just caught up with this arvo’s posts. I too thought Nath’s closing comment about the Libs being eager to punish was revealing
Mike Carlton always referred to the Libs as ‘punishers and straighteners’. If you don’t conform to their standards they have ways and means of letting you know.
Just had a look at Aston results so far…
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-28791-197.htm
The margin seems to bounce around either side of 6500 as postal votes are counted – Coalition getting surprisingly little improvement out of this category so far.
I not no Absent or Provisional votes are yet recorded. Do these usually favour the Coalition, like postals?
Or, could the margin in favour of Labor be improved by these other categories?
Snappy Tomsays:
Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 10:46 am
Just had a look at Aston results so far…
I not no Absent or Provisional votes are yet recorded. Do these usually favour the Coalition, like postals?
******
There wont be any Absent votes, Snappy. Nowhere to vote Absentee
In Federal elections, only a small number of provisional and declaration votes usually end up being counted, but those that do tend to favour Labor.
It doesn’t appear that Labor’s winning margin will go down much from here, if at all, and should end up around 53.5% on 2PP.
I note there are another 493 postal votes on hand, waiting to be counted by the AEC.
“No one has been a bigger supporter of Albo on here than me. Back when Shorten was leader it was I who predicted that Albo would lead the ALP to victory and was the clear obvious leader.
At the time some current ALP partisans used to mock Albo, call him a ‘disaster’, a ‘crook’, and much else. That was not me.”
@Nath
Crap Nath. The amount times you delved into leadershit when Albanese was opposition leader was countless.
You would wheel out how Shorten would find a away to topple Albo. Even when pointed out the leadership rules that made it very unlikely Shorten to get that kind of support.
This crap your running with now ‘I supported Albo all along’ is garbage.
As far as I can tell, the aec last updated Aston 9.50 this morning. Nothing more today?
Outsider – Thankyou for your response above.
New thread.