Click here for full Aston by-election results updated live.
Sunday
7pm. More postal votes have been added, the later ones being weaker for the Liberals than the first, being only 1876-1839 to their advantage and leaving the Labor lead all but unchanged at 6342. The electronic assisted votes have also been added, of which there were a grand total of 22. That should leave us with about 4000 postals and a handful of provisionals, and there’s no reason to think either will change the size of Labor’s lead. I have now cleaned up the remaining bugs in my results, including the one that was preventing a swing on the preference flows from showing. Labor’s share has gone from 60% to 63.6%, reflecting the fact that the United Australia Party and One Nation were in the field last time. It may be noted that Pauline Hanson’s assertion that One Nation was sitting out the contest as a strategic move to harm Labor yielded no appreciable dividend.
11am. The first and biggest batch of postals have broken 3642-3065 to Liberal, and while this is a relatively modest swing of 1.0% to Labor, it only cuts the margin from 6466 to 6124.
Saturday
End of night. Election day and pre-poll booths ended up producing remarkably similar swings, at 6.3% and 6.5% on two-party preferred and barely less similar on the primary vote. We can seemingly still expect something approaching 20,000 postal votes, which will assuredly bite into the current margin of 6466, but not by nearly enough to overturn Labor’s remarkable win. The only other categories of outstanding vote are provisionals and electronic assisted votes, of which there will be barely more than a few hundred. It was a bit of a horror night for my election results page, partly because my system needs more work before it can handle two elections at the same time — work I haven’t had time to do over the past week. I’ve now patched it up to the extent that it’s more or less doing its job, providing booth results and swings neatly laid out in the table and on a map display you can view by clicking the link at the bottom of the page.
9.10pm. Three of the four pre-poll booths have reported their results in quick succession, and they have entirely dispelled the notion that the Liberals could hope for a late miracle.
8.40pm. All the ordinary booths have reported on both two-party and primary, which is pretty fast work. Presumably we’ll be getting big pre-poll results later in the evening. I notice that there aren’t raw two-candidate numbers on the AEC site, so perhaps it’s not just me. The “projections” shown on my results page are actually the raw results, and the zero swings shown for two-candidate preferred and preferences are fudges I’ve put in.
8.19pm. There are still a few issues with my display, notably the swings on the two-party preferred table, but after the insertion of a few fudges it’s mostly doing it’s job. So to finally comment on the actual numbers, what we have here is a grim night for the Liberal Party, who will need something extraordinary on pre-poll votes and postals to pull it out of the fire. It should be noted though that they just about did so in Wentworth after it was called for them quite early on the night, and that last week’s New South Wales election wasn’t as bad for them as it first appeared owing to a better dynamic for them on pre-polls.
8.11pm. I’ve finally ironed out the problem that was producing screwy primary vote swings and projections. Seemingly though there’s some other problem with the swings in the two-candidate preferred table.
7.32pm. It’s not a good night for my live results — bits of it are working but bits aren’t. Just use it for looking at booths results until I advise further.
7.15pm. My Boronia East two-party results aren’t adding up, but this was a booth where there appeared to be little swing on the primary vote.
7.11pm. The Wantirna South booth is now in, and it’s an intriguingly strong result for Labor, but there’s a 10% swing to Labor there, and the ABC TV coverage relates that Kos Samaras is hearing of consistent swings to Labor.
6.55pm. The first result is in from Rowville East, where both parties are up about 5% on the primary vote.
6pm. Polls have closed for the Aston by-election. Through the above link you will find live updated results, including full booth details in both tabular and map display and swing-based projections and probability estimates. This post will offer live commentary as the results come through, the first of which I imagine will be in about 45 minutes or so.
Thought – you’d have to imagine Frydenberg was watching the by-election coverage feeling smug that he didn’t run and become the fall guy for this loss, in spite of the various Lib functionaries no doubt trying to tell him that him running in Aston to get back into Parliament was an A grade idea.
but the liberals have little tallint lecer lost credability calling for voice now in shadow cabenit campaigning against it tayler is damaged and liy is about as convincing as michaelia cash who is so over the top she is difficult to take serously on ir she said the ir changis would distroy the economy she should be managed out dutton realy only apeels to the hard core conservatives 2 gb and sky he has no apeel unles your raceist or a hard right liberal at leatst howards background could apeel to working clas voters dutton how ever is unelectable
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 4:00 pm
Albo toils ceaselessly for the masses, I have it on good authority that if you walk past kirribilli house you can see the light on in the PM’s study in the early hours of the morning.
When ordinary people are sleeping at 3am in the morning , Albo is thinking and planning about the needs and worries of Australian workers and peasants.
”
Don’t be stupid.
Lars’ references to workers and peasants demonstrates exactly the kind of attitude that keeps the Liberals out of power.
”
B.S. Fairmansays:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 4:30 pm
Everyone within the Liberal party is claiming that nothing was a factor.
The candidate was a great candidate, Dutton’s leadership was not a factor, the Deeming affair had nothing to do with says Pesutto and Tudge had been such a great local member.
Yet they lost…..
I will file these under “Lies they tell themself”.
”
What they imply is that people are stupid. Further implication is that why are people denying people who are entitled to be in power for ever.
Labor barely making it to majority government federally and minority government in NSW is not commanding heights of Australian politics that some think it is. The Liberals will be back at some point and eager to punish.
nath says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:13 pm
Labor barely making it to majority government federally and minority government in NSW is not commanding heights of Australian politics that some think it is. The Liberals will be back at some point and eager to punish.
—————————-
How apt, punishing is what the Libs do best. Nobody ever accused them of building or uniting.
Snappy Tom says: “I think they know it, but they value Right wing control of the Party over electoral success.
Never seen this in the Liberals until recent years.
Still can’t believe it.”
—–
If they believe you will always get government after Labor loses it, they’re in the driver’s seat.
Maintain control then sit back for power to fall in your lap.
That’s their thinking, possibly…
nath @ Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:13 pm
“Labor barely making it to majority government federally and minority government in NSW is not commanding heights of Australian politics that some think it is. The Liberals will be back at some point and eager to punish.”
=============
In the meantime, sit back and enjoy some competency in government for a while, at least on the mainland. 🙂
nath says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:13 pm
Labor barely making it to majority government federally and minority government in NSW is not commanding heights of Australian politics that some think it is. The Liberals will be back at some point and eager to punish.
____________
The unusual feature of the federal election – the Coalition got royally smashed but Labor didn’t win bigly.
Labor have just slightly increased their majority by winning Aston*.
What do the Libs require to win majority govt? 20 extra seats.
*One of the two worst performances by an opposition in the history of federal by-elections.
its good finaly nath admited he is a liberal now at leastwill stop the claim he is a progresive who just happins to agree with the liberals on evrything how ever the maybi we can have liberal stooges now its no big deal dutton is so unpopular nsw liberal party told him to stay away from campaigning with them because he is so unpopular and liberal mps dont want to admit hes there leader but evry thing fine dutton is made no impact at all againstlabor
Cronus says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:29 pm
nath says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:13 pm
Labor barely making it to majority government federally and minority government in NSW is not commanding heights of Australian politics that some think it is. The Liberals will be back at some point and eager to punish.
—————————-
How apt, punishing is what the Libs do best. Nobody ever accused them of building or uniting.
____________
The Liberals like to combine punishment and reward: punish people struggling with poverty, reward people who are already rich and powerful.
nath says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:13 pm
Labor barely making it to majority government federally and minority government in NSW is not commanding heights of Australian politics that some think it is. The Liberals will be back at some point and eager to punish.
————————–
Believe it or not Labor are in a better position
Labor after 2022 federal election 78 seats
Lib/nats after 2016 federal election 75 seats, 2019 federal election 74 seats
dont know whiy the nats run in a coalition whenthere basickly the same party they winn seats in the country buy claiming labor does not invest in reajonal arias because the inner city this helps the liberals win because the nats claim to be a seperate party desbite them never ever going to support labor once nats mp didand the federal party were not happy
Scotty – have you been to the police about the corrupt media people stalking you?
when Lib/nats were retained in 2016 they had 76 seats , when the Lib/nat were retained in 2019 they had 77 seats
It seems Lib/nats after the federal election trend is to lose seats , while in government or opposition
Lars Von Trier
Is Ian Goodenough to be the federal liberal party leader, if the federal liberal party is looking to change pathways
maybi we need reform of the media it is hard to defend the abc when Speers was not happy that labor won the bi election heplus there was the big deal made buy the liberals and there so called independents di le about kenearley being parashuted but when same thing happins to Campbell its negative campaign pointing Dutton is negative and is the opposition leader is attackingh him because dutton ran a very positive campaignhe is so out of tuch in his first pres conference as leader he said we dont have to develop policy will just wait for labor to fall apart as were the natural party of government pine made a joke about this when he retired it seems the liberals just think they can winn with out trying worked in 2013 but then abottdid not know what to do
Aaron newtonsays:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:34 pm
its good finaly nath admited he is a liberal now at leastwill stop the claim he is a progresive who just happins to agree with the liberals on evrything
________________
I have not admitted I am a Liberal and rarely agree with anything a Liberal politician says. You are clearly not reading my posts, or if you are then you must be a slow learner.
nath
In both those cases, it wasn’t Labor ahead of the Liberals by a nose, as it traditionally is in close elections.
Good enough is a christian conservative like hastey a strongdutton suporter andchristian conservative he nelly lost his seatat the last federal election of more part of the dominant clan faction collier still in charge desbite leading the party in to a wipe out state and federal also mentored the great tallint michaelia cash who has to have the most anoying voice in politics says somthing about wa libs they have not managed out cash and renyolds
Federal Labor does hold 26 of 47 NSW HoR seats. If that win rate was applied across the nation, Labor would hold 83 (not the current 78).
18
24
24
26
As I said, NSW voters have forgiven; don’t mess it up.
Snappy Tom says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:33 pm
nath says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:13 pm
Labor barely making it to majority government federally and minority government in NSW is not commanding heights of Australian politics that some think it is. The Liberals will be back at some point and eager to punish.
____________
The unusual feature of the federal election – the Coalition got royally smashed but Labor didn’t win bigly.
Labor have just slightly increased their majority by winning Aston*.
What do the Libs require to win majority govt? 20 extra seats.
*One of the two worst performances by an opposition in the history of federal by-elections.
————————————-
Ouch, agree. And there are those who assume (because they know no better) that Australian politics will continue to be merely a two-horse race meaning return to power is just a matter of time. They are incapable of imagining that there may in fact be another way, another paradigm, that other parties and independents too will grow.
It’s plausible that the Libs may barely exist in 20 years time and that even Labor might struggle in 50 years time if it doesn’t continue to evolve and adapt (which it will). One of the two parties at least understands broader community sentiment, the other party simply ignores it regardless.
‘I have not admitted I am a Liberal…’
Scott says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:36 pm
nath says:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:13 pm
Labor barely making it to majority government federally and minority government in NSW is not commanding heights of Australian politics that some think it is. The Liberals will be back at some point and eager to punish.
————————–
Believe it or not Labor are in a better position
Labor after 2022 federal election 78 seats
Lib/nats after 2016 federal election 75 seats, 2019 federal election 74 seats
——————————————————-
Proof that the trend is our friend. Built slowly but surely on strong foundations and majority values.
Goodenough party leader?
fantasy stuff.
Quite apart from the fact that he has never shown any talent for anything other than branch stacking
despite alleged control the branches, he nearly lost endorsement (winning 39-36 over Vince Connelly who had held the abolished seat of Stirling).
And the the voters nearly punted him.
He a very wealthy man and probably funds his own campaign but I’d be surprised if he ran again.
zoomstersays:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:45 pm
‘I have not admitted I am a Liberal…’
__________
I think you are closer to being a Liberal than I am. For a start you heartily endorsed Howard’s single mother policy which has driven more children into poverty. You also support S3 tax cuts for the wealthy. I could go on.
Scott, maybe people from the corrupt media are following you on PB too? Or they could be at the checkout behind you in Woolies?
You’ve been selflessly calling out there methods here- they could be planning a square-up?
Sounds like Cronus version of the Nicene Creed.
I’ve recycled here previously the American aphorism that “When Democrats lose, they get sad; when Republicans lose, they get mad.”
Sky News is our version of “getting mad.” (In a couple of senses, actually.)
“Getting mad” in America means gaming their eminently-gameable electoral system; installing minority rule as the norm. The last 2 Republican Presidents to win the popular vote, for instance, were Bush jnr in 2004 and Bush snr in 1988. Twice since 1988.
As we’ve noted, it’s pretty hard to “game” the Australian electoral system: an independent body oversees elections and draws electorate boundaries; voting is compulsory, so discouraging your opponents from voting is basically pointless.
In Australian politics, we can generally conclude “the madder [angrier] you get, the madder [off the planet] you look”.
The only thing that concerns me about the current Liberal Right approach is I don’t understand it. It looks like it can’t possibly work in our system.
With Howard, we knew he was going to offer tax-cut promises tailored to sub-groups whose support he needed. Destructive, but understandable.
Sky News After Dark raging against non-existent Liberal wokism? Certainly not aimed at winning elections, surely.
So, what’s going on? These are not dumb people. They’re up to something.
Unless Peta Credlin really is a Labor plant…
”
nathsays:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 7:11 pm
Snappy Tom says:
.
NSW (alleged) corruption/criminality isn’t the problem here, it’s Qld voters!
____________
Numerous NSW ALP MPs have been allegedly found guilty of corruption. Allegedly
”
I looked/ look at Victorian Liberal MPs. All seems to have the sickness of’Swinging d**ks’ syndrome.
The Liberal Young Stooges congratulating the failed trio…
“When Democrats lose, they get sad; when Republicans lose, they get mad” Part 2…
Note that “getting mad” after losing specifically does not involve self-reflection.
The Republicans are wrong – somebody else is.
Same with RWNJs here.
Sky and most Libs are not reflecting on the possibility they’re out of touch with the electorate. They’re shouting kulcha war stuff which they wrongly proclaim is at the top of the electorate’s agenda.
No learning possible or desired.
….and yet, on every one of those tests which measure where you sit on the political spectrum, I’m somewhere between Greens and Labor (slightly leaning towards Green).
Sky is speaking to an audience and will not challenge them.
Newspoll 55-45
Not that polls matter at this point – but nice to see.
”
nathsays:
Sunday, April 2, 2023 at 8:13 pm
Labor barely making it to majority government federally and minority government in NSW is not commanding heights of Australian politics that some think it is. The Liberals will be back at some point and eager to punish.
”
This is how current federal and state LNP politicians think. This is how many MSM journalists think. Hence they handle LNP with kids gloves and treat ALP harshly. Thanks for pointing that LNP are a vengeful lot.
That is another reason they should be kept out of power for a long time.
There’s a post up on Newspoll — can we please keep this one focused on Aston going forward.
Those calling for Dutton’s removal are doing Labor a severe disservice. I got a lot of agro on another blog for suggesting before the 2022 federal election that Labor ought to run dead in Dickson to ensure Dutton’s re-election. Anyone with half a brain could foresee Morrison’s imminent demise and the real threat of Teals to the trendy Lib city seats. After the election, with so few trendies left, Dutton duly became leader of the most right-wing ‘Ill-liberal’ party that would shame even Menzies. Understand this: Dud Dutton from Dickson is the gift that will keep on giving for Labor! Long may he reign.
Nath @ 8.55pm
“I think you are closer to being a Liberal than I am”
It’s good that you’ve come out Nath.
Wear it like a big badge boi.
Nath a liberal? I had him pegged as a reactionary.
Howard might be better left mothballed for future elections. He’s not the electoral drawcard now that he used to be, given the housing crisis which his policies are largely responsible for causing.
Goodenough as Opposition Leader – really!
Moore, with an 0.62% margin, would be one of the first four seats to fall in 2025.
He will be battling to hold his own seat, let alone lead a national campaign.
Unlike Kim Beazley, he has no national profile and is rarely heard in parliament.
Though, this may not be such a bad thing, compared to the well-known members of the Liberal Party.
Macca RB says:
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 6:13 am
Goodenough as Opposition Leader – really!
Moore, with an 0.62% margin, would be one of the first four seats to fall in 2025.
He will be battling to hold his own seat, let alone lead a national campaign.
Unlike Kim Beazley, he has no national profile and is rarely heard in parliament.
Though, this may not be such a bad thing, compared to the well-known members of the Liberal Party.
____________
How about Libs make Goodenough leader, get smashed in 2025 (Labor getting, say 69.7% 2PP) with Goodenough gorrrrn and the party reduced to say, 5 members.
Australia becomes Western Australia (politically).
Works for me.
The Labor result in WA is artificially inflated due to circumstances there, such as the popularity of McGowan. At the next federal election the Liberals will win back Tangney, Curtin and maybe Hasluck, as things stand.
MelbourneMammoth says:
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 9:43 am
The Labor result in WA is artificially inflated due to circumstances there, such as the popularity of McGowan. At the next federal election the Liberals will win back Tangney, Curtin and maybe Hasluck, as things stand.
____________
That MIGHT happen.
What recent seismic electoral events have shown is that no party can take anything for granted – and the Liberals have.
As things stand, all of the Lib WA seats except one are on less than 5% margins.
Only Chaney and one Labor member are on sub-5%.
The Libs will have to devote resources to defending seats.
If the party gets crazier, they might lose more!
No Aston count updates so far this morning?
Snappy Tom – the AEC website helpfully includes details of progress with the declaration vote count. This indicates there are currently 690 votes on hand which are yet to be counted. Further, there are around 4,400 postal votes which were despatched but have not yet been returned – it’s guesswork on my part, but maybe half of these will end up in the count over the next couple of weeks? As we move into next week, the number of late postal votes received will flow to a trickle.
Outsider says:
Monday, April 3, 2023 at 11:58 am
Snappy Tom – the AEC website helpfully includes details of progress with the declaration vote count. This indicates there are currently 690 votes on hand which are yet to be counted. Further, there are around 4,400 postal votes which were despatched but have not yet been returned – it’s guesswork on my part, but maybe half of these will end up in the count over the next couple of weeks? As we move into next week, the number of late postal votes received will flow to a trickle.
____________
Thanks. I’m a big fan of compulsory, full-preferential voting, but it means I have to be patient, damnit!
Before the by-election, I said to family and others that I thought Aston was Labor’s to lose. I didn’t accept the commentators’ views reflecting inside knowledge, polls, utterances by party officials and the like that the LIBs would fall over the line. It’s called hedging your bets.
What convinced me from the outset that Labor would win Aston were [1] the national public polls showing Labor leading 54 or 55% to 46 or 45% [implying that the VIC 2PP would be something like 58 or 59% to Labor, with QLD dragging down the nation figure]; [2] the fact that the by-election was held in VIC, [3] the toxic effect of Peter Dutton, and [4] the state of national politics which has changed dramatically with a competent government in place and led by a popular, measured and thoughtful Prime Minister.
The outcome to me was quite obvious, even more so now that I have assessed the calibre of the candidates and that only became clear on election night’s concession/victory speeches. I didn’t realise how good Mary Doyle was before that. Completely genuine.