Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)

Hot on the heels of its drubbing in Aston, the Coalition cops a worsening picture from the first Newspoll in four weeks.

The Australian reports that a grim weekend for the Coalition has been capped by a bad Newspoll result, with Labor’s two-party lead widening from 54-46 to 55-45 from primary votes of Labor 38% (up one), Coalition 33% (down two), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up one). Anthony Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has also widened from 54-28 to 58-26. The report says Anthony Albanese is up one on approval to 56% while Peter Dutton is down two to 35%, with no word yet on disapproval. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1500. Update from Adrian Beaumont: Albanese’s disapproval is down three to 35% and Dutton’s disapproval is steady at 48%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,116 comments on “Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 20 of 23
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  1. Sensible decision by the RBA. No point increasing rates while the government is proceeding with tax cuts for the wealthy.

    You end up with more inflation and starvation.

    Now, albo needs to do what is needed. Stop the stage 3 tax cuts and raise the highest tax bracket to something more appropriate above 50%.

  5. ‘Voice Endeavour says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 5:02 pm

    Sensible decision by the RBA. No point increasing rates while the government is proceeding with tax cuts for the wealthy.

    You end up with more inflation and starvation.

    Now, albo needs to do what is needed. Stop the stage 3 tax cuts and raise the highest tax bracket to something more appropriate above 50%.’
    ———————————
    That’s what the Greens ran on. How did that go? Contribute to starvation did the Greens?

  6. Player One
    Do you want me to explain it to you again? I can try smaller words if it would help.

    I have a few smaller words of my own, ready to send in your direction.

  7. Voice Endeavour @ #951 Tuesday, April 4th, 2023 – 5:02 pm

    Sensible decision by the RBA. No point increasing rates while the government is proceeding with tax cuts for the wealthy.

    You end up with more inflation and starvation.

    Now, albo needs to do what is needed. Stop the stage 3 tax cuts and raise the highest tax bracket to something more appropriate above 50%.

    No-one of sound mind thinks S3 is a good idea. Even Albo thinks it’s terrible.

  8. I think people can manage better than they think. There’s a lot of extra money sitting in accounts and people are generally ahead in the mortgage.

    The studies I read show a quarter of borrowers were in mortgage stress back in Feb. What portion of the 800000 coming off fixed rates will end up under stress come end of the year?

  10. I really do recommend just perma-ignoring P1 and Rex. You get a lot more time in the day, lower blood pressure, and it grinds their gears to be ignored, win win win. I’ve been enjoying doing it.’

    And I say that as someone who had a print of this cartoon on the wall of my study until I lost it in a house move:

  11. The rich can spend their S3 tax cuts investing in the houses about to be re-possessed and sold off by the banks.

  12. A couple of very sobering articles today about the scale of the housing crisis. I think the greens and crossbench are right to block the HFF as it stands, as passing it will allow the ALP to crow about fixing the housing crisis when it’s actually going to fund less houses than are exiting the current affordability scheme, much less do anything about the huge backlog of social and affordable housing

    They might be able to extract some meaningful concessions and amendments, as with the safeguards mechanism etc, but personally I can’t see how the policy can be substantially improved

    I actually think the government needs to hold a major summit with nothing off the table, and invite all the peak bodies like across, the real estate industry, construction firms and developers, private investors and tax experts, business groups and immigration experts and to aim for a Hawke style Accord on housing. It seems obvious to me that all sides need to make some concessions with the ultimate goal that Australians are housed, business can meet it’s desires for labour and so on

    With the news of a looming shortfall in private construction and a huge increase in migration it’s a recipe for an absolute disaster, and the HFF is at best a tiny band-aid on a massive gaping wound that is rapidly turning gangrenous

  14. Jarryd Hayne found guilty of sexually assaulting a woman at her Newcastle home almost five years ago. After more than six days of deliberating, a jury on Tuesday found the two-time Dally M winner and ex-NFL convert guilty of two counts of sexual intercourse without consent.
    Following an 11 day trial in Sydney’s JMT District Court, the jury of six men and six women declared their verdict and convicted Hayne.

  15. Snappy Tom

    Also loved how Swollen Pickles picked up on Coorey using “we” several times in relation to the Liberal Party.
    Credlin does it too but she makes no pretence of being impartial.
    And Coorey reckons the Victorian Liberals are as bad it gets. Pity nobody reminded him of the state of play in WA.

  16. Hayne’s sentencing should be interesting.

    Tried three times, convicted and sentenced once, appeals successfully, retried and convicted a second time.

  17. PageBoi
    A couple of very sobering articles today about the scale of the housing crisis. I think the greens and crossbench are right to block the HFF as it stands, as passing it will allow the ALP to crow about fixing the housing crisis

    Passing the HFF would have done something to redress the housing crisis.

    But nothing was passed, so nothing was done about the housing crisis. The Greens can crow about that.

    With the news of a looming shortfall in private construction and a huge increase in migration it’s a recipe for an absolute disaster,

    So what you are saying is that now is a good time to buy an investment property? Thanks to the Greens.

  18. VE

    Spoken as a professional dole bludger

    And a supporter of the Independents who represent professional dole bludgers

    There is a balance, but your simplistic contribution does not assist

  21. Enough Already: we are now in the calm (reletively speaking) before the storm. My thinking is that once the Russians have finally fought and died taking the last pile of rubble in Bakhmut, the Ukrainians will launch a lightning pincer counter-offensive North and South of the city….( the attacks on Melitopol and Crimea being just feints just like Kerson last year..)…The Russian army will be trapped in the pocket of Bakhmut far behind the the front lines…..a reverse Stalingrad for the Russians…irony and justice beautifully delivered.

  22. Russians KIA 2022: about 106,700
    Daily average Russians KIA 2022: about 343

    Russians KIA 2023 YTD: about 69,000
    Daily average Russians KIA 2023 YTD: about 742

    Russians have a daily KIA rate this year more than double last year’s.

  23. ‘PageBoi says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 5:16 pm

    A couple of very sobering articles today about the scale of the housing crisis. I think the greens and crossbench are right to block the HFF as it stands…’
    ————————————
    That’s exactly right. The Greens senators and MPs, on a lazy quarter of a million a year with some nice super subsidy, are sitting in nice, comfy, and secure inner urban pads.

    Fuck the 30-60,000 people who might have benefited from an additional build of 30,000. Especially fuck the 4000-10,000 women and children who are suffering from domestic violence and who stood to benefit from the 4,000 houses earmarked for victims of domestic violence.

    Bandt was rolled on new gas and coal and he has pissed off the comrades protest wing of the watermelons. He is looking desperately for something, anything, that he can say ‘No!’ to.

    So he has joined Dutton on saying no to 30,000 houses.

    Gormless and heartless.

    Those losers should have voted for the Greens and their million houses promise.

    Remember comrades, the good is the enemy of the perfect!

  25. I think Dutton will push a conscience vote re the Voice at the Lib meeting tomorrow. I’d say he wants it off the Lib agenda, for his own sake.

  26. Shogun,

    No, what I’m saying is that the HFF is grossly insufficient as a policy to address the housing crisis. I also outlined a course of action to try and land on some substantial policy reform

    I’m also not a green (although I do lean that way in many policy areas considering myself pretty left wing) , but do you seriously think that the NFF is good policy, or going to make a material difference to the housing crisis, which all projections show is going to get substantially worse in coming years? Is the HFF really all the ALP is offering?

  27. Arky
    Agree with your astute commentary. I suspect you have seen much of it all first hand. Obama was a genuine do good President. The Republicans had one mission – to stop him from achieving anything. They failed, as you say, with Obamacare. Despite the obstacles – which were unapologetically aimed at defeating the President – he was voted in twice by the American people.
    As I mentioned in an earlier post I think Pete Buttergig should be the next Dem candidate and Americas next President. He’s learning the game from inside as Transportation Secretary and getting a profile with every infrastructure project. He’s a strong debated and the Republicans will have difficulty with their dirt unit – nothing there.

  28. Rossmcg says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 5:21 pm

    Snappy Tom

    Also loved how Swollen Pickles picked up on Coorey using “we” several times in relation to the Liberal Party.
    Credlin does it too but she makes no pretence of being impartial.
    And Coorey reckons the Victorian Liberals are as bad it gets. Pity nobody reminded him of the state of play in WA.
    ____________

    WA Libs are the best! Or, at least they’re my favourite…Libs…hoping to see them challenged…

  29. Boerwar says:

    Especially fuck the 4000-10,000 women and children who are suffering from domestic violence and who stood to benefit from the 4,000 houses earmarked for victims of domestic violence.
    ___________
    A bit harsh.

  30. PageBoi @ #976 Tuesday, April 4th, 2023 – 5:42 pm

    Shogun,

    No, what I’m saying is that the HFF is grossly insufficient as a policy to address the housing crisis. I also outlined a course of action to try and land on some substantial policy reform

    I’m also not a green (although I do lean that way in many policy areas considering myself pretty left wing) , but do you seriously think that the NFF is good policy, or going to make a material difference to the housing crisis, which all projections show is going to get substantially worse in coming years? Is the HFF really all the ALP is offering?

    It looks like a policy Morrison would dish up with great fanfare.

  31. None of Your Beeswax @ Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 5:38 pm:

    “Enough Already: we are now in the calm (reletively speaking) before the storm. My thinking is that once the Russians have finally fought and died taking the last pile of rubble in Bakhmut, the Ukrainians will launch a lightning pincer counter-offensive North and South of the city….( the attacks on Melitopol and Crimea being just feints just like Kerson last year..)…The Russian army will be trapped in the pocket of Bakhmut far behind the the front lines…..a reverse Stalingrad for the Russians…irony and justice beautifully delivered.”
    ====================

    NOYB, calm before the storm – yes, that’s a good way of putting my own impressions of the state of affairs this past month or so.

    I honestly have no idea what Ukraine intends to prioritise in its counteroffensives this spring – and yes, I believe we should use the plural here. My own view is the most durable gains they could make are in the west: through Zaporizhzhia down to the Sea of Azov, then smashing Russia’s forces in southern Kherson. Once taken, it will be an impossible job for Russia to then take it back. Ukraine will then have also cut off Russia’s ‘land bridge’ to Crimea – if they also destroy the Kerch Bridge and then relentlessly pound military targets in Crimea as well as vessels approaching or leaving any Crimean shore, Russia will have no choice but to abandon the peninsula. So, for this reason, I fancy a feint towards Luhansk or Donetsk, with the main hammer blow to fall upon Zaporizhzhia. But really, only very few right now will be privy to Ukraine’s actual plan.

  32. Team Katich says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 5:11 pm
    I think people can manage better than they think. There’s a lot of extra money sitting in accounts and people are generally ahead in the mortgage.
    ………………………………………………………………………
    The studies I read show a quarter of borrowers were in mortgage stress back in Feb. What portion of the 800000 coming off fixed rates will end up under stress come end of the year?
    ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    98.6 says :
    Not everyone with a mortgage will have a problem.
    Some of those mortgage holders could be millionaires buying their $3 million home or holiday house or investment property.
    While those coming off fixed loans have had it good all year and they will always remember that the difference between fixed or non fixed rates is just a gamble.
    As for those who may be stressed it will be a lesson they will never forget and I promise you they will think twice before signing up to any new loan as far as the amount borrowed and the length of time of any fixed rate is involved.

  33. Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
    #Morgan federal 54.5 to ALP (-2.5) ALP 34.5 L-NP 34.5 GRN 13 others 18.
    I get 54.0 (-1.7) by last-election preferences.

  34. I am interested to know. what part of Tory policy attracts the support of Lars and Tayloremade? Is it Robotdebt, leading to vulnerable people killing themselves? Is it the enabling of crypto fascists such as Deering, or is it all the rorting and corruption of public monies? Please tell me!

  35. “Is it Robotdebt, leading to vulnerable people killing themselves?”

    Robodebt had strong bipartisan support in having vulnerable people kill themselves for sometime before the heros who kept trying and trying and trying to expose what was going on like Asher Wolf, eventually cut through.

    Reagan’s welfare queen lie has taken deep root across the Australian spectrum and much you hear on welfare in Australia, even from the Labor Party is deeply rooted and locked on believing as truth the welfare queen lie.

  36. Saudi and Iran are putting aside their differences and joining the BRICS+. Japan has buckled and is buying Russian oil above the cap. Oil producers are cutting production. Another burst of inflation may be on its way, just when we’d thought we’d turned the corner, just in time to boost Trump’s campaign against not just Biden but the whole US Constitutional order. The UK is circling the drain and France is on fire. The dollar’s days as the world’s unchallenged reserve currency are nearing an end. The West can’t see it yet, but things are not going in their direction.

  38. BW: 1. Get rid of tax rorts.
    2. Wealth tax
    3. Empty house tax. (B&B and holiday homes)
    4. Footprint tax
    5. Stop net migration for two years.
    6. Foreign residents can only invest in house building.
    7. Introduce build to rent subsidies.
    8. Make it mandatory that each council area allocates a space for various classes of houses (social housing, one bedroom to four bedroom, unit towers, etc).”

    1. Magical thinking. If they were easy to remove they wouldn’t exist in the first place.
    2. Hard to target. If you’re talking about estate taxes, I agree.
    3. Completely agree. Easy to do too. Each taxpayer has a primary residence. If you’re a renter, your landlord pays empty house tax unless you nominate primary residence by date range. AirBnB will be taxed higher unless they are always occupied.
    4. Been tried. Doesn’t work. needlessly complex. In the end, it’s no different than a combination of land value that already define rates and number 3 so no need to double up.
    5. Ha. never going to happen.
    6. Completely agree.
    7. Might work. Ultimately the same thing was the Shorten negative gearing change to only apply to new builds. Can’t see it happening. Voters do not want.
    8. Never going to happen. The federal gov is never going to be able to dictate to states how to zone their land.

    That being said, some good big revenue earners in there that will help build supply.

    Watermelon, ya need to stop watching so much YouTube. It’s got ya thinking that everything that’s in your feed is leading to your already established beliefs.

    WWP: “Robodebt had strong bipartisan support”

    Making shit up.

  39. ‘Watermelon says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 6:13 pm

    Saudi and Iran are putting aside their differences…’
    —————————-
    Yeah, nah. Tell that to the Yemenis. Saudi and Iran are locked in theocratic death struggle.

  40. Snappy Tom says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 5:44 pm
    Rossmcg says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 5:21 pm

    Snappy Tom

    Also loved how Swollen Pickles picked up on Coorey using “we” several times in relation to the Liberal Party.
    Credlin does it too but she makes no pretence of being impartial.
    And Coorey reckons the Victorian Liberals are as bad it gets. Pity nobody reminded him of the state of play in WA.
    ____________

    WA Libs are the best! Or, at least they’re my favourite…Libs…hoping to see them challenged…
    …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
    98.6 says :
    I’m ashamed to admit that I was sucked in by Coorey in the early days and thought he was impartial in his appearances on Insiders.
    He’s a slimy bastard and he knows just how to give that impression that he’s not a Tory lover.
    But when you know his tricks it is so obvious it stands out like the proverbial just like last Sunday.
    I hate watching the show when he is on.
    In fact I generally don’t watch the show anymore except on special occasions like Labor’s win in Aston or NSW.

  41. Watermelon says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 6:13 pm

    Saudi and Iran are putting aside their differences and joining the BRICS+. Japan has buckled and is buying Russian oil above the cap. Oil producers are cutting production. Another burst of inflation may be on its way, just when we’d thought we’d turned the corner, just in time to boost Trump’s campaign against not just Biden but the whole US Constitutional order. The UK is circling the drain and France is on fire. The dollar’s days as the world’s unchallenged reserve currency are nearing an end. The West can’t see it yet, but things are not going in their direction.
    ____________

    So, all we have to do is abandon Ukraine…?

  42. ‘Holdenhillbilly says:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 6:07 pm

    Kevin Bonham @kevinbonham
    #Morgan federal 54.5 to ALP (-2.5) ALP 34.5 L-NP 34.5 GRN 13 others 18.
    I get 54.0 (-1.7) by last-election preferences.’
    ——————————-
    Coalition and Labor level pegging on primaries. This puts Aston into a bit of a national perspective.

  43. A couple of centuries of predicting with utter certainty and utter conviction the death of capitalism and being wrong every single time does not give pause for thought for the ideologists.

  45. Clem it’s getting and being rich and paying as little tax as possible.

    Life is good – waiting to tuck into fresh crayfish after a hard day on the golf course at King Island. Private charter back on Thursday.

  46. ”
    Socratessays:
    Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 3:33 pm
    Despite talk of a “need to change” LNP Senators are still tweeting absolute nonsense in support of their fossil fuel paymasters. They have no intention of changing their nature, just their marketing strategy.

    “Senator Gerard Rennick@SenatorRennick·5h
    When you are told that mining coal is bad, but mining copper, lithium, cobalt and nickel is good, you know you are being conned.”

    Senator Gerard Rennick is a former corporate tax lawyer who promotes climate denial memes.
    ”

    Rennick a corporate tax lawyer?
    So he has a brain (you know what I mean)? I thought he is another RWNJ the he way he spoke(speakers) in public. He demonstrates that one doesn’t necessarily becomes wise because of education.

  48. Watermelon @ Tuesday, April 4, 2023 at 6:13 pm:

    “Saudi and Iran are putting aside their differences and joining the BRICS+. Japan has buckled and is buying Russian oil above the cap. Oil producers are cutting production. Another burst of inflation may be on its way, just when we’d thought we’d turned the corner, just in time to boost Trump’s campaign against not just Biden but the whole US Constitutional order. The UK is circling the drain and France is on fire. The dollar’s days as the world’s unchallenged reserve currency are nearing an end. The West can’t see it yet, but things are not going in their direction.”
    ============================

    Watermelon, this is terrible! What do you think the answer is?

  49. While you’re about, Clem — the assessment I provided of Ryde the other day wasn’t my best work. Two problems with it: first, I’d forgotten the TCP count didn’t have absents and enrolment/provisionals, which they are only counting on the primary vote for some reason. Include a reasonable estimate of those based on the primary vote, and the Liberal lead would have been about 161 rather than 232. Second, I thought only late postals remained to be counted, when there were actually a further 489 absents and 40 absent/provisionals. Those got added today, and my estimate is that they will have pared the Liberal lead down to about 89. However, there still seems little chance that a Liberal lead of any size would be overturned on postals, which really is all that’s left now.

  50. Re the tax system and rorts, the tax system has been fine tuned over decades almost exclusively in line with the concepts and principles of trickle down. Every step since the CGT and FBT has been anti-progressive, no more so than the GST.

    I’ve heard people genuinely suggest a 5 or 10% bump in GST to pay for the stage three tax cuts, and well it wouldn’t surprise me all that much if that was the next ‘tax reform’, but I don’t think for all their faults this group would stick their neck out that far.

    Re the nature and extent of new housing, it is on the State Government. I think they are all owned by property developers.

    It would take an incredible act of bravery to act against the property developers but it would actually be quite simple.

    Develop large super blocks as close to a CBD as you can get without needing to buy back land, pay for high speed public transit links, hospitals and schools up front and release 10s of thousands of units (take the deposits and use them to fund some of the construction) at once, that will surround the state govt infrastructure.

    Explicitly advise that you are not going to support private low density new developments with roads or public transport, hospitals and schools and that the developer is going to need to fund that.

    Within the development of the super blocks, charge a premium for carparking bays, because a car shouldn’t be necessary.

    Our whole housing sector is just a great big scam to take as much money from new house buyers as possible. The only possible way to deal with it and with predatory landlords is to swamp supply of land and apartments.

    It is all a combination of policy choices that like welfare and taxation have all been made on the basis of trickle down economics principles, that clearly don’t work, but clearly have strong ongoing bipartisan support.

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