As I ought to have reported yesterday, the Age/Herald has the first federal poll of the year from Resolve Strategic, which credits Labor with a primary vote lead of 42% (unchanged on last month) to 29% (down one), with the Greens on 11% (steady), One Nation on 6% (up two), the United Australia Party on 2% (steady) and independents on 8% (steady). Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, but applying preference flows from last year’s election suggests a crushing Labor lead of around 60-40. Limited state breakdowns suggest Labor leads of around 60-40 in Victoria and 57.5-42.5 in New South Wales and Queensland. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is at 60% compared with 25% for poor and very poor, while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% and 46%, with Albanese leading 55-20 on preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606.
The poll also has a suite of questions relevant to Australia Day, which find 47% support for the federal government’s policy of allowing councils to choose days other than Australia Day for citizenship ceremonies with 19% opposed; 40% in favour of a republic (up five since September) with 30% opposed (down seven); and a 31% positive rating for King Charles III’s performance, with 12% negative and 57% neutral or unsure.
Also from Resolve Strategic is a set of results in the Indigenous voice that combines its December and January poll for an overall sample of 3618. Following on from similar findings in YouGov’s New South Wales poll last week, the poll finds support for a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice has fallen from 53% to 47% since August and September, with opposition up a point to 30% and undecided up four to 23%. Support is at 72% among Greens voters, 61% among Labor voters and 27% among Coalition voters. When the uncommitted were forced to choose, the result came in at 60% for yes and 40% for no, in from 64% to 36% in August and September. Only 13% felt confident they could explain the proposal, with 63% saying they would struggle to and 23% saying they had never heard of it. The narrowest results at state level were 56% yes and 44% no in both Queensland and South Australia.
The first fortnightly Essential Research poll of the year includes federal voting intention figures if you know where to look, which alongside a 5% uncommitted component have primary votes of Labor 34% (down one on early December), Coalition 31% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and others 16% (down one), with the pollster’s “2PP+” scores at 53% for Labor (up two), 42% for the Coalition (down two) and 5% uncommitted (steady). It nonetheless records a significant fall in Anthony Albanese’s still strong personal ratings, which are at 55% approval (down five) and 31% disapproval (up four).
Further questions found 33% support for both a separate day to recognise Indigenous Australians (down four on last year) with another 33% opposed (up four) and 26% believing such a day should replace Australia Day (up six). Eighty-two per cent rated Australia a better place to live than most other countries and 77% expressing pride in Australia, although 47% also agreed Australia needed to be a better global citizen with 16% disagreeing. Forty-two per cent agreed things were better for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in Australia than ten years ago, compared with 38% for about the same and 10% for worse. The polling was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1050.
Roy Morgan also has an SMS poll of 1231 respondents conducted Friday to Monday, which finds 64% favour the name of Australia Day being retained against 36% who would prefer that it be called “Invasion Day”, and the two-party preferred federal voting intention result in its weekly video has Labor leading 59-41, in from 59.5-40.5 last week. The BludgerTrack trend results on the sidebar and full display include the Resolve Strategic and Essential Research results, but don’t make use of Roy Morgan.
Unscientific poll, but in line with my experience.
For those worried about ABC Afternoon TV and SkyNews promoting Warren Mundine, nobody* watches this shit.
* except rusted ons
It’s interesting that the no campaign on the voice has Mundine former Nat alp president and Gary John’s former Keating govt minister.
Wow, they actually made a decision to not help welfare recipients find information which could disprove their debt!
Did she need a break to change her undies or vomit because her carrier is over..?
Dr Doolittle @ #1998 Monday, January 30th, 2023 – 5:40 pm
Is that because he always seems so smugly self-assured? 😉
Victorian bail laws MUST change following the Victorian coroner’s findings into the death of Indigenous woman Veronica Nelson.
“Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 5:42 pm
Poor alpo – you obv don’t know Putin already annexed Crimea in 2014.”
Poor Lars – you don’t know that Putin has annexed all the other regions as well!
You don’t seem to understand much about international politics, eh? Putin’s choice (if he stays in power) is simple: soldier on until total defeat or final victory with the stable annexation of all the regions (namely, Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson); or reach a point where he will grab something (e.g. Crimea), leave the rest and thus end the war.
Hope Mundine spends his 30 pieces of silver wisely.
Witness sneered at idea Carney had said averaging was illegal.
Taken through the judgment line at a time …
Suddenly she agrees.
Musolino is not having much success in defending the clearly indefensible.
‘BK says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 5:41 pm
“And you can see that Carney is using jurisprudence to guide the the resolution of the issue? Yes, Musolino says.
Musolino, very suddenly, interjects and asks for a short break. Adjourned.”
______
I was outside doing animals duties and missed this. Has Ms Musolino just realised that the game was up?’
==========================
‘jurispredence’, nudged into the stream of consciousness, did seem to disturb the Equilibrium.
The grubby Murdoch shilling is funding the No campaign.
Usual suspects appear with their hands out..
Mr Carney will be LOVING this!
… this horse is reluctant to drink from trough after trough after trough…
Boerwar says:
“… this horse is reluctant to drink from trough after trough after trough…”
Fetch the screens and the rifle.
Still think this is prelims before the main game – skewering the politicians
Bennelong Lurker, no. I’d flown from The Dark Side by then
“Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 5:44 pm
It’s interesting that the no campaign on the voice has Mundine former Nat alp president and Gary John’s former Keating govt minister.”
First: Mundine is a man for all seasons: “Mundine was the Liberal Party’s unsuccessful candidate for the marginal seat of Gilmore on the south coast of New South Wales in the 2019 Australian federal election.”
As for Gary Johns: “Since his defeat, Johns has drifted from the ALP and has been critical of his old party. … From 1997 to 2006, he was a senior fellow at the neo-liberal/conservative think tank the Institute of Public Affairs (IPA). Within the IPA, he was head of the Non-Government Organisations unit.”
Mundine and Johns are two Liberal party stooges, their support for the “No” option is simply a little appendix to the Coalition campaign. In fact, I would say that their past link to the ALP is no coincidence, the choice of such characters gives little Liberal party stormtroopers some pseudo-argument to criticise the ALP stance on the Voice…. But the tactic is laughable and a losing one.
Cheers, DB.
Boerwar
Star of the Sea!
For some reason my still religious siblings sang this as my mother’s coffin was taken out of the church
– must be a thing that I have forgotten
Leadership change poll bounce for NZ Labour.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/01/newshub-reid-research-poll-majority-of-voters-trust-labour-s-chris-hipkins-many-don-t-trust-national-s-christopher-luxon.html
https://twitter.com/120Aotearoa/status/1619943194766229507
Party Vote | Newshub-Reid Research.
Lab: 38.0% (+5.7)
Nat: 36.6% (-4.1)
ACT: 10.7% (+0.7)
Grn: 8.1% (-1.4)
NZF: 2.2% (-1.1)
TPM: 1.8% (-0.1)
TOP: 1.5% (+0.3)
NCP: N/A.
D: 22/01-27/01 | R: ~1,000.
+/- October 2022.
Preferred PM | Newshub-Reid Research.
Chris Hipkins (Lab): 19.6% (New)
Christopher Luxon (Nat): 18.8% (-2.7)
Jacinda Ardern (Lab): 12.4% (-17.5)
David Seymour (ACT): 8.0% (+0.7)
Leighton Baker (NCP): 3.9% (New)
Winston Peters (NZF) 2.9% (+1.3)
Note: Leighton Baker is the former leader of the New Conservatives, he was removed from the role by the party board after the 2020 election.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131098047/poll-chris-hipkins-delivers-boost-for-labour
https://www.scribd.com/document/622676366/January-2023-1News-Kantar-Public-Poll
https://twitter.com/120Aotearoa/status/1619934904481099776
Party Vote | 1 News-Kantar Public
Lab: 38.0% (+5)
Nat: 37.0% (-1)
ACT: 10.0% (-1)
Grn: 7.0% (-2)
NZF: 2.2% (-1.4)
TPM: 1.4% (-0.6)
TOP: 1.1% (-0.6)
NCP: 0.6% (N/C)
D: 25/01-29/01 | R: 1,008
+/- November 2022.
Of note:
– First 1News poll taken since Chris Hipkins became Prime Minister.
The following parties registered above the New Conservatives:
– Legalise Cannabis: 0.7% (-0.1)
– DemocracyNZ: 0.7% (+0.4)
Preferred Prime Minister | 1 News-Kantar Public
Chris Hipkins (Lab): 23.0% (New)
Christopher Luxon (Nat): 22.0% (-1)
David Seymour (ACT): 6.0% (N/C)
Jacinda Ardern (Lab): 5.0% (-24)
Winston Peters (NZF): 2.0% (N/C)
Chlöe Swarbrick (Grn): 2.0% (N/C)
So Peter Dutton has agreed to meet with the Aboriginal Voice Committee to discuss the detail, on Albo’s invitation.
By video dial in.
Why can’t he appear face to face? He is attending Pell’s funeral, which is more important.
Looks like rocking the boat and doing something about losing appeals in the AAT wasn’t anybody’s job.
And as the commissioner said if somebody had done something in 2017 and got some advice the whole thing would have ground to a halt.
But the LNP kept on shaking down welfare recipients, causing untold stress to thousands which has been linked to suicide, for another two years.
The mafia would be proud to have run scheme like this.
She’s just finally acknowledged that Robo Debt was illegal!
A decision to that effect was obviously not significant enough to be referred to the Department’s Chief Legal Counsel!
What a schemozzle. And these Apparatchiks are still trying to protect their former political masters!
Gary Johns. Hmm. What can you say about a shill for the tobacco industry and the author of a book titled ‘no contraception, no dole’. Ah yes, Shit-stain… that’s it.
Enough Already
“I don’t quite agree that the US and Russia are at step 19 with each other, though. I think they are still yet to reach step 10 (‘Provocative Breaking off of Diplomatic Relations’), since they are still keeping embassies with full-fledged ambassadors with each other, and are reportedly still maintaining military-level contact on the very topic of nuclear escalation. Further, neither of them have moved to step 11 (‘Super-Ready Status’). So, I think we are a ways off from imminent nuclear confrontation yet.”
————————–
You’re right of course, those steps haven’t been triggered. That’s one of the issues with the linear ladder model. The more updated versions talk about parallel or lateral escalation, and threshold step leaps.
I should have noted down the pages I was reading last week about the newer thinking on the model.
And now Boerwar does have something of substance to put on his list. Labor’s cultural/Arts policy. Excellent.
Back in the day, I worked with a Mundine – not Warren, not Tony – but another member of the clan. Great guy, spent many a long lunch in the Forbes Hotel. In the days when coming back after lunch half tanked was ok, as was smoking at your desk.
In short, a better Labor man I have never met in my life. The clan must feel ashamed that Warren has gone over to the dark side.
Alpo @ Monday, January 30, 2023 at 5:39 pm:
“ Crimea is not going to be easy…”
==============
No, it isn’t! But I think the argument is that it is essential that Ukraine liberate it for its long term security and economic viability.
nath, thoughts on the FICAC legislative framework?
Same,same I guess
Lars Von Trier @ #2002 Monday, January 30th, 2023 – 5:44 pm
John’s is not the only Lib to gain a parliamentary seat through the Labor system.
nath, rapprochement with China?
Same,same I Guess..
Seems Jacinda was wise to the end. Got out at the right time. Well played innings.
Oakeshott country at 6:01 pm
NSW Terrigals ?
https://www.olssdbb.catholic.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/School-Song.pdf
“Enough Already says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 6:11 pm
Alpo @ Monday, January 30, 2023 at 5:39 pm:
“ Crimea is not going to be easy…”
==============
No, it isn’t! But I think the argument is that it is essential that Ukraine liberate it for its long term security and economic viability”
We will see what happens during the coming Spring offensive and, if the Ukrainians defeat the Russians in the battlefield, how the political scenario will unfold.
Alpo at 5.39 pm
The problem for Putin is that he grabbed Crimea soon after the Ukrainian nationalists rejected a compromise deal on a power transition in Ukraine on 21 Feb 2014. He had Crimea for 8 years before his 2022 invasion. Even a pro-Russian observer could hardly claim he gained Crimea from this war. Hence if he ends with Crimea but otherwise the 2013 boundaries he’s lost.
The pro-Russian element in the population of Crimea would be well over 50%. Probably more like 70 to 80%. The Indigenous Peoples of Crimea, the Tartars, would strongly support an end to the Russian occupation, but amongst the Slavs a solid majority would support Russian control. One reason is demographic changes since 2014. Over 100,000 pro-Ukranians have left Crimea for good reasons, while Russia has imported lots more.
Any talk of Ukraine regaining Crimea is premature until they first regain Melitopol and then Mariupol. That is going to take some months at least. The fact that Mariupol was so ruthlessly destroyed shows that Putin did not consider it a prize worth keeping. It just shows his brutal vengeance.
nathsays:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 6:07 pm
And now Boerwar does have something of substance to put on his list. Labor’s cultural/Arts policy. Excellent.
_____________________
He was scraping the bottom of the barrel with Nixon earlier on.
The only thing I can remember from her time as Police Commissioner was abandoning her post on Black Saturday to go and get her hair done.
It really is gobsmacking that Labor has rewarded Kathryn Campbell with a high ranking role as head of ASRA within Defence.
Taylormade @ #2037 Monday, January 30th, 2023 – 6:24 pm
She went and had dinner, and did not go to Hawaii.
Taylormade @ #2037 Monday, January 30th, 2023 – 6:24 pm
That old chestnut. 🙄
Still, you’ve got to say something I guess, Taylormade, but then you remember where Scott Morrison headed to during the bushfire calamity on his watch and it doesn’t seem so bad after all. 🙂
She went and had dinner, and did not go to Hawaii.
_______________________________
But was she on a promise to Jen and the girls to go to dinner?
On the Voice I note the comments about Mundine and various other First Nations figures who might harm the cause, either through ego (Thorpe) or career advancement (the Liberal shills).
The Voice is a good idea, but needs community support to get up. That means it needs to be embraced by community leaders.
I’d like to suggest one who I think could fit the bill in rural Queensland, especially FNQ. Jonathon Thurston. Yes the footballer. He is a leader on and off the field and is recognised as such.
I know most footballers are best left out of politics, with apologies to David Pocock. Thurston has been wooed by Labor before and turned politics down.
But on the Voice, Thurston has already made a public statement in support of the Uluru statement. People like him could be part of a campaign of prominent community leaders speaking in favour of the Voice. If he could help get Qld over the line, it would be decisive.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/johnathan-thurston-voices-his-support-for-uluru-statement-proposals/news-story/702f8c3e8b1e6e8a6c8ecde9f3a85b4e
It just shows his brutal vengeance.
Portable cremation units to tidy up the mess this psychopath is creating does it for me.
Rex Douglas says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 6:25 pm
It really is gobsmacking that Labor has rewarded Kathryn Campbell with a high ranking role as head of ASRA within Defence.
———————————–
This is a well worn one-liner bait from Integrity.
Boerwar @ #2044 Monday, January 30th, 2023 – 6:30 pm
Yes, I imagine she has been moved sideways until the RC reports.
This looks kinda cool:
https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod/images/leidos-mayhem-1674226000.jpeg
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a42589676/air-forces-secret-hypersonic-bomber-project-mayhem-updates/
Fulvio Sammut:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 6:04 pm
[‘She’s just finally acknowledged that Robo Debt was illegal!’]
Had she admitted this early in her examination she may’ve saved herself a good deal of discomfort. Perhaps she thought she’d avoid some reputational damage by parrying with counsel assisting. It’s not often you see counsel in the dock, so to speak – not that she’ll be brought to book for anything other than towing the Tory Party line: demonise those on benefits and discourage legal advice without fear or favour. But in essence, I don’t blame her given how the Tories treat their underlings, starting under Howard & honed by his successors. Thank fuck we have an independent judiciary, at least relative to other common law countries – eg, the SCOTUS.
In 2017 you could login to myGov, Centrelink and agree your income for the year was $nnn, you couldn’t say you were employed for part of year
https://twitter.com/catrollison/status/1619865885698854914?s=12
“Dr Doolittle says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 6:23 pm
The problem for Putin is that he grabbed Crimea soon after the Ukrainian nationalists rejected a compromise deal on a power transition in Ukraine on 21 Feb 2014. He had Crimea for 8 years before his 2022 invasion. Even a pro-Russian observer could hardly claim he gained Crimea from this war. Hence if he ends with Crimea but otherwise the 2013 boundaries he’s lost.”
May be, or may be not. After all the Ukrainians do not regard Crimea as lost and a permanent Russian territory. Getting the Ukrainians to officially accept the Russian annexation of Crimea would be some kind of victory for Putin. I do realise that’s not much, of course, but if he can’t win the war at least that would allow him not to lose it.
“The pro-Russian element in the population of Crimea would be well over 50%. Probably more like 70 to 80%. The Indigenous Peoples of Crimea, the Tartars, would strongly support an end to the Russian occupation, but amongst the Slavs a solid majority would support Russian control. One reason is demographic changes since 2014. Over 100,000 pro-Ukranians have left Crimea for good reasons, while Russia has imported lots more.”
That’s an additional reason for the Ukrainians to keep Crimea as a bargaining chip. The war has been devastating for Ukraine, if they can end it by only losing Crimea officially and for good, it would be pretty much like a victory.
“Any talk of Ukraine regaining Crimea is premature until they first regain Melitopol and then Mariupol. That is going to take some months at least. The fact that Mariupol was so ruthlessly destroyed shows that Putin did not consider it a prize worth keeping. It just shows his brutal vengeance.”
I fully agree that Putin’s “scorched earth strategy” is worthy of a Nuremberg-style trial. That’s unlikely to happen, I am afraid, but I hope that the Ukrainian army, with the help of Western military hardware, will tell relevant people in Moscow that enough is enough and it’s time for a settled end to the conflict.
The pattern that the Coalition wonkies cannot grasp is that Labor appoints powerful women to do important, high-paying jobs.
It simply does not matter that the Coalition wants to tear one or the other woman down.
What matters is very large numbers of senior appointments. It is quite clear from Labor’s achievements for women in just 8 months is having a systemic and major impact already.
We saw the utterly pathetic commentary from the Liberals during the night of the Victorian election results counting.
‘We need to get more women.’
We see that the Teals are high and dry. They might even have believed the bs they were selling about same old, same old.
Over 80 women around Australia are ministers, etc, in Labor governments. They are in Cabinets around the country in large numbers.
OTOH, less than 10 women around Australia are ministers, etc, in Coalition governments.
Just one woman around Australia is a Greens minister.
This list just grows and grows and grows. I confidently anticipate, given Chalmer’s thoughtful essay, that the list will grow again in the next Budget.
1. Labor’s $300 million boost to the arts will include measures to mandate fair pay and workplace safety in the arts industry.
2. Labor funds $1.1 billion to bring forward 180,000 free TAFE positions. The conditions include encouraging women male dominated industries including into construction jobs.
3. Labor fund aged care wages increase: $3.4 billion a year. The large majority of people in aged care are women. The large majority of aged care workers are women.
4. Labor appoints Christine Nixon to undertake an inquiry into sex trafficking.
5. Labor initiates a national policy discussion on policies to make dating apps more safe.
6. Eight out of ten senior diplomatic posts filled with female appointees.
7. First ever ambassador for gender equity appointed.
8. A woman (Susan Kenny) is appointed as acting president to clean out the AAT.
9. After eons of granting a large majority of grants to male researchers, the NHMRC is to award grants worth $923 million on a roughly fifty/fifty basis.
10. 14 women and 9 men in the Victorian Labor Government Cabinet.
11. Respect in the Workplace legislation.
12. Gender equity is a core objective of the new IR legislation.
13. Katy Gallagher: $5m over five years to boost the number of women in public office. The women in public office grant is designed to encourage – and prepare – more women to run for elections at all levels.
14. Making good on rescuing Australian women and children from hell hole camps in Syria.
15. Vic Labor supports the Diamonds, filling the ethical and financial hole left vacamt by a certain commercial interest.
16. The Government today announced the appointment of Adjunct Professor Debora Picone AO as Chair of the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Review Reference Committee.
17. National Plan to End Violence against Women and Children 2022–2032
18. Extension of paid parental leave in the 2022 Budget at a cost of $532 million.
19. Ms Robyn Kruk AO to lead an independent review of the regulatory settings relating to health practitioner registration and qualification recognition for overseas trained health professionals and international students who have studied in Australia
20. Moves afoot to rescue 20 Australian women and around 40 children from a Turkish internment camp.
21. Jayne Jagot appointed to Australia’s High Court, creating first majority-female bench.
22. Ms Falkingham will be the first permanent female Chief Executive of the NDIA.
23. Federal Labor has appointed three eminently well qualified women to the Climate Council. This offsets the undue representation of businessmen on the Council.
24. Federal Indigenous Affairs Minister Burney supports the development of a separate National Strategy to Address Violence against Indigenous Women. The latter will be heavily involved in the design of the Strategy.
25. The Victorian government on Sunday announced it would spend $270 million to recruit and train thousands of new nurses and midwives under the scheme.
26. Labor has more female MPs than male MPs. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments were not within a bull’s roar of this achievement.)
27. Labor is fully committed to implementing all of the Jenkins Report recommendations. (The Morrison Government implemented a view recommendations but basically sat on the vast majority of the Report’s recommendations.)
28. High levels of women in the ministry. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had far, far fewer women in the ministry).
29. Labor gave a direction to the Fair Work Commission to specifically take into account the gender pay gap along with power to make gender specific determinations to close the gap. (The Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison governments had one universal ambitions: to damp down any real wage growth and showed zero interest in closing the gender pay gap.)
30. Labor intervened directly in the minimum wage decision which disproportionately benefits the lowest paid workers: women. (Abbott, Turnbull and Morrison did not do this.)
31. In recent departmental secretary appointments: Labor appointed three out of the four women. (Morrison’s last five secretarial appointments in 2019 involved a net loss of three women.)
32. Labor is setting the tone by promising to make boards, such as the Reserve Bank Board more representative.
33. Three Labor women ministers to lead aspects of the skills and jobs summit that relate to women’s participation, women upskilling and closing the wages gap.
34. Labor has avoided school holidays for sitting days.
35. Labor has instituted humane sitting hours on sitting days.
36. Morrison Government sat on the Report on the National Stakeholder Consultation for a Ten Year Domestic Violence Plan. Labor has released the Report with expedition.
37. Labor introduces paid domestic violence leave legislation
38. Ten days domestic violence leave for casual workers.
39. Submission to the Fair Work Commission on pay in the Aged Care industry. Four out of five workers in that industry are women.
40. Moves to legislate on coercive control.Not one of those eleven were in place in the past nine years.
41. Removes the ban on military and public service staff from engaging in certain “woke” charity, cultural and diversity events, imposed by former minister Peter Dutton last year.
42. Catherine Holmes is appointed Royal Commissioner for the Robodebt Royal Commission.