Resolve Strategic and Essential Research polls (open thread)

Labor continues to record commanding leads in recent federal polls, although one records a dip in Anthony Albanese’s personal ratings.

As I ought to have reported yesterday, the Age/Herald has the first federal poll of the year from Resolve Strategic, which credits Labor with a primary vote lead of 42% (unchanged on last month) to 29% (down one), with the Greens on 11% (steady), One Nation on 6% (up two), the United Australia Party on 2% (steady) and independents on 8% (steady). Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, but applying preference flows from last year’s election suggests a crushing Labor lead of around 60-40. Limited state breakdowns suggest Labor leads of around 60-40 in Victoria and 57.5-42.5 in New South Wales and Queensland. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is at 60% compared with 25% for poor and very poor, while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% and 46%, with Albanese leading 55-20 on preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606.

The poll also has a suite of questions relevant to Australia Day, which find 47% support for the federal government’s policy of allowing councils to choose days other than Australia Day for citizenship ceremonies with 19% opposed; 40% in favour of a republic (up five since September) with 30% opposed (down seven); and a 31% positive rating for King Charles III’s performance, with 12% negative and 57% neutral or unsure.

Also from Resolve Strategic is a set of results in the Indigenous voice that combines its December and January poll for an overall sample of 3618. Following on from similar findings in YouGov’s New South Wales poll last week, the poll finds support for a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice has fallen from 53% to 47% since August and September, with opposition up a point to 30% and undecided up four to 23%. Support is at 72% among Greens voters, 61% among Labor voters and 27% among Coalition voters. When the uncommitted were forced to choose, the result came in at 60% for yes and 40% for no, in from 64% to 36% in August and September. Only 13% felt confident they could explain the proposal, with 63% saying they would struggle to and 23% saying they had never heard of it. The narrowest results at state level were 56% yes and 44% no in both Queensland and South Australia.

The first fortnightly Essential Research poll of the year includes federal voting intention figures if you know where to look, which alongside a 5% uncommitted component have primary votes of Labor 34% (down one on early December), Coalition 31% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and others 16% (down one), with the pollster’s “2PP+” scores at 53% for Labor (up two), 42% for the Coalition (down two) and 5% uncommitted (steady). It nonetheless records a significant fall in Anthony Albanese’s still strong personal ratings, which are at 55% approval (down five) and 31% disapproval (up four).

Further questions found 33% support for both a separate day to recognise Indigenous Australians (down four on last year) with another 33% opposed (up four) and 26% believing such a day should replace Australia Day (up six). Eighty-two per cent rated Australia a better place to live than most other countries and 77% expressing pride in Australia, although 47% also agreed Australia needed to be a better global citizen with 16% disagreeing. Forty-two per cent agreed things were better for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in Australia than ten years ago, compared with 38% for about the same and 10% for worse. The polling was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1050.

Roy Morgan also has an SMS poll of 1231 respondents conducted Friday to Monday, which finds 64% favour the name of Australia Day being retained against 36% who would prefer that it be called “Invasion Day”, and the two-party preferred federal voting intention result in its weekly video has Labor leading 59-41, in from 59.5-40.5 last week. The BludgerTrack trend results on the sidebar and full display include the Resolve Strategic and Essential Research results, but don’t make use of Roy Morgan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,173 comments on “Resolve Strategic and Essential Research polls (open thread)”

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  1. I suppose payment from the IPA would make sense in that they’d pay peanuts and get monkeys, but honestly I don’t think so. It’s not like the world’s most obvious paid by Liberal HQ shill that used to post in the Guardian comments when I was a regular there. Tim or something. You could tell the Tim account was run by different people who wrote in different ways and had differing levels of commitment to Larsing it up, especially around the time of Turnbull challenging Abbott for the leadership when you could tell there was a pro Turnbull Tim and a pro Abbott Tim…

    Tim was great value, you knew the entire day’s Lib talking points by what Tim launched in with in the morning, sometimes before actual MPs had got around to it, and if he was in hiding you knew it was a “keep your head under the blanket and don’t give interviews” day for the Coalition in general.

  2. Arky: “… the world’s most obvious paid by Liberal HQ shill that used to post in the Guardian comments when I was a regular there. Tim or something.”

    Tim of Altona.

    His name and address nicked from Julia Gillard’s partner. Weird or what?

  3. Speaking of Guardian shills, Arky, let’s not forget The Jedi Master.

    Tim of Altona’s tag-team partner in pushing the Coalition agenda. Until he suddenly disappeared.

    In the same week that the Minerals Council summarily sacked CEO Brendan Pearson. Purely coincidentally, I’m sure …

  4. “Oliver Sutton says:
    Monday, January 30, 2023 at 10:00 pm
    Arky: “… the world’s most obvious paid by Liberal HQ shill that used to post in the Guardian comments when I was a regular there. Tim or something.”

    Tim of Altona.

    His name and address nicked from Julia Gillard’s partner. Weird or what?”

    Ha, ha, ha…. Yeah, of course I remember Timmy. He retired a few years ago. I am not sure whether he was too old, too tired/bored or simply the money to pay for his salary run out. What’s clear is that everybody had worked him out all too well and his pro-Liberal party propaganda (usually in the form of anti-Labor propaganda, as usual) had become completely ineffective and useless.

    Watch our local Lars et al. follow the same fate as Timmy…. it’s just a matter of time…. 🙂


  5. 98.6 says:
    Monday, January 30, 2023 at 9:45 pm

    I see no fault in this anchor woman.

    Sorry 98.6 I watch stuff to find stuff out, not to view a “anchor women” go on a ego trip.

  6. wranslide says:
    “Senator Thorpe may rouse Boerwar from the slumber tonight. Ready to unleash a numbered list.”

    🙂

    Summon the Savoyards and cue Ko-Ko Oh-No:

    “As some day it may happen that a victim must be found
    I’ve got a little list — I’ve got a little list
    Of society offenders who might well be underground
    And who never would be missed — who never would be missed!”

  7. Cat at 5.47 pm

    Perhaps re self-assurance, but that is not something to be devalued, since it may be genuine, and for people lacking confidence, it is quite a blessing.

    Mundine’s problem is that he isn’t genuine. He was never a radical at all, but he is like some of those US neocons who were socialists in their youth and then became the most belligerent, nasty advocates for inequality.

    Mundine has no idea about political tactics. The fact that he is fronting a No campaign group is a blessing for the Voice, albeit a minor one, since, as John Clarke once said of Bill Shorten as a change agent, the winds don’t spin with him (Shorten’s most important action, together with opposing Robodebt, was to persuade Pat Dodson to become a Labor Senator).

    Mundine has now confirmed the ethnic organisations’ support for Voice. He is capable of more own goals than Putin. See:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/30/voice-to-parliament-migrant-and-refugee-groups-reject-divisive-no-campaign-proposal-for-constitutional-recognition

    Note that Senator Thorpe took notice of Senator McCarthy’s affirmation of sovereignty, and refused to be drawn on whether she supports No. Her position may not become clear until the enabling legislation is voted on in the Senate, but don’t expect other Greens Senators to wait for her before they publicly declare their position. Some of them have tactical sense.

  8. Note that Senator Thorpe took notice of Senator McCarthy’s affirmation of sovereignty, and refused to be drawn on whether she supports No. Her position may not become clear until the enabling legislation is voted on in the Senate, but don’t expect other Greens Senators to wait for her before they publicly declare their position. Some of them have tactical sense.

    Yes, I noticed that, Dr D., and saw a glimmer of hope there. However, she’s only going to keep confusing people if she constantly keeps piping up and shouting over the top of all the other Blackfellas, ‘Treaty!’

  9. There is a reasonable position that treaty is more significant than voice. But there is no reason in saying that the defeat of constitutional recognition of F N people and our nations c 60,000 years history or muddying the water in ways which assist enemies of voice and treaty will advance treaty.

  10. Re: ABC
    Except for Simon Marney on a saturday morning, our radio is tuned to our local community station Coast FM – 96.3.
    All the other comments regarding the ABC, on this post, I fully endorse.

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