Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 34, Greens 12 in NSW

A second poll in a week records Labor well ahead with three months to go until the New South Wales state election.

The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday brought us the second New South Wales state poll in a week, this one courtesy of Resolve Strategic. It shows Labor leading on the primary vote with 37% (down one on the last such poll in September and October) to the Coalition’s 34% (down one), with the Greens on 12% (up one), Shooters on 2% (up one), independents at 11% (up one) and others on 5% (steady). Dominic Perrottet’s lead as preferred premier nonetheless increases from 30-29 to 33-29. The poll recorded high levels of awareness about Perrottet’s Nazi costume confession (80%), his cashless gaming card proposal (two-thirds), Labor’s promise to remove stamp duty for first home buyers on properties of up to $800,000 (64%) and the Coalition’s promised $150 back-to-school vouchers (three-quarters), though none scored high as likely influences on vote choice. The report doesn’t provide specifics, but the poll presumably encompasses a sample of 1000 combined from both this month’s and last month’s monthly national surveys, as per the pollster’s usual practice.

This week’s Essential Research report also had state leadership ratings from its small sample of 300 New South Wales respondents, which has Dominic Perrottet at 47% approval and 36% disapproval and Chris Minns at 39% approval and 26% disapproval.

There is also fresh preselection news since the weekend post on the YouGov poll:

• The general secretary of Labor’s state branch, Right faction powerbroker Bob Nanva, will replace Khal Asfour on the Legislative Council ticket after he withdrew last week amid negative publicity over his expenses claims as mayor of Canterbury-Bankstown. Nanva will presumably take the seventh position on the ticket, to which Asfour was preselected at the party’s state confererence last September. Nanva has been general secretary since 2019, and needed to be granted an exemption from the national executive to bypass a rule barring general secretaries from preselection until they have served at least five years in the job.

• Canada Bay deputy mayor Stephanie Di Pasqua has bucked a recent trend in Liberal preselections by winning a ballot for Drummoyne with a clear majority in the first round amid a field of five candidates, three of them male. The seat will be vacated at the election by John Sidoti, a former Liberal who has been sitting as an independent since March 2021 amid an ICAC investigation into his property dealings, for whom Di Pasqua formerly worked as an electorate officer.

• A weekend Liberal preselection vote for the Northern Beaches seat of Wakehurst, to be vacated with the retirement of Brad Hazzard, was won by Toby Williams, RSL club director and electorate officer to Hazzard. Jim O’Rourke of the Daily Telegraph reports Williams won 70 votes against 49 for Wendy Finianos, owner of a boutique management consultancy.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports NRL player Josh Mansour turned down an approach from the Liberal Party to run against Chris Minns in Kogarah. The Daily Telegraph reports the party’s candidate from 2019, tutoring business owner Scott Yung, has also been approached, but he is asking for another seat as a fallback option if he doesn’t win, which an unidentified Liberal source says he has no chance of getting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

88 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 34, Greens 12 in NSW”

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  1. Desie

    The northern beaches were locked down for three weeks. The Western Sydney LGAs were locked down for 3 months. I personally expect some differences in voting behaviour because of that.

  2. The ABC in Sydney haven’t had a good state political correspondent since Quentin Dempster retired, gone are the days of the Premier and his or her government being put under scrutiny by the national broadcaster.
    The Sydney Morning Herald all but endorsed the return of the Perottett government a couple of weeks ago, largely over the cashless gaming card for pubs and clubs, which Dom is fully supporting.

  3. it doesnt matter if perrottit fully supors the card it will not happin mins anowseed his policy and it is clear themost voters do not care about this cost of living is the main ishue

  4. Michael Daley was pretty woeful too, as I recall he spent most of the 2019 election campaign standing outside the Sydney Football Stadium, and then he got buried in the final week by the release of that video of him criticising Asian immigration and also a rather disasterous performance in a debate with Gladys.
    Chris Minns is a better campaigner in my opinion, but can he get enough cut through in the Sydney media market?

  5. Aaron Newton: mate, you’re quite correct about the impact of the cashless gaming card as an election issue, minimal in my opinion, it might play well for the Liberals in their own safe seats and in the seats where they’re under threat from Teal independents, but I doubt it’s a vote winner for Perrottett in Western Sydney and National Party seats.

  6. Honestly, I’m seeing a lot of the same “Labor needs x” stuff we heard before the Federal Election. In the end, if people think the Libs have shat the bed, it’s not going to matter.

    The other point worth making is about OPV… is it usually hurt the incumbents when the tide goes out against them… see NSW in 2011 and QLD in 2012. It then backfired on the LNP in QLD in 2015.

    If the Libs really are in trouble, OPV is a real danger to them – if people don’t need to preference them, a lot of them won’t. Also remember, in the case of SA and Feds (with CPV) – many of the seats Labor flipped, were done on swings much greater than the state-wide or national swings.

    Labor getting a majority will be difficult, yes. But it’s probably more likely than many are giving credit.

  7. ALP snowflakes and sympathisers are still shocked after the 2019 Federal election. NSW LNP will be voted out. Labor (and Teals) just have to show up.

    55/45 does not produce hung parliaments. Swings will be all over the place but the LNP is GAWN.

  8. Oakeshott Country at 12.20 pm

    I’ve met Terry Campese on numerous occasions in the past three years. He was a bushfire recovery outreach officer for QPRC for over a year. He did not rely on his strong rugby background in that role. He communicates well, including to the many people in Monaro who, as in NZ, are not rugby mad.

  9. Middle aged bald etc. 9.51 Sunday.
    I was one of those snowflakes that was in shock for at least six months after Labor lost in 2019. After years of leading in the polls, it all went down the toilet. However, I still believe in the polls as being a guide to which party should win an election.
    WA and SA and federally have all proved the polls to be correct and I’m confident NSW will go the same way.
    Minns should do an Albanese and keep under the radar. Don’t attempt any drastic reform policies like Shorten and Co did in 2019. The voters can’t handle it. Let the Liberals continue their self-destruct spiral but keep the forced resignations of Premiers Gladys and O’Farrell plus the other 11 MPs and ministers by ICAC front and center in the minds of voters, and especially the Barilaro affair.
    I predict that at 56-44 to Labor 2PP at present, although it may change by one or two percent in the following two months, on election night it will be a similar outcome to what we saw in Dan’s Victoria.

  10. I’d say this Resolve poll is closer to 53 2PP.

    Anything over 52 and the ALP win. Given the pendulum the Coalition are conceivably still a chance if they can get above 48 2PP depending on swings in individual seats.

  11. Terry Campese did not play Rugby. He played Rugby League.

    He is a son of the Greatest game of All, “Rugby League” (thanks Roy and HG). The religion of Sydney!

    “Rugby” is supported in a small enclave in the north shore, who don’t go further west than Sydney Airport.

  12. @98.6 and others…

    I hear you all. I watched the 2019 result unfold and cursed my fellow Orstraylians on the day. I knew Scomo was a charlatan, a fraud, a conman, feckless, nasty, conniving and grossly incompetent. I am also familiar with statistics….. My T-scores were elevated! My synapses were abuzz. I’d handed out for the red team from dawn ’til dusk. My daughters along side me handing out for the green team (for whom i secretly voted…)

    But for months we knew Scomo was what he is and was, but those pesky polls just wouldn’t shift from 51/49 – ie well and truly within the margin of error. I’d said to the good lady wife on many occasions – something is going on ; Scommo is obviously a %^&#! Those polls not shifting is not a good sign.

    When Hawkey died the day before I thought he might get us over the line. On the night I was shocked and disappointed, but not surprised, if you know what I mean.

    NSW in 2023 is different. We all hate small target campaigns, but in Australia, a nation of nervous nellies, we just don’t like having to think or challenge ourselves.

    As they say at AA – the two things nots people hate the most are change and the way things are.

    Perrottetenghet, on current polling is gone. No inside the margin of error for him. Things could change, but they haven’t yet.

    I have booked a 14 seat luxury cinema for election night. I’m inviting my most ardent political hack friends. Going to sit back and glory in the wit and wisdom of Antony Green on the big screen.

    Hoping for the right result – Danslide III of course.

    How will the Greens go? Will the Teals deliver? What time Will Antony call it? Ordering the popcorn now.

    I live in Victoria so it will be a night of prurient voyeurism.

  13. Argyle Street @ #68 Monday, January 30th, 2023 – 10:27 am

    Terry Campese did not play Rugby. He played Rugby League.

    He is a son of the Greatest game of All, “Rugby League” (thanks Roy and HG). The religion of Sydney!

    “Rugby” is supported in a small enclave in the north shore, who don’t go further west than Sydney Airport.

    Thank you Argyle St,
    Only a Victorian could commit such an egregious faux pas
    (I think Terry Campese played some “Rugby” as a junior but never professionally)
    “Greatest Game of All” as a promotional slogan goes back a long way further that Roy and HG, certainly to the 1930s and possibly as far back as J J Giltinain

  14. The opinion polls suggest 54/46 a 6% swing.. the latest poll suggests 7 to.8 pro alp. On those figures Labor benefits from opv. As they outpoll the liberals on primary votes. . I don’t know how well the teals/independents will do on.the North Shore but the liberals would be worried in about 4 to 6 seats. There are 2 other seats Wollondilly and.Dubbo where losses to independents are possible.
    Outside this I expect all independents to retain their seats including the ex
    Members of the sff.
    Now add to this labors wins .

  15. Terry Campese, the ex-Rugby League player, is the nephew of David Campese, the ex-Rugby Union player.

    How well this plays out in Queanbeyan may depend on the pub you have a drink at, the club you belong to, which side of the Queanbeyan river you live on and whether you are a true Queanbeyan local or not.
    And that’s just within the extended Campese family.

    Monaro, the electorate, includes Queanbeyan and extends all the way to the Victorian border.

    Lots of sheep and cattle in Monaro, lots of brumbies, lots of skiers travel through it, lots of public servants reside, lots of utes, a couple of councils do stuff, lots of tourists and Queanbeyan was once called a ‘struggle’ town.

    The outcome for Monaro on NSW election night will be interesting with Labor requiring a further big swing to get over the line.

  16. Yet another poll, Morgan this time, put Labor ahead at 55-45, two PP in the NSW state election.
    Yes, a lot of shit can go down between now and election day but “how sweet it is” at the moment?
    As a QLDer looking at these poll results, I doubt that the cashless gambling card ‘thing’ is a concern for the majority of voters in NSW, either from the Liberal or Labor camps.
    However, the ICAC inquiry into Berejiklian and her boyfriend would concern more voters than how they spend their money on a night at the pokies.
    Miss Personality Plus has flown the coop but voters have a long memory and her views on keeping the borders open to let COVID in are still in their memory banks.
    What was it with the Tories that they didn’t understand that people were afraid of dying from COVID and they insisted in trying to keep state borders open during COVID with the help of Scomo.
    Bring on the ICAC findings against Gladys and her lover before the election.

  17. 98.6
    “What was it with the Tories that they didn’t understand”

    Liberal Rule 1 What’s in it for us ?
    Liberal Rule 2 What’s in it for us ?
    Liberal Rule 3 ………………?

    And the Liberal answer if asked, ‘what part don’t you understand ?’

  18. Federally and in the states of WA, SA and in Victoria the Liberals have been too selective and isolated too many voters outside the tent.
    The questions for NSW Liberals is whether firstly, they have made the same mistake as elsewhere and if so, secondly, have they waited too long to rectify their folly.
    Generally the polls are accurately telling a story.
    The one factor benefitting the Liberals in NSW is the number of seats outside the margin of their error in excluding too many from the big tent.

  19. Polling seems to be firming for Labor, with something around a 54/46 2PP made up of primaries around 38 or so for the ALP, 35 or so for the Coalition, the standard 10 for the Greens and a bit of 15 for everyone else. If that polling holds till the end of next month, Labor should be returned to government with a workable majority in the LA (a seat haul in the high 40s), though we should remember that the State Coalition government is not despised here like the Morrison government was, and nor is Perottet himself. Overall, I think the vibe is that they’ve been a pretty decent government, but one starting to get a bit tired. If everything else was going well, I think they’d sneak back in for a fourth term.

    The big issue in most voters’ minds, in my opinion, is the cost of living. I think those of us who are really interested in politics (ie, pretty much everyone on this site) often make the mistake that your average swinging voter votes on the issues and other minutiae of political life, but I don’t think that’s true. Something like high inflation, even if people probably appreciate that there isn’t much a state government can do about it, is a clear and present danger to everyday voters, something they notice every time they do the shopping or fill up the tank. I think that’s what is fuelling the bad polling numbers for the government more than anything else.

  20. On the Inflation thing – I’ve seen three Liberal MP letters boosting themselves and the government, and then offering their voters a postal vote application form, and they all use the term “federal inflation”.

    Ha! Lets just make up terms now….

  21. The Morgan poll has their primary votes level pegging at 33.5%, bearing in mind that the survey was done in December.

    I don’t accept that with OPV this comes out at 55:45 2PP, I think it’s closer to 53.

    Still enough for minority government. I think the Coalition need to be at least 3% in front on the primary vote to have a chance.

  22. i think perottit isnt disliked but he is not egzacktly liked iva unlike gladis smith saying he has been a desent government he did lose bega bi election

  23. The usual by-election swing, changing demographics and the loss of a popular local member meant that Labor were always winning Bega.

    Upper Hunter on the other hand saw no swing and the end of Jodi McKay.

    Trish Doyle’s greatest contribution was inadvertently getting rid of two dud leaders and getting them to Minns who is the only Labor MP who is half way electable.

  24. im not sure constence was used to triy and win bega plus barialarow wanted to be clubs nsw ceo now it seems he does not want to go away

  25. Gareth Ward confirming he will run as an independent in Kiama. Another problem for Perrottett, especially as the Libs haven’t as yet picked a new candidate.

  26. yes ward is running wonder how minns got to become leader he lacked support of his mps it must bee that the awu and health survices union forced him on the party room he comes a cross better then perottit but has a habit of waiting 24 hours before making any desition threatins to act but does not maybi he has been listining to much to walt seckord who was good at getting media coveridge for a while but did not do much else this is perhaps whiy a lot of mps were skepdicle

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