Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 34, Greens 12 in NSW

A second poll in a week records Labor well ahead with three months to go until the New South Wales state election.

The Sydney Morning Herald yesterday brought us the second New South Wales state poll in a week, this one courtesy of Resolve Strategic. It shows Labor leading on the primary vote with 37% (down one on the last such poll in September and October) to the Coalition’s 34% (down one), with the Greens on 12% (up one), Shooters on 2% (up one), independents at 11% (up one) and others on 5% (steady). Dominic Perrottet’s lead as preferred premier nonetheless increases from 30-29 to 33-29. The poll recorded high levels of awareness about Perrottet’s Nazi costume confession (80%), his cashless gaming card proposal (two-thirds), Labor’s promise to remove stamp duty for first home buyers on properties of up to $800,000 (64%) and the Coalition’s promised $150 back-to-school vouchers (three-quarters), though none scored high as likely influences on vote choice. The report doesn’t provide specifics, but the poll presumably encompasses a sample of 1000 combined from both this month’s and last month’s monthly national surveys, as per the pollster’s usual practice.

This week’s Essential Research report also had state leadership ratings from its small sample of 300 New South Wales respondents, which has Dominic Perrottet at 47% approval and 36% disapproval and Chris Minns at 39% approval and 26% disapproval.

There is also fresh preselection news since the weekend post on the YouGov poll:

• The general secretary of Labor’s state branch, Right faction powerbroker Bob Nanva, will replace Khal Asfour on the Legislative Council ticket after he withdrew last week amid negative publicity over his expenses claims as mayor of Canterbury-Bankstown. Nanva will presumably take the seventh position on the ticket, to which Asfour was preselected at the party’s state confererence last September. Nanva has been general secretary since 2019, and needed to be granted an exemption from the national executive to bypass a rule barring general secretaries from preselection until they have served at least five years in the job.

• Canada Bay deputy mayor Stephanie Di Pasqua has bucked a recent trend in Liberal preselections by winning a ballot for Drummoyne with a clear majority in the first round amid a field of five candidates, three of them male. The seat will be vacated at the election by John Sidoti, a former Liberal who has been sitting as an independent since March 2021 amid an ICAC investigation into his property dealings, for whom Di Pasqua formerly worked as an electorate officer.

• A weekend Liberal preselection vote for the Northern Beaches seat of Wakehurst, to be vacated with the retirement of Brad Hazzard, was won by Toby Williams, RSL club director and electorate officer to Hazzard. Jim O’Rourke of the Daily Telegraph reports Williams won 70 votes against 49 for Wendy Finianos, owner of a boutique management consultancy.

• The Sydney Morning Herald reports NRL player Josh Mansour turned down an approach from the Liberal Party to run against Chris Minns in Kogarah. The Daily Telegraph reports the party’s candidate from 2019, tutoring business owner Scott Yung, has also been approached, but he is asking for another seat as a fallback option if he doesn’t win, which an unidentified Liberal source says he has no chance of getting.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

88 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 34, Greens 12 in NSW”

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  1. The poll recorded high levels of awareness about Perrottet’s Nazi costume confession (80%),

    And Perrottet s lead as preferred premier increases?

    Oy vey!

  2. The alp process should be that there are rank and file presections in all seats
    And that the preselections should be held at least a year ahead of the elections.
    Sitting mps who decide not to.recontest should give such notice a year ahead.as well

  3. labor actualy does have candadates for riverstone and holesworvy now but therelitel known candadates i think especialy in marjinal seats labor should preselect well known candadates

  4. The campaign manager, Bob Nanva, is responsible for having candidates in place. That there are none in all seats by now is disgraceful. Maybe Labor will not have candidates in Fairfield and Cabra – ridiculous.

  5. There is no sign of any swing back to the LNP in these numbers. Surely Labor forms the next government, despite the hurdles of a difficult pendulum and a likely large cross-bench.

    Having said that, I’ve never felt less enthusiastic about the prospect of a new Labor government, in stark contrast to the elation I felt on the election of the Albanese government. You could drive a horse and cart through the loopholes in Minns policies on gambling reform. He is doing nothing on tax reform, when he had the opportunity to have a bipartisan position on introduction of land tax. Given that NSW is more than $200 billion in debt, and that he will need cash for expanding resources in health and education, that’s not a good long-term move. I certainly give Minns credit for having an effective strategy to win government, but his policy agenda once in government looks very thin.

  6. Newcastle Moderate says:
    Thursday, January 26, 2023 at 10:52 am
    You could drive a horse and cart through the loopholes in Minns policies on gambling reform.
    —————————-
    Where is Perrottet gambling reform, Monday last week he promised he would released it within days

    Over a week later it disappeared no gambling reform , looks like the National party vetoed it , same way as with the greyhound racing ban

  7. If you need cash, why would you replace a stamp duty that puts money in the budget now for a land tax that takes yonks to raise the same amount of revenue? Or, for that matter, put limits on gambling losses that the state gets revenue from? We take a hit to the budget with either of those policies if they are successful, a big if in Dom’s pokie shambles, the question is whether they are worth the price.

    Both parties policies are thin on the ground, but that’s cause our state government is in the same financial position as the average bloke in the TAB by about race 7 on a Saturday arvo.

  8. plus just read a article on ofarells government theliberals signed a deal with clubs nsw to increase th number of pockies and reduce the tax on clubs on putting in more of them his policies make litle sence geting rid of a stamp duty that would take foor ever to raise money and with thegovernment which has very close links to clubs nsw and gambling to use this to attack people in western sydney which is the plan via the herald singling out banks town whilenot looking at the city and bush shows perottit dislikes western sydney same with the harsher lock downs it is all about portraying the people of western sydney of not being able to look after our selves

  9. yes pockies are bad but we dont ban evry thing just because the clubs nsw does not deal with people that have a problim its the same with grey hound racing if of course gambling has got worse in the last decade when you reduce the tax clubs nsw pays then when they stop donating to youhe protends he dislikes gambling

  10. plus chanel nine make a lot ofmoney of sports betting so it is not like the costellow papers can complain about vested interests what about there campaign backed by the n r l for stadiums no one wanted mins policies are better then the premier at least he wants to bringpeople together not win of culture war and dividing people

  11. it seems perottits policies are designed to sell of more asets if your not making revaneu you sell asets with give you a short term boost but then you make les in long run the labor party may not have candadates in cabramattor but the liberals dont have candadates in 30 seats and power broker matt keans allie peter poulos is in a unwinable spot on upper house ticket and he has no succes in lower house votes he is a very good power broker

  12. The just released Resolve Strategic Poll has recorded an 80% awareness of Perrottet’s Nazi uniform confession.
    A previous poll on the Nazi costume scandal had 8% of those polled saying they would be more likely to vote for the Coalition after Perrottet’s mea culpa. ( Most of us Catholics would know the prayer with these words ie through my fault, through my fault, through my most grievous fault. Although I’m not sure if Perrottet struck his breast three times as required as he confessed).
    I suppose that 8% are the same ones who would be happy to give Kanye West and his anti-Semitic comments a visa to allow him to visit his new in-laws in Australia.
    Personally, I don’t care if he comes or not. It has been a long time since we witnessed the last free circus centered around a visa and a certain male tennis player.
    Any word yet on whether that photo exists? Whoever has it is sitting on a gold mine and should be calling Max Markson before the election.

  13. Riverstone close .The Federal MP for Greenway would have easily won Riverstone on Federal results.
    Holsworthy
    Advantage liberal.. all the Menai suburbs are in this seat. Then there is internal liberal disharmony due to the dumping of the sitting mp.

  14. Are NSW clubs ramping up the lobbying? Last night there was a TV advert in Canberra (i.e. regional NSW) showing young people doing sports training, switching to a simple message (wtte) “your local club does this”.

  15. There still does not appear to be a Labor candidate selected for Epping, based on a quick scroll through the Members/Candidates list on the NSW Labor website.

  16. Michael Regan, the Mayor of the Northern Beaches Council, now putting his hat in the ring for Wakehurst – another headache for the Liberals, it means they’ll have to allocate resources to a seat that normally would be ultra safe for them.
    Bennelong Lurker: Yes, no ALP candidates yet preselected for Epping and Wahroonga(my seat), no doubt because they’re so ultra safe for the Libs that the ALP is struggling to find volunteers.
    More puzzling to me is the lack of Labor candidates for Fairfield, Cabramatta, Riverstone and Holsworthy.

  17. what are the greens doing this election no speculation at all about them picking up any seats there upper house lead candadate kate feahrmann has no publick profile there last efective leader was shoebridge and he is in senate the greens dont get much coverige in n s w with there strange policy of no oficial lweader

  18. With 6 to 8% pro Labor swing. A limited chance of the libs picking up seats from anyone.. ind or Labor
    And the chances of teals/ independents winning normally safe non Labor seats The liberals and nats can at best hope for a Labor
    Minority government but when you add on the alp wins in seats up to 6% margins on average plus a couple of seats beyond that Margin. I am reasonably sure of a alp majority govt

  19. I think that’s a fair summary Mick. But if Labor takes 4 seats off the LNP (say, East Hills, Penrith, Upper Hunter, plus one other which is more of a stretch), they get to 42. Add 3 Greens plus Piper and Greenwich, and that’s a majority of the Assembly. But let’s also assume the Nationals take the 3 former SFF seats, and the Liberals beat off the teals and other independents in all their safe seats-that’s possible, is it not? That would leave the LNP with 45 seats (plus McGirr), and the LNP have more seats than the ALP, and a reasonable argument to Piper and Greenwich that they should continue in government, as the largest party. Labor needs to get to at least 44 seats (plus Greens/Piper/Greenwich) to be sure the LNP are not the largest party, which means winning at least 6. So it’s possible to envisage a world where Labor get a solid swing and do win a number of seats, but fall short of the wins needed to avoid some sort of minority LNP government. There are going to be a lot of seats to watch on election night!

  20. i dont think there will be a minority government the media all ways says this when labor is leading they prodict a minority government perottit has left it to late the public have moved on from pockies

  21. Newcastle Moderate.. you have just set out the best case scenario for the libs.
    I consider Labor will do much Better.I have heard nothing about upper Hunter but this is a possible nat hold. But Parramatta is a certain lib party loss. There are in excess of 20 liberal and National party seats which will be interesting on the night. I expect the coalition mainly.libs to lose seats to
    Labor , teals and independents. And not.defeat the ex sff independents

  22. LNP seats within the 6-8% margin.
    Two months to go from today!
    Summer holidays are almost gone, and attention will return hopefully to real issues rather than dress ups and what I did when I was twenty.
    A uniform 6-8% should deliver a majority ALP Government.
    A swing of up to 6% would include: East Hills (0.1%), Penrith (0.6%), Goulburn (3.1%), Tweed (5.0%), Winston Hills (5.1%) & Holsworthy (6.0%).
    Other seats within this range are: Upper Hunter (0.5%) and Willoughby (3.3%). I would be surprised if the ALP could win those two seats.
    Extending to 8% would include: Riverstone (6.2%), Parramatta (6.5%), Oatley (6.8%) & Camden (7.3%).
    The confounding factor is whether the self-destructing Hunters & Gatherers can retain their three seats or whether they revert back to the Country Party.
    If the current polling is sustained and realised on polling day, then we should welcome a new ALP Government.
    I would be more optimistic if the ALP had a more interesting and charismatic leader, rather than Chris Who!

  23. Macca RB says:
    Saturday, January 28, 2023 at 6:15 am

    I would be more optimistic if the ALP had a more interesting and charismatic leader, rather than Chris Who!
    ————————————————-
    going by recent elections Labor will romp it in
    South Australian election Labor Leader Peter who ?
    Federal Election Labor Leader Anthony who ?

  24. Willoughby Labor won’t win but an independent could. Upper Hunter I just don’t know.. Singleton is the key. Parramatta I think is a certain win for Labor. Holsworthy is difficult because it includes nearly all of the Menai suburbs. Riverstone is a growth area and could swing heavily as is the case with Camden.
    Of Monaro Kiama and Drummoyne Labor is competitive with chances of 2 or 3 of these seats.
    I haven’t finished but the actual pendulum is only a a broad indication. The ex sff independents have really positioned themselves as rural independents and are likely to get alp preferences..any one but nats. I suspect they will all be relected

  25. What the “Chris Who” brigade forget is that NSW Labor has been de-platformed by the MSM so therefore there is a total news blackout on anything NSW Labor and the stuff that does get though is always reported through the prism of “factional warfare/Eddie Obeid etc”

  26. Mick @ 6.59am
    If you are hopeful of: Monaro, Kiama & Drummoyne being in play then an ALP government is a certainty.
    On those margins, my own seat of Torrygal could come onto the winners list, too!
    Strategic voting and preferential flows could see Willoughby go Independent.
    Hopefully, the errors of the 2022 By-election have been noted and that Willoughby will be a LP loss.
    The most disheartening feature is seeing formerly safe ALP seats, or their redistributed successors, sitting on the coalition side of the pendulum, with large margins.

  27. Greg Rudd, my mate, he’s quite correct about the media in Sydney(which is pretty much the media in NSW), hopelessly pro Perrottett, that includes the ABC and their bimbo state political reporter Ashley Raper. Chris Minns gets minimal coverage at best for any of his announcements, just as well he’s got a good presence on social media.
    The Premier has on his side the Daily Telegraph, the Sydney Morning Herald, commercial TV news and 2GB, rather hard for Chris Minns to get any cut through in that situation.

  28. actualy 2 g b has been giving Minns a reasonable run better then the herald which egnores liberal factions and the fact matt kean can get any of his suporters in seats in parliament to talk about stuff that happind 12 years a go with friendly jordies popularity and yunger voters geting news from social media in stead of news the msm seem to be having litle impact both latham and gthe greens seem to be runing weak campaigns the greens are not helped buy the fact there defacto leader david shoebridge moved to senate and the other mps have no pubblick profile the party needs to have a oficial leader

  29. latham may struggle to win his seat he certainly will not get two up fred nile on the right is gone so could perhaps pick up his vote wonder how borsak will go with shooters and the lc nsw

  30. So the ABC is running a programme on Monday night exploring misconduct by Opus Dei schools (like homophobia and advising girls not to get the cervical cancer vaccine), and the intimate links between Opus Dei and the Liberal Party, like Perrottet and Tudehope. This same story is the lead article on the Sydney Morning Herald website today.

    I suppose this is all part of the vast media conspiracy against the ALP? Clearly the Murdoch media is biased, that’s absolutely the case. But to suggest that the ABC and Fairfax are part of some vast anti-Labor media conspiracy is just ridiculous. Many of my friends are conservative and strongly pro-LNP, and they are absolutely convinced that the ABC and Fairfax are part of a vast pro-Labor media conspiracy!

  31. “that includes the ABC and their bimbo state political reporter Ashley Raper”

    Twats, like you Evan, should fall into a hole.

    You are boring too.

  32. A lot of seats will go Independent before Willoughby does. There was very little strategic voting in that electorate at the Federal level, there is less reason to do it now, the base vote of ALP is higher in the North Sydney federal electorate seats than elsewhere in Northern Sydney and the Independent hasn’t even declared they are running yet.

  33. The Teals are unlikely to win anything, just like in Victoria.

    Federally they did well because of compulsory preference allocation, liberal donation laws, and a strong suite of resonating issues.

    None of these exist here.

    The election will be decided in six Western Sydney seats – East Hills, Penrith, Leppington, Riverstone, Holsworthy and Parramatta – seats with either margins under two percent or retiring MP’s.

    I suspect 43 seats wins and if you can get to 44 you’re home and hosed.

    At this stage the ALP are more likely but it’s not done.

    And as for this idea of ABC and SMH bias towards the Liberals…….please. The only positive voice from either is Alex Smith and that’s only because she convinced Perrottet to land to the left of Minns on pokie reform.

    Watch her change her tune if he doesn’t deliver what she wants.

  34. Are we building up a “we were beaten by the Main Stream Media” argument already?
    “that includes the ABC and their bimbo state political reporter Ashley Raper”
    Truly appalling

  35. Ashley Raper is “on the drip” and it shows in her reporting which goes towards the “wet” side rather than the 2GB/Newscorp style and throwing a little anti-liberal snippet here and there to throw people off the scent, like Libtika Bourke did in her younger years before she moved to the UK.

  36. Haven’t watched ABC news for yonks so can’t comment.

    As for the smh, when you publish a poll leading with a narrow preferred Premier/PM lead rather than a opposition lead on primary and 2pp votes, that’s a pretty clear indication of who they support. There’s not many objective ways of ascertaining media bias, but the reporting of polls is as good as any so far as I’m concerned.

  37. Newcastle Moderate Fri at 3.37 pm, Mick Q Fri 8.30 pm & Sat at 6.59 am, Macca RB Sat at 6.15 & 7.55 am, Desie Sat at 4.01 pm, & Aaron Fri 8.06 pm

    Labor have never won Upper Hunter so that wasn’t quite the best scenario for the Coalition, but it was unrealistic. All polls point to a clear swing to Labor and probably majority government. The best analogy may be the WA election in 2017, when two terms of Barnett was more than enough.

    Desie there is another western Sydney seat, Winston Hills, that will likely go with the rest, though the sitting Lib is recontesting. So Labor can more or less win the election in western Sydney, courtesy of Gladys treating the residents there as less deserving than the privileged types elsewhere.

    Labor has a strong local candidate in Monaro, Terry Campese, who is likely to win, not just because of his rugby role (important in Queanbeyan which is the largest centre and which was strong for Nats in by-election), but because of his extensive community network. For example, last weekend he came to the far NE of the electorate to help provide food for a community gathering to listen to a podcast about the wildfire crisis. See:

    https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/giant-footsteps/id1657951159?i=1000595841668

    Note the real margin in Monaro is 5.2% after the by-election. Those who think that marginal Porky Barilaro voters aren’t for turning are wrong.

    Kiama and Camden should be Labor gains. Remember that the pendulum is only a broad guide, and local candidates are crucial, in both positive and negative terms. Gareth Ward is the only Lib member ever for Kiama, and by recontesting he is most likely to ensure the Libs lose convincingly. Drummoyne is different for rather obvious reasons linked to social class.

    The mainstream media is generally pathetic, but one thing to watch out for is how heavily they put the spurs on the old nag HUNG PARLIAMENT in the straight. Kevin Bonham seems to think that such coverage in the past in Tassie has helped prevent the nag from winning, due to voters’ concerns about uncertainty if not instability. Minns has most factors in his favour so he would be a total fizzer for Labor to lose, given the polls.

    Mr Jack from Aranda was bullish on Hung Parliament on Boxing Day, in commenting on Kevin Bonham’s review, but Bonham was quite doubtful:

    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/12/nsw-2023-lower-house-preview-is-dom.html

  38. Winston Hills is most likely a Liberal hold, Mark Taylor is a well-liked and respected local member.

    Parts of Western Sydney were locked down because that’s where the greatest incidence of Covid was.

    Funny how no one mentions the Northern Beaches being ‘singled out’ when it was locked down the year prior. I don’t recall Mayors like Carbone and Christou offering their communities up to be locked down in solidarity at the time.

  39. not sure if the abc jernalist is more liberal but then again therepast few political reporters brigit glanvill worked for a while for sarah mitchel simon santow is now chief of staff to netasha mclaron jones minister in charge of child protection and mark tobin worked for ofarell

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