As I ought to have reported yesterday, the Age/Herald has the first federal poll of the year from Resolve Strategic, which credits Labor with a primary vote lead of 42% (unchanged on last month) to 29% (down one), with the Greens on 11% (steady), One Nation on 6% (up two), the United Australia Party on 2% (steady) and independents on 8% (steady). Resolve Strategic does not provide two-party preferred results, but applying preference flows from last year’s election suggests a crushing Labor lead of around 60-40. Limited state breakdowns suggest Labor leads of around 60-40 in Victoria and 57.5-42.5 in New South Wales and Queensland. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is at 60% compared with 25% for poor and very poor, while Peter Dutton is respectively at 28% and 46%, with Albanese leading 55-20 on preferred prime minister. The poll was conducted last Tuesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606.
The poll also has a suite of questions relevant to Australia Day, which find 47% support for the federal government’s policy of allowing councils to choose days other than Australia Day for citizenship ceremonies with 19% opposed; 40% in favour of a republic (up five since September) with 30% opposed (down seven); and a 31% positive rating for King Charles III’s performance, with 12% negative and 57% neutral or unsure.
Also from Resolve Strategic is a set of results in the Indigenous voice that combines its December and January poll for an overall sample of 3618. Following on from similar findings in YouGov’s New South Wales poll last week, the poll finds support for a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice has fallen from 53% to 47% since August and September, with opposition up a point to 30% and undecided up four to 23%. Support is at 72% among Greens voters, 61% among Labor voters and 27% among Coalition voters. When the uncommitted were forced to choose, the result came in at 60% for yes and 40% for no, in from 64% to 36% in August and September. Only 13% felt confident they could explain the proposal, with 63% saying they would struggle to and 23% saying they had never heard of it. The narrowest results at state level were 56% yes and 44% no in both Queensland and South Australia.
The first fortnightly Essential Research poll of the year includes federal voting intention figures if you know where to look, which alongside a 5% uncommitted component have primary votes of Labor 34% (down one on early December), Coalition 31% (up one), Greens 14% (up one) and others 16% (down one), with the pollster’s “2PP+” scores at 53% for Labor (up two), 42% for the Coalition (down two) and 5% uncommitted (steady). It nonetheless records a significant fall in Anthony Albanese’s still strong personal ratings, which are at 55% approval (down five) and 31% disapproval (up four).
Further questions found 33% support for both a separate day to recognise Indigenous Australians (down four on last year) with another 33% opposed (up four) and 26% believing such a day should replace Australia Day (up six). Eighty-two per cent rated Australia a better place to live than most other countries and 77% expressing pride in Australia, although 47% also agreed Australia needed to be a better global citizen with 16% disagreeing. Forty-two per cent agreed things were better for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples in Australia than ten years ago, compared with 38% for about the same and 10% for worse. The polling was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1050.
Roy Morgan also has an SMS poll of 1231 respondents conducted Friday to Monday, which finds 64% favour the name of Australia Day being retained against 36% who would prefer that it be called “Invasion Day”, and the two-party preferred federal voting intention result in its weekly video has Labor leading 59-41, in from 59.5-40.5 last week. The BludgerTrack trend results on the sidebar and full display include the Resolve Strategic and Essential Research results, but don’t make use of Roy Morgan.
Boerwar @ #2044 Monday, January 30th, 2023 – 6:30 pm
Should read Tegridy Rex…
Some people like to hold governments’ to account. Others like to trumpet their achievements. You don’t get extra points for doing your job adequately in my book. But it is a nice change.
billie says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 6:37 pm
In 2017 you could login to myGov, Centrelink and agree your income for the year was $nnn, you couldn’t say you were employed for part of year
https://twitter.com/catrollison/status/1619865885698854914?s=12
___________________________________________
Thanks for that Billie. Ms Campbell and Ms Musolino would have dismissed that article as a disgruntled debtor (even if only $54 in actuality) letting off steam.
There’s a view that holds that apostrophes should be done away with.
Poroti
The Terrigal Catholics had the best site in the suburb with magnificent ocean views- hence the name.
They made an Obeid size motza turning the site into unit blocks and moved the parish to the sticks
Bennelong Lurkersays:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 2:05 pm
An interesting tweet from Louise Milligan.
Louise Milligan
@Milliganreports.
_____________________
I always get nervous when Louise Milligan is active on twitter playing Russian roulette with taxpayers dollars.
Surely the ABC won’t bail her out a second time but you just never know.
I always get nervous when Louise Milligan is active on twitter playing Russian roulette with taxpayers dollars.
________________________________________
Shame you didn’t get nervous at all when the previous government wasted billions of taxpayers dollars giving dodgy contracts to their mates using dodgy processes. But, of course, they were your side.
Edited to note that the government that is now responsible for the ABC might have a bit more rigorous policy in defending the freedom of speech of ABC reporters when it comes to sensitive right wing plaintiffs.
By the way FS, your posts are far too economical & infrequent & I don’t mean to suggest I’m pissing in your pocket.
Wall Street Journal reports Israel drone strike responsible for damage at Iranian munitions factory
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2023/1/29/2149979/-Wall-Street-Journal-reports-Israel-drone-strike-responsible-for-damage-at-Iranian-munitions-factory
Taylormade:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 6:49 pm
_____________________
[‘I always get nervous when Louise Milligan is active on twitter playing Russian roulette with taxpayers dollars. Surely the ABC won’t bail her out a second time but you just never know.’]
Tonight’s “Four Corners” is not going to give dear Dominic much succour.
TPOF @ #2057 Monday, January 30th, 2023 – 6:53 pm
Yeah, I bet he saw nothing wrong with the MateKeeper Billions of taxpayer $$ the Coalition just gave away.
War in Ukraine, something interesting to be aware of:
“‘We’re fighting for a free future’: the Chechen battalions siding with Kyiv
Fighters of Dzhokhar Dudayev battalion oppose Putin and his strongman Ramzan Kadyrov ”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/30/chechen-dzhokhar-dudayev-battalion-kyiv-ukraine-putin-ramzan-kadyrov
The Russians as “liberators”?…. Ha!
Mavis says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 7:00 pm
Taylormade:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 6:49 pm
_____________________
[‘I always get nervous when Louise Milligan is active on twitter playing Russian roulette with taxpayers dollars. Surely the ABC won’t bail her out a second time but you just never know.’]
Tonight’s “Four Corners” is not going to give dear Dominic much succour.
____________________
Mavis do you have seigneurial rights at the caravan park?
”
Mavissays:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 6:36 pm
Fulvio Sammut:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 6:04 pm
[‘She’s just finally acknowledged that Robo Debt was illegal!’]
Had she admitted this early in her examination she may’ve saved herself a good deal of discomfort. Perhaps she thought she’d avoid some reputational damage by parrying with counsel assisting. It’s not often you see counsel in the dock, so to speak – not that she’ll be brought to book for anything other than towing the Tory Party line: demonise those on benefits and discourage legal advice without fear or favour. But in essence, I don’t blame her given how the Tories treat their underlings, starting under Howard & honed by his successors. Thank fuck we have an independent judiciary, at least relative to other common law countries – eg, the SCOTUS.
”
Mavis
Come to think of it when Trump was President all the wings/pillars of US
i.e. the executive, the judiciary and legislature were under Republican party control for first 2 years Trump.
Now the Judiciary is firmly under Republican party control along with one wing of Legislature.
But this time there is a difference. They are rabid and lunatic and very dangerous for US society.
TPOF:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 6:53 pm
If anything, you’re invariably predictable.
Boer
Didn’t you get nath’s memo?
None of that stuff is as important as the Arts.
I mean, most of it’s about women.
Pfff.
“In my youth, said his father, I took to the law, and argued each case with my wife
And the muscular strength which it gave to my jaw, has lasted the rest of my life” – Father William, Lewis Carroll.
Well, Mavis, like father William, I’ve grown old. I retired 2 years ago, but was called back to fill a gap when my replacement went on maternity leave.
I have just retired again.
Hopefully I’ll find more time to get further abreast of current and political affairs, and have more to offer in my posts.
With age comes, if not wisdom, then at least a mellowing of passion and fervour. Maybe I can revive it.
At the moment, I read Pollbludger most days, but am yet to have the luxury of time to take the cudgel to old protagonists in the manner in which they should be dispatched. That will come.
You take care.
Alpo @ #2062 Monday, January 30th, 2023 – 7:05 pm
There are quite a few ‘Russians’ fighting for Ukraine. Georgians, Tajiks, pretty much any ethnic minority ‘Russian’.
Some might think this is a “math meme”, but I see a political metaphor.
https://aus.social/@skdh@nerdculture.de/109777182332013103
“Boris Johnson says Putin claimed he could send missile to hit UK ‘in a minute’”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jan/30/boris-johnson-says-putin-claimed-he-could-send-missile-to-hit-uk-in-a-minute
… and that’s probably true, but so what? It’s yet another display of bluffing by Putin… Time is fast coming for Putin to face reality. Nobody believes his bluffing anymore.
Fulvio Sammut,
I await with baited breath the unsheathing of your verbal sword. 🙂
Mavis says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 7:22 pm
TPOF:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 6:53 pm
If anything, you’re invariably predictable.
_________________________________
You really have your knickers in a twist about me Mavis. I still can’t work out why. But I suppose I should be grateful you would never be tempted to piss in my pocket.
“Russia’s war in Ukraine is expected to weigh on long-term energy demand and accelerate the world’s shift to renewables and low-carbon power as countries boost domestic energy supplies, BP said in a report on Monday.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/jan/30/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskiy-faster-weapons-supplies-fighting-donetsk-tough-live
In other words, Putin is, in the longer term, digging his country’s own grave…
Well done, Vlad!
“I always get nervous when Louise Milligan is active on twitter playing Russian roulette with taxpayers dollars.
Surely the ABC won’t bail her out a second time but you just never know.”
Free speech in Aust!
What an absolute crock of injustice and stupidity our oppressive defo laws are.
zoomster says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 7:25 pm
Boer
Didn’t you get nath’s memo?
None of that stuff is as important as the Arts.
I mean, most of it’s about women.
__________
And nothing specifically for hot women either.
Ven, unlike appointments to the US Supreme Court, High Court appiontments are usually uncontroversial, apart from Piddinton’s,* Murphy’s & serial sexual harasser, Heydon’s. I could go further back to include the highly political appointment of Barwick but wont.
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Piddington
“Ministry of Defence GB
@DefenceHQ
United Kingdom government organization
Russian authorities are likely keeping open the option of another round of call-ups under the ‘partial mobilisation’.”
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1619947982513651712?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1619947982513651712%7Ctwgr%5Ebd2770cb4a94a72194cf51db8edd7e58ae8621c0%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2Flive%2F2023%2Fjan%2F30%2Frussia-ukraine-war-zelenskiy-faster-weapons-supplies-fighting-donetsk-tough-live
Interesting…. The Russians seem to be losing soldiers at a high rate and are looking for new recruits to replace the dead ones…. If they don’t show any territorial gains to justify those deaths, wait for increasing turmoil inside Russia…
“Erdoğan says Turkey may accept Finland into Nato without Sweden.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said for the first time that Ankara could accept Finland into Nato without its Nordic neighbour Sweden.”
Well, it’s not ideal, but let’s start with Finland. After all, of those two Scandinavian countries, it’s Finland that has a got a significant border with Russia.
Welcome back Sarah Ferguson to 7 30, not..
That was painful watching her interview Bill Gates, tirelessly dwelling on his “links” to Jeffrey Epstein, conspiracy theories about vaccines etc. It was better suited to A Current affair.
He was obviously pissed off at the end, didn’t even say thanks etc.
Fulvio:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 7:28 pm
[‘At the moment, I read Pollbludger most days, but am yet to have the luxury of time to take the cudgel to old protagonists in the manner in which they should be dispatched. That will come.’]
Anyway, hang in there. I like your wit, your economy of word.
__________________________________________
TPOF:
I don’t dislike you at all though you do in my view engage in group think, anathema to objective political analysis.
Henry says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 7:59 pm
Welcome back Sarah Ferguson to 7 30, not..
The shorts turn me off, didn’t even bother to stay and watch it.
Out of left field.
Has anyone worked out who was Peter Van Onselen’s ‘DEEP THROAT’ within Scomo’s cabinet.
Onselen told us that person was a current serving minister at the time of leaking where it was revealed the PM was rolled on aspects of the Religious Discrimination Bill.
Could it have been the same person who leaked the damaging text messages from Miss Popular Personality NSW, Gladys B, where she described Morrison as a ‘horrible, horrible person’.
While Gladys got many things wrong during her tenure as premier and as witnessed during her embarrassing ICAC revelations, one thing she got right was her assessment of our PM at the time.
Surely that quote was another long nail in Morrison’s coffin.
Onselen obviously won’t tell us who this or those informants may be, but I would have expected other journos to have worked it out by now.
Alternately, we may have to wait years for the Deep Throat to reveal who they are.
Don’t forget it took 30 years before Mark Felt at the age of 91 declared he was Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein’s informer.
How long will ABC give Sarah Ferguson at 730?
She was a surprising choice for me originally but things do not seem to be tracking well. But that could be my own confirmation bias. Any idea of the ratings?
”
Alposays:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 7:49 pm
“Erdoğan says Turkey may accept Finland into Nato without Sweden.
Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said for the first time that Ankara could accept Finland into Nato without its Nordic neighbour Sweden.”
Well, it’s not ideal, but let’s start with Finland. After all, of those two Scandinavian countries, it’s Finland that has a got a significant border with Russia.
”
When NATO criticises other countries do they look at the leadership of the some of its members like say Turkey, Italy, Hungary?
Mavis
I don’t dislike you at all though you do in my view engage in group think, anathema to objective political analysis.
__________________________________
I’m sorry you think that. Maybe you should read what I post rather than dismiss it. But anyway, if you want to snark at me from the sidelines I suppose you will do what you need to satisfy your urges.
david speers would be the better host his style does not suit insiders to confrontational and does not do well with the panal tends to use his opinion generaly leans liberal but would be better then ferguson laura tingle would also be a good host but given speershosts election coverige which 730 host used to
garry johns hasbeen a liberal since 1997 shortly after he left parliament do not know how he got a seat well from qld what will alix smith about report on perottits 4 corners links with opus dae he went to the opuis dae ran redfield colidge and his wakehurst candadate toby williams is a clubs nsw rep as well as hazard staffer
I’ve never understood why the edit function of this site is questioned & willingly admitted. Surely if one transgresses thereof – be it syntax, spelling, grammar & punctuation – that’s a saving grace, in the absence of which some may think someone’s a monkey’s uncle.
wranslide @ #2083 Monday, January 30th, 2023 – 8:09 pm
More importantly, how long will Labor tolerate Ita Buttrose “dumbing down” the ABC? The ABC has deteriorated significantly under her stewardship. You could contend that this is accidental rather than deliberate, but the ABC is now worse than I have ever known it. The “news” is more like current affairs, the “current affairs” is more like a paid advertorial (tonight’s 7:30 was a perfect example) and the “entertainment” is anything but.
And that’s just the TV – the online content and radio are even worse 🙁
Annette Musolino at Robodebt RC today:
“… the only way we could end up doing 20,000 [debt review] interventions a week compared to 20,000 a year is to find a more efficient process.”
Precisely. Never mind the quality, feel the width!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/30/inaccuracy-of-robodebt-scheme-known-issue-but-was-only-way-to-do-more-reviews-commission-told
sprocket_says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 5:57 pm
“Still think this is prelims before the main game – skewering the politicians”
However, unless the public servants have retained evidence of wrong doings by the political class, then the political response will be :-
a) I was expecting the public servants to provide the appropriate advice
b) I don’t accept the premise of your investigation
Much now depends on the Reservist Campbell !
Musolino was..
Asked why the method was used if officials knew it was inaccurate, Musolino said: “Because I think it was understood it was ultimately lawful to make a decision. And that the only way we could end up doing 20,000 [debt review] interventions a week compared to 20,000 a year is to find a more efficient process.”
Isn’t that an admission they didn’t care if it was legal or not they just wanted hit their target regardless …. Nothing short of criminal
Because there was no advice at the time saying it was legal
P1
Indeed.
“The program we’re showing this evening’ and ‘news’ are not the same thing.
(Just as ‘the radio interview we’ve just done…’ is not…)
Alpo
“ Well, it’s not ideal, but let’s start with Finland. After all, of those two Scandinavian countries, it’s Finland that has a got a significant border with Russia.”
Given the almost identical foreign and defense policies of Finland and Sweden this is a fairly contrived and difficult to justify stance by Turkey. A cynic might think it allows Erdogan to keep looking strong till after the Turkish election, at which time he will quietly agree to Sweden’s membership too.
Hypocrisy aside, it would “get the job done” for NATO deployment, since it seals in the gap in NATO’s front line between Norway and Estonia. It shores up the defence of Finland and the Baltic states, which is what really matters. US and UK forces are already based in Finland, so the new balance of NATO land forces become active at this point.
…my husband’s attempt to save the ABC is to listen to it on car journeys to ‘boost the ratings.’
Some of the programs we listen to have me wanting to gnaw off a limb or two….
@ Mavis7.41 PM
Can’t you just imagine the broad smile on Bill Shorten’s face when that ‘serial sexual harasser’ Dyson Heydon was finally exposed.
A very old lady once said to me “They’re born but they’re not buried yet”.
How dare he sit in judgement of any person on earth.
Most senators and almost half of federal MPs missed parliamentary sitting days last year. These are the pollies with the best and worst attendance records. Two thirds of senators and almost half of federal MPs did not attend every parliamentary sitting day under the Albanese government last year. The lower house had 31 sitting days, while the upper house had 28 sitting days between July and December.
Anthony Albanese attended 29 days due to overseas trips, while Opposition leader Peter Dutton attended all 31 days. Former prime minister Scott Morrison only attended 26 days, after skipping the first week to speak at a conference of conservative leaders in Tokyo. Ten of the Prime Minister’s 23-member cabinet also recorded several absences amid other ministerial commitments.
Gippsland MP Darren Chester had the lowest attendance of the House at 10 days, followed by Dunkley MP Peta Murphy at 12 days. This was because the pair were representing Australia at the UN General Assembly in New York. Alarming parliamentary figures for the Upper House show only 32.8 per cent attended all 28 of its sitting days last year.
Outspoken One Nation leader Pauline Hanson had the highest number of days absent without leave at three, on top of a further two days absent with leave. New Victorian Labor Senator Jana Stewart only attended seven days due to maternity leave.
https://archive.md/i3NdR
“Ven says:
Monday, January 30, 2023 at 8:09 pm
When NATO criticises other countries do they look at the leadership of the some of its members like say Turkey, Italy, Hungary?”
Each NATO member is also a sovereign country. They elect their president/government and sometimes the winner is left-wing, sometimes right-wing. The issue for NATO is that whatever their political persuasion, they should declare their full allegiance to the alliance. For instance, one of the first thing that the right-wing government of Meloni in Italy did (her party has actually historical links with the Fascist party of Mussolini) was to declare their full allegiance to NATO and the EU.
Today they are in government, tomorrow they are gone. Just see the recent elections in the Czech republic.
Classic ABC hatchet job tonight.
Teal MP Monique Ryan taken to court by staffer Sally Rugg over alleged workplace law breach
https://amp-theguardian-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/30/teal-mp-monique-ryan-taken-to-court-by-staffer-sally-rugg-over-alleged-workplace-law-breach?amp_gsa=1&_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16750712600995&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Faustralia-news%2F2023%2Fjan%2F30%2Fteal-mp-monique-ryan-taken-to-court-by-staffer-sally-rugg-over-alleged-workplace-law-breach