Today’s Daily Telegraph has a YouGov poll showing 46% support for a yes vote in a referendum on an indigenous voice compared with 30% for no, with 24% undecided. Support was at 61% among Labor voters, 31% among Coalition voters and 72% among the small sample of Greens voters. Sixty-eight per cent rated that the government had done a poor job of explaining how the voice would work, with no detail provided on other responses. The poll was conducted online “last week” from a sample of 1069. UPDATE: The poll was limited to New South Wales.
Other than that, the only bit of recent polling I’m aware of is the return of Roy Morgan’s weekly update video and its regular serving of thin gruel on federal voting intention. This records Labor’s two-party lead at 59.5-40.5, out from 58.5-41.5 before the summer break, and a notably wide gap from a series that had found Labor with relatively modest leads for much of last year.
Also:
• Following the death on Tuesday of New South Wales Liberal Senator Jim Molan, reports suggest the front-runner to succeed him is fellow conservative Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW. However, Max Maddison of The Australian reports some moderates believe the faction should try to poach the seat for one of their own, the chief contenders being defeated Wentworth MP Dave Sharma, unsuccessful Gilmore candidate Andrew Constance and thwarted Warringah preselection hopeful Jane Buncle. Tony Abbott has ruled out a suggestion by former Victorian state party president Michael Kroger that the position should go to him, although Dennis Shanahan of The Australian today reports that would be open to a lower house seat if it had “overwhelming support” in the party.
• Matthew Knott of the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Thursday that moderates were urging Marise Payne to create a second New South Wales Senate vacancy by retiring shortly after the March state election, potentially to be succeeded by Fiona Martin, who lost her seat of Reid at the federal election last year; Gisele Kapterian, former staffer to Julie Bishop and Michaelia Cash; or Maria Kovacic, state party president and unsuccessful federal candidate for Parramatta. Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reported today that Payne has “told colleagues she does not intend to retire”.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reported yesterday on a “push within Queensland’s Liberal National Party to bring former Senator Amanda Stoker back into the fold”, with the suggestion that she might topple lower-profile incumbent Paul Scarr to gain the top position on the Senate ticket at the next election. With the second place on the ticket reserved for the Nationals, and no suggestion in the report that a position might become available in the lower house, the only other possibility would be for her to again take third place. This was a losing proposition for her at last year’s election and would also require her to depose an incumbent, in this case ideological fringe dweller Gerard Rennick.
Dr John says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 6:47 pm
Four years ago whilst staying in Bendigo and walking past the Bendigo Chinese Museum one day in broad daylight and no-one else around I was literally ambushed and threatened by 2 local aboriginals (one had a huge gash in his cheek I remember). Luckily I was able to talk my way out of it.
I will still vote for the voice.’
_____________
Did you have any ethnographic reactions to when ‘The Munster’ and his crew robbed you of millions? Or did you just chalk it up to shit happens?
A history of the last 12 General Secretaries would challenge Plutarch’s Lives.
It would start with the assassination of Geoff Cahill (Et tu, Barry?) and end with the enthronement of Bob in the Mother of Australian Parliaments
“Do KCs earn time and a half after 6pm?”
After 4pm except in January when it is at all times for the whole month
The PwC tax guy has been sinbinned for two years.
Should get life.
WWP – leaving aside that you already lost the argument by leaping straight to Hitler (seriously?), the fundamental thing of democracy is that voters make their choice and you have to respect it even if you don’t agree with it. Nobody wins elections in a democracy by throwing a tanty and telling voters they got it wrong.
I am not even sure what argument you and Rex are trying to make here – that Thorpe is not a wrecker? That the Greens/Thorpe situation is not damaging the Voice and the cause of reconciliation? It feels like an awful lot of “look over there!” to avoid admitting hey, people like me and Boer have been right all along on this topic and the way the Greens are split on it.
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 7:24 pm
I’d missed the news about the PwC partner…
…..He was great at international tax, ………
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Code for transfer pricing?
From The Guardian:
“Russia-Ukraine war live: US and Germany expected to send tanks as Moscow warns of ‘blatant provocation’”…
Ha, ha, ha….. Hey, Vlad, and what are you going to do?… Open your coat and expose your nuke?… Sorry, but that will only cause a mass laughter on the onlookers!
Two years before he can re-apply – he will need to find a cure for cancer, world hunger and start up and run a dozen orphanages in the interim to get that application up and running
“The PwC tax guy has been sinbinned for two years.
Should get life.”
Most tax work most people do doesn’t require you be a tax agent, so it isn’t so much a sin bin as a scarlet letter.
Mr Mysterious:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 6:21 pm
[‘Correct me if I’m wrong.’]
I’m confident that once the battle royale gets underway, most will support the Constitutional amendment. At the moment I think it can be compared to a phony war.
nath says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 7:28 pm
Did you have any ethnographic reactions to when ‘The Munster’ and his crew robbed you of millions? Or did you just chalk it up to shit happens?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
You have pulled this out of your arse.
Answer – No
“Code for transfer pricing?”
Transfer pricing is like the engine of international tax for related party transactions, international tax is more about why you establish the entity in the Netherlands or Bermuda to do work in New Zealand, the treasury stuff he leaked was probably the diverted profits tax, or the anti-hybrid rules stuff, kind of BEPS I, when the whole world is now getting excited about BEPS 2.
It is a little bit odd though every conversation I had with a lawyer or big 4 advisor at the time seemed to know everything about what treasury was doing and they caveated every second sentence with ‘Treasury tells me …”, so it isn’t like Treasury was good at either drafting tax law or keeping secrets.
Watermelon says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 3:31 pm
Cronus,
Regarding East Timor,
Are we actually disputing that Indonesia, following US orders, accepted the UN peacekeeping force ?
Here’s a quote from President Habibie from September 12 1999, the same day that Clinton announced that the US would suspend military cooperation.
A couple of minutes ago I called the United Nations Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, to inform about our readiness to accept international peacekeeping forces through the United Nations, from friendly nations, to restore peace and security in East Timor.
Indonesia buckled mere hours after Clinton said the word.
———————————————————————————————
So again, why did we need all that hardware and military personnel if not to convince Indonesia of our/UN’s seriousness? In fact, is it not more likely that it was this promised threat that convinced Habibie to acquiesce at literally the very last moment? And furthermore, even if that’s accepted, it seems that message didn’t reach the TNI and militia for weeks which further suggests that without our actual physical presence and ongoing threat that their withdrawal might’ve occurred at all.
And you failed to answer a single on of my many questions or often a plausible explanation, any of which should’ve caused you to consider the difference between Indonesia’s/Habibie’s words and deeds at the time. The TNI (a very powerful element in its own right and the owner of their nation’s fighting power), and the militia at the very least did not appear to have accepted a weakened Habibie’s belated announcement. Furthermore, Australia then spent a decade in East Timor and it wasn’t all about nation building. Makes you wonder about The UN’s belief in the veracity of Indonesia’s withdrawal.
Dr John. I do not get your response to Nath. Are you saying that the individual known as the Munster did not rob your family of millions?
WWP
Is he still working for PwC? Probably had a promotion, just can’t do people’s tax returns .
Which he didn’t do anyway.
People go to jail for leaking defence secrets.
All this happened back in 2o16 I think.
“Two years before he can re-apply – he will need to find a cure for cancer, world hunger and start up and run a dozen orphanages in the interim to get that application up and running”
I don’t imagine he needs money probably doesn’t have quite as much saved for a rainy day as the top tax KC’s but I can’t imagine his property portfolio is just within Australia either.
“Anthony Albanese has challenged political colleagues across the spectrum to put the Indigenous voice debate “above politics”, declaring his “door is open” if leaders of other parties want to offer constructive suggestions on points of detail.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/jan/25/my-door-is-open-anthony-albanese-challenges-political-foes-to-contribute-to-voice-legislation
But Albo, there are two political leaders right now who are not acting as leaders: Peter Dutton and Adam Bandt!
I urge Bandt to show that he is the leader of a Progressive party and come on board supporting the Yes vote at the Voice referendum… As for Dutton, I don’t think that he has what it takes to be a true leader…
“Is he still working for PwC? Probably had a promotion, just can’t do people’s tax returns .
Which he didn’t do anyway.
People go to jail for leaking defence secrets.
All this happened back in 2o16 I think.”
All the reports say he is ex-PwC, I don’t know if he left when this started (it is finished now so it might be sometime ago) or whether he exited when PwC bought Greenwoods, they got a couple of international guns with that acquisition. Although I would have said he was in their tier.
“Is he still working for PwC? Probably had a promotion, just can’t do people’s tax returns .
Which he didn’t do anyway.
People go to jail for leaking defence secrets.
All this happened back in 2o16 I think.”
All the reports say he is ex-PwC, I don’t know if he left when this started (it is finished now so it might be sometime ago) or whether he exited when PwC bought Greenwoods, they got a couple of international guns with that acquisition. Although I would have said he was in their tier.
wranslide says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 7:41 pm
Dr John. I do not get your response to Nath. Are you saying that the individual known as the Munster did not rob your family of millions?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
No
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1859 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 4:31 pm
You don’t want to progress treaty? Why not?
The Greens’ hitherto discipline has morphed into indiscipline.
[‘Greens Senator Lidia Thorpe has cleared the way for a split with her colleagues on the Indigenous Voice to parliament in a formal deal in the party room on Wednesday that gives her free rein to vote against the proposal while others give it their support.
The agreement is almost certain to lead to a divided Greens position on the crucial question in a referendum at the end of this year unless Thorpe gains an assurance from the federal government that Indigenous sovereignty will be guaranteed as part of the Voice.
The outcome breaks with the party’s usual demand for total discipline when voting on major policy but was agreed after an online meeting on Wednesday afternoon that ran for several hours to consider Thorpe’s criticism of the Voice and her call for a treaty with First Australians.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/lidia-thorpe-given-free-rein-to-vote-against-voice-but-greens-likely-to-back-it-20230125-p5cfek.html
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 6:56 pm
Arky @ #1962 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 6:51 pm
I look forward to Thorpe simultaneously campaigning against the Voice and then if it falls to claim that its failure demonstrates Australia is a racist country.
Got no time for wreckers and she’s a wrecker. Nothing constructive. This isn’t even letting the perfect be the enemy of the good like the Greens on the ESG.
You’d be pretty filthy with the 40% of Labor voters who aren’t committed to the Yes vote then …?
____________
At least the ALP voters who aren’t necessarily committed to Yes (some are are Undecided) aren’t public figures doing their best to undermine the Voice.
Unlike some non-Labor public figures…
Oakeshott Country says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 7:09 pm
The man called Bob gets the Job!
(Even though you are supposed to be General Secretary for 5 years before getting into the lollies)
____________
A trailer of a doco on Bob’s life…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ptmP1lziJw4
Alpo
“ I am no military expert, but I bet that a war cannot be won from the air.”
———————————————————————————————
Agree entirely, this is a truism.
That atomic bombs certainly didn’t walk to Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Senator Murray Watt
@MurrayWatt
·
3h
So the Greens Party hasn’t decided if it supports Voice to Parliament, but its First Nations spokesperson says she will probably oppose it. ♂️ Btw I explicitly told Senator Thorpe at Estimates that the Voice doesn’t cede sovereignty. She just wants to oppose it, no matter what.
WeWantPaul says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 8:10 pm
That atomic bombs certainly didn’t walk to Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
____________
Historian Paul Ham in “Hiroshima Nagasaki” assiduously researches the timing of events like the atomic bombings, various Japanese leadership meetings and the Soviet declaration of war on Japan and invasion of Japan’s mainland Asia colonies. He concludes that the atomic bombs were not the main cause of Japan’s surrender, fear of rapid Soviet conquests (including possible moves into the Home Islands) was.
Cronus says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 8:04 pm
Alpo
“ I am no military expert, but I bet that a war cannot be won from the air.”
———————————————————————————————
Agree entirely, this is a truism.
_________
Calling a post a truism is not a compliment. It means that the author has added nothing of interest and shouldn’t have even bothered.
Terry Carney’s appearance before the Royal Commission was remarkable an exemplary Australian in stark contrast to Morrison
nathsays:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 8:20 pm
Cronus says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 8:04 pm
Alpo
“ I am no military expert, but I bet that a war cannot be won from the air.”
———————————————————————————————
Agree entirely, this is a truism.
_________
Calling a post a truism is not a compliment. It means that the author has added nothing of interest and shouldn’t have even bothered.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
PARDON?
[‘Jacinda Ardern is likely to require an unprecedented level of security for a former New Zealand prime minister given the extent of the abuse and threats she faced while in office.
Ongoing police protection for retired leaders is unusual in New Zealand, where politicians are able to revert to life as a private citizen once they retire. But Ardern, who announced her shock departure last week and formally resigned on Wednesday, was the target of some of the darkest and most extreme online abuse, according to research by the University of Auckland.
“The vitriol is, quite frankly, off the charts,” said Paul Buchanan, a former intelligence and defence policy analyst who was a consultant to US security agencies. “The threats to her will not go away simply because she steps down. Some of these people are capable of taking violent action against her.”
Buchanan believes New Zealand’s Diplomatic Protection Service, a specialised arm of the police responsible for security, will assess the risk to Ardern and her family and provide 24-hour security for the foreseeable future.’]
https://www.smh.com.au/world/oceania/ardern-may-need-ongoing-security-as-true-extent-of-threats-is-revealed-20230125-p5cfeu.html
Little wonder she resigned prematurely.
Despite Shellbell’s goss, the Young Australian of the Year is a footballer
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Awer_Mabil
The PwC matter dates from 2014
I note the defence of PwC by Sukkar, who was in the employ of PwC in the mid 2000’s for a short period of time
In review of such matters I was one who asked the question by what process the individual, in the cross hairs given the outcome, came to be appointed to that position – and by who
Made more enemies than friends obviously particularly among the HR types who were never otherwise held accountable
What you used to see in the peer review days were people promoted past their capacities
So it was not so much the individual – it was how they came to be in those positions in the first instance
If you have someone pumping their own tyres by referring to privileged information there is a character problem – and HR should be all over the characteristics of those they are appointing to most Senior positions
So, in 2014 PwC had a problem
And across my time I had first hand knowledge of certain practitioners at PwC who I held in the highest esteem
There was confidentiality – and it was never breached (and, all these years on is still not, there being recollections from the past you can only reminisce over with a very select few people)
It comes with the territory – still
The other accountability is those who received the advice
Did they then provide privileged information for gain – and were there any kick backs
Or did they approach the Senior Partners saying they have concerns
These matters have their own trails and they can be very interesting
Just to act against the individual is not appropriate
Snappy Tom
“ Anyway, closer to the time, I’ll arrange with Mr Bowe to send my email address to you.”
All good. Hopefully it’ll be somewhat cooler by then too.
Australian of the Year is Taryn Brumford from SA – campaigner against body shaming
Good to see.
Maybe a winner from the Arts next year.
Paul, no offence but I occasionally have difficulty in following your lawyerly argument.
Where’s the redoubtable Cat tonight?
sprocket_ says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 8:42 pm
Australian of the Year is Taryn Brumford from SA – campaigner against body shaming
中华人民共和国
This is a good choice. I’m no “oil painting “ but don’t let it get to me. My two daughters on the other hand and the pressure generally on young women to conform to the standard shape is enormous. Well done.
I’m in Mongolia at the moment and heading for the South Gobi tomorrow. Minus 27 on the menu. Dr John I’m putting you in charge whilst I am out of range!
Keep safe one and all.
[‘Body-image campaigner Taryn Brumfitt, who directed Embrace, named 2023 Australian of the Year.’]
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-01-25/2023-australian-of-the-year-awards-winners/101892294
UpNorth
Snuggle up.
We saw a Mongolian throat singer perform last Friday night.
“Historian Paul Ham in “Hiroshima Nagasaki” assiduously researches the timing of events like the atomic bombings, various Japanese leadership meetings and the Soviet declaration of war on Japan and invasion of Japan’s mainland Asia colonies. He concludes that the atomic bombs were not the main cause of Japan’s surrender, fear of rapid Soviet conquests (including possible moves into the Home Islands) was.”
Interesting theory, and paints the ‘lets kill millions of civilians in the most horrible way’ decision in an ever worse light.
shellbell says:
Wednesday, January 25, 2023 at 8:55 pm
UpNorth
Snuggle up.
We saw a Mongolian throat singer perform last Friday night.
中华人民共和国
The throat singers are enthralling. It’s a wonderful art which fortunately the Russians couldn’t exterminate.
Horse Milk Wine plus lots of Vodka will be on the menu. Thanks for wishes SB.
“Just to act against the individual is not appropriate”
I tend to agree.
Also if it was 2014 it is almost certainly pre diverted profits tax, but it might have been early BEPS negotiation stuff.
Of all the firms I’ve dealt with PwC has more than the others been challenged in technical ability and integrity. Ironically the gentleman in trouble was technically a class above.
In the early 60s, I recall that around six Housing Commission dwellings were built in Warrarong, south of Wollongong, to house the indigenous. They wrecked their homes in a short time. No one seemed to know why. Nothing much has changed in circa 60 years.
“In the early 60s, I recall that around six Housing Commission dwellings were built in Warrarong, south of Wollongong, to house the indigenous. They wrecked their homes in a short time. No one seemed to know why. Nothing much has changed in circa 60 years.”
Not a lot has changed on the white racist side, for sure, on their side there is a whole lot that has changed for the good.
well at least nsw labor can solve a preselection quickly unlike the so called leading factional leader in liberals matt kean his key factions member in upper house peter poulos is half way down the ticket and cris rath will loose his seat while the right got up netasha mclaron jones who has four years left on her term not even alixandra smiths faverite natulie ward got to run again failed in davidson would hardly be a well known name but aparently would save the liberals with female voters people would struggle to name her and the nats deputy leader bronie tayler is behind ben franklin on the ticket
Mavis @ #1910 Wednesday, January 25th, 2023 – 8:51 pm
Sorry, Mavis, I’ve been at a meeting. We’ve got a NSW State election to win. 😀
desbite being deputy nsw nats leader she is behind junier minister benn franklin on the ticket and mclafron jones spot is tackin up buy alex hawke lutenant farlow kean has not managed to get a single candadate up in a winable spot even failing on the upper house ticket where the right and hawke got there members up kean does not seem to be a great faction leader desbite the spin of smith